Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

If anyone is interested, here's the live stream:-

 

live ecb stream

[joshdance 10]

Thanks very much for this N -- I don't try to trade off the news per se, but I do like to know the relative gist of it. Good skill and luck today! I did take a +1.75 scalp earlier here near the bottom, but pretty quiet on the open here so far...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Anyone notice how defined that volume 'ledge' was there? Kinda the same as yesterday but reversed.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Although we reached 1224 nearly yesterday(which was the important 29.75 before roll), I suspect that actually the downside divide to close the gap is going to be at 1217.75 or there abouts. The large gap(1190.00 - 1223.25) actually was created by gapping above this price and clearly for the most part at that time the market was predominantly driven by activity(from the co-ordinated dollar liquidity program announcement if I remember). We are sitting a little higher overnight so far although moving lower right now. Michigan is at 10am EST and that can certainly shake things up. For me, if it can hold above 35.50 there's a good chance it'll try to take 24's out. If that happens, rather than looking at the 11/30 low 20.75 as all important, I feel it could need to test 1217.75 area as a dividing line in the recent balance profile.

 

[joshdance 10]

morning N -- you re-download your continuous contract data already I assume?

[TheNegotiator 13]

morning N -- you re-download your continuous contract data already I assume?

 

Yup, switched yesterday. But you probably could've waited until today.

[joshdance 10]

Yup, switched yesterday. But you probably could've waited until today.

 

Yeah I was still on Z yesterday, volume was still quite a lot larger; today H is higher, and yesterday 4:30pm EST was official time H became front month contract according to CME.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Double distribution day on Friday and we like those

 

It basically mirrored the 2 main developments in the current short term 7 day(now 8 day) balance profile. This gives us clear reference points and suggests we are still undecided as to which way to move. For me, failure to take out 1261.25 today(or possibly tomorrow) after a strong up day on Friday would be quite negative. Then, it would be a 'look out below' for a break below 1224/1218 areas. The other option of course is we hang out in this area for a while longer.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Although that was a drive lower from open there, ES only took out Friday's low by a tick. Let's see what happens next.

[joshdance 10]

Unfortunately I don't see enough buyer participation yet to consider a long, though this area is my buy area.

[joshdance 10]

I would wager a guess that 1225-1223 would come if this area doesn't hold.. don't see much reason for buyers to really step in before then

[TheNegotiator 13]

The profile has developed a little so buyers must've stepped in to some extent. Not aggressively, but they have stepped in.

[joshdance 10]

stops run, now more ready to move up than before, not that it will... 18K contracts in 1 minute.. that's the kind of participation i am looking for

[joshdance 10]

Only 125 contracts sold below the IB low...

 

EDIT:

Yet last weeks' low is just a few points below, and buyers not really running with it yet, tells me maybe they are waiting for a better buy...

Edited December 12, 2011 by joshdance

[TheNegotiator 13]

It hasn't really got anywhere interesting yet imo and the movement kinda sucks. Moves down quickly the stops dead. Volume accumulates, then it goes again. Right now for example, the VPOC has moved lower again indicating buyers are suppressing the move. Maybe 30-31 at least to test. But I'm not all that confident of that given the movement so far.

[joshdance 10]

Had a nice trade this afternoon N, long 22.25, and out 29.75 for +7.50 .. came close to being stopped out but survived and happy to take just that one trade today! I waited for that long all day but it was worth it Patience paid off, now imagine that... maybe I'll learn?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Had a nice trade this afternoon N, long 22.25, and out 29.75 for +7.50 .. came close to being stopped out but survived and happy to take just that one trade today! I waited for that long all day but it was worth it Patience paid off, now imagine that... maybe I'll learn?

 

Very nice Josh! You have already learnt. Maybe in future you can do.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I'm not really going to be able to trade myself today. So I also won't comment too much on the market either. But, I would say that 1238 area looks like it'll be important. Tested overnight so far and hasn't broken through yet. IF it does, target would be 51 area. For this to play out I would think it would be nice to hold above 32 area.

[TheNegotiator 13]

One more thing I should mention is that we hung around that low for a good while yesterday. So there's a decent chance that over the next few sessions it'll be tested again.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Nice reply to the 80% rule Josh with a study of actual stats! I don't suppose the OP will ever reply or ever even looks at replies(or indeed is the purported character in question!). Anyway, well slapped down basically :applaud:

[joshdance 10]

Nice reply to the 80% rule Josh with a study of actual stats! I don't suppose the OP will ever reply or ever even looks at replies(or indeed is the purported character in question!). Anyway, well slapped down basically :applaud:

 

Thanks--IRT has the tools, so why not put it to use

[TheNegotiator 13]

Exactly! I am intruiged actually as to what the new features in the 10.5 beta will be...

 

Before assessing yesterday, take a look at this longer term chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Important place we're at right now as you can see. It looks like this is going to be tested once again around open. This could well be a key, key day. Big selling post FOMC yet it closed above key highlighted area and back in the 9-day balance. If we move up, there could be some trapped shorts. If we move down, it could signal perception has shifted again(not that this hasn't happened a fair amount recently).

 

Take a look at the chart for a breakdown of yesterday's action(major).

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just another thing to bear in mid when looking at delta. There was potentially a good deal of positions being rolled into Mar fully as shown by OI in the DB:-

 

[joshdance 10]

Looks very weak overnight... unless some strong buying comes in, I will look to short.