Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[steve46 12]

Thanks Josh, Happy Holidays to you (and to all)

 

I will keep my hand in the game through the week. Historically this has the potential to be profitable...and fairly low risk (except for the possible news event).

 

Good luck

[steve46 12]

Easy couple of points on a nice little basing pattern....scan left and you see the (unsuccessful) probe down to try to find sellers...generally speaking I am going to enter right after that little move down fails.....

 

Thin trading today so I will be in small size but I expect a continued move up as long as the Italian bond news stays low key...

Edited December 27, 2011 by steve46

[steve46 12]

and here we are tagging 1263.....bringing the markets back to their (institutional) target for 2011

 

"Grus gott" to my mates in the Zurich HTGS office...nice job boys and girls.

[joshdance 10]

No reason it should not go to 1290 by Friday. If 1267 SPX holds, seems to be reasonable target. If it sells off aggressively below that, maybe different. But still very bullish.

[steve46 12]

Gratifying to me that if you read my initial posts on "An Institutional look at S&P Futures"...there were several negative comments from folks who thought the idea of "time based pivots" was nonsense....and that the concept of professionals "marking the market up" was comical...wonder if any of them are trading anything more substantial than girl scout cookies now....I am sure they would suggest this is just random chance....whatever it is, if you used it to trade, you made money...

[steve46 12]

and here's another nice reversal pattern.....a bit close to lunch hour and in a thin market

but valid nevertheless.

[steve46 12]

Close to lunch hour in NY and I am going to close this one out and get something to eat

 

pocket change...back in the afternoon

[steve46 12]

Back to work

 

Missed this one, but it is important to note that entry is off of a reversal pattern with confluence from the previous daily high (one of our time based pivots)

[TheNegotiator 13]

Happy New Year! Opening up in low volume of recent activity and clearly above end of year trading. I feel it's important to not jump right back in until we see what the lie of the land really is. ISM at 10am est and FOMC minutes at 2pm could give us a better idea.

[joshdance 10]

Hope you had a happy new year N .. welcome back and good trading in 2012!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Very very lame so far. Not unsurprising though. 2pm FOMC minutes looming.

[joshdance 10]

Very very lame so far. Not unsurprising though. 2pm FOMC minutes looming.

 

Yeah 6.75 range... blah. I did take what I think was an A+ long, 77.25, at VWAP / prior R / 50% ... held onto it hoping it would break the 80 and blow some stops, but I got out for 1 tick after it failed near the high... not much conviction for the bulls.

 

My calendar shows 2:15 .. yours different?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Bit of a move there but nothing to write home about. The defining action was when we moved up pretty well then traded sideways for just way too long. I think I'm happy to do other stuff for now though!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yesterday was pretty poor overall imo. There were some opportunities but the range was under 10 points. Volume has picked up a little overnight so we could see better trading today. Yesterday there was a poor high as well as a poor low yet the focus would probably be on failure to push up despite gap higher on open. On balance, given that Friday is NFPs I'd be leaning towards a further test of the gap at least before the release. Other than that, there are some well established levels below for the market to test. IF we were to move up, given the time of year and relative position, I'd think the market would be gunning for the psychological 1300 mark. I haven't really annotated the chart much just so you can get a feel without anything getting in the way!

 

[joshdance 10]

Waiting to see how the market will react at yesterday's low (if we test it now)... opened below yesterday's range, selling strong into the close yesterday, close on the lows. If low holds as resistance, perhaps we are in for a gap fill down to the 50s, last week's close. Just my

[TheNegotiator 13]

Waiting to see how the market will react at yesterday's low (if we test it now)... opened below yesterday's range, selling strong into the close yesterday, close on the lows. If low holds as resistance, perhaps we are in for a gap fill down to the 50s, last week's close. Just my

 

Yeah that worked well. As did the 64's. Which price do you have for the gap close though? I have 1253.00.

[joshdance 10]

Yeah that worked well. As did the 64's. Which price do you have for the gap close though? I have 1253.00.

 

Yeah I have 52.50 as last week's close for a fill, but anywhere from say 52 to 54 would do it for me. As it tested 70.25, I fully expected a rejection, and then one more test, and that second test failure would be my trigger for a short. We never got that and now we are lazily down 7 points from there. I think I'm still a little out of sync from the holiday volume, though today almost feels like a holiday still with this activity. I would have entered short immediately but I got no good volume confirmation. So, I sit here and watch my idea work without me in it :missy:

 

With the nature of this action right now I'm not sure we have the pressure to push all the way to 53, maybe only 60s. I have a zone marked from 59.50 to 60.75 but don't know why I marked it (I like to delete my profiles and such after marking the zone so I don't have to re-think why I marked it every time I look at it). But buyers still not really showing up much yet.

[joshdance 10]

SPX has hit this area, may see a decent bounce

[TheNegotiator 13]

27.2% ex on IB. Often means move hasn't really got legs and could show a decent move back. We did have an auction opening type in fairness although even though this action is fairly expected, it's still a bit lame so far.

[joshdance 10]

27.2% ex on IB. Often means move hasn't really got legs and could show a decent move back. We did have an auction opening type in fairness although even though this action is fairly expected, it's still a bit lame so far.

 

Agreed, quite lame... I'm finding the volume to be very difficult to read. Almost as if the market says, "let's just reverse here, or not, doesn't really matter" ... not much conviction, and hence not clear enough footprints for me to observe. Trends have been clear once they began (down after first half hour) but not much indication I can see regarding timing.

 

EDIT: then again, I have been not very focused as I would like to today so far, so perhaps it's crystal clear, and my focus is off.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just step back then. I would say that given we tested a decent profile low volume price then yesterday's low and couldn't get back into its range, we might have expected a bit more of a push, especially once 64's were taken out. Not a great deal of expansion of the IB range before a break back into it. Could mean sellers aren't that confident or just aren't there right now. Same could be said for buyers although they will try to move it higher until any opposition pressure comes in. I suspect this may end up being a neutral day already although time will tell.

[TheNegotiator 13]

The open is the caveat price on this idea though(after mid was taken).

[TheNegotiator 13]

Btw, the mid is currently the VWAP and pretty much the overnight low. That should say something for the decisiveness of the market currently.

[joshdance 10]

The open is the caveat price on this idea though(after mid was taken).

 

You mean that if the open is rejected, that range could be extended down?

[joshdance 10]

Btw, the mid is currently the VWAP and pretty much the overnight low. That should say something for the decisiveness of the market currently.

 

Meaning, it's not very decisive right?