Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[mdubsnz 10]

Well I got shaken out on that market down tick. Quite a violent TICK down as somebody hit the market. Lowest reading of the day and open PnL risk was too high for me to hold on till 1329 region.

 

Am watching to see if we touch VPOC/VWAP or even IBH as you stated Roztom, for a lower risk entry going into the close/globex.

 

edit/ There was definitely a lack of volume built around 1323.50-1324.00 on the daily VP so it makes sense that it may want to re-test that region.

Edited February 1, 2012 by mdubsnz

[roztom 10]

Well I got shaken out on that market down tick. Quite a violent TICK down as somebody hit the market. Lowest reading of the day and open PnL risk was too high for me to hold on till 1329 region.

 

Am watching to see if we touch VPOC/VWAP or even IBH as you stated Roztom, for a lower risk entry going into the close/globex.

 

edit/ There was definitely a lack of volume built around 1323.50-1324.00 on the daily VP so it makes sense that it may want to re-test that region.

 

As of 1:19cst we did test IBH just 1 ticked it..so far behaving ok.. do need to see it start coming out of here.. I did add so I am a bit jaundiced.. :helloooo:

 

Good trading all..

 

Tom

[mdubsnz 10]

As of 1:19cst we did test IBH just 1 ticked it..so far behaving ok.. do need to see it start coming out of here.. I did add so I am a bit jaundiced.. :helloooo:

 

Good trading all..

 

Tom

 

Nice.

 

I was a little too ambitious with my LMT placement so missed the IBH entry as was really anticipating the VPOC test. Am now waiting in line for a down tick as really don't want to pay up if I don't have too :p

 

edit/ok got my fill, now it may carry on as it was ^_^

[roztom 10]

Nice.

 

I was a little too ambitious with my LMT placement so missed the IBH entry. Am now waiting in line for a down tick as really don't want to pay up if I don't have too :p

 

edit/ok got my fill, now it may carry on as it was ^_^

 

GREAT!! Call some friends..we need some more buyers

 

regards,

 

Tom

[roztom 10]

Look at YM, it is just painfull to watch for me.

 

It looks ok to me... ..unless it breaks down out of the consolidation..

regards,

 

Tom

[Sobo 10]

It looks ok to me... ..unless it breaks down out of the consolidation..

regards,

 

Tom

 

It does not look ok to me, because I cannot enter to any position. I dont know when, where and if it breaks.

[roztom 10]

VPOC Shift 13:47 ish: VPoc shifted to 1323.00 and the market moved up... don't know if it is sustainable and Delta went up with it... This is how I "try" to discern what is happening in that high VOL Area...

 

2p we will see...

 

Good Trading,

 

Tom

[mdubsnz 10]

VPOC Shift 13:47 ish: VPoc shifted to 1323.00 and the market moved up... don't know if it is sustainable and Delta went up with it... This is how I "try" to discern what is happening in that high VOL Area...

 

2p we will see...

 

Good Trading,

 

Tom

 

Assuming nobody unloads a boat going into the closing auction I think I will be placed ok going into the GLOBEX session to let her ride for a retest of the highs if one is to occur.

 

Market internals are all off their highs however and facing some continued pressure so :/

 

Assuming Asia and Europe don't have any major negative news I would presume the VPOC will hold and price will move away higher at some stage leading into tomorrows open.

 

Maybe they run it up into NFP or sell it off from here based on the trend of reports this week to be under consensus. Time will tell.

[roztom 10]

Assuming nobody unloads a boat going into the closing auction I think I will be placed ok going into the GLOBEX session to let her ride for a retest of the highs if one is to occur.

 

Market internals are all off their highs however and facing some continued pressure so :/

 

Assuming Asia and Europe don't have any major negative news I would presume the VPOC will hold and price will move away higher at some stage leading into tomorrows open.

 

Maybe they run it up into NFP or sell it off from here based on the trend of reports this week to be under consensus. Time will tell.

 

I've had a better time at my Dentist... and have put my toys away for the moment..

 

Tom

[mdubsnz 10]

I've had a better time at my Dentist... and have put my toys away for the moment..

 

Tom

 

I'm still hanging in there by a whisker. Still have the DVAL, an EMA aswell as GLOBEX resistance for me to lean on as potential support. Don't really like what I'm seeing tho. Delta got smacked.

 

edit/ ok I'm flat. some decent unloading there. Will re-look at things during globex.

Edited February 1, 2012 by mdubsnz

[roztom 10]

I'm still hanging in there by a whisker. Still have the DVAL and an EMA for me to lean on as potential support. Don't really like what I'm seeing tho. Delta got smacked.

 

Yep...everything looked good until it got smacked at 25.75...

 

Things can get interesting around the cash close also...just watching here to see if there's a set up...

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

profile is very thin below the VAL...

[TheNegotiator 13]

profile is very thin below the VAL...

 

wow, that was a hit there!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just beware of this carrying on down. don't wanna stand in front of a freight train into cash close.

[steve46 12]

Yep...everything looked good until it got smacked at 25.75...

 

Things can get interesting around the cash close also...just watching here to see if there's a set up...

 

Tom

 

???

 

Hello, always interesting to see how retail traders view the close.....

 

I realize you think that you have to follow your volume and MP data, but really you're missing

the important data...human behavior

 

Sure its a two sided market and there are (almost) always buyers somewhere in the crowd, however...think for a moment...on a day like today, with low volume, most of it professional, and most of it long from the overnight, what do we need to do at (before actually) the close of cash?

 

We (mostly) want to get flat....so on a day like this, where is the market likely to go in the last half hour or so?

[mdubsnz 10]

???

 

Hello, always interesting to see how retail traders view the close.....

 

I realize you think that you have to follow your volume and MP data, but really you're missing

the important data...human behavior

 

Sure its a two sided market and there are (almost) always buyers somewhere in the crowd, however...think for a moment...on a day like today, with low volume, most of it professional, and most of it long from the overnight, what do we need to do at (before actually) the close of cash?

 

We (mostly) want to get flat....so on a day like this, where is the market likely to go in the last half hour or so?

 

Steve, when you say most of it long from the overnight, are you meaning those whom positioned themselves long during yesterdays (and/or mondays) RTH as opposed to professionals who initiated new positions during the overnight session? or both in reality?

 

Just last nights move higher was pretty thin compared to the amount of volume we saw into todays close.

[roztom 10]

???

 

Hello, always interesting to see how retail traders view the close.....

 

I realize you think that you have to follow your volume and MP data, but really you're missing

the important data...human behavior

 

Sure its a two sided market and there are (almost) always buyers somewhere in the crowd, however...think for a moment...on a day like today, with low volume, most of it professional, and most of it long from the overnight, what do we need to do at (before actually) the close of cash?

 

We (mostly) want to get flat....so on a day like this, where is the market likely to go in the last half hour or so?

 

Good point...Certianly agree...if retail is long which I was then got to look for long liquidation which I did... t

[steve46 12]

Steve, when you say most of it long from the overnight, are you meaning those whom positioned themselves long during yesterdays (and/or mondays) RTH as opposed to professionals who initiated new positions during the overnight session? or both in reality?

 

Just last nights move higher was pretty thin compared to the amount of volume we saw into todays close.

 

Global Markets are all heavily correllated now with both commercials and institutionals trading primarily off the European news. I can only rely on my own training....I was long in the options market and outright from yesterday. There was no need to get long today at the close....and the traditional idea that long term investors are going to pay up to be in at the close doesn't apply. Those of us who make a living at this are mostly mark to market and are motivated to book profits early in the year.

 

Based on my training if I am still interested in the close I would be looking for a pattern that reflects both automated execution and pros getting out...that pattern showed itself several times in the last hour...I certainly wouldn't step in front of that looking to be long at the close.

 

and now I have to prepare for the Globex open...

 

Good luck folks

Steve

[TheNegotiator 13]

???I realize you think that you have to follow your volume and MP data, but really you're missing the important data...human behavior

 

steve, it's not our mp or volume and you are missing the point. If you understand it with auction context and experience it does show you what is going on.

[steve46 12]

I like MP and Auction Market Theory just fine sir...I use it myself (when it applies)....unfortunately what trumps that data is the fact that markets are controlled by professionals (today) and the decisions that they make are informed NOT by Market Profile or Auction Market Theory, but by basic economic realities....and (in large part) to each participant's emotional response to news of the day...

 

Once I learned how to use this approach to markets, I was able to continue to use Market Profile and Auction Market Theory and to put that data in its proper perspective....

 

and what I mean by that is this....I can use the data (I certainly trade off elements of Market Profile including Value)....and then when appropriate I watch the crowd trade off of it mechanically (without thinking it through) and I take the other side....

 

and I don't mean to be impolite...I enjoy the debate, but I need to get back to work.

 

Best to all

Steve

[TheNegotiator 13]

I'm not sure anyone is suggesting mechanically trading off it. If they are they'll likely be disappointed like others who trade mechanically with other tools. But using the auction and structure to gain quantifiable entries and exits can be very useful.

Edited February 1, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[roztom 10]

I like MP and Auction Market Theory just fine sir...I use it myself (when it applies)....unfortunately what trumps that data is the fact that markets are controlled by professionals (today) and the decisions that they make are informed NOT by Market Profile or Auction Market Theory, but by basic economic realities....and (in large part) to each participant's emotional response to news of the day...

 

Once I learned how to use this approach to markets, I was able to continue to use Market Profile and Auction Market Theory and to put that data in its proper perspective....

 

and what I mean by that is this....I can use the data (I certainly trade off elements of Market Profile including Value)....and then when appropriate I watch the crowd trade off of it mechanically (without thinking it through) and I take the other side....

 

and I don't mean to be impolite...I enjoy the debate, but I need to get back to work.

 

Best to all

Steve

 

Steve: As you know many here are interested in MP/VP... nobody has ever suggested a mechanical approach to MP. We all know it doesn't work. MP/VP in context with other tools, as you pointed out has value.. that has always been a consistent theme of the discussion here.

 

Back in the early 80's when it was introduced it was initially presented in a somewhat rule based format... I couldn't work it that way..couldn't trade with it... Today with volume it certainly provides me with areas of interest to consider taking positons... as well as allowing me to see when the structure is breaking down.. I do not advocate mechanical trading - too many variables. I also assume that we all use a confluence of tools and do so in a different manner...so one size does not fit all...

 

My objective in posting - and I believe this is quite clear is to try to demonstrate the MP tool as the market develops and to help those following the thread to read it as it is unfolding. MP really has to be learned as it unfolds not as a static picture.. Whether anyone wants or should integrate MP into their trading is up to them but when I learned it, it was static pictures in a book except for what I saw develop on my CQG machine. IT didn't work for me.. nobody was there to help..there were no Forums, No internet, trading was a very isolated business.. etc...

 

Hopefully the time I've put in here has been benificial in helping those with an interest in the MP/VP tool... Many participants seem to appreciate that the Profile is making more sense and with Josh, Negotiator, and others posting I believe the general understanding of its potential as a useful tool has been enhanced etc... All tools have Pro/Con..MP no different... even the IBH trade that went bad today had apx 2 pt open trade profit in it.. the profile identified the area and provided rationale for taking a position there. It was not a stand in front of the market trade...none of them are.. but I think we can agree that area was support until it gave way..

 

What I attempt to do is point out areas of interest and then if the market rotates there then a trade must be confirmed by other market behavior / tools - after that it is up to the market participants... When the IBH trade went bad..there was a short opportunity for the reasons you already mentioned... if the market is long and it fails you will see long liquidation... that also was an opportunity.. that was my reference about going into the close..

 

I don't want this to sound (textually) that I am advocating anything other than the sharing of tools and ideas... which I assume is why we are all here.

 

With your knowledgeable background, I hope you will share some more of your insights with us... I know we would all appreciate it and benifit from it.

 

Regards,

 

Tom

Edited February 1, 2012 by roztom

[clmacdougall 11]

What I find difficult with the type of trading that MP/VP inspires is the amount of movement it attempts to statistically predict. There is too much that could and does go wrong with a trade like todays.

In effect roztom made an incredible call of a market turn today and watched his trade disintegrate late in the day. The truth is what we saw today was due to expectations that were too large, no statistical set has enough predictive ability to outlast the market.

You did a great job today Tom! Just lower the length of your call and I'm sure your statistical base will eventually catch up to your expectations.

 

Cory

[TheNegotiator 13]

What I find difficult with the type of trading that MP/VP inspires is the amount of movement it attempts to statistically predict. There is too much that could and does go wrong with a trade like todays.

In effect roztom made an incredible call of a market turn today and watched his trade disintegrate late in the day. The truth is what we saw today was due to expectations that were too large, no statistical set has enough predictive ability to outlast the market.

You did a great job today Tom! Just lower the length of your call and I'm sure your statistical base will eventually catch up to your expectations.

 

Cory

 

Understanding the profile and auction context gives us an idea of what may happen. This is not the same as choosing to trade it with a certain strategy. There are some techniques which require more attention than others, some which are potentially riskier depending on your own personality. And so on. There are entries which I see others take which I wouldn't necessarily take myself. But I see the same things as they do. Use the tools to see what is going on, but trade your own strategy which you are comfortable with.

[clmacdougall 11]

Understanding the profile and auction context gives us an idea of what may happen. This is not the same as choosing to trade it with a certain strategy. There are some techniques which require more attention than others, some which are potentially riskier depending on your own personality. And so on. There are entries which I see others take which I wouldn't necessarily take myself. But I see the same things as they do. Use the tools to see what is going on, but trade your own strategy which you are comfortable with.

 

You're right N, but the inspiration to trade from node to node is largely what trading VP offers. I believe Tom is really onto something contextually. You can see he's made an art out of a failed science (mechanical MP/VP). It's a pleasure to watch him post and I hope he does not stop. Very interesting.