Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[Predictor 11]

DOW is rising in a nice tight rising channel...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Are there any generalities anyone can make regarding a particularly small IB?

 

or, for that matter, anything expected once there is a large range IB?

 

The point about the IB is that a good amount of business is done in the first hour by big players (OTF). A small IB means probably that there's not too much OTF interest (aka market movers) and therefore there might not be a huge range for the rest of the session. On the other hand, it could also mean that they're waiting for some specific information due to come out imminently before acting.

 

A large IB could be that the market has reacted to something early on or premarket (such as eco numbers etc.). There is a big move but then little further interest in pushing any more. It could be that you get a "normal" day whereby neither the IB high or low is taken out and the implication of this is that possibly OTF cancel each other out. So once this has been resolved in the following session(s), a move can take place. It could also be that there is big news to be priced in and an IB extreme breaks fairly quickly. This could for example, give rise to a trend day.

 

Ultimately, it's all about market logic and assessing what you feel is more likely to happen so when opportunities arise, you are better placed to decide on whether or not you feel they are good ones.

[Predictor 11]

I'm still long half.. missed my exit by about 1 tick.. market still seems like it wants to test the highs.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I'm still long half.. missed my exit by about 1 tick.. market still seems like it wants to test the highs.

 

Possibly, but it's currently a more appealing to go watch some paint dry! The danger I find in markets like these is when it does break against you it's sooooo slow that you feel cheated somehow and hold a bit longer than you really should.

[goodoboy 10]

So how does everyone see the current market behavior?

 

 

Thanks,

 

Market behavior is slow as it was yesterday. But still good trading to be done is this narrow range if considering the extreme ranges 1355 to 1349. I am just watching for now.

 

I am hoping for a market pull back. Then I will consider longs some stocks up until end of year.

[Predictor 11]

Stopped out on remaining half above break even... hit profit target for day.. disappointing as I missed my exit by 1 tick but that's life... this looks like a range day... buying off the 50 looks good again

[TheNegotiator 13]

One thing that I'd point out and to be absolutely clear, I'm not say we won't go higher first, is that the current rth and overnight lows are not especially strong. Now, you could say that actually nothing is especially strong anyway as there's not a lot going on, but still the overnight and rth lows were not well rejected. This could mean at some point we will retest them.

 

[Predictor 11]

Could not get filled.. off 50.. may be DFD was probably 150-200 contracts from getting filled..

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Okay... I'm long off the 50... First target 53ish may take a scalp

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Programs selling...

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ES just skipped a tick....don't recall seeing that in RT hours... spread widened I believe to 1 tick there for a second

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Buy programs triggering.. some risk here if 50 is taken out of triggering a stop run

Edited September 18, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Sellers in control.... last call was a good one though... likely break new lows..

 

Still would not short here... until 50 is taken out. at any rate.. DFD exceeded profit target but missed my exits by about 1 tick... very jittery market..

 

lol.. either that or a big trader executed a sell program to take out the longs off 50... nice one

 

well I'm dfd anyway.

Edited September 18, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Bias is short but may be tentative... shorted the surge

[Predictor 11]

Reversing off the 52 for a long scalp... gotta get out quick

[Predictor 11]

N i c e w o r k.. if you can get it

 

DFD

[slick60 10]

Looking for a high and reversal between now and Friday this week. Around the 1472.00 area would suffice for this high and then a nice sizeable retrace into October.

Still have to get up above that 1600.00 level to end this baby for a really gooooooooood short.

 

slick60

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yuck. What a lame market. At least we had a couple of decent moves earlier and I'm guessing when we break out of this consolidation from the past few days, we could get a decent move.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Looking for a high and reversal between now and Friday this week. Around the 1472.00 area would suffice for this high and then a nice sizeable retrace into October.

 

Why do you think we could get a large retrace from 1472.00?

[slick60 10]

Why do you think we could get a large retrace from 1472.00?

 

Hi N

I follow these markets using various approaches as I having posted on this thread in the past.

At present a wave pattern is telling me that we should see a retrace back to the 1390.00 area ( I felt that was large in relation to what we have been seeing recently). Also the wave pattern says we have the possibility of an irregular flat correction that we are in at present that fibs out in the area of 1472-73.00 If the high is in place at this time or very soon to come with a little pop my Delta cycle work says we are running out of time for this high to come in and to start the correction into mid October at least.

In an "UP" market this high can come in late however time is running out.

The wave pattern is really hard to put a clear handle on it and I am not certain as to how far we will go down. On my daily chart there is a 50% retrace at a 4th wave level which should be a normal pull back area. Lower will not surprise me.

 

daily chart 2012-09-19_2043 - slick60's library

The weekly chart below shows the delta cycles into the future

weekly 2012-09-19_2045 - slick60's library

 

Same reasoning as I used in April looking the opposite way of most everyone at that time. Couple posts there on pages 443 and 452.

 

Take care

 

slick60

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thanks for the explanation Slick. It certainly seems possible that we get some sort of retrace given the rejection at 1468.00. If we were to start dropping into the 'naked' part of the 9/13 profile then a test down to 1428.25 would look to be on the cards. Then similarly with the below 18.75 into the 'naked' part of the 9/6 profile, there might be a further flush lower. Below is a session gap to 1396.75 and this is 1 tick short of the balance profile VPOC at 1396.50. The market does tend to leave these kind of markers for future tests (by its very nature). This is right in the middle of a not so clean development on the long-term profile between 1386.00 and 1409.00 ish so somewhere around 90 would make sense if we were to move down.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Overnight we've seen a test of that area below I mentioned I was watching just above 45. The 45.25 is a long-term high volume peak and the 45.75 was the end of a single print. Much below this and a failure to get back above 49.50/50.00 and hold, I'd think a bigger flush could be on the cards, but who knows. There is newsflow on Greece right now and we have Philly Fed + Leading Indicators @10am. Plus there are a bunch of Fed speakers throughout the session.

 

Here are a couple of charts:-

 

 

Btw, note the 'poor' MP high from yesterday @59.00

[slick60 10]

Something I was looking at this morning was a hopeful retrace back up to a .618 level from the overall range since the 1468.00 high. Chart here shows a couple naked POC's that seem to draw price to them.

Open coming.

 

2012-09-20_0742 - slick60's library

 

slick60

[Predictor 11]

Long off the open here.... a bit concerned about the 50 overhead though

[Predictor 11]

Weighing whether 52 could be in play....report release at 10 may decide the fate of this trade

[Predictor 11]

Buyers coming in at 44....

[Predictor 11]

Retest of 50 and 53 is likely in play now

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Limit seller off 65.50 should be short term traders only.. anticipate it to lift but if it doesnt then we could retest lower

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New limit seller off the 48.50... may be serious seller... will likely reduce uncertain

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New limit buyer off 46.75... stepped up....

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I'm out.... not liking it

Edited September 20, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Bad pull on my part.. should have just reduced

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Some potential shorts setup in the 50-53 range... I'm likely DFD

Edited September 20, 2012 by Predictor

[slick60 10]

Long off the open here.... a bit concerned about the 50 overhead though

 

Hi Predictor

What does this post mean? Sorry if I appear whatever but I don't get it.

Thanks

 

slick