Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

Yes..we are in the Ozone layer up here... not too many reference points... will just have to depend on sense of smell :rofl:

 

Edit: I do have a "guesstimate" 1344.50 ish.. It is strictly "old school" based on a relic called a bar chart..based on 15m bars - if we take out 1337.00 then it will have failed but it is at least to my eye a Bull Flag or a Pennent.. They do have measuring objectives and I do find them helpful but like all of these tools they do not predict - only guide..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

I am goiinng to repost this since I did it as an edit earlier...

 

I just want to add that 1344.00 -1346.00 area is pure speculation based on how I read bar charts (I'm not going to suggest I even read them correctly) and not based on any nodes... I really don't have anything up here right now..I will have to adjust my Charts for the new level we are at but I have taken some scales and am waiting to see how we behave ..

 

If we rotate before this level there might be opportunities to position..not a recommendation, etc...just look at the VP development and balance areas if they develop and see if you can spot where those areas might be forming...

 

They also can be negated if they fill in so this is not mechanical ..as we have discussed..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[gosu 10]

short nq 2529.50......

 

if i get the opportunity within the next hour, will add above 2530 and see how pm start up goes...

 

forgot to state that this is playing the ST and will look to hold beyond eod depending on pm...ST p2

Edited February 3, 2012 by gosu

[gosu 10]

if i get the opportunity within the next hour, will add above 2530 and see how pm start up goes...

 

forgot to state that this is playing the ST and will look to hold beyond eod depending on pm...ST p2

 

will wash at 2529.25.....this is now a "free" ride

[roztom 10]

will wash at 2529.25.....this is now a "free" ride

 

Free is Good..

 

 

I'm watching for some ES rotation..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

VWAP(38.00), Midpoint(37.25), ON High/High Vol low extreme(36.75) and Open (35.75) all standing in way of any selling(although either way if it gets going it might not matter).

[gosu 10]

will wash at 2529.25.....this is now a "free" ride

 

stop at 2528.25.......going out for a quick lunch...

[roztom 10]

VWAP(38.00), Midpoint(37.25), ON High/High Vol low extreme(36.75) and Open (35.75) all standing in way of any selling(although either way if it gets going it might not matter).

 

Yep... In addition...We have been making higher lows on these shallow rotations... (so far)

 

I am still looking to see if we can get to the 46ish area... but will not stand on ceremony..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[joshdance 10]

I plot the volume throughout the day (can't take the credit, got the idea elsewhere) compared with the 20 day median. It kept pace earlier due to payroll excitement, but for a while now has been drifting and diverging. In other words, I would not expect much else from today. Anything can happen but I don't need to say that right?

[steve46 12]

No problem Steve. Just I would point out that saying you had a long position several hours ago and holding the trade into NFPs are two very different things. I haven't used ESignal in a very long time now but as far as I can tell, your "pre-position screen" is just a chart showing no position data at all. I don't know whether this was just an oversight or not though as you have stated before that you find it difficult to post and trade simultaneously(which I agree with) and this is obviously a big issue under shock-NFP trading conditions! Perhaps you can fill us in later.

 

For many people though, especially retail traders, trading NFPs is very dangerous. You must know what you are doing. You must appropriately size your position to account for possible increased volatility. You should also have fast low latency equipment. You should also have a good sized account. This is all my opinion. Remember, you can lose more than the amount that you having sitting in your account when trading futures products.

 

Your comments are well taken.....you have to know what you are doing to trade events

 

There are a couple of ways to handle risk of events....the general process involves using options to establish a core position several days or (now that we have weekly options) a week or so out.....you have two choices based on local vol......one is you can buy or sell "the number" (meaning "at the money" options) or you can buy or sell volatility....I hope some of you understand what that means...

 

If you have a protocol that you follow, you simply execute and evaluate your core (options position).....if you have "breathing room" by the time your event is scheduled you can trade around it...depending on your skills....the process is (once again) the same....you try to pre-position in front of the event so that you have a margin or error and if it goes against you the impact is minimal...

 

On the day of the event....what usually happens in a professional market is that you have a time period of appproximately a hour in front of the event in which to position....on top of that I look for an algorithmic pattern that indicates that someone "knows" or (at the very least has an opinion they are willing to back with money) what the report will be....after you have seen it a while you can recognize that pattern...if I don't see it by the time we are 2 minutes in front of the "event" I scratch my trade and hold the option position...If I see the pattern I hold both...

 

Good luck folks

Steve

 

Edit...on page 156, post 1243 ....I talk about establishing my options position.

[gosu 10]

stop at 2528.25.......going out for a quick lunch...

 

a sure sign of shitty stop placement: when you get price improvement when it gets triggered.

[gosu 10]

short 2526.75......still playing ST p2

[gosu 10]

short 2526.75......still playing ST p2

 

wash 2526.75......feeling a bit off emotionally

[roztom 10]

I plot the volume throughout the day (can't take the credit, got the idea elsewhere) compared with the 20 day median. It kept pace earlier due to payroll excitement, but for a while now has been drifting and diverging. In other words, I would not expect much else from today. Anything can happen but I don't need to say that right?

 

Yes..I got flat...the darn Delta stinks... There is a lot of divergence there also... Price has been firm...it's a conundrum for me... When my brain goes "tilt" I get out...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[steve46 12]

Tom (roztom)

 

Sorry I realized that you asked about how to manage sleep.....I am waiting for the 12:30 time frame and I want to reply about that

 

First, I used to trade a high touch desk overnight...the way I managed was to take naps every couple of hours...while an associate watched the screen...now I am an older person trading on my own so I handle it differently.....first I trade the open from 6:30 to either 7:30 or 8:30 (depends on whether I have a position on)....then I take another nap until 10:00am....I trade from 10 to close or until I see the 12:30 time frame....if we don't have an opportunity by 12:45 I am gone....it works for me....I find that I don't miss as many trades as I did when I tried to sit there in front of the sceen continuously from open to close...I work with a couple of people who were skeptical about this until they tried it themselves.....

 

Thanks for asking

Steve

[joshdance 10]

Yes..I got flat...the darn Delta stinks... There is a lot of divergence there also... Price has been firm...it's a conundrum for me... When my brain goes "tilt" I get out...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

Indeed, compare this delta to other days which trend strongly ...

[gosu 10]

wash 2526.75......feeling a bit off emotionally

 

 

short 2526.25

 

 

washed a couple trades to get back in the groove.....

 

What I know...this is a ST p2....the only question is do i enter today or next week....

[gosu 10]

short 2526.25

 

 

washed a couple trades to get back in the groove.....

 

What I know...this is a ST p2....the only question is do i enter today or next week....

 

I'll look for a wash in the 2526.25 to 26.75 area if it gets there...i'll decide on hold into weekend near eod.

[roztom 10]

Tom (roztom)

 

Sorry I realized that you asked about how to manage sleep.....I am waiting for the 12:30 time frame and I want to reply about that

 

First, I used to trade a high touch desk overnight...the way I managed was to take naps every couple of hours...while an associate watched the screen...now I am an older person trading on my own so I handle it differently.....first I trade the open from 6:30 to either 7:30 or 8:30 (depends on whether I have a position on)....then I take another nap until 10:00am....I trade from 10 to close or until I see the 12:30 time frame....if we don't have an opportunity by 12:45 I am gone....it works for me....I find that I don't miss as many trades as I did when I tried to sit there in front of the sceen continuously from open to close...I work with a couple of people who were skeptical about this until they tried it themselves.....

 

Thanks for asking

Steve

 

Very interesting Steve.. I have never done much with Globex since I am "trying" to sleep at the most opportune times... Sometimes I do scalp around the Globex open based on RTH VA & VPOC but just hit & run...

 

I used to do something similar to you but only day - I would get calls in the night but plans were typically laid out & after hours if we needed to lay something off we had to go to London (LIFFE) or Interbank.. I am a bit gray in the muzzle myself...

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[gosu 10]

I'll look for a wash in the 2526.25 to 26.75 area if it gets there...i'll decide on hold into weekend near eod.

 

wash 2525.75....next week it is

[roztom 10]

2:45cst.. Here is a tidbit of interest... Many times the market will make it's next move in the direction of the trend heading into the close or right after the cash close...

 

Now I am flat so I look at these and for me this would bwe an aggressive trade if I wasn't done already..

 

CLVN tested @ 1338.50 1338.75 low from 12:45cst 1 ticked... Delta going Positive relative to it's downtrend..., etc.. A long set up for a quick scalp ..what I do = just for this is position/scale, get into a free peek position if possible and then go into the close/cash/futures... It can get crazy but we can also have a vacumn which if you are nimble can be very nice. Of course..the door can slam both ways... which is why I must get a high probability target so I am in a breakeven position going into the close..

 

Update: This one would have scratched & bought a "Happy Meal"

 

... "free peek".

 

Have a Great Weekend..

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited February 3, 2012 by roztom

[gosu 10]

wash 2525.75....next week it is

 

This is what I KNOW:

 

The indicies are at a confluence of the ST p2 and the IT p2. Therefore, up next is a sizeable retrace spanning longer than one RTH session. I anticipate it will be next week (not necessarily Monday), but this is not a prediction and I am not in charge of the timing of it. My role is to monitor real time for precise timing of actions and minimizing risk.

 

Good trading.

[clmacdougall 11]

This is what I KNOW:

 

The indicies are at a confluence of the ST p2 and the IT p2. Therefore, up next is a sizeable retrace spanning longer than one RTH session. I anticipate it will be next week (not necessarily Monday), but this is not a prediction and I am not in charge of the timing of it. My role is to monitor real time for precise timing of actions and minimizing risk.

 

Good trading.

 

Could you please tell me what "ST p2" and "IT p2" are or mean. Thanks, Cory

[gosu 10]

Could you please tell me what "ST p2" and "IT p2" are or mean. Thanks, Cory

 

ST - Short Term

 

IT - Intermediate Term

 

p2 - point 2

[clmacdougall 11]

ST - Short Term

 

IT - Intermediate Term

 

p2 - point 2

 

How's about a chart in order to show us their significance. Thanks, Cory.

[gosu 10]

How's about a chart in order to show us their significance. Thanks, Cory.

 

Hi Cory,

 

I could post my charts but they would look like gobbledegoo to anyone but me. Years ago I came across one of my charts on this site that I had posted somewhere else and I was amused to see it used as an example of being too cluttered and how not to trade by a person who had gathered a following with his Wyckoff dissertation that he ended up peddling as an ebook for a few bucks.

 

In any case, there's nothing complicated about what I said that you can't pop up a chart and see for yourself. Get a daily chart of the stock indicies and go back to mid-December and mark that as the beginning of the current IT move within which are the ST moves. Draw some lines to help you visualize the collection of bars as the current state of the market. What I see are the words "change coming up."

 

People on TV are calling the current move the "January effect" which is based on looking back on previous Januaries, but I know that January was informed by what occurred in the immediate past before January and had nothing to do with the fact that a month beginning with the letter"J" and ending with the letter "Y" is statistically bullish.

 

I hope I was responsive to your request.