Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Nice one FTX. Good way to finish the trading week! :)

 

Yes, it is... and it makes me feel better about my spot trading this week, which was just out of control yesterday, and marginally profitable at best today! lol.

 

can't win em all... at least I can win a few in the futures.

 

BTW.... do you trade or have you traded spot forex before Neg? I always find I do much better in futures trading... probably due primarily to transaction costs and such... but I aks because the last 2 months i've been posting profits each week in spot, but my futures trading has been significantly better almost every single day without exception. It's usually not THIS much better for me...

 

any experience with that yourself?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, it is... and it makes me feel better about my spot trading this week, which was just out of control yesterday, and marginally profitable at best today! lol.

 

can't win em all... at least I can win a few in the futures.

 

BTW.... do you trade or have you traded spot forex before Neg? I always find I do much better in futures trading... probably due primarily to transaction costs and such... but I aks because the last 2 months i've been posting profits each week in spot, but my futures trading has been significantly better almost every single day without exception. It's usually not THIS much better for me...

 

any experience with that yourself?

 

I'm all about the futures and always have been!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm seeing some indications that we may be putting in the top for a very long time here.. maybe the year. don't tend to make long term forecasts but.... will keep it in mind. Not going to get holden to the idea though

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm seeing some indications that we may be putting in the top for a very long time here.. maybe the year. don't tend to make long term forecasts but.... will keep it in mind. Not going to get holden to the idea though

 

What specifically gives you this impression?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I'm all about the futures and always have been!

 

Well, your probably smarter, richer, and happier for it too, lol.

 

just seems that i personally see a very distinct difference in profits from those two asset classes, wondering if anyone else is in my boat here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Notice techs are weak today with warning and worries about Microsoft Windows 8... while banks are strong due to europe news...Hedge funds buying banks short tech. This is giving SP500 a relative strength over the NASDAQ. Looking for strength in S&P 500 to resolve but if wrong will take a loss....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Notice techs are weak today with warning and worries about Microsoft Windows 8... while banks are strong due to europe news...Hedge funds buying banks short tech. This is giving SP500 a relative strength over the NASDAQ. Looking for strength in S&P 500 to resolve but if wrong will take a loss....

 

Let's see what happens. The one thing everyone should bear in mind is the old saying "don't fade the fed". Of course that is when they actually do something rather than just the market anticipating that they'll do something!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unfortunately shorts covered at the 33.. buyer stepped up bid to 35. short run at 36... need to see break below 33 here

----

Notice that second run shaked out the weak shorts... without short covering.. market drops back to range... looking for a run down here

---

Limit buyer at 35 taken out.. good signs.

 

---

Buy program triggered at 11:30 AM. Often does... limit selle exhausted buy program. Not as confident now... though uncertainty high

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Notice techs are weak today with warning and worries about Microsoft Windows 8... while banks are strong due to europe news...Hedge funds buying banks short tech. This is giving SP500 a relative strength over the NASDAQ. Looking for strength in S&P 500 to resolve but if wrong will take a loss....

 

Ok... thanks for the reply.

 

I see what your saying, but... I'm not sure I agree with the reasons...

 

first off, as far as techs being "weak" today, one may be able to say this today, but doing so would be taking todays price action completely out of context. We had an unbelievable move up yesterday, particularly considering we made such a move up not as a rebound from a stunning drop, but on high volume on a breakout ie: continuation of sorts. In such situations, it is in fact less likely to have the subsequent day do anything other than create a fairly tight range day. But don't take my word for it...open a daily chart, and go day by day back though it... find days that move up or down strong, and look to see how often the subsequent day actually trades right around the closing price of the prior "big move" day. More than 50% of the time, this is true.

 

Microsoft 8 windows simply has no bearing on the broader market. whether windows 8 is works well or not.... even whether it even sells well or completely flops... will simply not matter when compared to global and macro economic factors such as bond yields, central banking interest rates, QE's and other forms of stimulus, trends in major data releases like employment, consumer borrowing rates, the status of the europe drama... etc.

 

If hedge funds are buying banks, it is likely becase over the recent months, many banks have been trading for below book value. that is, if one were to liquidate the company, one would have more in cold hard cash than all the value of the stock right now. thats....really really rare actually. Want to know the last time we saw such a circumstance become commonplace? near the very low of the market when the dot coms crashed. Such oversold conditions are actually typical of the end of a crash.

 

As far as shorting tech, well, I would first want to know how you know this about "hedge funds"... and 2nd, I would ask how that plays into the biggger picture, and I would want to know how successful said hedge funds have been. Remember, many many hedge funds have lost money the last few years... in which case, if such sellers of tech are those underperforming funds, it may be better to fade them by going long. at very least, it would indicate that they are wrong the market. Bottom line here is...too much speculation to draw concrete conclusions either way.

 

As far as S&P relative strength to the Nasdaq... well, the nasdaq is above it's 2007 highs by a considerable amount. the S&P is yet to cross this theshold. in terms of value, the S&P is a better bargain... which brings me back to hedge funds. if they are indeed short tech long banks, it's a revision to the mean play... they could make a profit even if both continue to move up (albeit banking would have to move up faster than tech...but due to it's intrinsic value now, i speculate this would be the case)

 

I guess what i'm really saying is... I don't see how what you've mentioned will have any meaningful impact on the world wide flow of money when compared to things like central bank interest rates, bond yields, the possiblilty of more QE style stimulus, the emerging conviction from the euro zone to provide an unlimited amount of capital to stabilze potential soverigens from uncontrolled defaults...etc.

 

And on a final note, when banks trade under book value, but bonds in some areas are actually charging you to hold them (via negative interst rates)... there is probably a good chance that the bond markets are overvalued, but the stock markets are undervalued....

 

and in case your wondering, the world bond markets dwarf the sum total of the worlds equity markets by a factor of at least 10:1.

 

so, that's a whole lot of money that is in some cases actually receiving a fixed negative return. it wouldn't take much of it to decide to by some banking stocks that have more cash in hand than their entire stock is worth, to push U.S. equity prices to a new high.

 

Sorry if this comes off as some argumentative post... it isn't meant to be that. I did want to know what you were considering since I have a diametrically opposed view of things. (I have not been more bullish on the U.S. equity markets in 4 years now)

 

And I hope you can apprecaite the points I raise here. In summary, I would say the most important thing to consider is not what just made the wallstreet journal front page... but how will that alter or affect the flow of money around the world. Pay close attention to things that could literally change or alter the feelings of hundreds of millions of market participants world wide. If it can... then it's worth noting. If it can't...well, it may move the market for a few hours or a day... but in the end, it won't matter if it doesn't significantly alter where value is in the world and where the world wide flow of money is currently moving towards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Short covering exhausted... test lows anticipated

 

---

Range so far is very narrow... difficult day trade unless positioned well.

 

New buying coming in at lows... may retest to open. uncertain.

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
long 1433.25 stop 1432.25, target 1438 (provided a break above resistance 1434)

 

reason: trend of the moment looks upward and simply buying on a retrace.

 

Move target to 1437.50. There is a trendline connecting from Friday and yesterday HOD.

 

Exit for 4.25 pts. There was a supply line that fully kept me in the trade, if it broke and started a making a small S/R range, I would have just exited.

Edited by goodoboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Neg, yesterday was rough. The normal liquidity patterns seem to be changing to me... Its like there is less real liquidity when the market moves or else there is just too much. I think this may be the HFT bots.... keeping the market in a narrow range most time and then when they turn tail when the market starts to move..

 

So you get basically markets with very little opportunity and then these huge jumps that make it hard to control risk..

 

I've been day trading ES for 3 years (much of that via my signals) and this current environment feels new to me... although I'm not 100% sure that it is new or just because I'm trying to control my risk better.

 

As a tape reader, I need the volatility to be at a certain level to read the tape... when its not then I rely more on pattern analysis..

 

That's not to say I'm not making profits... but ever since September started I've been having a more difficult time... I'm cautious of this month. I think we could have a jumpy market. I've been leaning short heavy and I'm trying to add more long trades because I make much more from the long side.... I think the market is trying to decide whether to dump several % or rally several %.

It feels to me like the HFT's are squeezing out the mid frequency traders. (day traders making 3-30 trades per day). so you get micro traders and long term traders only....

 

The macro picture is growing weaker in my mind... but the bulls are encouraged that policy makers on every level are taking action... I'm guessing the recession was priced in much more then most of us realized.

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reading selling at highs... potential for market to grind lower

 

This 33 level (exact level not given out) is important.. if market drives lower then we could get a run... bias to look for longs here.. stop below 32

 

Sell bots may trigger... NQ has went below open...

 

 

 

---

 

 

Bias is long

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Limit buyer stepped in... exhausted sellers....

---

No luck... took small loss on last trade... looked like it was going to work... but heavy limit seller

 

Euro court news... Euro ruling on plan.... higher risk likely kept buyers from bidding up market. Overlooked this.

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

took a short at 1433, stopped out at 1434. -1pt. Target was 1430.

 

Price action came to this support, stalled, broke and retested, i took it short.

 

:( Wait for meee little ES. :)

Edited by goodoboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 22nd November 2024.   BTC flirts with $100K, Stocks higher, Eurozone PMI signals recession risk.   Asia & European Sessions:   Geopolitical risks are back in the spotlight on fears of escalation in the Ukraine-Russia after Russia reportedly used a new ICBM to retaliate against Ukraine’s use of US and UK made missiles to attack inside Russia. The markets continue to assess the election results as President-elect Trump fills in his cabinet choices, with the key Treasury Secretary spot still open. The Fed’s rate path continues to be debated with a -25 bp December cut seen as 50-50. Earnings season is coming to an end after mixed reports, though AI remains a major driver. Profit taking and rebalancing into year-end are adding to gyrations too. Wall Street rallied, led by the Dow’s 1.06% broadbased pop. The S&P500 advanced 0.53% and the NASDAQ inched up 0.03%. Asian stocks rose after  Nvidia’s rally. Nikkei added 1% to 38,415.32 after the Tokyo inflation data slowed to 2.3% in October from 2.5% in the prior month, reaching its lowest level since January. The rally was also supported by chip-related stocks tracked Nvidia. Overnight-indexed swaps indicate that it’s certain the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points on Nov. 27, with a 22% chance of a 75 basis points reduction. European stocks futures climbed even though German Q3 GDP growth revised down to 0.1% q/q from the 0.2% q/q reported initially. Cryptocurrency market has gained approximately $1 trillion since Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 election. Recent announcement for the SEC boosted cryptos. Chair Gary Gensler will step down on January 20, the day Trump is set to be inaugurated. Gensler has pushed for more protections for crypto investors. MicroStrategy Inc.’s plans to accelerate purchases of the token, and the debut of options on US Bitcoin ETFs also support this rally. Trump’s transition team has begun discussions on the possibility of creating a new White House position focused on digital asset policy.     Financial Markets Performance: The US Dollar recovered overnight and closed at 107.00. Bitcoin currently at 99,300,  flirting with a run toward the 100,000 level. The EURUSD drifts below 1.05, the GBPUSD dips to June’s bottom at 1.2570, while USDJPY rebounded to 154.94. The AUDNZD spiked to 2-year highs amid speculation the RBNZ will cut the official cash rate by more than 50 bps next week. Oil surged 2.12% to $70.46. Gold spiked to 2,697 after escalation alerts between Russia and Ukraine. Heightened geopolitical tensions drove investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has surged by 30% this year. Haven demand balanced out the pressure from a strong USD following mixed US labor data. Silver rose 0.9% to 31.38, while palladium increased by 0.9% to 1,040.85 per ounce. Platinum remained unchanged. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • A few trending stocks at support BAM MNKD RBBN at https://stockconsultant.com/?MNKD
    • BMBL Bumble stock watch, pull back to 7.94 support area with high trade quality at https://stockconsultant.com/?BMBL
    • LUMN Lumen Technologies stock watch, pull back to 7.43 support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?LUMN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.