Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

Trade I didn't take this morning:

 

I want to post this with the reason behind why this was a Legit setup. I do not always take these..since I am descretionary and I prefer to take them around a report where there might be more participation and follow through, etc.. not a rigid rule but I am descretionary soo coffe first..

 

Globex IBH 64.50 and Yest high just below, etc...

 

Long 7:34ish @ 65.00 ish... the above were some of the support for the trade..one of the things against it was no volume/delta. also GBX S/L @ 63.75 which miight get ticked so risk below that if we don't get traction. Also Open not too far off, etc.

 

So I just watch.. possible 67.50 objective..just a scalp and NOT taken..

 

As 007 said "Stirred Not Taken."

Edited February 24, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

BTW: I'd thought I'd throw in an old trading saying I first heard from CBOT Ag traders for your amusement: :haha: "Got a Hunch, Bet a Bunch."

 

Yeah, don't do that. It's probably what the older guys used to tell noobs before squeezing them out! Lol. No seriously that's not funny

 

Considering the strength of yesterday I would suspect that there might be a push beyond 1365.75 current RTH high. The ETH high is 69.50. For this to happen, I'd want a reaction at 59.00, 60.75, 62.50, 64.00 or 65.75 depending on where and how we open. Like Tom said, we have a mich(f) and then new home sales early on in the session so it's possible we could need to see those before going for it. On the other hand, it could retrace somewhat although if this is the case, I would reckon it'll have a few of those longs from yesterday sitting uncomfortably. Interesting how crude oil broke higher yesterday too. A retrace through 108.00 towards 107.00(broadly speaking) might drag on ES, but who knows for certain. It's worth noting anyway. Euro is strong too at the mo. Possibly if it remains so today, they'll want to test 1.3500 I'm thinking.

 

Anyway, I here's a number of charts to explain

 

 

 

 

[roztom 10]

N: Yeah, don't do that. It's probably what the older guys used to tell noobs before squeezing them out! Lol. No seriously that's not funny

 

Well, I posted it from a nostolgic point of view for traders here who haven't been exposed to Floor Traders... this just one of hte quips they said to each other..

[joshdance 10]

This week and Friday of last week really developed the 59s. In those four days (not counting Monday this week) we have 3 VPOCs right next to each other in 59.25, 59.50, and 59.75. Particularly yesterday the value really built up there before it moved higher. I would not be surprised to see 59s again today before moving up, if the market is to move up today.

[TheNegotiator 13]

N: Yeah, don't do that. It's probably what the older guys used to tell noobs before squeezing them out! Lol. No seriously that's not funny

 

Well, I posted it from a nostolgic point of view for traders here who haven't been exposed to Floor Traders... this just one of hte quips they said to each other..

 

Lol, yeah I know

 

This week and Friday of last week really developed the 59s. In those four days (not counting Monday this week) we have 3 VPOCs right next to each other in 59.25, 59.50, and 59.75. Particularly yesterday the value really built up there before it moved higher. I would not be surprised to see 59s again today before moving up, if the market is to move up today.

 

Very true, although given that we closed on the highs, it's possible that the breakout has already begun(which originated from the 59's).

 

The other thing to note here again is just how small the o/n range is at 6.25 pts again with vol little over 200k right now.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So far, not such a convincing open and right on the upper end of 4-day balance. Not too surprising given small o/n range and figs around 10am(9:55am for mich). What it does mean is that there could potentially be a good move later on (maybe)

[TheNegotiator 13]

So the question was going to be(although posting the chart isn't something I seem to be able to do quickly) can it hold the 63's and get back above open then make new highs? Remember figs are due in a few...

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

headline nhs down mom but only due to upward previous rev. so good fig along with mich. doesn't necessarily mean it'll go bid tho

[TheNegotiator 13]

awesome 3pt range so far!!

[TheNegotiator 13]

keeping an eye on that 6e(for those with futures only feeds)

[TheNegotiator 13]

Josh, have you got any vol stats for us? I make it around 76% at the moment.

[TheNegotiator 13]

1159 contracts on the offer @ 3480 is 6E omg!!

[roztom 10]

Thumb Twiddle..

 

I only have had one decent setup this morning and unfortunately it was in front of the reports.. @ 64.00 so what was the point & with the open Close up above 66.50 I didn't see the point... also a secondary entry at 65.00 still no point...

 

So I'm waiting for a rotation which may take all day or not at all... 70 - 72 ish up above so it could be worthwhile .. longs don't seem to be concerned at the moment -sellers may have left the building.. for now

[TheNegotiator 13]

see if the open/vpoc can hold...(64.50)

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thumb Twiddle..

 

I only have had one decent setup this morning and unfortunately it was in front of the reports.. @ 64.00 so what was the point & with the open Close up above 66.50 I didn't see the point... also a secondary entry at 65.00 still no point...

 

So I'm waiting for a rotation which may take all day or not at all... 70 - 72 ish up above so it could be worthwhile .. longs don't seem to be concerned at the moment -sellers may have left the building.. for now

 

I took it just above the lows on that action at 63's ahead of the week open/overnight low. Felt it was worth the risk as wasn't looking like we were going to get an exciting day- of course that could change. Out now (at 65.50)as suspected something was going on. NQ wasn't having it plus funny guy @ 1.3480 offer in 6E. Still could go later. I think if the high is in, it's bad news for bulls and there's more of a chance to correct. Failed break = strong reversal (often)

[TheNegotiator 13]

Remember, if it takes the low we have 60.75 and 59.00 as possible strong support. No guarantees but I'd think there might be at least a few buyers around those levels. Also, take a look at how balanced the profile is so far. It's certainly conceivable we get a neutral with extension either side of the IB. Just a thought.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Crude btw tested and reversed from 108.99 and is testing close to the 108's now which I mentioned earlier. If it does break, it might be useful to see whether ES goes with it or not.

[TheNegotiator 13]

6E has been propped up twice on exactly the 1st push higher (9:54am @1.3459) - samebut reversed with DX(dollar index)

[roztom 10]

I did take a 64.00 long... not crazy about it but grinding my teeth..might dump it if we don't get going...:missy:

 

Edit: I dumped it just after this post...watching...

[TheNegotiator 13]

I did take a 64.00 long... not crazy about it but grinding my teeth..might dump it if we don't get going...:missy:

 

Hmm yeah I don't know. I'm on the sidelines for now as I want to see what happens on these moves lower in 6E and CL. There's some support below, but on a day which has so far shown very little activity, I'd be loathed to get taken for a large stop. Anyway, anything can happen. It's also quite possible given lack of drive, 'locals' could try to take some stops (or weak longs) out on a test lower.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I did take a 64.00 long... not crazy about it but grinding my teeth..might dump it if we don't get going...:missy:

 

Edit: I dumped it just after this post...watching...

 

Ah, fair play. I always say that scratching is something to avoid at all cost before you take the trade, but if the market then tells you different when you're in it, there's no shame in bailing.

[TheNegotiator 13]

See how that 63.00 where selling was absorbed before is still playing its part?

[roztom 10]

Minding the Store here: Went long again at 64.00 no problem for me... afer giving up a tick on the previous 64.00..

 

If we can come out of this range then 70''s are possible as previously posted... I am keeping short leashes on these since we are currently in a range but currently the bias is still North..

 

Also something to note and maybe take a look at your clock and the range expansion on the 1/2 hours...

 

 

Steve: Is there anything to this?.

[roztom 10]

Ah, fair play. I always say that scratching is something to avoid at all cost before you take the trade, but if the market then tells you different when you're in it, there's no shame in bailing.

 

N: Not sure if I read this right...avoiding a scratch before a trade.. ?

[roztom 10]

I want to update my 64.00 long just for a little strategy... There is a close at 66.50 that has not been closed... missed it by 1 tick..I "suspect" we will test the current HOD 66.25 and possibly 1 tick it..so I am targeting a scale there for 2.25 pts of course might take all day or never to get there..

 

Also if we can clear this congestion I "think" 70.75 area might be possible..again this may be a tough day if we can't move out of here ..