Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[Colonel B 10]

Time to start crushing them The whys.... Volume came out on the wrong side in my zones. Zones are determined by the brackets on my MP chart at the top. Blue boxes are buys and reds are sells

[TheNegotiator 13]

Time to start crushing them The whys....

 

What? James Bond? Sucka? Lol.

 

Anyway, not surprising we got a reaction there at the low end of the balance from 1pm onwards yesterday RTH.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay, so far we have basically tested both sides of 'value' more or less. I don't normally look at value areas too much but when a profile looks like the one from the last 3 days, it's worthwhile doing so - especially when the value area extremes line up well with other levels.

[bakrob99 11]

... Blue boxes are buys and reds are sells

 

Sorry, but I don't see any blue boxes? I think I am missing something.

[TheNegotiator 13]

It is there - on the ES 4 tick rev chart, there are 8 bars, 5th has a blue box followed by 6th &7th which have red boxes.

[Colonel B 10]

yep 3 ES trades the blue one was half size the first red was a stop and the second red was a winner

 

I had a bias to the short side because of the notes and bonds in premarket

 

Main thing is VOLUME ON THE WRONG SIDE in or around a zone.

[slick60 10]

Hi N

I follow these markets using various approaches as I having posted on this thread in the past.

At present a wave pattern is telling me that we should see a retrace back to the 1390.00 area ( I felt that was large in relation to what we have been seeing recently). Also the wave pattern says we have the possibility of an irregular flat correction that we are in at present that fibs out in the area of 1472-73.00 If the high is in place at this time or very soon to come with a little pop my Delta cycle work says we are running out of time for this high to come in and to start the correction into mid October at least.

In an "UP" market this high can come in late however time is running out.

The wave pattern is really hard to put a clear handle on it and I am not certain as to how far we will go down. On my daily chart there is a 50% retrace at a 4th wave level which should be a normal pull back area. Lower will not surprise me.

 

daily chart 2012-09-19_2043 - slick60's library

The weekly chart below shows the delta cycles into the future

weekly 2012-09-19_2045 - slick60's library

 

Same reasoning as I used in April looking the opposite way of most everyone at that time. Couple posts there on pages 443 and 452.

 

Take care

 

slick60

 

UPDATE

Thought I would post another chart to update possible area of retrace. Today could be interesting with the NYSE down for two RTH sessions. Wave form will still allow for a sharp move down into the possible low if it is not in at this time. Very untimely storm when one is counting waves and delta times. Hell of it is I will not be here to see what goes on today as have a doctor's appointment.

Good luck traders and have a great one

 

2012-10-31_0717 - slick60's library

 

The importance of this low is that it will be the last one before this move from March 2009 low is over. And then cover your ass and look out below. End of Dec to early part of year we should be done. How far will we get above 1510.00 aeaa?

 

slick60

 

P.S.I know this is the Day Trading the emini thread BUT I find it nice to have some idea as to direction for the higher probability trades with trend.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Sandy put the spanner in the works but my feeling is actually maybe people are more looking for opportunity than fear actually growing. Not sure, just a feeling. The 3 overnight sessions have basically tested and pushed a little on both sides. It would seem a stronger responsive action came in at the lows so far. This isn't to say that if we do explore higher it couldn't just end up a short covering rally in an otherwise broader correction. It could and it could also be a rejection of lower value. We'll have to see. We could well also get RTH responsive selling with stocks trading for the first time in a few days, with traders covering their risk. If this does happen, there's a decent chance we'll move down quickly and at some point see responsive buying again (not necessarily this session). In all, watch the market and see what it looks like doing and does in respect to your plan.

 

Here's a chart:-

 

[vertigo333 10]

does anyone here look at cumulative delta?

this intraday drop (right now) to test swing Low of 02.50 (at 11:10am ET) has (what I guess) is a positive divergence, CD well above level seen on the first swing Low.

 

Does this mean anything to anybody (I have just started for the 3rd time in 4 years) to try to incorporate CD in my trading and I am only spouting crp I've seen talked about on the internet.

 

any comments (pro or con) on CD would be greatly appreciated.

[TheNegotiator 13]

does anyone here look at cumulative delta?

this intraday drop (right now) to test swing Low of 02.50 (at 11:10am ET) has (what I guess) is a positive divergence, CD well above level seen on the first swing Low.

 

Does this mean anything to anybody (I have just started for the 3rd time in 4 years) to try to incorporate CD in my trading and I am only spouting crp I've seen talked about on the internet.

 

any comments (pro or con) on CD would be greatly appreciated.

 

I find it can help me in seeing a change in order flow and momentum of order flow. So if I take a trade the I get a break in price structure and a thrust in cumulative delta, it is a positive sign that I'll be able to take at least something on the trade. The cumulative delta momentum in particular when it slows, is useful in highlighting a deteriorating level of interest and can foretell some kind of reversal. Someone once told me that people liked MarketDelta as with it they could tell whether a move was 'real' or not.

 

As for divergences, yes I do look at them especially when I already see we've overstretched and maybe hit good levels. I also like to see when price is trending (used loosely) one way and delta is going the other. This usually leads to a pop and I see the action as passive aggressive (or aggressive passive ) OTF action. Not that it happens too often though.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's a chart anyway:-

 

 

So we didn't initially get any massive responsive selling, but then that wasn't followed by any confident buying either hence the subsequent selling.

[TheNegotiator 13]

NFP's due in under 10 mins now exp 125k from 114k. ADP beat but historically it's not a good indicator of NFP.

 

Here's a quick chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

171k ! rev previous to 148k

[TheNegotiator 13]

Someone got a fantastic fill on the release there! Also worth noting that the SOC is the overnight VPOC so far at 23.50(this could change though).

 

[joshdance 10]

NFP's due in under 10 mins now exp 125k from 114k. ADP beat but historically it's not a good indicator of NFP.

 

Starting with yesterday's release, ADP is using a new data calculation method that is supposed to give a much closer reading to the official number.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yesterday felt like classic short covering. The market surged up but could not continue. The 5-day balance (10/23-10/31) was well developed and the chance of retesting its VPOC (1406.50) is quite high. Still, that NFP report may well have scuppered that idea for today at least!! :missy:

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Starting with yesterday's release, ADP is using a new data calculation method that is supposed to give a much closer reading to the official number.

 

So it's getting closer to complete bs then? Lol. Do you have a link for that info?

[joshdance 10]

So it's getting closer to complete bs then? Lol. Do you have a link for that info?

 

How to handle Thursday

 

On a market note, I am surprised you see yesterday as short covering. To me it was clear strength, breaking out of an 8-day balance. The heavy buying came in before, during, and after the market broke out. Sure, it stalled, but I think this is due to NFP more than anything. It did not even rotate below 18 yesterday.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Watching for yesterday's high @25.00 then close/on vpoc/nfp soc @23.50...

[TheNegotiator 13]

How to handle Thursday

 

On a market note, I am surprised you see yesterday as short covering. To me it was clear strength, breaking out of an 8-day balance. The heavy buying came in before, during, and after the market broke out. Sure, it stalled, but I think this is due to NFP more than anything. It did not even rotate below 18 yesterday.

 

8-day balance? I think if there was genuine strength, then there would have been follow through instead of just an IB move then balance. It couldn't even test the 28's. The 17.75's are probably ripe to be retested. Time will tell though. It's just one scenario right?

[TheNegotiator 13]

One thing I find useful to do and I don't know whether some or all or nobody else does, is I try to identify what I think the market (given context) wants to test. So in this case, I was looking at a gap close and SOC retest. We had a really strong print on the NFP pre-open. The open did not follow that up with a push higher suggesting that maybe we had moved up too quickly and there was then the chance of a test lower. The first test was the half gap (session not range) which then bounced to retest the session midpoint/vwap. At this stage, there was still plenty of downside to get to what I believed we wanted to check - the NFP scene of crime and yesterday's close. Anyway, that's an example of how I see it and I took the trade at 28.75 for 4.75. Not too shabby for me on an NFP day

[joshdance 10]

I should say 7-day balance -- US markets closed monday and tuesday, but that's when the low of the week and test of last week's low was put in, and it counts, just ask anyone who got filled there!

 

Remind me, "SOC" ?

 

True, it could not test 28, but it was not sold at 11s/12s as it had been a lot last week, nor at 15s, and finally 20s did not hold, and the market never even made it back to 18.

 

I guess only time will tell, but at the time it was clearly buy or sit. Today so far, the market seems to be searching for liquidity, but the fact that the VA is currently 21 to 26s, overlapping yesterday's, is not a bullish sign at all. Only shorts so far today, but I suspect we get some rotation here and will be surprised (though not shocked) if we go below 18.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I should say 7-day balance -- US markets closed monday and tuesday, but that's when the low of the week and test of last week's low was put in, and it counts, just ask anyone who got filled there!

 

ah, i use that term based on real rth sessions

 

Remind me, "SOC" ?

 

soc = scene of crime. NFP especially, but other releases and events that move the market often have where they originated from retested.

 

True, it could not test 28, but it was not sold at 11s/12s as it had been a lot last week, nor at 15s, and finally 20s did not hold, and the market never even made it back to 18.

 

I guess only time will tell, but at the time it was clearly buy or sit. Today so far, the market seems to be searching for liquidity, but the fact that the VA is currently 21 to 26s, overlapping yesterday's, is not a bullish sign at all. Only shorts so far today, but I suspect we get some rotation here and will be surprised (though not shocked) if we go below 18.

 

I think they will want to test the 17.75 area and given the lack of any buying so far, if there's not a sharp reaction there, they could try to run short-term stops. Yesterday is certainly thin below there.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think they will want to test the 17.75 area and given the lack of any buying so far, if there's not a sharp reaction there, they could try to run short-term stops. Yesterday is certainly thin below there.

 

of course that will all likely change if we get above and hold yesterday's high (and conveniently this is also currently the session midpoint)...

[joshdance 10]

Market content to balance here. I was a buyer at 20, as the market found support at yesterday's VAL.