Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Did you guys take Tuesday off also? Strange to hear so many crickets here...

 

Sometimes silence is good also - gives me a chance to review and reflect.

 

Regards,

 

CYP

 

Lol. I didn't trade yesterday after long weekend. Looks like we failed a test higher and closed pretty much on the 2day vpoc at 1359.75. That area and possibly 61.50 could be important today. If 55's are taken I think there'll be at least a challenge of 52.25. A move higher and we could see tests of 64, 65.75 on the way to testing 69.50, 71, 72.50. Need obviously to see what goes on early in RTH, but also there could well be more balancing to do around this area before a move one way or the other. 1355.75 yesterday was a poor low in that it was tested on 3 separate occasions.

 

Anyway, here's a chart and good luck today!

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Big money is made from big moves. Small moves cover past losses and business costs.

 

Big money makes love to beautiful women, small money doesn't.

 

The Dude abides.

 

Tom said it and I'll repeat it. Yes, if you are a trend trader. If you are not(and I would think many here on the e-mini thread are not), then this is simply untrue. In my experience, it is "the sum of all parts" that makes a non-trend trader successful or not. It's true that holding a trade for a big move is good if it comes off for you, yet unless you plan to trade like this all the time, even if it does work a few times, it'll play with your mind. That's why a good number of people use the method of holding "runners". This is simply put, a percentage of any given trade which is held beyond targets indefinitely based on activity.

 

Anyway, last point. I think that there is a real danger of the inexperienced trader getting sucked into mixing different strategies "on the fly" without any real plan to deal with the scenario. It's very simple, but it can be destructive for some.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Brief update for your consideration...

 

[roztom 10]

Tom said it and I'll repeat it. Yes, if you are a trend trader. If you are not(and I would think many here on the e-mini thread are not), then this is simply untrue. In my experience, it is "the sum of all parts" that makes a non-trend trader successful or not. It's true that holding a trade for a big move is good if it comes off for you, yet unless you plan to trade like this all the time, even if it does work a few times, it'll play with your mind. That's why a good number of people use the method of holding "runners". This is simply put, a percentage of any given trade which is held beyond targets indefinitely based on activity.

 

Anyway, last point. I think that there is a real danger of the inexperienced trader getting sucked into mixing different strategies "on the fly" without any real plan to deal with the scenario. It's very simple, but it can be destructive for some.

 

I want to add one comment..having a large win is a very "exciting" emotional event... When I managed a large piece of a Fund we had substantial volatility in our positions since we were "Trend Following" - it was part of our plan..and model...

 

I had to learn not to allow myself to get too excited when I would come in and see a surge in open trade equity... Inevitably it would be offset by the shorter term swings. It is all a function of timeframe, trade management and a process built on the anticipated volatility.

 

What the market giveth it can take-away as it rotates in the larger timeframe.

 

Newbies, IMHO should not be blinded by "greed" but havve a solid plan that allows them to become consistently profitable.. The timeframe must align with your personality and psycology.. all the elements that have been discussed here and elsewhere...must align..

 

It is no easy task to "own" your trade plan since most of us probably start out trying to mimic someone elses...

Edited February 22, 2012 by roztom

[TheNegotiator 13]

I want to add one comment..having a large win is a very "exciting" emotional event... When I managed a large piece of a Fund we had substantial volatility in our positions since we were "Trend Following" - it was part of our plan..and model...

 

I had to learn not to allow myself to get too excited when I would come in and see a surge in open trade equity... Inevitably it would be offset by the shorter term swings. It is all a function of timeframe, trade management and a process built on the anticipated volatility.

 

What the market giveth it can take-away as it rotates in the larger timeframe.

 

Newbies, IMHO should not be blinded by "greed" but havve a solid plan that allows them to become consistently profitable.. The timeframe must align with your personality and psycology.. all the elements that have been discussed here and elsewhere...must align..

 

It is no easy task to "own" your trade plan since most of us probably start out trying to mimic someone elses...

 

Big big potential psychological aspects. Owning your own plan is often harder for noobs if they follow someone else because there is so much detail that is never revealed to them(not necessarily an intentional act). This is why it's my contention that the best learning exercise for a new trader is to shadow a successful trader. Unfortunately for most, the opportunities to do this are somewhat limited.

[CYP 10]

Brief update for your consideration...

 

 

N,

 

As of 1400EST, looks like we're working towards previous VPOC, as per your chart. Looking for an up-close as we work back towards the 60 level...(this response is biased because I'm sitting long since 55...)

 

Thanks for the charts and commentaries - as usual!

 

Regards,

 

CYP

[TheNegotiator 13]

Quite possibly CYP. Broke below yesterday/friday's low and now back in range so test higher is likely imo. However, that doesn't rule out a neutral day either.

[roztom 10]

Quite possibly CYP. Broke below yesterday/friday's low and now back in range so test higher is likely imo. However, that doesn't rule out a neutral day either.

 

N: I also considered the possibility of a Neutral Day... I thought the untested lows would get taken but the move down has been like a stick in mud... Also we had a Neutral Day Tuesday so since they come in three's (I've been told) I thought we would see a little more fight...

 

I have a MLVN @ 53.25 and a CLVN @ 52.25..

 

Todays low was 53.00 right at the MLVN 53.25...always blows my mind...

 

I still haven't gotten comfortable trying to step in front of the train..

 

Tonight in GBX I am doing some scalping.. @ 19:20:59ish I I went long at 53.75 against the 53.25 MLVN.. of course now what

 

Edit: I am targeting 55.00 & 56.25..

[roztom 10]

GBX Trade Update..

 

It is now 9:03 cst.. and Both trade objectives were met... Scaled long from 53.75

 

1. 55.00

2. 56.00 It was initially 56.25 we ticked it several times glad for the 56.00..want to get some sleep

 

Total Scalp.. 1.25 + 2.25 = 3.50 pts..

 

As usual for me the first target was high probability the second a bit more of a reach... I suspect I would get the 56.25 if I wanted to wait but not worth the time...

[Gary Fullett 10]

Emini S&P daily, 60 minute, and spread

 

 

 

[roztom 10]

Big big potential psychological aspects. Owning your own plan is often harder for noobs if they follow someone else because there is so much detail that is never revealed to them(not necessarily an intentional act). This is why it's my contention that the best learning exercise for a new trader is to shadow a successful trader. Unfortunately for most, the opportunities to do this are somewhat limited.

 

N: Even when you do it it usually doesn't work... I studied MP with Steilmeyer as you know and I couldn't do squat with it... I went to umpteen seminars and courses, books, Tapes, everything but the kitchen sink, software, programming, etc.

 

Courses at the Exchange when I first started...

 

I think other than time in and research the most relevant course I ever took was in classical bar charting.. I learned charting ( :haha:They called it technical analysis) at the CME and all we had was a chart book, strait edge and a pencil.. The text was Edwards & McGee the basic Bible of charting...

 

Trading is so individualistic that even if someone shows you what they do I think unless it is pretty much plug & play it won't work...

 

Look at all the systems, etc that are posted...I'm sure they have value for ideas but even if they are legit, very few can do anything with them. IMHO

[TheNegotiator 13]

Look at all the systems, etc that are posted...I'm sure they have value for ideas but even if they are legit, very few can do anything with them. IMHO

 

Absolutely. People can read and read and read all they can get hold of and still come up short. That's because they are parroting authors to some extent rather than having deep understanding and instinctual application.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Gary, I replicated what you did with your chart and added a little. I can't say I'm especially keen on your lower line for the full daily chart just as I'm not keen on the upper blue line in mine. I think the point is here that should be quite clear to most, is that we are still well within the fairly tight upward trend for now. Any change to this should be pretty obvious when it does come along and at this point you shouldn't be fading directional moves as much anyway.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so overnight so far we have tested both sides and are currently in the middle. Figures are out at 8:30 and 10:00am so we might try to break one side after. Anyway, here's an early chart for anyone who's interested.

 

[roztom 10]

I took a nible on the short side right after the 7:30cst numbers against the CLVN 58.50 Short 57.75 & covered for a small loss... The trade may still work but..

 

Here is why I covered:

 

1. Delta continuing to rise.

2. NO real rejection of CLVN.

3. Mkt making Higher Highs/Higher Lows.

4. Mkt seems to be drifting.

 

I was looking for 2 pts and might get it in fact as I write this the mkt is beginning to break towards my target @ 8:07cst... 55.75 /still :crap:

 

Followed my plan

[joshdance 10]

Hi all,

 

Not at my computer screen today so doing this remotely with no real good tools here to work with, but it seems that value built lower yesterday. At 64 there is a cluster of volume that should fail if we are to go further down. I am targeting 49.50 for an initial downside minor support but real support probably won't kick in until 35 or so. If we break 64 and hold above it, up up it goes as it has been. Just my

[astralmarket 10]

Absolutely. People can read and read and read all they can get hold of and still come up short. That's because they are parroting authors to some extent rather than having deep understanding and instinctual application.

 

Agree with you and Roztom. It is all one's own practice, deep understanding and a real will to get into the heart of it. If we notice many successful people in their careers fail in trading for they take it lightly and "believe" it is just a play.

 

Markets have reached a sophistication point where any novice or hobby players are bound to be thrown out mercilessly unless one puts in real efforts.

[TheNegotiator 13]

For longs:- Can we hold back above yesterday's low if we move back down right now? Can we then get back above and hold Tuesday's low 55.75? Can we then take the current balance VPOC (3-day) at 59.00? Can we move above teh 61.50 and take out the minor retracement trend high? Shorts likely want some reaction at or before 59.00 or possibly 61.50 by my reckoning, but it's clearly best to watch the market for what does happen.

[Gary Fullett 10]

Gary, I replicated what you did with your chart and added a little. I can't say I'm especially keen on your lower line for the full daily chart just as I'm not keen on the upper blue line in mine. I think the point is here that should be quite clear to most, is that we are still well within the fairly tight upward trend for now. Any change to this should be pretty obvious when it does come along and at this point you shouldn't be fading directional moves as much anyway.

 

 

 

Thanks for your input. The lower, up-channel line I drew is simply a parallel line to the reverse trend line which the market has respected for a while. The fact that the market has respected this reverse trend line, shows that up-trend channel line is a valid one. Having said that, to me, the 1334 area in the S&P is an important area that the bulls need to defend before a change of behavior can occur. Since we are hugging that reverse trend line, this inherently shows market strength, but at an overbought condition. An overbought condition does not mean sell, but it does say use caution.

 

Gary

 

 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and off exchange foreign currency products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thanks for your input. The lower, up-channel line I drew is simply a parallel line to the reverse trend line which the market has respected for a while. The fact that the market has respected this reverse trend line, shows that up-trend channel line is a valid one. Having said that, to me, the 1334 area in the S&P is an important area that the bulls need to defend before a change of behavior can occur. Since we are hugging that reverse trend line, this inherently shows market strength, but at an overbought condition. An overbought condition does not mean sell, but it does say use caution.

 

Gary

 

 

 

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, options and off exchange foreign currency products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 

Agreed Gary. One thing I always point out though is that the markets often keep going in these circumstances until all the faders give up. The market is pushing and pushing and everytime traders try to short it right now, they are adding fuel to the fire.

[steve46 12]

Hello

 

Been working on a slightly new look to my charts. The attached is a 45 sec chart showing nice granularity indicative of automated trading in a tight range. The left most arrow shows what I have pointed out many times previous (a basing pattern that preceeds a move up or down)

 

The rest of it is the usual after lunch range just prior to the last hour close action

 

Back to work

 

Steve

[TheNegotiator 13]

Before there was a little server hiccup, this was a chart I was going to post showing why the current highs are at an important area. Pretty self explanatory

 

[roztom 10]

I'm just coming up for air..am flat...

 

I have a pivot MLVN @ 61.50 - 61.75. Of course 62.25 CHVN right above...Key areas..

 

Will be intersting to see if we can clear it otherwise shorts still in control, IMHO (for the moment).

 

:missy:

Edited February 23, 2012 by roztom

[steve46 12]

Very nice day today....with a couple of gift entries....one shortly after the open and two others

in the afternoon

 

The chart is the same as posted earlier...in this one, I simply added arrows as price established a ledge, testing and retesting both value and previous day's high...either way if

a trader wished to take the entries they had a nice little profit with what I would characterize as moderate risk (a 1 point stop would have been fine here).

[roztom 10]

Looks like ES CHVN 70.75 - CLVN 72.50 next area upside and Support 60.50 - 60.75 ish (My Numbers based on CLosing Swing Low) - not traditional I'd say plus yest close, etc...

 

UOM 8:55a & New home Sales 9a cst.

 

Good trading all

 

BTW: I'd thought I'd throw in an old trading saying I first heard from CBOT Ag traders for your amusement: :haha: "Got a Hunch, Bet a Bunch."

Edited February 24, 2012 by roztom