Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[robster970 10]

They were just waiting for a gap fill ... and once the ES filled the NQ took off. I was walking the dog at the time trying to avoid taking a trade in advance of the FOMC ... But I could see a substantial rally out of this hole. ES 1416.75 would be reasonable target. You have to think that large money players would be staying out before the FOMC ... but on the other hand, if they think it's all old news, why not get in a better prices now?

 

It's turned because there are no more sellers, not because buyers have dried up. I think like you said, they come out to play on FOMC with a real test below 6.25 to see if it is solid.

 

Famous last words....

[Colonel B 10]

Hey I read the first page of this thread. Chances are that im not going to read 700 or however many pages there are already. Are you still posting stuff on the ES in the same fashion as the first page? BTW I saw some of the charts posted and want to post some of my own.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hey I read the first page of this thread. Chances are that im not going to read 700 or however many pages there are already. Are you still posting stuff on the ES in the same fashion as the first page? BTW I saw some of the charts posted and want to post some of my own.

 

Post away. The only thing I ask is that if you really must post a trade, you explain why you took it so that others might (or might not ) benefit.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Very balanced 2 days just gone and we could break either side. My view is that we could remain in the same balance if either 1417.75 or 1396.50 contain the range. I think both sides of the range could be tested again (not necessarily both today).

 

Here's a chart:-

 

[robster970 10]

You had to be quick to get in at the 16's today........

[bakrob99 11]

You had to be quick to get in at the 16's today........

 

It want necessary to get in at the 16s to make money. I shorted 13.75 then later 13.50 and both paid nicely

[ForexTraderX 10]

Got long the ES at 1402

[bakrob99 11]

They were just waiting for a gap fill ... and once the ES filled the NQ took off. I was walking the dog at the time trying to avoid taking a trade in advance of the FOMC ... But I could see a substantial rally out of this hole. ES 1416.75 would be reasonable target. You have to think that large money players would be staying out before the FOMC ... but on the other hand, if they think it's all old news, why not get in a better prices now?

 

1416.75 was a pretty obvious place for the market to test. It has been on my chart for a while now, as I said in this prior post.

[robster970 10]

1416.75 was a pretty obvious place for the market to test. It has been on my chart for a while now, as I said in this prior post.

 

It was obvious to the world and his wife given it was the low of the recent range, I agree.

 

What threw me was the Open-Drive off the level. For some reason I expected a bit more of a test.

[ForexTraderX 10]

closed ES at 1407 - 5 points profit

[ForexTraderX 10]

Long the NQ at 2650.50...stop below the low of teh day...target is open for now...but proably 1.2660+

[ForexTraderX 10]

Stop moved up to 2646 on my NQ long trade...

[ForexTraderX 10]

Stop moved up to 2652.5 - now locked in 2 points of profit.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Stopped out on my NQ long for an 8 tick profit.

 

Probably done for the day.

 

5 points profit in the ES, and 2 points in the NQ

 

 

FTX

[ForexTraderX 10]

Got long 1 more time in the NQ right now... at 2656.50.

 

10 point stop, 10 point target

[ForexTraderX 10]

Ehh... bad trade. closed it out for a 3 point loss in the NQ

[JohnE 10]

I like the suggestion of explaining the trades..no offense but I just don't think the web needs more people posting without giving the reasons for trades....so thanks to those who are taking the extra effort...great thread..been lurking here a long time !!

[bakrob99 11]

Got long 1 more time in the NQ right now... at 2656.50.

 

10 point stop, 10 point target

 

You should have still been in your first NQ trade. Common for me too to get out early and reenter only to give the short profit back with out any benefit for the effort.. when just staying in the First Attempt Would have produced CA decent profit. I hate doing That

 

And isn't it nice to have me around to remind you of that;)

[ForexTraderX 10]

I like the suggestion of explaining the trades..no offense but I just don't think the web needs more people posting without giving the reasons for trades....so thanks to those who are taking the extra effort...great thread..been lurking here a long time !!

 

Ya, I would normally do more explaining john, but I don't post in this thread more than a few days out of the month, and the main reason I posted anything was because I let the world know that I made money trading index futures today, and also to give an example to new visitors that it is in fact possible to make a trading decision (or 3) from your home computer, finish with 2 wins, 1 loss, and a profit of over $200 per contract after comissions.

 

I like posting more information, because teaching is fun for me, as is sharing, and discussing subjects I enjoy with others who enjoy them.... buuuut.... had I taken the time to write up an explanation, the timestamp would have been totally skewed, and therefore less "authentic".

 

I know, I sound pretty self centered and narcissistic eh! I'm not really, just honest, and I was feeling in a competitive mood and saw a chance to score a goal for team forextraderx.

 

but, if I have enough time between seeing the opportunity and actually needing to take it, I WILL write up a more detailed analysis of why I took that trade, and what I saw that I liked, etc.

 

To address the first ES trade though... I have been waiting for the 1400 level for a week now, because it is a major psych level, and it has been significant S/R in the past. Also, it was just a few ticks under the lows from yesterday, which tells me that liquidity will be found in the form of sell stops (anyone long from yesterday will most frequently put their stop at or just below the low of the day)... and when I saw price violate yesterdays low, but then rebound and start a very tight consolidation for more than 10 minutes, complete with above average volume appearing under bullish candles (green ones with long bodies) on a 1 min chart tells me that not only are the buy stops being absorbed by a market participant (or several informed participants...whatever) who has an even larger buy order at or very near that price... thus, in a sense, it showed me "big money" tipping it's hand as to what it's intentions were. So I bought.

 

Then, the move up to the target point was easy...essentially the move down from 1407ish to 1403ish and was made in a single burst of momentum. This requires agressive active sellers who are dumping using "market" orders, and a relatively fewer number of contracts available to fill those sell orders as limit orders. This creates a zone of low density order fill (I like to call it low density commitment), and thus when price starts to push back up through this zone, the relative lack of traders who became committed to a position at that range of prices between 1403ish and 1407ish would imply that a disproportionally small amount of "losing traders" would feel compelled to cover (because there just weren't many trades execucted at the 1403-1407 zone, compared to immediately above and below, therefore, there are just not many losers....and this matters, because it's the losing trader that needs to cover their position more than any other trader)

 

so, low liquidity zone = less trades happened there = less losing traders = less orders to work through as price moves back up from 1403-1407 = price hitting 1407ish is basically a done deal = my target for is 1407ish.

 

FTX

[ForexTraderX 10]

You should have still been in your first NQ trade. Common for me too to get out early and reenter only to give the short profit back with out any benefit for the effort.. when just staying in the First Attempt Would have produced CA decent profit. I hate doing That

 

And isn't it nice to have me around to remind you of that;)

 

ehh... no, I'm actually completely satisfied with my stop management as well as the entry and exit I took in the first NQ trade.

 

Really, it was second trade that just never should have happened. The first attempt DID produce a profit for me, albeit small, it was controlled, and minimzed risk the entire time.

 

The 2nd trade was just because I got a wild hair up my ass to click a button and see my bank account fluuctuate by a few dollars, with the hope of it ending in the positive more than the negative.

 

Yeaaaa.... 2nd trade = total impulse mistake.

 

 

FTX

[TheNegotiator 13]

It was obvious to the world and his wife given it was the low of the recent range, I agree.

 

What threw me was the Open-Drive off the level. For some reason I expected a bit more of a test.

 

OD's can turn into OA's or ORR's if they fail to follow through. At that point you have to decide whether you are willing to stand or wait for a pullback if it does reverse. I think you could have probably done either in this case given the context although if you're unsure then there's nothing wrong with holding fire. The second retest of 1414.00 for me would have been a pretty reasonable location and clearly with what did happen, timing.

Edited October 26, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Interesting session yesterday and overnight. Yesterday tested and extended both sides of the balance but couldn't get to the 1396.50's and the high was at 16.75 10/22 rth low, on the low end of the area up to the balance low vol 17.75. Possibly AMZN/AAPL tipped the balance after close as seen in NQ. The 96.50's were then tested and the momentum took it through a couple of points to 94.50 before clearly holding well on the retest. Q3 GDP came in higher and now, we've swung back up to test the aapl scene of crime (SOC) and all of this before the rth open. Don't forget we have michigan @09:55. It looks as though we'll open somewhere in the middle of the balance now. I'm taking that o/n test of 96.50 as done for now and that means a test higher potentially on the cards. Possibly to 11.25 then 17.75. Does that mean we're going to be out of balance and break out? I don't know. I think there will be some decent movement though so pick your spots and work with the market context. Good luck!!

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I like the suggestion of explaining the trades..no offense but I just don't think the web needs more people posting without giving the reasons for trades....so thanks to those who are taking the extra effort...great thread..been lurking here a long time !!

 

Glad you like the thread John! You should get yourself involved and post a few ideas

[TheNegotiator 13]

Forgot to mention that the APPL SOC was also the 3-day balance VPOC!

[TheNegotiator 13]

This is the reason why the 11.25 area is important:-

 

 

(and the fact that it's a low volume area from yesterday)

 

((remember michigan's at 09:55))