Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well it's QUADRUPLE WITCHING today, meaning possible increased volatility due to multiple options expiries coinciding. Yesterday didn't really do much in the end as there wasn't any appetite to move beyond 2 useful reference points. Those were and still are 1220 and 1198 areas. It's important to note that while the econ releases are over with pretty much, there are a whole host of speakers today. Probably a day to nip in and out of the market taking what you can here and there. There's also a chance that something could happen to motivate a big move, but we'll just have to see what happens.

 

Here's a chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

A point I'd suggest you look at in your trade management Josh, is when you move your stop. For example(and I'll have to take another look at it later), when you sold 13.50 yesterday, it was against the move up. When you moved your stop, the move up hadn't for certain actually finished. So nothing having changed, is there any point in moving your stop? A point or two is simply the flow of a move and doesn't necessarily constitute a change.

[joshdance 10]

Thanks buddy; I know that my management is poor many times. When I trade poorly, the thing that is common every time is that I am impulsive, I enter too quickly, and make the stops too large. So my "overmanagement" is probably overcompensating for what I do when I do poorly. When I do well, even when I have these kinds of stopouts, I usually manage to make money, due to the fact that I never dig much of a hole to begin with, and come from a better place psychologically for the rest of the day or week. So, I think this is why I mismanage--to reduce risk. While it's not logical, it psychologically beats the alternative (letting a trade go way in profit and then letting it come all the way for my stop, for example, as I've done before).

[TheNegotiator 13]

Look where we opened again!

 

Josh I think what that is, is trading based on price activity. As a suggestion, if you trade in unplanned places based on activity, make it a scalp. That trade, you'd have taken a point or so and been happy with it even though it went further. When you have a plan(and by that I mean objective and non-emotional planning pre-open), give it room to breath.

[TheNegotiator 13]

There is a trade I just took. Wasn't absolutely confident given open test-drive(at this point anyway) but I thought it'd be useful to try at 1220.25 again. Shorted it on 2nd test(and 1 tick fail) with a point stop, but wanted to see a fairly quick reaction and trade thru 19.25. It just kinda sat there so I exited for a scratch. Would've been stopped already even though we've now turned around. Can't win them all, but if the reaction had been there we could have seen a fairly quick move to close the gap(and we may still do).:crap: Oh well though. I had my reasons for being cautious today and am happy I traded it in that way.

[TheNegotiator 13]

The VPOC held as a nice base for that move there, but I was out already. As I mentioned before, I have no problem taking something here, something there today. Anyway, a breakdown of my last trade for Josh.

 

[joshdance 10]

Thanks for the chart N -- I also put in a bid at the low but this was after it went above 18 at which point it was too late. I tried a short scalp for -0.75, but just now took a short on the fake up to 23.25 / vpoc, and took a +1.50 scalp from it. I've had a very good week (yesterday only small losing day), and don't want to get witched today, so I'm being cautious. Interesting little battle right now... bids holding, but then offers holding. Not a place I want to have a position right now unless my trade is risk free in the money already.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thanks for the chart N -- I also put in a bid at the low but this was after it went above 18 at which point it was too late. I tried a short scalp for -0.75, but just now took a short on the fake up to 23.25 / vpoc, and took a +1.50 scalp from it. I've had a very good week (yesterday only small losing day), and don't want to get witched today, so I'm being cautious. Interesting little battle right now... bids holding, but then offers holding. Not a place I want to have a position right now unless my trade is risk free in the money already.

 

If you are happy with your week, you are already starting to go into non-trading mode. Don't let it suck you back in unless you see something you really like. Otherwise, reward yourself with an early finish. Well played mate.

[joshdance 10]

If you are happy with your week, you are already starting to go into non-trading mode. Don't let it suck you back in unless you see something you really like. Otherwise, reward yourself with an early finish. Well played mate.

 

Part of the discipline I've tried REALLY hard to focus on this week is simply watching and sitting, and not forcing anything. I've taken probably 15-18 trades this week, and only 2 of them were utterly stupid entries. This means I've gotten better at waiting, and sometimes I overdo it and miss a move, but as I've heard it said, I'd rather be watching the market wishing I was in it, than in it and wishing I was flat! Part of the discipline I will continue for the rest of today is simply watching, waiting, and being patient. If I make it through the rest of today without taking a trade which I could label as "forced" or "impatient" or similar, then I will consider it a very successful week, regardless of profit or loss.

 

Additionally, I will feel much better going into Monday morning having witnessed how the story today unfolds. Not just looking at the chart after the fact, but sitting here as I do every day and letting the market tell me a story. When I miss part of the story, it makes it more difficult for me to get back in sync the next day or later in the day. I'm sure this will change as I get more used to trading and as I get more experience, but for now the more screen time the better, as long as I don't use that time for self-sabotage and stupidity. Though, I may very well go for a nice walk outside over lunch time

[TheNegotiator 13]

This is what it's about. Anyone who wants to learn something should really understand what has just been said. If you don't now, you will later believe me.

 

You should put this in the favourite sayings thread!

 

I'd rather be watching the market wishing I was in it, than in it and wishing I was flat!

 

 

Favorite Trading Sayings / Quotes

[joshdance 10]

On a related note, someone the other day was talking about how he missed the big down day in crude oil this week because of other obligations, and how he had total peace about missing it, whereas in the past he would have almost rather lost money trying than to not be there for it.

 

When I first started trading I felt the same way--if I was not at the screen and it was a big day, I would be so upset. Then sitting there day after day when I started, I realized that being there when it moves is no guarantee that one will make money Seeing those big moves go by while having the ability to be in them, or worse, fading those big moves and losing money, made me realize that a good trader will make money (or not lose much) regardless of whether the market is moving or relatively sideways. I was not and still not there yet consistently, but it was quite eye opening.

 

On an ES note, nice little drop we're having here. Am I at peace for covering my 23 short at 21.50? Absolutely. Of course, I'd love to still be short, but that was the trade. Bull dominated up day, and buying came in strong at 21, so I'm out with my profit. Will be interesting to see what happens rest of today.

[joshdance 10]

Hope your evening was good -- despite missing the huge move due to an early exit, I am happy with my psychological state throughout the day, and all this week. I took 1 more trade today for +1.00, so made +1.75 today. I pretty much shut down with about 45 minutes to the close, and just watched a bit. Have a great weekend N and everyone.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah I didn't bother any more either. Glad you had a good week and I hope everyone has a great weekend!

[steve46 12]

Hope you both have a nice weekend as well

 

Before closing shop for the weekend I wanted to post this chart

 

You may see a resemblance to one (or more) of my previous posts.

 

It is another afternoon range trade example

 

and as mentioned previously my strategy remains "hit it until they make you pay"

 

and as before we have the same "double taps" (entry on the second "tap" of the range extreme)

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good morning on what is start of the last trading week before Xmas! A couple of really important points to note from Friday. First off, we failed the extreme end of an underdeveloped area in the current balance profile at the high 1225. The area runs between 15.75 to 25.00 with a few ticks either side for comfort. The other point is that although we moved down, Friday's low was again higher and the bulk of its profile was also higher. Today, on the upside(if indeed this is the way we move) I'd like to see the top end of this underdeveloped area challenged and possibly breached and also a close above the low end. If you want to see how the Kim Jong-il news is or isn't affecting ES, take a look at it compared to for example DX,CL,ZN. Anyway, not much scheduled for release so let's see what happens!

 

 

Good luck!!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Wow, what a dazzling IB we've had! 5.25 point range in what has been the smallest IB since 7/7 I believe. 1 decent chance to sell the overnight volume poc at 1218.00 really. Anything for anyone else?

[steve46 12]

Good morning

 

A predictable low volume day (we can expect more of this until the holiday is over)

 

and on a low volume day, we can also expect certain patterns to display among them the

"basing pattern"

 

This one exhibits the same characteristics as all of them....an initial move down to an area of support (this one on a wide range bar/candle) then a series of wicks creating a ledge, followed by a probe down to look for sellers.....when the probe down fails, you have a series of entry points (as shown by green arrows to the right of the probes down...good for a couple of points

 

At the top you have an aborted move up, stopped because Fitch decided to downgrade France

 

news trumps everything in this market, so you better be in the loop when you trade....I prefer Bloomie, but its up to the individual

 

Good luck in the afternoon

Steve

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good morning

 

A predictable low volume day (we can expect more of this until the holiday is over)

 

and on a low volume day, we can also expect certain patterns to display among them the

"basing pattern"

 

This one exhibits the same characteristics as all of them....an initial move down to an area of support (this one on a wide range bar/candle) then a series of wicks creating a ledge, followed by a probe down to look for sellers.....when the probe down fails, you have a series of entry points (as shown by green arrows to the right of the probes down...good for a couple of points

 

At the top you have an aborted move up, stopped because Fitch decided to downgrade France

 

news trumps everything in this market, so you better be in the loop when you trade....I prefer Bloomie, but its up to the individual

 

Good luck in the afternoon

Steve

 

Absolutely have to expect low vol until after hols, but that doesn't mean markets can't move still. Like you said, the fact is news is the overriding factor right now and politicians, central bankers etc. aren't on holiday yet! The key is to realise that the recent mechanics of price action might not quite follow over this period. For example, last week it was also evident that the market would 'build a base' and accumulate trade over a range after a move. But then it would, on more than a couple of occasions, push through and extend.

 

I think this is an important point for anyone looking at a strategy and it is basically max drawdown. So when analyzing a strategy's negative results, it's important to see how concentrated the results are.

 

Anyway, lot's of info coming down from ECB right now and the market is(/has) reacting.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Btw, for anyone who is interested, this is one sort situation I look at fibonacci retracements on as a backup other tools. The 38.2% of the range and/or move is often tested as a gauge of whether the move may continue or not. Both come in around the first retrace attempt area around 10/10.50.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Morning everyone. Yesterday closed the range gap to 1197.25 and tested a little further before closing back above it. This may or may not turn out to be the rejection the market was looking for. The very clear downtrend(take a look at say a scrunched up 60min or so chart) can be broken today if we take (I would want) 1220 area and ideally close above. 1225 last rth swing high may also prove a good reference. Indeed we are hovering just below this area right near nyse open. Another break of 1197/98 area and I would think we'd be looking to close the gap to 1190 and possibly test 1185.50 and 1174.75. A noteworthy piece of info from yesterday was as pointed out already, this develop-break-develop-break behaviour we are seeing with very little rotation back up before pushing further. Virtually 3 separate days. Anyway, good luck and here's a chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Oh yeah I forgot to use that fantastic keyword phrase "Santa Claus Rally"!(j/k btw)

 

If we do move a decent amount higher today, that's what they'll be talking about, of that I am almost certain! Pity they won't mention it's just retracing the previous downtrend!!! Lol.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yawn. Was that the move for the day then? j/k, I'm sure there'll be some more moves but it is a bit like watching paint dry right now esp when you consider the confidence from open.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Woo! Lol. There it goes! Have a feeling it'll be very similar to yesterday.

[joshdance 10]

I hate straight up or down days...

[MightyMouse 12]

Oh yeah I forgot to use that fantastic keyword phrase "Santa Claus Rally"!(j/k btw)

 

If we do move a decent amount higher today, that's what they'll be talking about, of that I am almost certain! Pity they won't mention it's just retracing the previous downtrend!!! Lol.

 

I\Maybe if you would have asked Santa for a move up, you would be happy with the result.