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TheNegotiator

Day Trading the E-mini Futures

By TheNegotiator, in E-mini Futures

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
I took a sim trade long 45.50 earlier, and scaled out 3 for 2.75, 3.50, and 4.00 (posted in real time elsewhere if you need proof) -- it was a nice 50% pullback of the low to the prior high. ON low tested and held beautifully to the tick, and from then on delta has been nicely positive, so no reason not to buy.

 

Lovely... ... :rofl:

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steve46    12

steve46
Posted

Here's a very nice setup for those interested in learning to operate in the Globex market (trading the ES of course)

 

So the concept is simple (the way I like it) and direct (ditto)....you want (I want) to see a market move to wholesale levels (my definition), preferrably gap one way or the other and then test an underlying level where I might see what I call an "algorithmic reversal pattern"....for me this is the safest and highest probability trade

 

On the attached chart what you see is the Globex opens and sits there until Asia opens...at that point what you have is a gap down on news and sentiment.....I take the time to investigate (using my bloomie) and then if the situation looks good I will take that bet

 

In this case we have all the planets lined up the way I like it....price gaps down...I look for a reason and find nothing to make me think we will see continuation (at least not immediately)

the setup I am looking for is a test of A) underlying demand (blue rectangle) and B) Value (the green arrows)

 

As you can this is a decent long entry and if it breaks through 47 half I would simply hold it the DAX open. if it comes back to the entry I will simply take my scale out and leave it at that...

 

Steve

5aa710ccd9553_TodaysGlobexAsiaOpen.thumb.PNG.b02d9e2732758612e47ec7b8be8454a8.PNG

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Josh, are you on beta 8 still? I moved to 9 and just left the value area problem as it shows correctly for my mp vp chart. However, it looks as though the show data feature on the profiles has a bug. Take a look if you have the chance. Cheers!

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Yesterday was pretty lame from the looks of things. No great concensus on value(profile not well defined) and efforts to test the 52.50 low volume price just weren't there. Moody's EU downgrades etc. and crappy Retail Sales read has us opening lower although above 1341.50. Break here and then the important test of balance VPOC at 39.25 is next. A failure to hold could see sellers gather strength for a test of the balance low at 31.75(and then 29.75). However, if we fail to get below 41.50, imho the move lower will be in doubt and this could fuel a move higher at least in the short term.

 

Not rocket science, just considered reasoning.(and it'll probably be wrong anyway. lol!)

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=27424&stc=1&d=1329229671

2012-02-14.thumb.jpg.6e804c1240fa4c4812c61e9b6e63832f.jpg

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
Josh, are you on beta 8 still? I moved to 9 and just left the value area problem as it shows correctly for my mp vp chart. However, it looks as though the show data feature on the profiles has a bug. Take a look if you have the chance. Cheers!

 

What is the bug? With the data in the report or something else?

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted

NO Proof: Just some thoughts on a short I worked a very "logical" setup..

 

Sold against yesterdays Midpoint + GBX VWAP.. First taget/scale 42.00 against MicroLVN 41.50..holding for ? NVPOC 36.00 give or take...

 

Another Give-away CLVN 52.20 was a head banger for the market... over several sessions

 

Anyway that's my take this morning..

 

At 9:19cst: 44.25 is a current developing lvn on the profile and near current mid-point so depending on rotation I "might" scale back in.. or scalp to improve me position.. or just work on my knitting..

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted (edited)
41.50 is a decent balance low vol price though and the price action down there suggested at least temporary low. Above 44.25 wouldn't be good for short positions I'd say aswell.

 

Agree that's my take also..so the 44.25ish area was a good place to add or short with a fail point close by.. very tight risk point... as they say if you're going to take a shot then do it where the risk point is manageable..

 

If we can take out 41.50 Mlvn then things get interesting to downside..we might test it so I am going to scale there and then continue my hold..looking for the Grand Canyon.. 36.00 ish..just a NVPOC

 

Helmet on...

 

Edit: My Comment on NVPOC or any level are just Areas of Interest..not hard targets... not recommending anyone follow this other than out of curiosity and how the levels generated by VP can assist in a market view...

Edited by roztom

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted

UPdate: As posted I took my scale at 41.50 level.. why: MCLVN: 41.50...test of today low... open gap 41.25, etc...

 

Now what? Rotation.. Where are stops sitting nearby? I look at 15m & 30m bars for that..

 

I am flat now which is why I scale at "logical" targets... If you are all in/out it is much harder.IMHO..

 

Basically the market is going to test midpoint, OR/Open... Will Sellers show up again? Are Buyers taking back control?

 

We should get some indications soon.. IMHO...

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Just a note on order book here. You see this fairly frequently for anyone who is looking at ES. Order book fills up, then there is this 'forcing' action which doesnt really stop until objectives are met/caught traders capitulate. My guess here is 'they' were trying to make it look like a turn from 44.25 again, get a load of shorts in, then force it through. All conjecture mind :)

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
Just a note on order book here. You see this fairly frequently for anyone who is looking at ES. Order book fills up, then there is this 'forcing' action which doesnt really stop until objectives are met/caught traders capitulate. My guess here is 'they' were trying to make it look like a turn from 44.25 again, get a load of shorts in, then force it through. All conjecture mind :)

 

Agree..good observation..Tx for that..

 

Unless we take out HOD a possible outcome we have taken the "easy" stops" IMHO... so now what? A rotational day? A Neutral Day..the slugfest continues betw Buyers/Sellers... Are Buyers getting tired... ? Don't know .. I look at the LOD F period test as a failed auction..similar to what we had on 2/9 so this can mean interesting move up from here...

into Yest VA... knitting...

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

We are in OPEX week so without clear direction, price action could be a little spicy. Or not, but it's worth remembering. If you look at the balance profile, there is low volume at 47.50 which also ties in with a low vol area from yesterday. That would be my first ref above 46.25.

 

Maybe Josh could give us an update on volume stats?

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
We are in OPEX week so without clear direction, price action could be a little spicy. Or not, but it's worth remembering. If you look at the balance profile, there is low volume at 47.50 which also ties in with a low vol area from yesterday. That would be my first ref above 46.25.

 

Maybe Josh could give us an update on volume stats?

 

87% so far. Steadily climbing since an incredibly weak open. I am sim long from 42s, was not feeling it again with real money on this one, but have scaled some near the open, holding a couple for 46.50 and 50s. Just can't seem to pull the trigger with what I'm seeing lately, but it's good to be right and trade well even if on sim, rather than be flat and just watching. The shift to long was about as clear as can get at the lows, but the steady selling continued afterward so that scared me off a bit.

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
We are in OPEX week so without clear direction, price action could be a little spicy. Or not, but it's worth remembering. If you look at the balance profile, there is low volume at 47.50 which also ties in with a low vol area from yesterday. That would be my first ref above 46.25.

 

Maybe Josh could give us an update on volume stats?

 

I was just going to post 47.50 then 48.75 NVPOC...Also the CLosing low swing was 47.50 so that is an important number up top... I am stalking a long but need it to rotate otherwise R/R doesn't work with that target so close...

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