Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Decided to stay a little more solo and quiet today. Took a nice short at 52, out at 47.50, and another short later at 52, out 50 even. I had 4 losers as well, but fortunately kept them pretty small so netted 3 points. I shorted 58 at the top but got scared and was out for -0.25 on that trade, and so wished I had stayed in it longer. Of all my trades, two were dumb--forced and not well thought out. The other two losers were quite good premises and could have gone either way. Overall not a bad performance today, however, not great either. The best part though is that I traded the short side successfully. I did have a great long setup near the close of the day that I took that didn't work, but probably would have worked on any other day than a Friday.

 

Hope yours was a good day too, and enjoy your weekend! N, any time you (or anyone) wishes to share a chart at the end of the day with the trades you took (or just mention them), it would always be appreciated. The charts before the day are great, but how you traded some of the day's activity would also be great info.

[TheNegotiator 13]

N, any time you (or anyone) wishes to share a chart at the end of the day with the trades you took (or just mention them), it would always be appreciated. The charts before the day are great, but how you traded some of the day's activity would also be great info.

 

Hmm, maybe. I'm not totally sure posting all of your trades is going to be productive as such(sometimes quite a few trades) but also, I can see that posting reasons why certain trades were taken or passed on might be useful. I have tried to slip a few of those in recently though .

[TheNegotiator 13]

Another Monday! Although trade was moving down on Friday, most of the volume remained above the 48.50 and Thurs range. Overnight trade has been higher so far and it looks like we may trade higher today(but who knows!). A couple of figs out at 10am EST (ISM non-Man, Fact Ord).

 

[joshdance 10]

Hope you had a good weekend N -- what exactly is the premise behind the low volume prices (at the right of your chart) being possible upside targets? Why not the heavily concentrated area of volume below it? I have a model in my head that I'm constantly working with, and this doesn't quite fit with that, and curious as to your basis for this.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hope you had a good weekend N -- what exactly is the premise behind the low volume prices (at the right of your chart) being possible upside targets? Why not the heavily concentrated area of volume below it? I have a model in my head that I'm constantly working with, and this doesn't quite fit with that, and curious as to your basis for this.

 

It's possible that'll be capped earlier at say 66.50 but we are much closer to this area already now. Plus we have kinda tested the area close to open on Fri(8:30am ish from memory) to 62.75 and yet we're back here again. Also I don't think it's very clean on the profile either. It's also possible we'll go much higher too or just sell off straight from open :rofl:

 

Edit:The high vol I was talking about actually comes in at 1266.00 for reference.

Edited December 5, 2011 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Awesome 7 point range day so far today! Btw note the high(and I did correct the price just b4 it got there!). Any thoughts about what is going on? Looking quite balanced.

[joshdance 10]

Quite the snoozer ... passed on a short signal at 65.50, which would have been a pretty okay trade given the day so far. Took a short 63.25 around 11:45 but scratched it BE a few minutes later. Good call on the upper end... not much going on here, trying to stay awake and hopefully we will get some movement. Holding just above Friday's / last week's high, but struggling to take it higher... looks a bit pitiful, but sellers even more so.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah it's pretty slow right now. sometimes though when others switch off there's a move. Possibly a 1 tick fail on the high there and if it holds it could well lead to test of other side of range.

[joshdance 10]

Buyers look very week at the high here, but problem is sellers aren't doing any better and taking advantage of it. They held the high, but right now low amount of selling, but even that low amount of selling is being held by the bids. Just sloppy day, can't remember one this dreary, even opex day.

 

edit: also, sellers will have to contend with 62.75-63.25, might not be so easy unless they really pour it on.

[TheNegotiator 13]

The 1 tick fail on the high worked well yesterday! Actually it went quite a bit further. Lots of news flowing at the moment.

 

My pre-open chart is saying to me two things.

 

1- Although the market has moved down from its open in the past two trading sessions, overall there is strength. The high yesterday was fairly poor having been tested twice failing by that tick to 1266.25 the second time. This suggests to me we are too long at the moment after a substantial move up. Remember that there are lots of uncertainties still in the market. But also being higher doesn't necessarily mean overpriced either. Inflation is high and currencies in real terms are worth less and what is ES (and obviously lots of other things) valued in? Currency. Another clue is the overnight range so far. This is not higher today so probably we are slowing on the move up. So long as Europe doesn't upset the markets too much then, what I am suggesting is a selloff before a move higher. Could be wrong though

 

[joshdance 10]

Morning N (or afternoon as the case may be ) ... I just took a scalp long at 55, out 56.75 for +1.75, good way to start the morning! Target was 59 but wanted to bank a little before the potential choppy open.

 

We have 7 straight days of increasing POC and value areas (ETH session values). Overnight it couldn't even reach 43.50 to test last week's close. So, I see lots of strength in the market right now, despite the failure yesterday. I guess the key will be what happens if/when it retests the 66.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yup. I think that 59 area looks pretty interesting from yesterday's action. Low point in dd.

[TheNegotiator 13]

The 1259 dd middle worked very well for the short there. So far profile is balanced. Looks like a break either side could be decent.

[joshdance 10]

The 1259 dd middle worked very well for the short there. So far profile is balanced. Looks like a break either side could be decent.

 

I have taken a few trades, all for about +3.25 total -- the movement is actually very clean generally, during the first hour or so anyway. Looks short right now.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I have taken a few trades, all for about +3.25 total -- the movement is actually very clean generally, during the first hour or so anyway. Looks short right now.

 

Not too shabby Josh. All about building up confidence.

[joshdance 10]

Here's a chart showing a beautiful trade opportunity. I was too chicken at the time to take it, due to my good day up to that point and being overly cautious about continuing.

 

The perfect balance of the bell curve made the break up from it confirm that it was indeed a bullish environment. Later after reaching the highs we sold back off, but have not gone below 54 which was near the lower end of that distribution.

 

By the way N, what software do you use to mark up your charts (type on them, draw lines, etc.)?

Edited December 7, 2011 by joshdance

[TheNegotiator 13]

By the way N, what software do you use to mark up your charts (type on them, draw lines, etc.)?

 

It's on my list of things to research! Right now I just use win 7 snipping tool & paint although it is quite annoying really. I know snagit is good but I refuse to pay £40 for basically easily drawing arrows on a screenshot on principle!!! Ubuntu has a really great free one but I haven't fully committed to migrating yet as it would mean I have to change platform too. The licensing software(nalpeiron I think) which Linnsoft uses just wouldn't run with Wine unfortunately. Anyway, I am certain that there either is or will be soon a better alternative!!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay I took a quick look around the internet just now and there are a few alternatives. Probably none of which are absolutely perfect but pretty good too. There are various paid for programs which I have basically flat ignored. Then there are a number of apps in the chrome app store for free if you like them. Personally, the nicest one which I think I'll try for now is Greenshot.

 

Greenshot - a free and open source screenshot tool for productivity

 

It's free opensource which is very nice too. The only thing is there are no marker style objects I can see, no pen tool and no bendy line tool

 

I will look more later.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so I kinda cheated in Greenshot today as I needed bendy lines, so I just edited it in paint after! Still, I'm cool with that for now and let's just remember it's in version 0.xxx! Hopefully it'll get better as it goes along.

 

Anyway, I don't know about anyone else, but to me ES looks heavy. Lot's of consolidation followed by a failed attempt higher just isn't too great imo. I suggest that at the very least there'll be an attempt to break it lower possibly today. However as I always say this is just my opinion. Anything can and will happen so we have to read it as it happens!!!

 

Here's the chart:-

 

[joshdance 10]

The perfect tool for screenshots is Jing -- free, has arrows, text, etc. And you can use their server if you choose. The only thing missing is a pen tool so I can't draw lines or bendy lines. That's why I was curious. So, if you want great capture, try Jing. I was just wondering about the lines though...

 

In Jing, I set my keyboard shortcut to CTRL+SHIFT+C, and I hide the little "sun" and every time I want to capture I hit my hotkey and away we go... couldn't be easier, I'm a big fan.

[joshdance 10]

Anyway, I don't know about anyone else, but to me ES looks heavy. Lot's of consolidation followed by a failed attempt higher just isn't too great imo. I suggest that at the very least there'll be an attempt to break it lower possibly today. However as I always say this is just my opinion. Anything can and will happen so we have to read it as it happens!!!

 

I have the same areas marked right now as interesting -- 56.50, 43.50, 59 (from yesterday)... quite a drop we had there and rebound up... looked to be a short term bottom as the volume came in at 53, but with 19K contracts traded over 1 minute, the sellers really ate it up at 56... quite amazing actually, 2464 contracts traded there in just a few seconds .. quite a lot for pre-market. Looked like a new spike or something, but AFAIK it wasn't.

[TheNegotiator 13]

The perfect tool for screenshots is Jing -- free, has arrows, text, etc. And you can use their server if you choose. The only thing missing is a pen tool so I can't draw lines or bendy lines. That's why I was curious. So, if you want great capture, try Jing. I was just wondering about the lines though...

 

In Jing, I set my keyboard shortcut to CTRL+SHIFT+C, and I hide the little "sun" and every time I want to capture I hit my hotkey and away we go... couldn't be easier, I'm a big fan.

 

1- I dislike Jing as the editor is not too flexible. 2 - I am not a fan of the whole series(TS). They are overpriced and I just don't accept that. If you have a great programme then lots of people will buy it if you price it fairly. So on principle I won't use their software although it is good. If there was no alternative, of course I'd have to grin and bear it. But that's not the case.

 

Snagit is very good but as I said before, I won't pay £40 for software which takes a screenshot and then allows me to annotate it.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I have the same areas marked right now as interesting -- 56.50, 43.50, 59 (from yesterday)... quite a drop we had there and rebound up... looked to be a short term bottom as the volume came in at 53, but with 19K contracts traded over 1 minute, the sellers really ate it up at 56... quite amazing actually, 2464 contracts traded there in just a few seconds .. quite a lot for pre-market. Looked like a new spike or something, but AFAIK it wasn't.

 

It was indeed a news spike. Some ECB stuff I believe.

[joshdance 10]

1- I dislike Jing as the editor is not too flexible. 2 - I am not a fan of the whole series(TS). They are overpriced and I just don't accept that. If you have a great programme then lots of people will buy it if you price it fairly. So on principle I won't use their software although it is good. If there was no alternative, of course I'd have to grin and bear it. But that's not the case.

 

Snagit is very good but as I said before, I won't pay £40 for software which takes a screenshot and then allows me to annotate it.

 

Understand -- ironically, I had not tried snagit and just downloaded it right now. It's like Jing only it lets me do the bendy arrows and all that. I will trial it but $50 sounds pretty reasonable if it does conveniently what no other program can do for me.

 

So, it looks like 56 will be the upside key for me if it gets there... above that looks long to me, below that looks short. It's yesterday's VPOC but more importantly, it's the place that the big spike couldn't take out.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Understand -- ironically, I had not tried snagit and just downloaded it right now. It's like Jing only it lets me do the bendy arrows and all that. I will trial it but $50 sounds pretty reasonable if it does conveniently what no other program can do for me.

 

So, it looks like 56 will be the upside key for me if it gets there... above that looks long to me, below that looks short. It's yesterday's VPOC but more importantly, it's the place that the big spike couldn't take out.

 

True about the 56.50. As for the software, well each to their own I guess. Personally I don't find anything especially inconvenient about greenshot and will support its development by using it. I do think snagit is a rip-off (at least for what I would use it for). Would you buy a beer for $50 if there was no other pub open at the time or maybe it was just an unfamiliar place to you?