Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[Predictor 11]

Short market here.... bias is short

[Predictor 11]

Nice work.... if you can get it. DFD

 

Slick? Big/long term/institutional sellers above 50... when I enter a trade.. I always want to know where it might fail. Buying too close to where long term traders stake short positions carries higher risk.

[slick60 10]

Nice work.... if you can get it. DFD

 

Slick? Big/long term/institutional sellers above 50... when I enter a trade.. I always want to know where it might fail. Buying too close to where long term traders stake short positions carries higher risk.

 

Predictor

Then market opens at 1447.75 and you are worried you may not get above 50. So you are going to try and get perhaps 2 points and bail?

Market goes down 4 1/4 points and did you ride it south. Perhaps those sellers had already made their move?

So buying at 1447.75 would be a higher risk trade? If so then why did you take it? That is what I am not understanding.

Thanks

 

slick

[Predictor 11]

Slick... good point. I was a split decision from reversing and going short. There are many factor I weigh on any trade... if I had came in a few moments later then I might have went short with a stop above 50. Reversing and shorting wouldn't have been a bad decision, even.

 

With this trade... I seen some evidence it could work and also I knew that a report was coming out at 10:00. Given the overall market conditions, I knew the shorts would be jittery and a retest was still likely...

 

I think the report played a factor in my mind because I knew if the market turned on the report that we could see a good move but if it went against me, I'd just take my stop loss.

 

Predictor

Then market opens at 1447.75 and you are worried you may not get above 50. So you are going to try and get perhaps 2 points and bail?

Market goes down 4 1/4 points and did you ride it south. Perhaps those sellers had already made their move?

So buying at 1447.75 would be a higher risk trade? If so then why did you take it? That is what I am not understanding.

Thanks

 

slick

Edited September 20, 2012 by Predictor

[steve46 12]

Just a quick note....and hopefully it won't be interpreted badly

 

"Institutional" participants have not been sellers up high....at least not recently....in fact they are more likely to add to existing positions and/or to move price even higher...as I recall Dalton covers this in some of his books on Market Profile...speculators and commercials (and the few retail traders left) are likely to have a different view and may indeed be sellers at what they perceive to be a market top...

 

Also it seems to me that in this market most of the big players prefer to stand off and wait for opportunity before acting...there isn't a way to "see" them until they decide to buy or sell. most of what we "see" is automated programs ghosting orders....placing and pulling them to create the illusion of liquidity at various levels...

 

Finally one should understand that we are late in the year and institutional particpants only get paid if they hit their profit targets...There certainly could be a news driven pullback however most of the institutions willl try to mark it up whenever possible....from here to the holidays...

[Predictor 11]

Okay.. I'm DFD but I predict we close at 47.25 4 PM

 

Any other takers! This is just a game, of course.

[slick60 10]

Just a quick note....and hopefully it won't be interpreted badly

 

"Institutional" participants have not been sellers up high....at least not recently....in fact they are more likely to add to existing positions and/or to move price even higher...as I recall Dalton covers this in some of his books on Market Profile...speculators and commercials (and the few retail traders left) are likely to have a different view and may indeed be sellers at what they perceive to be a market top...

 

Also it seems to me that in this market most of the big players prefer to stand off and wait for opportunity before acting...there isn't a way to "see" them until they decide to buy or sell. most of what we "see" is automated programs ghosting orders....placing and pulling them to create the illusion of liquidity at various levels...

 

Finally one should understand that we are late in the year and institutional particpants only get paid if they hit their profit targets...There certainly could be a news driven pullback however most of the institutions willl try to mark it up whenever possible....from here to the holidays...

 

 

Well said Steve - I think. You and I are in sync and yes Big Money comes in with the "Go With" trade that Dalton preaches I feel. And then the day-trader market maker jumps on board and throws on the fuel. And yes - Dec to early next year if it lasts that long will be the start of the day of reckoning.

 

slick60

[Predictor 11]

Steve... it takes many opinions to make a market. I don't know what you see but its for sure not what I see. lol... I never seen ghost orders, that's for sure.

[TheNegotiator 13]

The order book is smoke and mirrors these days. There was once a time you could "lean" on the book, but even in products like the euribor, that stopped a while ago. If you look at what trades, where and how, you can get a pretty good idea of what the "otf" are up to. If there's not a lot going on, maybe otf are still present to some extent, maybe they're not. But it doesn't matter that much.

 

As far as what we're going to do for the next few months goes, well there is another thread for that. However, I would like to point out that the Fed have just committed to another round of dollar dilution. Perhaps we can see a short-term top at the moment, perhaps it's just that the big guns haven't acted yet. I mean, you look at where we were before FOMC and have to question the logic in blindly buying right now. There are still uncertainties from europe etc. so why not wait to see what it's got first and look for that pullback before buying? Either way, you have to ask yourself the question. For the moment, is it wise to be fading both the Fed and the ECB? my guess is no. But really I don't care too much for the purposes of day trading.

[Predictor 11]

Good short here off the 55

[Predictor 11]

Oh mi oh my.... doubly nice... I'm out for late day... not pushing it

[BlueHorseshoe 10]

speculators and commercials (and the few retail traders left) are likely to have a different view and may indeed be sellers at what they perceive to be a market top...

QUOTE]

 

Hi Steve,

 

Please could yu explain who the 'commercials' are and what they do in the context of the ES?

 

I would associate this term more with producers and end users hedging in deliverable commodities like grain or oil. In fact, I would have thought that institutional activity was the closest parallel one would get to commercial activity in an equity index future.

 

Cheers,

 

BlueHorseshoe

[steve46 12]

For the index futures, "Commercial" participants have access to the floor and/or work for smaller firms. In contrast, "Institutions" are primarily (what most folks would think of as) banks. Some like my old friends at Goldman, are no longer technically called banks, but they act the same.....and what they try to accomplish is the same (to make a profit) however they go about it in different ways...and they are capitalized much differently...

 

Unfortunately I have some time constraints that prevent me from going into this in detail, and it would be interesting because since the mortgage crash, things have changed a great deal...(Goldy is technically no longer a bank for example, thats a big change)...but this should provide a little bit of visibility as to what the primary difference is between the two groups.

 

.

Edited September 20, 2012 by steve46

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay today is trip-witching (or quad if u like) day so we'll have to see what happens. Yesterday rejected a test lower into the singles although possibly would have liked to see it try a few more ticks. Never mind. The key is it did what it did and not to get too hung up on the price it did it at. Back in the body of the short-term consolidation now and would think a test higher could be on. But who really knows, ach.

 

I would also like to thank everyone on the thread who contributes their knowledge and of course those who ask questions and are inquisitive! I would just like to remind people though that it's important to explain your actions rather than just post "got long at x" or "made a packet on that one" or whatever else. The point of the thread is to help others who read the thread by what is written and explained on the thread.

 

Good luck today and here's a chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Looks like they are trying to close the gap (responsive) and below 56.75 (naked vpoc/balance vpoc/lt high vol) they probably will.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Watching cumulative delta for a third push here. Wouldn't be keen on chances lower if we were to push back above the vpoc (and really above 60.50).

[robster970 10]

So context for session for me is:

 

- Opened out of range to upside

- Responsive selling pushing price to 58 area for first 20mins of session

- Seemed like sellers were running out of steam by 14:45GMT

 

Took a long at 14:52GMT and got filled at 58.75. Moved up 4 ticks but seemed to stall indicating that buyers were weak. Covered with 2 ticks before commissions at 14:56GMT.

 

Can't see much else for me now unless 58 breaks and it travels south.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So context for session for me is:

 

- Opened out of range to upside

- Responsive selling pushing price to 58 area for first 20mins of session

- Seemed like sellers were running out of steam by 14:45GMT

 

Took a long at 14:52GMT and got filled at 58.75. Moved up 4 ticks but seemed to stall indicating that buyers were weak. Covered with 2 ticks before commissions at 14:56GMT.

 

Can't see much else for me now unless 58 breaks and it travels south.

 

We've not exactly seen fireworks so far today and given how fridays seem to trade these days I'm not entirely surprised. However, it is trip-witching and the move higher overnight gives us more price potential so to speak. So we could still see some decent moves but not sure whether they'll be clean or not. As I'm typing this we have finally got to that 56.75!!

[robster970 10]

We've not exactly seen fireworks so far today and given how fridays seem to trade these days I'm not entirely surprised. However, it is trip-witching and the move higher overnight gives us more price potential so to speak. So we could still see some decent moves but not sure whether they'll be clean or not. As I'm typing this we have finally got to that 56.75!!

 

Was expecting a little more travel than just hitting yesterday's VPOC, so think that's me done for this week now.

 

Have a good weekend folks.

[goodoboy 10]

Oh boy

 

Today sucks for me, my first day back to trading ES and take two losses in a roll for -2pts each. Grrrr.

[goodoboy 10]

Oh boy

 

Today sucks for me, my first day back to trading ES and take two losses in a roll for -2pts each. Grrrr.

 

The day ended off pretty good after all. I will start posting real time trades as I use to. I think i have a plan in place. Lets see how it goes as i now i test it with some stats.

 

The entry occurred from support of 1448. Price open and closed below this line. I waited for a retest of 1448 and it did and eventually price got above this line and I waited for retest to enter long. Entry was taken at 1448.50 after retest and held. Exit at 53.50. 2pts stop loss

 

Repeated the same thing after market close at 1452.50, exit at 1455.50

[goodoboy 10]

The day ended off pretty good after all. I will start posting real time trades as I use to. I think i have a plan in place. Lets see how it goes as i now i test it with some stats.

 

The entry occurred from support of 1448. Price open and closed below this line. I waited for a retest of 1448 and it did and eventually price got above this line and I waited for retest to enter long. Entry was taken at 1448.50 after retest and held. Exit at 53.50. 2pts stop loss

 

Repeated the same thing after market close at 1452.50, exit at 1455.50

 

green-entry

blue-stop loss

yellow-exit

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thank you goodoboy. Just remember to do your best to post your reasons for taking trades. Afterwards is okay too if you don't have time to post them whilst you have a trade on.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So I'm looking at the market thinking that the longer we go on without finding some new buyers, the more the singles/low volume tail from fed day looks like it could be tested further. Not to say it will be just that it's there. Overall my view is still to test that overhead high vol at 1479.00. 1464.25 could be a hurdle though if you take it as an extreme of a development (as drawn in cyan). Having said that, it was already broken last Friday and sellers stepped in to reverse us back down. The current action is helping to better define the long-term profile between ~44-64. Along with housing data today we have Consumer confidence at 10am which has the potential to move the markets. Spanish bond auction results weren't fantastic although if the market expects them to ask for a BO then it could ignore this entirely. In fact it could be that bad news is good news. There was also talk of legality of ecb bond buying earlier I believe. Anyway, here's a chart:-

 

Edited September 25, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Not much sign of any otf at the minute and given 10am figure release and draghi talking and where we are in the balance, that's not too surprising.