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TheNegotiator

Day Trading the E-mini Futures

By TheNegotiator, in E-mini Futures

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
Looks very weak overnight... unless some strong buying comes in, I will look to short.

 

Possibly yes. But remember so far we're still in yesterday's range. It's more than possible that it'll be a sell on open, but if that doesn't happen then there are some good places to look at a short on retest if we're patient. 1235.75 looks to be key on the up side if a rally can get going. 1197.25(/98) and 1190.00 are key test down side targets.(1205.75 might be handy to have in the back of your mind too).

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Well, it didn't quite manage to close the gap but it did test the right area I mentioned before open before selling off. There's still plenty of time for it to get back above yesterday's close or test 1198 area.

 

Hope you managed that short you were looking for Josh.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
Well, it didn't quite manage to close the gap but it did test the right area I mentioned before open before selling off. There's still plenty of time for it to get back above yesterday's close or test 1198 area.

 

Hope you managed that short you were looking for Josh.

 

No trades today yet N ... not much bull strength, but sentiment seems to have changed. Don't want to get caught, so being cautious here.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
If that's true, doesn't that say that the bears are a little bit too passive considering where we are?

 

You mean that they should have already pushed it back down instead of letting it linger?

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

If it's broken out of balance and in a big gap trading void, should it really be dithering? Either traders are going home for xmas early, they are waiting for something or actually the selling conviction is less than you would think. In fairness, if OTF had joined in today, we might have tested say 1190 or there abouts. Who knows for sure though :)

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
If it's broken out of balance and in a big gap trading void, should it really be dithering?

 

I attribute the dithering somewhat to the time of day. Also, while not any selling conviction at this moment, there has been little to no buying conviction at all today until recently. And it can't keep going straight down. They need buyers to buy in, feel the pain, and then use them to help it slide down; not saying that will happen, but it's got to go up enough to rope in enough people who will later bail. If it's below 1213, sellers still in control IMO. Not saying I won't take a long if it looks right though, almost took the 06.50 long off of vpoc and IB low.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted

Frustrating. Could have left stop at 14, but after a 1 tick failure to break down at 11.25, I thought for sure (especially with the apparent urgency in which it came back up) that it was headed for 18s... instead, it breaks 1 tick above, it holds, and then down we go to my target 08.50 ... so they will only sell 250 contracts at 11, but then after it makes yet another high they'll sell 650, and then they'll sell at 10s and 09s ... brilliant.

 

I still give myself an A on the trade for waiting to get such a great price to give myself the flexibility of keeping my risk so small. Easy to say now I should not have moved my stop, but I think what happened here is not the norm, and in 3 out of 4 other cases I would have been tagged for a loss (albeit a small one). Took no heat on the trade, went in my favor 2.25, before eventually to my target of 4.75 -- always a good thing,

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

you have to be able to accept you may take a loss. just remember that the back and forth trade in ES is generally 2-3 points in a move, so 2.25 points doesn't really mean much. the focus should've been on what it is doing rather than what it might do when you are in the trade.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted

Good point N -- I reasoned that after a 1-tick failure to break the high, that it should not retrace all the way back to the high, much less go above it and do yet another 1 tick failed breakout and then go. I know 2.25 isn't much, but it was where it was at that I looked at. Either way +0.25 is better than nothing I suppose (though not much better :) )

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
Good point N -- I reasoned that after a 1-tick failure to break the high, that it should not retrace all the way back to the high, much less go above it and do yet another 1 tick failed breakout and then go. I know 2.25 isn't much, but it was where it was at that I looked at. Either way +0.25 is better than nothing I suppose (though not much better :) )

 

Personally Josh, I hold much more store in 1 tick fails at extremes.

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
Personally Josh, I hold much more store in 1 tick fails at extremes.

 

The prior high at 13.25 does not count as an extreme to you? Except for the fake run up first thing at the open, this was the most major swing high of the day.. ? Granted, it's not HOD, or extreme relative to larger swings, but intraday it looks like a major area to me. And turns out it was actually.

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