Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yesterday was kind of good and kind of lame. Good in that it responded at the expected levels, but lame in the manner it did so.

 

The thing for me today is that Friday rejected test lower and yesterday rejected higher. Move higher into close(from lows) couldn't hold back above Friday's high. It currently looks as if we'll be opening somewhere near the long term low volume area which also corresponds to current balance VPOC at 1288.50.

 

More news please.

 

[roztom 10]

It certainly looks like the Buyers have left the building, at least for now...

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

maybe. btw, just take a look at the chart i posted again. look where the balance VAL comes in. might be worth watching if we get there.

[joshdance 10]

A more simplistic view: do we want to be below yesterday's value of 86.25/89 (the low and close) or inside yesterday's value? And, the market rejected last week's high (97s) during globex. Do we want to stay in last week's range, or break out? These simple levels provide quite a lot of information regarding where the market sees value in how they respond to them.

 

We now have 86s getting hit three times -- yesterday's low, globex, and holding now. Triple bottom support, could be a nice long.

[joshdance 10]

The view on 30 minute

[TheNegotiator 13]

Was pretty decent. What do we do at 92.75 and will we revisit the low as it was tested several times(idea that selling fizzled out rather than strong buying coming in).

[TheNegotiator 13]

Very directional so far although still within balance.

[roztom 10]

HI: I got fooled this morning. Sold early took small loss, reversed and scaled at yest IBL, NVPOC and holding for next scalle CLVN 98.75.. looking for 1304 - 1307 ish - maybe

 

Tom...

[TheNegotiator 13]

It's been very directional so far today. One thing worth noting though is that over the past week or so the market is very directional one way then reverses and is very directional the opposite way. Just something to be aware of if we drop back at all if you do have a long bias.

[roztom 10]

There was good buying in the 96.00 area, will be interesting to see how it does if it rotates.. Just holding last lot for possible 1304 area... got scale at 98.25 I typically put order in 2 tics ahead of node...just luck today... Need that luck... Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just take it for what it is though. In my experience, when people have luck, if they have flaws in the way they trade overall, the 'luck' is more destructive than anything else.

[roztom 10]

I only use targets when the structure suggests where it "might" go.. 98.75 CLVN is a key number... I have been left at the station many times by a tic or 2 so I look at where the selling will come in and try to put my order ahead of it... 2 tics is a general rule of thumb..if it misses than I just bail at a scale point and then wait to see if it was real rejection or just responsive... So far responsive..so far.. Still holding last one... The luckk comment comes into play seince when ever I get filled at my price at a limit where we tic current HOD.. @ 98.50 with 98.25 limit... I still call luck... within my trade plan. Semantic really.. I don't believe in luck intrading..though the market can throw a bone every so often and also take a piece too.. Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Tom, if you believe 98.75 to be a key level do really think that the action so far constitutes responsive selling?

[roztom 10]

The Profile is initiative strong Open Reversal Drive + RE... I was refering to the rotation @ the CLVN 98.75 as Respnsive up there... the day type Is initiating Normal Variation... so far..

 

I will get back to trading and look forward to reading your posts... you are very knowledgable in MP.. Thanks

 

Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

The Profile is initiative strong Open Reversal Drive + RE... I was refering to the rotation @ the CLVN 98.75 as Respnsive up there... the day type Is initiating Normal Variation... so far..

 

I will get back to trading and look forward to reading your posts... you are very knowledgable in MP.. Thanks

 

Tom

 

Haha, thanks. Not sure about very, but I feel I know a decent amount. If I ever feel I'm an 'expert' I'm in trouble for sure!

 

Do you mean Open-Test-Drive or Open-Reject-Reverse? They are not quite the same things. Also, Initiative and Responsive activity refer to OTF or bigger players. They tend to move the market quickly when they see price away from value. In this case, compared to yesterday, the buying was Responsive. Compared with the Balance Profile of the last 5 days, it is possibly Responsive if you feel that the Responsive selling activity from yesterday was weak and actually the upper part of the distribution needed to be explored(developed) more or Iniative if you feel that value has moved ahead of price already, although you'd expect that the range to be extended to the up side in this case. While it hasn't so far, we won't know until either it does or the market closes within the current range and probably retraced a reasonable amount.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just for clarity on the Initiative possibility, I say this because often moves originate from close to the POC/VPOC of a balance. Normally I feel it's more useful to look for Initiative/Responsive activity on extremes.

[roztom 10]

OPen Test Drive.. I suspect that since this is a Teaching thread that I should watch my terminology in the strict definition sense... Whether it is Initiating or Responsive Buying is not of concern to me since OTF is active on the buy side and the buying was strong and IB wide... I "suspect that yest HOD might be taken out which may lead to the 1304 -1307 level if we break out of this balance area... However we could also fail from here or yesterdays high... We are still churning in the current upper balance area so I am thinking going up but must wait and see... Held the 96.00 ish area with a 95.50 low so far. Still holding one contract...long.. Thanks for clarifying my terms... I am forgetful.. I have forgotten the specific definitions and have morphed them into my own shorthand..Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

Lol. No worries. Where are you wrong do you think?

[roztom 10]

Under 92.00 my last contract is the "Hail Mary Pass".. Also if the structure looks right I will add back..but I would like to see if we take out E period low and how we behave at the DVAL... 50% retracement... if we get there.. We just tested yest VPOC & VWAP..so interesting spot @ 10:42 cst. Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

92.50 also falls at the pretty much the prior balance high from Thurs and is a Balance low volume price. The symmetry of it all is elegant at times.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Btw we have just bounced of the VWAP/38.2% ret area fyi.

[roztom 10]

Yes I am watching for an add there but...weak response so far just tested it again, key right now or more work to downside.. Tom

 

I added 96.00 since I believe there is some fuel above yest HOD& we held VWAP & Yest VPOC... Helmet on...

 

This is not a trade recommendation... just FYI.. I do not know if I should post any of that... no real reason to.. I guess..let me know.. Tom

 

Add: I am targeting the CLVN @ 98.75 for this add..

 

Filled@ 11:23 cst @ 98.75..still holding 1 targeting 1300 area... Tom

Edited January 18, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

Just had a scalp long... boy do I ever take profit early.

 

But, must say entry was about as perfect as they get. 1 tick heat. Tried a long earlier at 95.75 but closed BE when it showed failure.

 

Found support at, where else but where the most interest was found to buy before... profile is just from move up... on this time frame (minutes to an hour) maybe not so important what price was important over the last few years, but just the morning

[roztom 10]

That's what my 96.00 long was a scalp for 2.75 pts but I still have long from way down and trailing stops Will watch for CHVN @ 1304 and CLVN @ 1307.50... I only have 1 bullet left... but... no complaints... scaled out along the way.. did the small scalp on rotation and holding 1 ...Had a loser this morning on the short side was targeting yestertday rth low and chvn 85.50...

 

Let me know if I shouldn't post any of this since I'm not sure it has any value and I'm sure when someone new shows up you should take it with a large grain of salt... and The Negotiator is the Thread Moderator - his call... Tom

[TheNegotiator 13]

The thread is for e-mini trading. Discussing market moves is useful, just don't purely state your position(or prices you have traded). We had a thread like that before and it was rubbish quite frankly!

Edited January 18, 2012 by TheNegotiator