Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[steve46 12]

yea I use Trade the news too. They dropped the ball today. I dont know of another resource out there

 

Sorry....my bad....I don't use "trade the news"....what I was trying to say is that "I trade the news constantly" (every day)...As mentioned I use Bloomie....agreeing with you that it is expensive....I don't see a reasonable alternative as of right now...

[joshdance 10]

no heads up on the house speaker speaking

 

Right, there was no heads up that he was speaking, but they announced the key news event (attached)

[joshdance 10]

I have not seen the stop run yet. After I see that (08s-10s), or if it breaks down with authority, I would consider a short (though I'm done for today). Either way, the market is certainly overextended, but that is no reason in and of itself to fade strength like this. Sure it can work, but working in the land of "likely" says to just be long, as boring as it might seem. Logic, order flow, etc., are out the window on an emotional move up on irrational hope.

[Predictor 11]

Josh, everyone should trade according to their plan. I am usually looking to get into a move that can deliver 2-3 points but sometimes will attempt to scalp for less.

 

Today, I am looking for continuation of the drive higher. Unfortunately, they ran it overnight. I'm not sure if I will be trading today but my game plan would either to be to get long on a strong drive higher off the open or buy any significant pullback.

 

I will be looking for a low/reversal in the 1403 region. My models suggest market could drive into the 1409 to 1413 range. At this time, I am weighing if the wild swings we seen yesterday were more typical of high uncertainty markets which suggest more wild swings and reversing or if we have switched to a momentum fuel rally.

 

With the market already being so extended beyond my levels.. at 1416 I am less inclined to attempt a long off the open.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So zh is claiming the spike overnight was a ff. Whether it was or it wasn't, the market has extended higher and is setting up to be potentially quite bullish. I guess that depends though on any more comments coming out from various sources about the fiscal cliff and greece/spain/europe situation.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Important levels above imo:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Quick thought. If we opened here ~14, the half gap(to close) would come in around the high from 11/7 which is the high of the cyan balance profile I have drawn.

[Colonel B 10]

I think we are going to have a day that is opposite then yesterday notes and bonds are strong and so is the spoo

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just a quick clarification on how I view gaps:-

 

Two ways

 

1) Session gap - this is RTH close to RTH open. I generally prefer it as the gap is artificial anyway. The "unauctioned" prices are point to point and it's my view that it's best to take it from the last price.

 

2) Range/Profile gap - this is a gap between the extreme of the prior RTH session and the open of the new RTH session. The gap is the "unauctioned" prices where the market has yet to trade at all.

 

I prefer 1 but I always look at both - especially when the close and high/low are not close together. I believe it also depends on the market mode we're in as to which is more likely to act as a level (and if it coincides with an important level as well).

[rtg 10]

Bias is short at current levels... risk is higher. Last update for today.

 

I feel like we're in the middle of chop right now. I am fairly new to trading the s&p but i would be far more comfortable selling into waning strength around 1425

 

also, I wanted to extend gratitude for talking about TradeTheNews. I am currently in a trial and it certainly seems to be an invaluable tool for trading ES!

[TheNegotiator 13]

democrats comfortable going over the fiscal cliff - boehner

[TheNegotiator 13]

democrats comfortable going over the fiscal cliff - boehner

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Updated chart for the day so far:-

 

 

Note yesterday's close was where it turned.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just an observation, but if the mid/open/VAL/VWAP area 12.75-13.50 cannot be retaken the current low at 1407.00 is in danger of being broken imho. But trade what you see and what does happen. :missy:

[joshdance 10]

Note to Washington: get your sh*t together so these fickle markets can get back to normal. No progress, go down, progress, go up. Reminds me of how much I hated the greece situation where markets would go up or down on a speaker walking up to a microphone.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Note to Washington: get your sh*t together so these fickle markets can get back to normal. No progress, go down, progress, go up. Reminds me of how much I hated the greece situation where markets would go up or down on a speaker walking up to a microphone.

 

I love it! You just have to be nimble and disciplined. Plus, even if you don't actually like this type of movement, it's exactly the kind of shake up the markets need to get them trading nicely again (not that they haven't been).

[Colonel B 10]

yea it bounced off the 1.5 IB but man you are killing me with this range.

[steve46 12]

"Not inclined to go short"....?

 

here is my chart for the day

 

I use a basic distribution to frame previous market action....the horizontal lines show the overnight....arrows show the "stopping points" (areas where a trend move is likely to start or stop)....the 30 min chart makes it easy to see.

 

I've talked about pre-positioning many times....this is what a lot of professionals are doing in order to keep from getting whipped around (its really a risk management tool). In this case the pre-position opportunity occurred between 5:30 and 6am prior to the open.

 

After that its a matter of skill. if you are right about market direction you know it right away and you have the option to scale out or hold as you see fit until you meet your profit goals.

 

The goal is to pull the trigger once (or as few times as possible), to be right about trend direction early, and to manage risk such that you don't take more than a 2 pt hit when you are wrong...the rest is just math...and having enough discipline to execute without hesitating (on both sides).

[MightyMouse 12]

I am not trading in the space that you guys are trading in, but, but, and but I do not see any reason to be short.

[steve46 12]

I am not trading in the space that you guys are trading in, but, but, and but I do not see any reason to be short.

 

Well, every year is different, but seasonally the folks who have the capital to move markets like to make their bonus money....and the way they max that bonus out is to take the market north at this time of year. The other side is the "cliff" and Europe...news relating to either has the potential to take things south quickly.....thats what folks in this profession have to deal with...(and thats why I close my position every afternoon)...

[Colonel B 10]

short wrong short wrong short wrong short wrong all the way up. no rotation for 5 points

good times

[johnw 10]

short wrong short wrong short wrong short wrong all the way up. no rotation for 5 points

good times

 

hi there,

 

What can you see at 33 that makes you say this.

I can see 31.5 being a speed bump or a possible short

[Predictor 11]

Colonel B... could be right. It is not my favorite trade but keep in mind I'm only trying to get a couple points. I typically try to see at least 3 points potential but if required I will take 1 or 2 points even.

 

Keep in mind most of the drive up was overnight...

----

Nope, I think CB is right. This is a momentum fueled market. Stopped out. Reloaded. This will be my last attempt. its been a while since I've seen a market like this.

 

What's happening is that the selling waves aren't able to push the market lower...

Edited December 11, 2012 by Predictor

[Colonel B 10]

yep they ran some stops into areas that are trader areas. This is one of those days where you get whacked a few times and foolishly hold on to make it up.

Edited December 11, 2012 by Colonel B

[joshdance 10]

What can you see at 33 that makes you say this.

 

Look at the cash index attached pic.

 

Not surprised at all the shorts. Human nature to want to be right and sell the top leads to massive stop runs like we saw going into 34 (60,000 traded in 60 seconds). Just buy and let the market pay you. No need to play chess when the market is giving you a game of checkers.