Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[Colonel B 10]

there is some 1.5 love for ya. Its coming off now. Yea forget that trend trading garbage. Way better to be a full on counter trend trader

[Colonel B 10]

Yea all my trades end up that way. They are never as much as they could be. I get around that feeling by adding size.

Edited December 11, 2012 by Colonel B

[rtg 10]

i saw a few posts above about order flow and claims in regards to the inability to know what others are doing. you certainly can see order flow and if one desires, you can black box this into SQL working towards real time dashboard presentation of a certain TFs sentiment. I have a basic project that does precisely this. in the end, this is what a candle or a bar represents so it didnt seem worthwhile after some time invested. hope all are doing well w everyone. i am waiting for the dust to settle after BB's press conference

 

red is sell, blue is buy in the pic

Edited December 12, 2012 by rtg

[johnw 10]

i saw a few posts above about order flow and claims in regards to the inability to know what others are doing. you certainly can see order flow and if one desires, you can black box this into SQL working towards real time dashboard presentation of a certain TFs sentiment. I have a basic project that does precisely this. in the end, a candle does precisely this so it didnt seem worthwhile after some time invested. hope all are doing well. i am waiting for the dust to settle.

 

red is sell, blue is buy in the pic

 

T4 is a nice piece of software ... I have used it for years along with a couple of other simple ask-bid vols thingys which I apply to supply/demand zones during the day.

 

It is all blindingly simple really ..

[steve46 12]

Hey RTG

 

Nothing wrong with reading order flow....but you have to have some context in which to make your decisions....look at what just happened....PREDICTOR crows about reading a short move....then somebody decides to buy the market......and up we go....

 

No matter what software you operate from, you still get you ass kicked unless you have a bigger concept on which to base your actions.

 

I admit my bias...the guy's a putz

 

 

 

Good luck

[rtg 10]

Hey RTG

 

Nothing wrong with reading order flow....but you have to have some context in which to make your decisions....look at what just happened....PREDICTOR crows about reading a short move....then somebody decides to buy the market......and up we go....

 

No matter what software you operate from, you still get you ass kicked unless you have a bigger concept from which to work.....just one man's opinion.

 

Good luck

i agree to an extent insomuch that every position needs a reason for entry. if those reasons end up being dead wrong, so be it.. get out. there is no shame in being wrong, it happens to everyone who is actually trading -- ESPECIALLY on the outright contracts. personally, i take lots of small losses but then i will have a slew of doubles, triples and an occasional grand slams when i am feeling risky and add some ATM puts or calls on top of a few outright contracts.

 

i agree with your prior post in regards to entry, though. if you find that s+p or dow is testing a high or low outside of normal trading hours, take the trade. typically, at that point, you will find out whether or not a reversal occurs within 15-60m. i do this all the time unstopped. you can just watch PA and feel whether or not you are right.

 

T4 is a nice piece of software ... I have used it for years along with a couple of other simple ask-bid vols thingys which I apply to supply/demand zones during the day.

 

It is all blindingly simple really ..

 

agreed! T4 is superb. they have great help desk too.

[Colonel B 10]

If we get to 33.75 then the single will close and we will most likely make new lows. This may happen overnight or tomorrow. Right now the 2x is holding by 3 ticks so that could be the high for the rest of the day and it just builds in this range.

[Colonel B 10]

It looks like to me that traders are getting long the VAH and shorting the 2x. How long will it last? Can't last forever

[rtg 10]

seems to me that we are on hold until the BB press conference which starts in a few minutes.

[Colonel B 10]

seems to me that we are on hold until the BB press conference which starts in a few minutes.

 

I just saw 200 come in and another 218 come in some one is trading

 

maybe you meant you are on hold

[Colonel B 10]

33.75 closed just now. Now lets see if it hits 28 in the next 24 hours.

[rtg 10]

I just saw 200 come in and another 218 come in some one is trading

 

maybe you meant you are on hold

 

yes, I am definitely on hold. its certainly moving in respect to bernankes comments now though.

[Colonel B 10]

This post must be 20 characters.... And was changed do to another members suggestions.

Edited December 12, 2012 by Colonel B

[Predictor 11]

CB.. yeah I call these cancellation patterns. I think its a combination of liquidity providers absorbing the liquidity and then the use of the stops by small traders. But, yes what they say about the crowded trade is true. What's surprising is that it happens in all time frames... even on a scale that I couldn't trade.

 

 

 

SOOOOOOOO TRUE!!!!!!! I can post HUNDREDS of charts showing this phenomenon. I saw some one try to post some over night bar chart to refute this. LOL Its short term players moving the market not the big players. Or big players indirectly move markets. The sign for me every time I take a trade no matter what level or line or magic box I use is to see if there is a jam up of other players. So if I am wanting to get long I wait to see a ton of sellers come in at a price and then go long. This is why I mostly trade the bonds.

[johnw 10]

The spread and price have been drifting off together since 13:34 and the spread did not relent

whilst price was hooked up during B's ramblings.

 

Now they are flattening trapped between the Open and Yes High until a new Alpha Dog appears and away we go again

[Colonel B 10]

its happening right now and im trying to get pics so I can post. Stops are going to get hit. My guess right now is that we go up before we go down. But we could break and go down instead of going up. Ultimately I think down is the direction for now but maybe not right away.

[rtg 10]

yea it may look like that on the 5,10,15 min charts that you are looking at. A lot of retail guys such as yourself think that. Best place for you to be is on the sideline.

i'm glad your crystal ball is doing well. no need to be a douche bag. you will be humbled soon but i bet you won't post about it.

[Colonel B 10]

But I wish I was still on the 2x at the top. I cut my winners quick and cut my losers even quicker.

[Colonel B 10]

looks like momentum traders getting long. Bad prices ??? We will see

[Colonel B 10]

i'm glad your crystal ball is doing well. no need to be a douche bag. you will be humbled soon but i bet you won't post about it.

 

I have no crystal ball. The one thing I will do if I am wrong is admit I am wrong. I maynot post it here. My friends and family know that is one thing they can count on. If I am coming across as a D bag I am sorry its nothing personal and I will do what I can to change it.

 

My sincerest apologizes.

[Colonel B 10]

Can I ask why there is a pressing need by People here to predict price direction.

 

Okay, so much like the "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread, this thread will be for sharing ideas about future price moves of all the e-mini index futures.

Any styles or strategies are welcome, but please do your best to share the thinking behind them!

 

I think its a big deal what just happened in the ES. I am trying to show what I think is happening and what direction it will go and I am trying to get the posts in time so they are time stamped so no one says I cherry picked winners. Right before my posts the consensus was long and I wanted to post the changes so other could see what I see and possibility learn something. I am going to post pics I am taking after the move has completed..

[rtg 10]

I have no crystal ball. The one thing I will do if I am wrong is admit I am wrong. I maynot post it here. My friends and family know that is one thing they can count on. If I am coming across as a D bag I am sorry its nothing personal and I will do what I can to change it.

 

My sincerest apologizes.

i misinterpreted you. my apologies as well!

[DbPhoenix 42]

WOW seriously.

 

EGO!?!?!?!?! hey lets try figuring out the reason for the thread. Its clear you don't know what it is so ill paste it for you.

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheNegotiator »

Okay, so much like the "Reading Charts in Real Time" thread, this thread will be for sharing ideas about future price moves of all the e-mini index futures.

 

Any styles or strategies are welcome, but please do your best to share the thinking behind them!

 

There's considerable difference between predicting price moves and sharing ideas about them. Confusing the two may help account for the CYA posts which masquerade as thoughtful analysis.

 

Db

[Colonel B 10]

So far I haven't seen any cover your ass trade calls in the last 2 days. As a matter of fact I think if you look at the time stamps you will see that there is no cherry picking. Even the red dice guy who IMO I believe clearly ripped off the software he is trying to peddle didn't put up any cover your ass posts. I don't know if the guy is actually trading because I don't have access to his account but for a guy who is trying to peddle some software that is so amazing it looks like to me in the last 2 days he got hammered. I think he even said he had to stop because he took too many losers.

 

Do you go to urban dictionary? You should go there and check it out. It might help you out on your quest. Here are some examples for you.

 

1. Trolling

 

The art of deliberately, cleverly, and secretly pissing people off, usually via the internet, using dialogue. Trolling does not mean just making rude remarks: Shouting swear words at someone doesn't count as trolling; it's just flaming, and isn't funny. Spam isn't trolling either; it pisses people off, but it's lame.

 

2. Trolling

 

Trolling is trying to get a rise out of someone. Forcing them to respond to you, either through wise-crackery, posting incorrect information, asking blatantly stupid questions, or other foolishness. However, trolling statements are never true or are ever meant to be construed as such. Nearly all trolled statements are meant to be funny to some people, so it does have some social/entertainment value.

 

8. Trolling

 

deliberately arguing with complete fallacies on forums, comment threads, or message boards to get leets and other users pissed off by the troll's "ignorance."

 

JOB WELL DONE!!! or MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!!! or what ever you guys say under the bridge.

[johnw 10]

Can I ask why there is a pressing need by People here to predict price direction.

 

Actually I asked this question with serious intent because I think that this is quite a good thread.

I am a complete outsider to the trading world and I am home schooled in my trading philosophy .... it is all very different to building up and selling a Company after thirty years, but it is very similar to competitive sport.

 

What I am endeavouring to do at the moment is to bring my home schooled jargon into line with the Industry and compare my approach with that of others to see if I can continue to skew the odds in my favour ... in this regards it is exactly like competitive sport.

 

My approach to this game (and I do believe that it is a game) is to enter and exit at the supply demand zones which makes Steve 46 a person of interest.

My zones come from MP and previous zones plus the height of the previous price wave or 50% of it. and so in this respect I read Col B amongst others.

 

The exact timing of the entries /exits come from a very simple analysis of Order Flow which makes Pred a person of interest.

 

This is an approach that I have developed , honed and polished over the last four to five years, but there is always more to be done and more to be appreciated.

There is nothing clever in the few simple codes I have written and I refer to a larger TF just to keep the big picture fresh to mind, but that is all.

Every thing I do comes off one chart, because there is no higher TF of supply /demand zones since they are horizontal areas relating solely to price ... therefore they are the same on all TFs.

Same thing with OF really, we need to watch it develop and unfold.

Firstly the Limits need to be destroyed (or not) and then price will go to the opposite side of the s&d zone to it's intended direction ... because the Limits have been killed we observe the ease of movement of the OF .. this is the clue to enter.

Of course the Limits may over whelm the Attackers in which case the battle is reversed.

 

The risk to this approach is minimal. I always enter on a bracket and if the trade does not go off as I intend, I just scratch the trade.

When I add up the scratched trades at the end of the day they usually have a small positive balance ... well enough to cover coms really and so over the years I have learned to reduce my exposure to risk to a minimum.

 

Back to TL ....

I just wanted to say that I enjoy reading some of the posts, many of them actually and particularly those that trigger a thought in my mind.

 

Thank you for posting