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Well...it's really seeming to find support here... but, it's friday. i don't like friday. we're not low enough for me to be really interested... think i'll be happier starting my weekend now.

 

GOod luck all... if u all know what it's gonna do, that's better than I can today.

 

FTX

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Well...we just hit 1436.75, and we're probably near the low of the day. i'd be surprised if we touched below 1434. tick seems to have bottomed out with a pretty extreme reading. I'm not gonna say we will move up a whole lot...but 1436.75-1434ish is probably a short term low, or possibly low for the day.

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This GOOGLE earnings miss points to a MUCH lower NQ down to 2664. Not necessarily today. I don't mean its going straight there ... but there NQ is showing signs of needing to go lower to find more buying interest.

 

Looks like the 2664 target might be hit faster than expected. Just 20 pts away and down 70 pts from when I projected it. Maybe staying in overnight might have made sense after being up so much.

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Well so far, it's certainly has been a one-move day! :rofl:

 

Ya know... when the first support level started to look like it would fail, I took a look at other correlated markets, NQ, YM, and currencies as well... as well as the TICK and TRIN...and it seemed weakness was in the cards...

 

however... I think we'ev seen the low TICK for the day. And that generally means we've seen the bottom. The market is oversold in the short term, and just touched off of some significant support around 1434ish...

 

I think this is probably the bottom for today. I think we'll see more upward action in the coming days... however, we could bounce around a bit, but for today...i think we're good actually.

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well...that's what I get for coming back to the office instead of staying in the TV room!

 

i'm gonna give this about 4ish points total for a stop... but then, i'm just gonna have to take it. down about 3 points now... probably gonna lose. Always sucks to end with a loser for the week... at least I did well in other areas.

 

Anyway... here's to hoping, lol

 

FTX

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If I can get a pip or 2 here... say, 1435.50-1436ish.. I'll take it. For now, stop is 2 pips elow the low of the day. May bring that up more if the market moves more my way...but probably will just leave it unless it or target is hit.

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You see this happening when a day like this occurs. People want to fade it. But the very best way to prevent getting stuffed in an ES trend day is by evidence based analysis. I'm not trying to make out that I never get it wrong or anything like that. Just that it's important to monitor certain things because fading a market like this before it's put in an extreme is gonna wipe out a good few days and just occasionally, it could wipe out much much more.

 

So what's the evidence?

 

1 - The Open

 

An Open-Drive or Open-Test-Drive can really give you an early hint as to what might be on the cards. I did point this out earlier. Given the location and the macro context, this open was a big hint.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32194&stc=1&d=1350664663

 

2 - The Cumulative Delta

 

When OTF aka "the big boys" take the market in one direction, the delta (at bid - at ask volume per bar) has to move too. Today it did and even after the initial move it didn't really recover.

 

3 - IB Extension

 

If OTF are there and haven't done 30 points pre-IB close, the likelihood is that you'll see a substantial IB extension of more than at least 38.2%. This is representing the fact that these guys come into the market early and there is a persistence of activity.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32195&stc=1&d=1350664964

 

4 - One-Timeframing

 

An MP term. Means simply on a 30-min chart the high in a downtrend or the low in an uptrend is no more than 1 tick beyond the last 30-min bar. Simple but works. Sometimes the easiest and clearest technicals work when markets are really moving.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32196&stc=1&d=1350665328

 

5 - Shallow Counter Rotations

 

If the market is potentially going to turn, there are a few things I don't want to see. One is shallow counter-rotations. Today the largest has so far been 3 points. That isn't even worth getting out of bed for a bull.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32197&stc=1&d=1350665679

 

6 - Lack of Counter Delta Conviction

 

In a counter-rotation I would want to see a strong delta push against the trend. This means there are some big players aggressively competing for what they see as unfair prices. i.e. the move has gone too far at least temporarily.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32198&stc=1&d=1350666089

 

7 - Any Rejection

 

As with the counter-rotations and the delta, until I see in the price action a really decent rejection at a good price, do I really believe it's worth taking a punt that the OTF have gone home?

 

8 - Range Estimation

 

Looking at the current volume, we're currently running at getting on for 150% of recent volume by this time of day. Even without this, clearly it's a big day. Big days recently have been in the region of 25+ points. So to me that means at least 20 points. So far we're at 19.50 but my point is that I have been looking at targets upwards of 20 points. That's why I posted the remark about possible levels below.

 

Anyway, having some sort of framework so you don't get shafted on this kind of day is imperative to imho. Otherwise it can set you back days or weeks in capital and emotions.

 

DON'T FADE AN ES TREND, PLEASE!

 

(and if you did, please just see this post as a way to help avoid it in the future and nothing more :))

5aa71161ec5d2_2012-10-19OpenDrive.thumb.jpg.badd46a929b695553ffd258c3a2d14da.jpg

5aa711620111f_2012-10-19IBExtension.thumb.jpg.ac6fa8497c3d9eb32bbbfdb53deb6191.jpg

5aa7116207b1d_2012-10-19One-Timeframing.thumb.jpg.66ed20361f492e2a3d01afa9ff67c790.jpg

5aa711620fc72_2012-10-19Counterrotations.thumb.jpg.4df33cb0185edfa5e5e95de4efcad08a.jpg

5aa7116218461_2012-10-19Cumulativedelta.thumb.jpg.e937beed1597102fa99ba9635c378e75.jpg

Edited by TheNegotiator

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Nice summary of points. Part of the problem recently I think is that we have been living in such low volatility and range bounce days that trend trending has slipped to the back of the trader's mindset. Time to dust it off and stick with the shorts until they fail.

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Anyway, I hope it helps someone. It does seem to be a perpetual problem we come across though, which is why I thought I'd post a summary.

 

I would point out that what is basically a trend day can end up turning into a normal variation if it gets so far and opposite activity steps in closing the market far closer to the centre of the range. Closing towards the extreme (not necessarily at) helps to define it as a trend day.

 

Also worth pointing out is that the market behaves as a trend day until the point when it stops trending. This is a really big issue for guys who get run over by the trend in the first place. They're too slow to identify the trend and too slow to identify it's stopped.

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Thanks for the explanations and the charts.

 

The biggest problem I have with a day like this is, even though intraday trend and something like the $TICK remained thoroughly negative after the first hour of trading, I never seem to be able to take a second or a third or a fourth short (and I closed my first short with only a 3.5 point profit). My only consolation (and something I used to do with haBITUAL REGULARITY), I did not try any longs.

 

What was there that could have pointed to a BIG, persistent trend style slide?

 

and how far?

 

I don't know, suggest something I might time to research it this weekend.

 

I keep a measure that calcs 5 day average range and then also calcs a .618 expansion of that range (doesn't get there very often but when it does it is often a barrier to additional expansion (I don't know why).

 

That .618 expansion of the ave 5 day range calculated to 19.50 points. Take today's H minus 19.50 = 1430.75. So far, that's been the LOD to the tick. (markets are manipulated? Option Call writers certainly relished today's decline)

Big deal. WHat does it mean going forward?

 

I've gone back to look at the last time there was an RTH range expansion to the downside equal to or greater than the .618 expansion ... last occurred Sept 25, 2012.

 

Sept 25 ( a Tuesday) not only hit the .618 expansion level, it went down further by the end of the day.

next day Wed Sep 26) saw lethargic lift and then a retest of the sept25 LOD (came within 2.5 points of the Sep 25 Low) before Thursday's (Sep 27) REBOUND.

 

What was there that could have suggested an extended move lower today?

 

 

 

 

Anyone care to share anything that might have suggested an extended move down today?

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Anyway, I hope it helps someone. It does seem to be a perpetual problem we come across though, which is why I thought I'd post a summary.

 

I would point out that what is basically a trend day can end up turning into a normal variation if it gets so far and opposite activity steps in closing the market far closer to the centre of the range. Closing towards the extreme (not necessarily at) helps to define it as a trend day.

 

Also worth pointing out is that the market behaves as a trend day until the point when it stops trending. This is a really big issue for guys who get run over by the trend in the first place. They're too slow to identify the trend and too slow to identify it's stopped.

 

Yea... all good points. I just stopped out for 4.5 pt loss.. and that is it for today., considering i'm just closing the charts up now.

 

The weakness at this point has me both surprised, and a bit concerned about the longer term implications. Monthly chart of the ES is looking topped out... and though I am (and have been) quite bullish over all on the EUR/USD... it seems many "risk" markets are toppping out... longer term charts for many of them look bearish at this point...

 

So, I'm not quite sure what to expect myself here in the stock market.

 

I primarily trade currencies and crude... so I have a much better idea for them, but even now... the euro is at a bifurcation of sorts, and if it breaks up this is encouraging for the ES...if not, well, they could both get hurt.

 

Last but not least, the ES hasn't moved or consolidated in such a way that would clearly indicate it was ready for "the drop" should that be setting up at all... so that has me wondering just how likely it is without at least 1 more push to the upside... but, of course it could go either way.

 

I guess one thing is clear. I'm really not sure 1 way or the other about the ES.

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Vertigo,

 

We don't all have to be great at all market types. I think not getting flattened by this sort of day is almost enough in itself. Just because the market moves like this doesn't mean it's a great opportunity for everyone and in fact it clearly spells danger to many. The indicator fo such a move was probably Google and then what the market did. I didn't think it was necessarily going to do this but I had it as an option.

 

FTX,

 

I don't know yet what to expect. In the scheme of things this could just be a minor blip, a long liquidation day down to the lower part of the distribution. Given the election and earnings and Europe and the fact that we're pretty high already and that Google is a behemoth of a company I don't think that it's surprising that some positions are being squared up. If next week we power through the balance lows and drop below 1400 for a protracted period and can't retake it, that could spell something different. But I'm not too sure how far we might go anyway. In fairness even something below 1400 might just be a pretty temporary correction. Remember that we're backstopped by the Fed right now too. Anyway, one last point is that the same guys who get caught on a day like this also get caught on the rebound. I am NOT saying it WILL rebound, but you should have a plan for if it does and know what you're looking for before you trade.

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Looks like the 2664 target might be hit faster than expected. Just 20 pts away and down 70 pts from when I projected it. Maybe staying in overnight might have made sense after being up so much.

 

 

 

Okay just a little pat on the back here ... Low of the Day in NQ 2664.00

 

Wow !

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Very nice! Did you hold any to 64's?

 

No. That certainly is a problem I have relating my trading intraday trading targets to line up or use my projections of a possible path of price. In fact while I was mostly short during the "fall" it didn't stop me from taking some long scalps.

 

And to really take advantage of it I think you'd have had to hold overnight which I don't do on stock index futures. I think it also has to do with certainty - it's one thing to have a reasonable idea of what might unfold - and another to put your money on the line and watch it occur. I think we can all relate to that.

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From "bigger picture thread" :-

 

Looking at the chart, although we sold off on friday, we did stay within the balance (low on 9/10 @ 1418.75). I've expanded it to illustrate the void down to around 1409.00 (low of 1403.75) from 9/6. The singles start below the 18.75. Although there are a couple of overlapping points, mostly the zone is thin. Above, I'd want to see a retest of 28.00, 31.25 or 33.75 hold (and reject) if I were holding a short imho.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32267&stc=1&d=1350911567

 

I think that although we sold off pretty hard on friday it still could just be a case of long liquidation. How much remains to be seen though. But the interesting point is that we finished right towards the low of the balance and that actually there was no rejection as such so we don't yet know if the low is in for the minute. The schedule for today is sparse and often trading after a big day leads to muted ranges. However, if the market is still weak people might not care. CAT reported and beat, YHOO is after the close.

 

The overnight profile doesn't show a great deal of consensus on value although test below low of fri is a clear area of low vol and the high is low vol from friday and the high of the last attempt higher before selling off into close.

 

An ETH chart reveals that there's possibly a case for support down to 15.50 area but that remains to be seen. Would like to see what happens on first test up and first test down.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32268&stc=1&d=1350912470

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32269&stc=1&d=1350912472

2012-10-22_2.thumb.jpg.caf075655a8269db955264383f3aec48.jpg

2012-10-22_3.thumb.jpg.e1d33772d9cb488b6e97ac5131d27122.jpg

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    • A custom Semi-Log Scale Oscillator indicator is now available for MT5 on Metaquotes website and directly in the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/114705 This indicator is an anchored semi-logarithmic scale oscillator. A logarithmic scale is widely used by professional data scientists to more accurately map information collected throughout a timeframe, in the same way that MT5 maps out price data. In fact, the underlying logic of this indicator was freely obtained from an overseas biotech scientist. A log-log chart displays logarithmic values on both the x (horizontal) and y (vertical) axes, which generally produces a straight line that points up, down, or remains flat. A straight line is not very useful for trading markets because such a straight line is so smoothed that actual price values that appear over time are very far away from the line study. In contrast, a semi-log chart is only logged on one axis--generally, the y axis. Such a semi-log chart is well suited for trading markets because the time (x) axis is preserved in its original form while at the same time, providing a graduated y scale where the distance between price increments progressively increases as price rises higher (and decreases as price falls lower). This allows us to establish a zero level for a low price, clearly view trends on straighter angles, and clearly observe amplified price spikes at high prices. Accordingly, this indicator employs a semi-log scale on the y axis only. This indicator is anchored because it allows you to specify a start time for calculation of price bars. The settings are as follows: Year.Month.Day Hour:Minute - defaults to 1970.01.01 00:01 - if left on default setting, the indicator automatically detects the earliest price bar in chart history--even where the year 1970 is not in history. Notes appear in the indicator settings window. Size of first pip step to log - defaults to 135 - this default is suitable for higher timeframes such a MN1 (monthly), while 5 is suitable for lower timeframes such as M1 (minute). Ultimately, optimal settings will depend on the timeframe that you attach the indicator to, the level of price volatility within that timeframe, and start time that you choose. Remember... The semi-log formula calculates from low to high, so your start time must always be a major swing low. Again, notes appear in the indicator settings window. The standard (built-in) MT5 indicators that can be applied to the "Previous indicator's data" can be applied to this indicator. Indicator lines (indicator buffers) can be called with iCustom in Expert Advisors created by Expert Advisor builder software or custom coded Expert Advisors. The log scale Open, High, Low, and Close prices are buffers: No empty values; and No repainting.
    • A custom Gann Candles indicator is now available for MT5 on the Metaquotes website and directly in the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/126398 This Gann Candles indicator incorporates a series of W.D. Gann's strategies into a single trading indicator. Gann was a legendary trader who lived from 1878 to 1955. He started out as a cotton farmer and started trading at age 24 in 1902. His strategies included geometry, astronomy, astrology, times cycles, and ancient math. Although Gann wrote several books, none of them contain all of his strategies so it takes years of studying to learn them. He was also a devout scholar of the Bible and the ancient Greek and Egyptian cultures, and he was a 33rd degree Freemason of the Scottish Rite. In an effort to simplify what I believe are the best of Gann's strategies, I reduced them into one indicator that simply colors your preexisting price bars when those strategies are in-sync versus out-of-sync. This greatly reduces potential chart clutter. Also, I reduced the number of input settings down to only two: FastFilter, and SlowFilter Both FastFilter and SlowFilter must be set to 5 or more, as noted in the Inputs tab upon attaching the indicator to your chart. Gann Candles works on regular time-based charts (M5, M15, M20, etc.) and custom charts (Renko, range bars, etc.). The indicator does not repaint. When using the default settings, blue candles form bullish price patterns, gray candles form flat (sideways) price patterns, and white candles form bearish price patterns. The simplest way to trade Gann Candles is to buy at the close of a blue candle and exit at the close of a gray candle, and then sell at the close of a white candle and exit at the close of a gray candle.
    • A custom Anchored VWAP with Standard Deviation Bands indicator for MT5 is now available on the Metaquotes website and directly through the MT5 platform. https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/99389 The volume weighted average price indicator is a line study indicator that shows in the main chart window of MT5. The indicator monitors the typical price and then trading volume used to automatically push the indicator line toward heavily traded prices. These prices are where the most contracts (or lots) have been traded. Then those weighted prices are averaged over a look back period, and the indicator shows the line study at those pushed prices. The indicator in this post allows the trader to set the daily start time of that look back period. This indicator automatically shows 5 daily look back periods: the currently forming period, and the 4 previous days based on that same start time. For this reason, this indicator is intended for intraday trading only. The indicator automatically shows vertical daily start time separator lines for those days as well. Both typical prices and volumes are accumulated throughout the day, and processed throughout the day. Important update: v102 of this indicator allows you to anchor the start of the VWAP and bands to the most recent major high or low, even when that high or low appears in your chart several days ago. This is how institutional traders and liquidity providers often trade markets with the VWAP. This indicator also shows 6 standard deviation bands, similarly to the way that a Bollinger Bands indicator shows such bands. The trader is able to set 3 individual standard deviation multiplier values above the volume weighted average price line study, and 3 individual standard deviation multiplier values below the volume weighted average price line study. Higher multiplier values will generate rapidly expanding standard deviation bands because again, the indicator is cumulative. The following indicator parameters can be changed by the trader in the indicator Inputs tab: Volume Type [defaults to: Real volume] - Set to Tick volume for over-the-counter markets such as most forex markets. Real volume is an additional setting for centralized markets such as the United States Chicago Mercantile Exchange. VWAP Start Hour [defaults to: 07] - Set according to broker's or broker-dealer's MT5 server time in 24 hour format. For example, in the New York, United States time zone, 07 is approximately the London, United Kingdom business open hour. VWAP Start Minute [defaults to: 00] - Set according to broker's or broker-dealer's MT5 server time in 24 hour format. For example, 00 is on the hour with no delay of minutes within that hour. StdDev Multiplier 1 [defaults to: 1.618] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its nearest upper and lower bands. For example, 1.618 is a basic Fibonacci ratio. Some traders prefer 1.000 or 1.250 here. StdDev Multiplier 2 [defaults to: 3.236] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its middle upper and lower bands. For example, 3.236 is 1.618 (above) + 1.618. Some traders prefer 2.000 or 1.500 here. StdDev Multiplier 3 [defaults to: 4.854] - Set desired standard deviation distance between the volume weighted average price line study and its furthest upper and lower bands. For example, 4.854 is 1.618 (above) + 3.236 (above). Some traders prefer 3.000 or 2.000 here. VWAP Color [defaults to: Aqua] - Set desired VWAP line study color. This color automatically sets the color of the start time separators as well. SD1 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of nearest upper and lower standard deviation lines. SD2 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of middle upper and lower standard deviation lines. SD3 Color [defaults to: White] - Set desired color of furthest upper and lower standard deviation lines. Just to clarify, popular standard deviation bands settings are: 1.618, 3.236, and 4.854; or 1.000, 2.000, and 3.000; or 1.250, 1.500, and 2.000. Examples of usage *: In a ranging (sideways) market, enter a trade at the extremes of the standard deviation bands (SD3) and exit when price returns to the VWAP line study. Trade between SD1Pos and SD1 Neg, alternately buying and selling from one standard deviation line to the other. In a trending (rising or falling) market, enter a buy when a price bar opens above the VWAP line study, and exit at the nearest standard deviation band above (SD1Pos). Optionally, repeat the same trade but substitute SD1Pos for the VWAP, and SD2Pos for SD1. Reverse for sell; or Trade all lines (VWAP, SD1Pos, SD2Pos, and SD3Pos) in the same way. Again, reverse for sell. Indicator lines (indicator buffers) can be called with iCustom in Expert Advisors created by Expert Advisor builder software or custom coded Expert Advisors: No empty values; and No repainting.
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