Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

After that, resistance comes in at 96.50 which is also conveniently(!!) the IB low.

[slick60 10]

Here is a snap of my interpretation of Peter Steildlmeyer's concept of "strip analysis". I follow the ES et al with 15 minute brackets. In this snap is a clear example of what is setting up to be a "V" bottom at this time. Note the deep new low of the bar, where the bar opened and where it closed. If it was to continue lower then the close should be below the HVN. It tells me that in the least we are at a reaction low level,

Hope this may help some traders to utilize their market profile perhaps in a different way.

 

2012-11-07_1216 - slick60's library

 

slick60

 

Thought I would just add a composite follow-up chart to one I posted last weeK

http://screencast.com/t/ZxVCNet9

Edited November 7, 2012 by slick60

[TheNegotiator 13]

This seems like people are anticipating a reversal from this 95-97 area too much to me. Either we don't get there just yet and rotate lower to find more buyers or we smash straight through it

[TheNegotiator 13]

This seems like people are anticipating a reversal from this 95-97 area too much to me. Either we don't get there just yet and rotate lower to find more buyers or we smash straight through it

 

Midpoint is also at 97.50 and a prior session vpoc is at 98.50 after that. Psychologically, they might want to retest the figure if we do push on.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Playing with Zigzag indicator whilst waiting for the market to make it's move:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Midpoint is also at 97.50 and a prior session vpoc is at 98.50 after that. Psychologically, they might want to retest the figure if we do push on.

 

market is working on that 98.50 now...

[TheNegotiator 13]

amazingly, cumulative delta is nearly back to 0 too!! (and we still haven't had a 3 point or larger selling rotation since the 84 low was put in just after 11:30am)

[TheNegotiator 13]

Can you suggest me how can I color my font for the post?TheNegotiator

 

The option is there when you click "Post Reply" above the text entry box.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Further sell-off yesterday and a thrust even lower overnight suggests the possibility of a negative RTH session today. Who knows for sure though. Support could come in between 60-70 centred around 66.50 possibly. Or the nature and speed of the move lower so far could see us scythe through these levels.

 

Concern over the fiscal cliff and Greek shenanigans definitely look to have OTF liquidating to me. So what would the ultimate target be? On days which have the potential to move big (and I did say potential - ach, just as we could sell off we could also get responsive buying pushing us right back up) I like to zoom out and look for bigger possible targets. If you can imagine it, it's possible we could reach it. You must be able to shift mental gears if a sell-off (or rally) of magnitude gets underway. Below the 1366.50 the next logical test area is the 2012 midpoint 1354.25 and 2012 VPOC 1351.25. This is just a target area and shouldn't be used to think "where can I get long". If we trend lower and sell hard that area would make the range (if we opened around 68) well under 20 points which is not particularly a big range. Yes it could bounce there once then pummel through on the 2nd test but you just don't know.

 

Anyway, I've put a chart together outlining some possible logical targets to the downside:-

 

 

Make sure you stick to your plan and your max risk. It could be a brilliant or a terrible day. Good luck.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Anyone else have any thoughts today or is it just me?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Open auction out of range - careful on break either side

[TheNegotiator 13]

The open auction out of range is often a good indicator of what might happen next - especially when anticipation is high. Clearly from the action from open we had a fair number of sellers, but there were a good number of buyers. The break higher gave sellers a problem and we see the consequence of that now. This doesn't mean buy because it will trend up all day. It could do. It could also run into resistance at 84.75 and make new lows. We'll have to see...:missy:

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so I did a post today over in the Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion thread showing the bigger picture context of what has been going on in 2012 in regards to the progression of balances and reaction to subsequent developments created.

 

My view is we probably need to go lower at some point but we could look back up first. Having said that, although we may have rejected that 66 area overnight, the push back higher has left a little to be desired and at the moment we are hovering around friday's low. Will be interesting to see where we open.

 

More talk overnight on fiscal cliff but major importance is Greece. Rumours are that they'll be given €44bl in one lump sum and they have confirmed they'll be given until 2016 to meet budget deficit targets. The final decision on the next tranche of aid is said to be delayed until 20th Nov. Could be a news/rumour day which could well be dangerous. ACH though. German ZEW survey missed earlier (-15.7 exp -10.0) but no major releases for US today. Merkel, Stournaras (Greek finance minister), Monti & Cameron and Yellen are speaking today.

 

Here's a chart:-

 

[slick60 10]

[quote=TheNegotiator;1

 

 

More talk overnight on fiscal cliff but major importance is Greece. Rumours are that they'll be given €44bl in one lump sum and they have confirmed they'll be given until 2016 to meet budget deficit targets. The final decision on the next tranche of aid is said to be delayed until 20th Nov. Could be a news/rumour day which could well be dangerous. ACH though. German ZEW survey missed earlier (-15.7 exp -10.0) but no major releases for US today. Merkel, Stournaras (Greek finance minister), Monti & Cameron and Yellen are speaking today.

 

 

Hi N

Do you not consider the federal budget balance at 2pm EST to be of importance?

 

slick60

[TheNegotiator 13]

 

Hi N

Do you not consider the federal budget balance at 2pm EST to be of importance?

 

slick60

 

Not especially, but given the fiscal cliff it could become important to watch maybe.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so today focus is likely Retail Sales in a few minutes exp -0.2% prv +1.1% - this is expected to have dropped due to hurricane Sandy. Then the FOMC minutes are due later on. Oh yeah, Europe is kinda striking too :helloooo: Angela :doh:

 

Here's a chart pre-retail sales:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

-0.3% .

[TheNegotiator 13]

prev +1.1% was revised to +1.3% ppi -0.2% exp +0.2%

[TheNegotiator 13]

So yesterday we basically rejected the test lower of that important 1366.50 area. Perhaps tellingly though, the rally faltered and we closed barely higher. There seemed to be little consensus on 'value' given the lack of symmetry in the profile and three areas seemed to dominate:- 1384.00, 1379.75, 1371.25. It may well be worth watching out for these areas again today as this is probably where otf were trading. On the upper extreme of the session, 1384.75 didn't quite hold accurately although on the long-term profile the low volume price did move to 85.75 (just two ticks below the high) so I'm counting this as a hold. it looks like 1374.00 could well play a role at least early on as this was the high (and start) of a leg lower into yesterday's close and the overnight vpoc at least currently.

 

My view is we probably won't do a great deal until after the fomc minutes although we could see some sort of test one way or the other before falling back to 'value' (somewhere between 70-80).

 

Anyone have any thoughts today or any questions or just disagree with what I've written?

[TheNegotiator 13]

overnight vpoc is not 76.00 which is also a swing high from yesterday afternoon

[TheNegotiator 13]

Open auction in range (OAIR) near the centre of the 4 day range - means a move away from value is probably not imminent (or if the balance has developed sufficiently it could well mean the opposite).

[TheNegotiator 13]

test of ovenight vpoc/rth open/mid/vpoc area just failed - possible gap close? business inv @10am

 

(session gap i.e. to yesterday's close (71.75))

[TheNegotiator 13]

business inventories slightly higher at 0.7% exp 0.6% - in line with worse retail sales post Sandy?

[TheNegotiator 13]

1363.75 is a minor high volume price on the long-term profile, 64.00 is the 27.2% IB extension and 63.50 is the 24 hr low from last friday. Could be worth a look for the market...

 

edit: 63.75 is also a naked close from 8/1

[TheNegotiator 13]

Earlier I mentioned I expected that it could well balance into the FOMC minutes. It's important to recognise that this is what I had felt upto a point but we can never know what will happen. Being adaptable to what does happen is of paramount importance.

 

This is what I was looking at:-