Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[slick60 10]

I day trade the emini using an 8 range chart, some technical indicators and follow the market generated information on a 15 min MP chart. I always spend considerable time over each weekend trying to do a top-down analysis of the market in ways that I follow the market to give me some guidance going forward into the next trading week. I share below that analysis which consists of a composite MP profile of the last auction from the June 3 low. Also included is a daily candlestick chart of the move with an Elliott wave count on it and Delta cycle points. I have tried to color code points of reference on both charts.

I am still trying to learn how to read these charts from behind the screen to determine what the market makers plans are in order to trade with them. They do control and move the market to their pocket books in their business plan.

I see a turn either in or upon us with the U.S. election this week. 1387.50 appears to me as a critical level to hold for a possible reversal. However as JD says .... but, ACH (Anything Can Happen) :-)

 

2012-11-03_0830 - slick60's library

 

Good trading folks

 

slick60

[slick60 10]

Over the weekend I stumbled upon a site of Martin Cole's - Market Makers course. I totally believe in the markets being moved and manipulated by these traders, consortiums, banks et al and it is not paranoia on my part. If you believe other here is a snap of a bit of your competition.

2012-01-13_1625 - slick60's library

We had an interesting week behind us which was enhanced by Hurricane Sandy leading into the market makers' opportunity of N.F.P. day on Nov 2nd. I am sure these ruthless "B.....ds" licked their lips seeing the high probabilty chance of enhancement wreaking havoc during this week. I have tried to make some sense out of it in picture form below.

 

The set-up http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/1b42af50-ffc8-478e-998b-3bc4df7bbac5/2012-11-04_0907.png

 

The story 2012-11-04_0927 - slick60's library

 

Story re-told 2012-11-04_1003 - slick60's library

 

I hope I am able to use hindsight to to identify what is going on at the right side of the charts.

 

slick60

[bakrob99 11]

... I totally believe in the markets being moved and manipulated by these traders, consortiums, banks et al and it is not paranoia on my part....

slick60

 

Are you quite sure it is not paranoia? If your theory were true - then you would find nothing but major volume on one side so overwhelming the other side that the market would instantly move. And who would fill their orders? And the so called market consortium would have to exist and be trading in every related market simultaneously. That's just too incredible too accept.

 

I believe that there are large traders who are winning - and other large traders who are losing - Over time - most of the larger traders will win based on their edge - but they lose - sometimes - as often or more often than they win. I believe it is much harder to have a high win rate trading size than it is trading a 2 lot.

 

Beside - you don't need to resort to a "market manipulation" hyposthesis to understand the past several days trading.

 

Thursday saw short covering as the lows held and the news came out from Europe favourably and the larger positions had to be closed. This was evidenced by the "P" shape of the profile for Thursday.

 

Friday popped on the NFP but after it ran out of buyers the responsive selling came in targeting a gap fill, gained momentum to stop the overnight longs out who got squeezed and resulted in long liquidation with no one wanting to hold over a weekend in advance of the election. More of a "b" shape. There was not significantly higher volume early in the RH session on either day which suggested to me that the move would not continue.

 

As long at 1398.50 hold and we push back up - the ES 60 minute chart will be in a confirmed uptrend which could then lead to a change in the Daily from down back to up later in the week.

 

But seriously - do you think there are major players setting up longer term positoins in advance of Tuesday's results.

[slick60 10]

Are you quite sure it is not paranoia? If your theory were true - then you would find nothing but major volume on one side so overwhelming the other side that the market would instantly move. And who would fill their orders? And the so called market consortium would have to exist and be trading in every related market simultaneously. That's just too incredible too accept.

 

I believe that there are large traders who are winning - and other large traders who are losing - Over time - most of the larger traders will win based on their edge - but they lose - sometimes - as often or more often than they win. I believe it is much harder to have a high win rate trading size than it is trading a 2 lot.

 

Beside - you don't need to resort to a "market manipulation" hyposthesis to understand the past several days trading.

 

Thursday saw short covering as the lows held and the news came out from Europe favourably and the larger positions had to be closed. This was evidenced by the "P" shape of the profile for Thursday.

 

Friday popped on the NFP but after it ran out of buyers the responsive selling came in targeting a gap fill, gained momentum to stop the overnight longs out who got squeezed and resulted in long liquidation with no one wanting to hold over a weekend in advance of the election. More of a "b" shape. There was not significantly higher volume early in the RH session on either day which suggested to me that the move would not continue.

 

As long at 1398.50 hold and we push back up - the ES 60 minute chart will be in a confirmed uptrend which could then lead to a change in the Daily from down back to up later in the week.

 

But seriously - do you think there are major players setting up longer term positoins in advance of Tuesday's results.

 

Hey bakrob99.

I guess the short answer is YES!..You seem to have this down pretty good - lol. I am sure you sold the opening bell then on Friday RTH session and held for the day.

I personally feel you have to look also from the other side of the screen.

Take care and good trading to you.

 

slick60

[bakrob99 11]

I am sure you sold the opening bell then on Friday RTH session and held for the day

I'm not sure why you think my reply suggested anything about how I traded it. My setup was a short from 1429 to the gap fill. Pretty straightforward. Didn't sell the high. And you didn't have to either to take a profit from the market.

 

I personally feel you have to look also from the other side of the screen.

I agree. I look at what other traders are doing - but frankly I don't think there is a conspiracy out to get me - and it wouldn't help my trading if I did. I might start to think that it was rigged, and I wasn't responsible for my losses etc... .blah de blah. I am not going down that route. Any losses I take are my responsibility. As are any gains.

 

Take care and good trading to you.

Thank you. Same to you.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Anyone else ready to sell the pants off the market this week?

 

Personally, i'm looking for the market to push down to at least 1388 this week, possibly even down to 1380, though at that price i'd consider a counter trend trade long... and until the market retests the low of last week of 1393, I'd love to get short somewhere between 1418-1424.

 

So for monday, i'm looking for any excuse to get short until we hit 1393. I'll happily hold those shorts until we hit 1388. and if by some miracle we can get up to or above 1418 before we retest 1393, i'll go short even without an excuse.

 

anyone else care to speculate what this week may bring?

 

FTX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Welll, just got short at 1407...4 point stop... no set target right now...

[ForexTraderX 10]

closed half the short out for a 3 point profit... don't like the lack of follow through on this selloff since europe opened.

 

FTX

[TheNegotiator 13]

Big day today for USA. Greeks are striking and eurozone figures earlier weren't great. 1417.75 area looks to be key again today!

 

Here's a chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

So BO back in the WH for a 2nd term. Only time will tell if it's good or bad for the markets. Draghi has been saying German economy is starting to suffer. German ind production did not impress earlier. European Commission cut growth forecasts. Lots of earnings out and due out after close. Crude inventories & US consumer credit due later. EU's Rehn and German Chancellor Merkel talking later. Greek MP's voting on austerity later.

 

As for the market, it seems to be one way then the other right now. Just when you expect a push it reverses back hard. Overnight high at 1431.75 and low at 1410.00 (current) and where we're likely to open fairly close to, suggests that perhaps higher prices have been tentatively rejected for now and so a test of recent lower value could well be next (a.k.a 1406.50. Above is still the 1417.75 area should we decide to test this move lower for conviction. Any move much lower and we have 1400.00, 1397.50/96.50 and 1384.75 as bigger targets (with others along the way). Above 17.75 would be 20.75, 28.00 then the overnight high 31.75 with higher target of 43.75.

 

Here's the chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Also, overnight high at 1431.75 is a 1 tick fail of 11/1/12 overnight high 1431.50...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Overnight volume so far is pretty high at 560k - 192k, 215k, 366k, 289k, 238k last 5 overnight vols.

 

Should be busy. Pick your spots and good luck!

[TheNegotiator 13]

OD type open so far. Interesting the half-gap (session gap) is left at 1417.85 - right at that 17.75 area of interest...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just in case, here's a reminder posted earlier in thread:-

 

Evidence for a trend day

[TheNegotiator 13]

Definite drive down on open but met with strong buying. Sellers were probably watching mid/6.50/vwap area. Hold above now and we could sling shot higher... (could)

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

It's interesting to note that on this current leg lower the delta has not gone with price:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Not saying it won't eventually follow, but :-

[TheNegotiator 13]

Either bids are being pulled or selling is on the offer mostly.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So the question is what does this mean (or more accurately, what might it mean?)?

 

If OTF (other timeframe - i.e big longer timeframe players) were selling and persistent, there would be more consistent agreement with the volume delta. This DOES NOT mean that we can't go lower. It means that that possibly the selling is by shorter term players right now. The most important question is whether or not they will be joined by OTF or whether the lower prices will eventually be met with responsive buying.

[slick60 10]

So the question is what does this mean (or more accurately, what might it mean?)?

 

If OTF (other timeframe - i.e big longer timeframe players) were selling and persistent, there would be more consistent agreement with the volume delta. This DOES NOT mean that we can't go lower. It means that that possibly the selling is by shorter term players right now. The most important question is whether or not they will be joined by OTF or whether the lower prices will eventually be met with responsive buying.

 

Hi N

Since we are playing a zero sum game perhaps the OTF players are the ones who are accumulating the sells and building a nice long inventory for a sustained move north. Since the market has been jerked around on perception a lot in the recent past and that perception has been stretched it indicates to me a move north is not far off. With a little end of auction spike down we could get under way. I have not seen a 14 1/4 pt IB for some time. Will this set up our "b" pattern of the so called "long liquidation"?

 

slick60

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hi N

Since we are playing a zero sum game perhaps the OTF players are the ones who are accumulating the sells and building a nice long inventory for a sustained move north. Since the market has been jerked around on perception a lot in the recent past and that perception has been stretched it indicates to me a move north is not far off. With a little end of auction spike down we could get under way. I have not seen a 14 1/4 pt IB for some time. Will this set up our "b" pattern of the so called "long liquidation"?

 

slick60

 

I don't know. Today so far we are trending although there have been several places where I felt they were trying to stage a reversal. My feeling is that there is a 'forcing action' in the market and it's trying to make other players capitulate. That would be the spike you're looking for potentially but it's difficult to be certain either way. It will be interesting to watch for the spike (possibly just happened) then see what subsequent action is like. :missy:

[TheNegotiator 13]

Interestingly, the dollar index is teetering at a possible retracement support level.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just doing a chart there to show the (counter) rotations of 3 points or greater today and we broke the biggest made earlier in the session! Anyway, here's the chart:-

 

 

This is important considering we got to the extended target I mentioned earlier on the low side and moved pretty cleanly away. Not to say we couldn't test lower later on but we could stage a better attempt to retrace now. Just one possibility and ach. Remember that we are still effectively trending lower.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Looking at 95 to see if we can stop one-timeframing.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Looking at 95 to see if we can stop one-timeframing.

 

My bad. Just started new 30 bracket so have already stopped 1tf'ing. Still watching 95 as last significant swing high in this down trend.