Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[gosu 10]

After you do that for a few earnings seasons, you will see that there are only a handful of names to keep an eye out for. Currently Apple is numero uno and is practically a proxy for the NDX. You will see the build up on CNBC going into the release. The upcoming week has a few economic releases to be aware of, the major ones being Apple earnings, FOMC and GDP.

[joshdance 10]

I remember posting several examples where price tested a weekly open and then reversed (to the tick) as an example.

 

Steve, on another thread I started there is a discussion of MP and value. A discussion arose regarding the opening price of a period as being a measure of value. In your example above of the weekly open, are you using the Sunday globex open (today at 1307.50 ES for example) as your price, or do you consider the Monday morning 9:30am EST equities open as your weekly open? And whatever your answer is, why one over the other?

 

Also, in a post above you referenced the prior day's open. So on Friday, you said that the market took out Thursday's open. Why do you feel that Thursday's open has any significance on Friday afternoon, given that we have had a Thursday close, and a Friday open?

[steve46 12]

Steve, on another thread I started there is a discussion of MP and value. A discussion arose regarding the opening price of a period as being a measure of value. In your example above of the weekly open, are you using the Sunday globex open (today at 1307.50 ES for example) as your price, or do you consider the Monday morning 9:30am EST equities open as your weekly open? And whatever your answer is, why one over the other?

 

Also, in a post above you referenced the prior day's open. So on Friday, you said that the market took out Thursday's open. Why do you feel that Thursday's open has any significance on Friday afternoon, given that we have had a Thursday close, and a Friday open?

 

Well I can only talk about the way I was trained....The open is considered THE most important price within specific time periods....those time periods are called "time-based pivots" as I wrote in my thread on institutional trading. For each time period the open is the most important price. So the hierarchy is simple, for the year the opening price in January is the most important. For the quarter, that open is most important, for the month, the opening price on the first trading day is "it".......and so on....as each time period comes to a close, that opening price takes on more significance. Its really pretty simple.

 

 

Good luck in the markets

Steve

 

Edit...sorry...to answer your question. For me the weekly open is Monday at 6:30am PST

Edited January 23, 2012 by steve46

[steve46 12]

Josh,

 

Here is a follow up on yesterday's question

 

Today (Monday 23 Jan) around the noon hour (my time) I am waiting for my scheduled setup to occur.....and at 11:53 or so....there it is....a reversal pattern that I see all the time....now there are three things I need to trade...first I need to see this happen at or near a supply demand node...second I need to see it happen at a specific time, and lastly I need to have confluence

 

On this one I had all three data points in line and I read the tape...and I take the trade the next time I see a favorable tape...."normally" I might say that I have no idea whether it will be a winner or loser....strictly speaking that is true....but really I have been doing this for a long time and I am pretty sure this is going my way (meaning it is worth at least 2-3 points maybe more)

 

The part YOU were interested in is the confluence provided by my "time-based pivots"....just above the green arrow, which is my point of entry....that price is 1308...and my time based pivot worksheet (which I fill out on Sunday, then update each day) shows the previous day's open at 1308.25

 

I don't think I can make it clearer than that.....

 

Good luck

Steve

 

Edit...by the way, from my point of view this has nothing to do with "value"

Edited January 23, 2012 by steve46

[steve46 12]

and here is the resolution to the trade

 

I have some chores to do outside my office today, so I took profit just under 5 points and folded my tent for the day....

 

As you can see, this one worked out pretty good

 

Obviously it isn't allways a storybook ending, but this is what I am shooting for.....low stress, simple rule set. point and click.

 

I hope you understand when I say that I won't be posting this stuff again.

 

Good luck

Steve

[joshdance 10]

How ironic, I took the exact same trade at 08.25, got out 11.50, scalped another tick or two on this push up.

 

Oh, because I respect those who verify they actually took trades, here is my proof, posted another thread elsewhere.

Edited January 23, 2012 by joshdance

[joshdance 10]

Though there was something I'm not clear on steve that you did not address in my last post -- why do you care about the PRIOR day's open? Since Friday's open, we have had Friday's close, we have had the Sunday globex open, and the Monday morning RTH open... what's so special about 9:30am Friday at this point?

[steve46 12]

Though there was something I'm not clear on steve that you did not address in my last post -- why do you care about the PRIOR day's open? Since Friday's open, we have had Friday's close, we have had the Sunday globex open, and the Monday morning RTH open... what's so special about 9:30am Friday at this point?

 

Why do you care about the previous day's value area high and low? For most retail traders, the answer is you read it in a book and believed it to be true....in my case I tested the data (downloaded historical data and tested the behavior)....and based on the results I trade on it.

 

Edit

 

You know Josh what matters in this business is that you pay attention to details and become a good observer....if you just scroll back in THIS thread, you can see where I posted as we came to the end of the year....congratulating some of my former associates on hitting the yearly open at 1263+.....why do you think that people find that price important nearly a full year later? For me its both puzzling and interesting that folks don't put it together.....this is a market dominated by professional interests, and we don't get paid all that much unless we hit our targets...(and the biggest target of all is the yearly open)....every time period builds on the next......in order to hit your yearly target you have to hit your quarterly target.....to hit your quarterly target you want to hit your monthly target....and so on....is some of this starting to make sense?

Edited January 23, 2012 by steve46

[joshdance 10]

Why do you care about the previous day's value area high and low? For most retail traders, the answer is you read it in a book and believed it to be true....in my case I tested the data (downloaded historical data and tested the behavior)....and based on the results I trade on it.

 

Edit

 

You know Josh what matters in this business is that you pay attention to details and become a good observer....if you just scroll back in THIS thread, you can see where I posted as we came to the end of the year....congratulating some of my former associates on hitting the yearly open at 1263+.....why do you think that people find that price important nearly a full year later? For me its both puzzling and interesting that folks don't put it together.....this is a market dominated by professional interests, and we don't get paid all that much unless we hit our targets...(and the biggest target of all is the yearly open)....every time period builds on the next......is some of this starting to make sense?

 

Yes steve, it does make sense; but with regard to the yearly open, are you congratulating your former associates on hitting the yearly open because they bought at the beginning of the year, held through the year, and came out slightly ahead because the year closed positive? That seems to be your statement but perhaps I'm not understanding you correctly.

 

When you say "hit their target", what do you mean exactly? Like, their goal is to buy or sell the opening of some period (day, week, quarter), and then make sure the position is profitable at the end of that period?

[roztom 10]

Why do you care about the previous day's value area high and low? For most retail traders, the answer is you read it in a book and believed it to be true....in my case I tested the data (downloaded historical data and tested the behavior)....and based on the results I trade on it.

 

Edit

 

You know Josh what matters in this business is that you pay attention to details and become a good observer....if you just scroll back in THIS thread, you can see where I posted as we came to the end of the year....congratulating some of my former associates on hitting the yearly open at 1263+.....why do you think that people find that price important nearly a full year later? For me its both puzzling and interesting that folks don't put it together.....this is a market dominated by professional interests, and we don't get paid all that much unless we hit our targets...(and the biggest target of all is the yearly open)....every time period builds on the next......in order to hit your yearly target you have to hit your quarterly target.....to hit your quarterly target you want to hit your monthly target....and so on....is some of this starting to make sense?

 

Steve: That is very interesting... If Open is an agreement of value at that time, isn't the close an agreement on value also?

 

Regards,

 

Tom

[joshdance 10]

Steve: That is very interesting... If Open is an agreement of value at that time, isn't the close an agreement on value also?

 

Regards,

 

Tom

 

If possible, maybe we can take that question to the Price Acceptance / Value thread if you don't mind Steve said earlier that it's not, to him, a question of "value"...

[roztom 10]

If possible, maybe we can take that question to the Price Acceptance / Value thread if you don't mind Steve said earlier that it's not, to him, a question of "value"...

 

Josh:I was actally meant to say "agreement." But I am curious if the Closes have similar signifigence...

 

Tx

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay, let's try to keep the information objective and practical. Stating trades without backing them up with reasons why you took the trade isn't useful. Saying you look at this but can't say why also isn't useful. Talk about the e-minis and how they are trading, ideas to trade them and anything else directly relating to them.

 

NO FLUFF PLEASE

 

Anyway. All pretty useful stuff in general, so let's try to keep it that way and make it an even better thread

[TheNegotiator 13]

If we want to talk about opens and their use for example, perhaps we can do some proper stats on them.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay, I didn't really trade yesterday. Test higher, test lower with poor structure(vol). Says no common view of value. Overnight so far, we have tested 1302.25. I suspect 1298.75/96.75 (and possible 1288.25) need to be tested to legitimise any further move higher. It's also FOMC tomorrow so are we likely to blast-off before? We'll see. 10.50, 13.25 and 17.50 are possible key points to the up side.

 

Edited January 24, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Was looking to short somewhere on open. Had 5.25 in mind but shows how if you hesistate you lose out as I missed it completely took a couple of short scratches at shitty prices, then reversed @2.00 from lame selling. Would like to see what happens at high.

[joshdance 10]

Order flow switched to long, but now attracting more sellers near 04/05 .. could go either way right now. I do not detect that sellers have taken this back over yet, and if they don't aggressively take this below the low, we could have a nice rebound above 05 into yday's range.

[TheNegotiator 13]

not looking great. wanted to see a surge-like reversal and fig in 5mins

[TheNegotiator 13]

Order flow switched to long, but now attracting more sellers near 04/05 .. could go either way right now. I do not detect that sellers have taken this back over yet, and if they don't aggressively take this below the low, we could have a nice rebound above 05 into yday's range.

 

Yes possibly. Also, they could wait for fig to see if positive, see a bounce then hit it at a better price for a move down to 98.75/96.75.

[joshdance 10]

10am news you mean? It's just Richmond Man. Index, should not move the market at all

[TheNegotiator 13]

rich fed 12 apparently ........................

[joshdance 10]

rich fed 12 apparently ........................

 

I don't see it on my calendar :-(

[TheNegotiator 13]

IMF global growth outlook downgraded. I'm out at a shitty 3.75. Was hoping for a flick up to 5.75/6.50 on release but it didn't happen. Wasn't a primary trading idea so a couple of points(1.75) was okay I guess. (although it's going to break now by the looks of things!! lol)

[TheNegotiator 13]

I don't see it on my calendar :-(

 

which calendar do you look at?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Haha! Often the way of it right? Let's see if there's any follow through, otherwise the original target is on imo.