Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[agentzero82 10]

Okay, just so you know, going forward you need to post in English.

 

I would suggest first you need to work out what you are looking for. If you know that, then perhaps we can identify a way of charting it.

 

error in the copy paste

[TheNegotiator 13]

error in the copy paste

 

No worries. Anyway, write down exactly what you want to see and then post it here and maybe we can look at it.

[agentzero82 10]

No worries. Anyway, write down exactly what you want to see and then post it here and maybe we can look at it.

 

ok...volevo solo parlare di sp

[joshdance 10]

Do you get the same result in different browsers?

 

Have not tried, but using Chrome, and it has always worked before now...

[steve46 12]

Couple of nice pre-open trades today and one "layup"

 

The layup is characterized as a low risk entry based a test of a number (a time based pivot) coinciding with a pending econ report....in this case the test occurred at 64.50

 

In a momentum based market, even without volume we think of this as a gift trade.

[joshdance 10]

Couple of nice pre-open trades today and one "layup"

 

The layup is characterized as a low risk entry based a test of a number (a time based pivot) coinciding with a pending econ report....in this case the test occurred at 64.50

 

In a momentum based market, even without volume we think of this as a gift trade.

 

What time based pivot gave 64.50 significance? I also bought 65.50, and got out on the news jump at 70.50.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hi everybody. Quiet I see on the thread yesterday. Here's a little recap chart. Remember, Big Ben is at 10am.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Very tight uptrend there into Bernanke which broke as comments started coming down. See how it initially tested the prior session VPOC at 74.00 but ignored it. Next stop(if low is taken) - 72.00,70.75 and 69.00.

 

[steve46 12]

Busy day today...The 10 min chart shows the previous high at 76.75 and the previous low at

64.50

 

This market has shown a well documented tendency to take out highs and lows by a few ticks then reverse...so it is relatively easy to wait for the extremes and take a shot

 

Today you have both opportunities...really a gift day.

 

and Tom if you visit today, the benefit of leaving a small piece in the trade in case it runs is well displayed here...if one simply got on board at the previous high and left ONE (1) contract in place, you had a nice day with very little risk....if you did the same thing at the other extreme on the long side, you now have the choice of either taking that additional contract off as price revisits the origin of the long or letting it go in case we get a true reversal up from here. Either way the result is much better with that process in place than if you just took the whole trade and left the arena, and the secondary benefit is that it motivates you to keep your head in the game.

Edited February 29, 2012 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

Busy day today...The 10 min chart shows the previous high at 76.75 and the previous low at

64.50

 

This market has shown a well documented tendency to take out highs and lows by a few ticks then reverse...so it is relatively easy to wait for the extremes and take a shot

 

Today you have both opportunities...really a gift day.

 

Each to their own Steve, but I viewed it in a slightly different way. If you look at a chart, that high was made right on Bernanke starting to talk at 10am. Fade that if you like, but to me I didn't want to take that chance. There have been other chances subsequently including the 63.75's however, if you look at the chart below, perhaps the easiest opp so far(imho) was the short at the low volume from yesterday I have highlighted.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I forgot to mention that the reason it was pretty easy was that price action on the 2500v chart. Plus I always like to look at what happens after a decent move like we saw on retracement to 38.2%- which unsurprisingly was right there. But you could have taken it without the fib ret.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just came into some res there at the first pullback balance and now formed a new vpoc. Still in the up trend of the move for now though and pushing through a little. Imo I wouldn't be surprised to see a move to test today's low volume/VWAP area around 1370 and then see what the market is saying.

 

[steve46 12]

Each to their own Steve, but I viewed it in a slightly different way. If you look at a chart, that high was made right on Bernanke starting to talk at 10am. Fade that if you like, but to me I didn't want to take that chance. There have been other chances subsequently including the 63.75's however, if you look at the chart below, perhaps the easiest opp so far(imho) was the short at the low volume from yesterday I have highlighted.

 

 

Yes absolutely nothing wrong with that...however lets be clear about what we are saying...

 

For me its about doing the research and once I see a behavior I am willing to bet on it....not blindly but in a reasonable way...for example

 

When price tests an extreme I am able to read the tape...either volume comes in to support continuation or it doesn't....its that simple...based on what you are saying, you can't do that with your system and you are left with another option as you have shown...perfectly fine of course, but those are the differences.

 

To me its all very interesting and shows in part why markets move as they do....

[joshdance 10]

Steve, did you miss post 1906 above? No answer required just asking.

 

For those interested, we are at 14.25 range, with a 20d median of 9.75, and we are 45% above 20d median volume at this point in the day. Premarket volume of about 340K was a good indicator of the potential for a higher volume day today.

[steve46 12]

Yes I did miss the post

 

The mistake is mine, I wasn't supposed to post that pivot

 

Sorry

 

Steve

[joshdance 10]

If you look at a chart, that high was made right on Bernanke starting to talk at 10am.

 

FWIW, Bernanke wasn't given the floor until at least 10 or 15 minutes after 10am, if I recall... had to listen to two senators get a jab or two in first. By the time Bernanke opened his mouth, the market had already sold off from the high print.

 

What really did it was the nasdaq. Dow opens above 13K, buy buy buy--but the target was 3K on the nasdaq... 3000.11 printed, and immediately it was down from there. No coincidence.

Edited March 1, 2012 by joshdance

[TheNegotiator 13]

FWIW, Bernanke wasn't given the floor until at least 10 or 15 minutes after 10am, if I recall... had to listen to two senators get a jab or two in first. By the time Bernanke opened his mouth, the market had already sold off from the high print.

 

What really did it was the nasdaq. Dow opens above 13K, buy buy buy--but the target was 3K on the nasdaq... 3000.11 printed, and immediately it was down from there. No coincidence.

 

Yeah okay, fair enough he didnt start talking at 10am but the report was released at 10am and this is when key parts started streaming down the newswires. It is interesting though that the Nasdaq had just reached 3000 at the same time, although if it were in the vicinity just prior to the release, it's unsurprising it turned from here. Think about it. If you were buying Nasdaq stocks just below the cash index value of 3000 and there was a big release due, do you:

 

A- keep buying regardless

 

B- slow down/cover a little and then see what the release is before acting more

 

Whatever anyone believes to be the reason it sold off, the fact is that it did. This is the most salient point for a day trader. Personally, I wouldn't enter a new position at the time of a big release and wouldn't want to hold any position which wasn't well onside into it.

[TheNegotiator 13]

We've had a slightly better read on Initial Jobless already today, but it's important to remember that at 10am we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending due for release. Yesterday, although there was a decent sell-off, ES didn't close on its lows and the uptrend still remains. If you look at my chart, the thing that really stands out in my mind is the profile for the last 3 days and how the 64 area has become potentially pivotal. At the moment, we are closer to the 69 area although by open that could well change. We are also on course to show a high volume overnight session. Possibly this is telling us we could break either today or soon and possibly not. I would think that at some point today given the significance I believe 64's hold, we could well see at least a test of this price. But who really knows right?

 

Anyway, here's the chart and good trading to all today

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

We are also on course to show a high volume overnight session. [/img]

 

okay maybe not that high ~360k

[TheNegotiator 13]

52.4 ism

 

-0.1% cons spend

[steve46 12]

Today's open was unremarkable....very average....the attached chart shows some arrows that may serve as landmarks...the left most green arrow is the open....some time later the second arrow shows what I call the "opening range". At the top of that opening range we have a test of Value at 71.25....Because that test occurs a bit too early in the session at 6:36am, I do not take it....(had it occurred several minutes later I would have)....

 

Price then comes back down to test a demand node and in the process it creates a potential higher low (the next green arrow)...scan left and you see a line where price has previously tested....the timing is crucial here...at 6:45 exactly I READ THE TAPE AND TAKE THE ENTRY LONG....I want to hold this entry until either A) my stop loss is hit or B) two minutes prior to the economic report....at that point my rule set calls for me to exit with whatever profit I have.

 

I exit that trade at 6:59:30 as price tests the bottom of a supply node...

 

Negative economic report, and price waterfalls down to previous demand....the spike at the bottom shows where buyers have come in to take a stand..for approximately 4 minutes buy & sell orders fire off...we read the tape and re-enter at 67.75...very poor entry but thats how it goes sometimes...we take the trade and hold looking for a reversal....20 minutes later we are at the top of a supply node so that is where you get off the train....

 

Thats it for the morning session.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Today's open was unremarkable....very average....the attached chart shows some arrows that may serve as landmarks...the left most green arrow is the open....some time later the second arrow shows what I call the "opening range". At the top of that opening range we have a test of Value at 71.25....Because that test occurs a bit too early in the session at 6:36am, I do not take it....(had it occurred several minutes later I would have)....

 

Price then comes back down to test a demand node and in the process it creates a potential higher low (the next green arrow)...scan left and you see a line where price has previously tested....the timing is crucial here...at 6:45 exactly I READ THE TAPE AND TAKE THE ENTRY LONG....I want to hold this entry until either A) my stop loss is hit or B) two minutes prior to the economic report....at that point my rule set calls for me to exit with whatever profit I have.

 

I exit that trade at 6:59:30 as price tests the bottom of a supply node...

 

Negative economic report, and price waterfalls down to previous demand....the spike at the bottom shows where buyers have come in to take a stand..for approximately 4 minutes buy & sell orders fire off...we read the tape and re-enter at 67.75...very poor entry but thats how it goes sometimes...we take the trade and hold looking for a reversal....20 minutes later we are at the top of a supply node so that is where you get off the train....

 

Thats it for the morning session.

 

Sorry, did I miss something? You said you wanted to exit either when you stop was hit or 2mins before the release, so why did you exit 30secs before? Btw I think we need to use EST in the thread going forward so it's more clear for everyone. The other thing is that I also agree that it's important to "READ THE TAPE" as you put it. However, for any other users who might be interested in this, it isn't anything magical. It's simply watching the balance and flow of orders at specific points to see if the market is currently favouring an entry where you have identified potential. Either way, you might find yourself in a position where you had been on the right side of "the tape" and yet you lose. That is also important information though.

[joshdance 10]

Steve, in your chart posted, I count 28 ticks of shaded blue 'supply and demand nodes' and 25 ticks not shaded. With so many places to potentially buy and sell, doesn't that get confusing?

 

Also, you said that the market tested "value" at 71.25 just after the open-- what is this based on?

[steve46 12]

Sorry, did I miss something? You said you wanted to exit either when you stop was hit or 2mins before the release, so why did you exit 30secs before? Btw I think we need to use EST in the thread going forward so it's more clear for everyone. The other thing is that I also agree that it's important to "READ THE TAPE" as you put it. However, for any other users who might be interested in this, it isn't anything magical. It's simply watching the balance and flow of orders at specific points to see if the market is currently favouring an entry where you have identified potential. Either way, you might find yourself in a position where you had been on the right side of "the tape" and yet you lose. That is also important information though.

 

Yes you are correct, sometimes I don't do the exact right thing....absolutely correct to point that out

 

As regards tape reading, I find it provides a significant edge over simply reacting to the chart. Among other things tape reading gives me an indication of when and how other participants are deciding to enter the market in response to time and price, and most importantly I can see whether a bid is held or not....as far as I can tell there is no other way to see that.

 

What I find is that a person needs to have conviction...and that comes with experience and skill. Some days I have it, some days not so much.

Edited March 1, 2012 by steve46

[steve46 12]

Josh for me previous value is found between 1362.75 and 1371.25.....

 

and I simply use my system rules to determine which of my nodes are active and in play on a given day.