Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[steve46 12]

Move target to 1437.50. There is a trendline connecting from Friday and yesterday HOD.

 

Exit for 4.25 pts. There was a supply line that fully kept me in the trade, if it broke and started a making a small S/R range, I would have just exited.

 

As usual you have good instincts...I realize you are using a trend line to keep you in, but be careful....folks who use this (or any) method to keep them in a trade tend to get complacent...generally speaking if you get acquainted with how to read the broader market, in time you will be able to recognize when it is "rolling over" (when the move is exhausted).

 

Interesting that there's only you and one other person posting...clearly this is a difficult market for retail traders.....one thing you might want to consider is the issue of seasonality....this is the butt end of the slow season...most of the senior traders schedule vacation during Sept, leaving the desk to the "second team"....and the instructions they leave are simply "go with the flow and don't initiate any action on your own"...basically they are told to fill orders and stay out of trouble...as a result most of the volume is automated. The result is that when you enter a trade, unless you have a wide stop, you may get shaken out a lot....If you find that happening, you may want to try just trading the open until about 8:30...then come back at 10:30am when the New Yorkers are back from lunch...

 

For the close, if you look at my charts you will see that when price gets near to a distribution line, price tends to chop...this is purely seasonal and what it tells you is to stay out (don't take positions there)...instead I look to indentify the trend in the middle (between the lines) and take a position as price retraces toward the origin of a previous trending move....the attached chart shows one example...the logic is simple and should be comfortable for you...you see the previous high and then a trend move down....as price retraces you want to wait for price to "stick its head up" and then fail...risk is generally modest (little more than a point) and the reward is relative to local volatility (for this season, about 3 points on average).

Edited September 11, 2012 by steve46

[goodoboy 10]

Thanks Steve,

 

Good comments. The supply and demand lines are like training wheels for me now, as they are considered in my trade management plan once I enter a trade.

 

HAHAHAHHA "basically they are told to fill orders and stay out of trouble...as a result most of the volume is automated." This is pretty interested to know how these big buyers/sellers operate.

 

I am not sure where everyone is right now. For the ease of learning and keeping me focus, I am just watching price on the chart (3 min) as it reaches support and resistance levels. The same as I was before.

 

I have some rules or criteria I consider before taking a trade. I like the logic entry as you mentioned on your thread with waiting for price to open and close below level.

 

I followed this logic today and took short at 1432.75 and stop at 1434. Miss it by one tick. That would have been a good short down to 1430, which is where ES started from since open. dismorning

 

As far as market being difficult, well I wouldn't know. hahaha. I know one thing, its always difficult when I don't know what i am doing. I have come along way since i started in March. However, I still have much ways to go as everyday its a curve ball.

[goodoboy 10]

I'm guessing the recession was priced in much more then most of us realized.

 

I think so as well. And certainly didn't expect market highs this time of year. For this reason, a few stocks that I wanted to buy a bottom and hold for awhile I missed on, so I would like a deeper pull back before going upwards.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Pretty important information today that the Germans ratified the ESM and that was potentially a big hurdle for the market. Remember though, there's also the FOMC tomorrow at which people will want to see the Fed to commit to more QE. I don't want or need to predict what we might do from here. All I will point out is that one - extremes are usually made on a culmination of good or bad news (i.e. good at tops, bad at bottoms) two - if the Fed dilute the $ more, it won't matter what the technicals are saying as price will need to account for lower value in $. Anyway, not that we need to look too far down the line you know

 

[goodoboy 10]

long ES 1437.50 target( don't know, maybe new high of the year). stop loss1436.75, more than like likely i will breakeven, if go to test highs of overnight and come back down. Lets see it goes, I am either right, or right back out.

[TheNegotiator 13]

long ES 1437.50 target( don't know, maybe new high of the year). stop loss1436.75, more than like likely i will breakeven, if go to test highs of overnight and come back down. Lets see it goes, I am either right, or right back out.

 

I am wondering the reasons for your entry/stop price combination here.

 

[Predictor 11]

Hit profit target for day... was able to get in overnigh and take it off at the highs while the announcement was made. They really tried to run out the small speculators before driving it higher...

-----

Bias is currently short at these highs...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Bias is currently short at these highs...

 

Why ?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Let me ask a few questions. What has the RTH range been so far today in the first ~40mins of trading? What does that indicate regarding OTF (big players)? What are the possible reasons for this? How would this impact the way you trade for the rest of the session?

[ForexTraderX 10]

long at 1437.50 on the ES futures

[Predictor 11]

My read tells me higher probability of a strong sell off... not looking for that but a retest of 32-35 looks likely. Bigs selling at highs.... been selling all week

 

Course could be wrong... everyone should do own analysis

 

Neg... too many factors to share.. many proprietary.. but market should have been up a lot more... it just didn't perform.

[ForexTraderX 10]

I'm looking for a bit of a breakout here... U.S. data slightly disappointing (fueling the QE rumor mill) should help a long trade, and of COURSE germany agreed to not block the bailout and euro progress... I mean, they would literally be cutting off their nose to spite their face, seeing as they have the most to lose should weaker EZ states default, and the most to gain in terms of debt repayment should it all stick together.

 

Both of these little news pieces will likely bode well for the stock market today...

 

also, we've been consolidating now going into 5 days since we the move up last thursday.

 

And from what I can see, impulse moves up on an intraday basis are in style.

 

Though, I usulaly don't play breakouts, and it's possible that we could drop down a bit more before we push up...though I have a good deal of conviction that we will indeed move up further towards 1450 over the next 2-5 trading sessions.

 

Anyway, not my favorite trade, and I'll look to get out quick should price start to move, but it has all the reasons to continue an upward move, except for the fact that we just retested last weeks highs. But this one factor for me isn't enough to not take this trade. It may be enough for me to lose of course, lol. time will tell.

[ForexTraderX 10]

My read tells me higher probability of a strong sell off... not looking for that but a retest of 32-35 looks likely. Bigs selling at highs.... been selling all week

 

Course could be wrong... everyone should do own analysis

 

Neg... too many factors to share.. many proprietary.. but market should have been up a lot more... it just didn't perform.

 

U may be right on this one predictor... my long here isn't the stuff that dream trades are made of, but I still see more reasons to move up than down, and should it move up, well, i'll take a little risk for a potential very nice reward.

[Predictor 11]

Looking for 35's.... 35's in play... big selling

[ForexTraderX 10]

Out for a 5 tick loss

[ForexTraderX 10]

Looking for 35's.... 35's in play... big selling

 

I think I jumped in a bit too early here... gonna hold off for a bit, see what happens if we get down around 1434-33...

 

though I'm up a good bit from the london session, I really don't want to give anything back here, so I may try one more stab at a long, but after that i'll likely be done.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I'm looking for a bit of a breakout here... U.S. data slightly disappointing (fueling the QE rumor mill) should help a long trade, and of COURSE germany agreed to not block the bailout and euro progress... I mean, they would literally be cutting off their nose to spite their face, seeing as they have the most to lose should weaker EZ states default, and the most to gain in terms of debt repayment should it all stick together.

 

Both of these little news pieces will likely bode well for the stock market today...

 

also, we've been consolidating now going into 5 days since we the move up last thursday.

 

And from what I can see, impulse moves up on an intraday basis are in style.

 

Though, I usulaly don't play breakouts, and it's possible that we could drop down a bit more before we push up...though I have a good deal of conviction that we will indeed move up further towards 1450 over the next 2-5 trading sessions.

 

Anyway, not my favorite trade, and I'll look to get out quick should price start to move, but it has all the reasons to continue an upward move, except for the fact that we just retested last weeks highs. But this one factor for me isn't enough to not take this trade. It may be enough for me to lose of course, lol. time will tell.

 

Agree in part. I would question the logic in playing for a breakout before it actually occurs, near the extreme. My view is that the range so far is tiny. There may well be one or two moves of decent size later though. Currently the high isn't especially convincing although it doesn't automatically qualify it for an immediate breakout either. What we might do is move down to test for buyers before taking a 'run up' at the the current high again to see if we can break higher. Just one idea.

[goodoboy 10]

long ES 1437.50 target( don't know, maybe new high of the year). stop loss1436.75, more than like likely i will breakeven, if go to test highs of overnight and come back down. Lets see it goes, I am either right, or right back out.

 

breakeven on that, no breakout after all. I am just watching now.

[ForexTraderX 10]

I think 1433.5 and 1431, and 1428.5 should be interesting. if I get long again, it'll be right aroound one of those 3 numbers...

[ForexTraderX 10]

Agree in part. I would question the logic in playing for a breakout before it actually occurs, near the extreme. My view is that the range so far is tiny. There may well be one or two moves of decent size later though. Currently the high isn't especially convincing although it doesn't automatically qualify it for an immediate breakout either. What we might do is move down to test for buyers before taking a 'run up' at the the current high again to see if we can break higher. Just one idea.

 

Actually, my thoughts exactly. After taking a 5 tick smack, i'm content to wait and see what price does if it hits one of my 3 support levels. After a really nice europe session trading the euro futures, i'd feel like a moron if I gave it all back here by trading what I believe as opposed to what I see.

 

guess i'll just have to wait and see if I have another trade, or if i'm done for the day.

[ForexTraderX 10]

long 1434.75, and this is my last trade.

[ForexTraderX 10]

eh, out at BE... I think I'm done. just not feeling much like watching charts now...and that's always my que to close em up.

[ForexTraderX 10]

long 1433.50... and this is y last

[Predictor 11]

Captured the short but not as much as I wanted due to poor entry. Attempted to insta-reverse but stopped out for small loss. I've well exceeded my profit targets for today... dfd nice work if you can get it.

 

As for where we go from here... uncertain but if the bigs were unhappy with the ruling then we could break 32 and move lower. This is looking a lot more likely to me.

[ForexTraderX 10]

out for a 1 tick profit... just not feeling it. good luck guys, maybe see u all around tomorrow, but for today i'm done