Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[ForexTraderX 10]

exited the trade at just over 3 points... I believe i'm done for the day now..

 

exit price was 1436

[TheNegotiator 13]

exited the trade at just over 3 points... I believe i'm done for the day now..

 

exit price was 1436

 

Nice one FTX. Good way to finish the trading week!

[ForexTraderX 10]

Nice one FTX. Good way to finish the trading week!

 

Yes, it is... and it makes me feel better about my spot trading this week, which was just out of control yesterday, and marginally profitable at best today! lol.

 

can't win em all... at least I can win a few in the futures.

 

BTW.... do you trade or have you traded spot forex before Neg? I always find I do much better in futures trading... probably due primarily to transaction costs and such... but I aks because the last 2 months i've been posting profits each week in spot, but my futures trading has been significantly better almost every single day without exception. It's usually not THIS much better for me...

 

any experience with that yourself?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yes, it is... and it makes me feel better about my spot trading this week, which was just out of control yesterday, and marginally profitable at best today! lol.

 

can't win em all... at least I can win a few in the futures.

 

BTW.... do you trade or have you traded spot forex before Neg? I always find I do much better in futures trading... probably due primarily to transaction costs and such... but I aks because the last 2 months i've been posting profits each week in spot, but my futures trading has been significantly better almost every single day without exception. It's usually not THIS much better for me...

 

any experience with that yourself?

 

I'm all about the futures and always have been!

[Predictor 11]

I'm seeing some indications that we may be putting in the top for a very long time here.. maybe the year. don't tend to make long term forecasts but.... will keep it in mind. Not going to get holden to the idea though

[ForexTraderX 10]

I'm seeing some indications that we may be putting in the top for a very long time here.. maybe the year. don't tend to make long term forecasts but.... will keep it in mind. Not going to get holden to the idea though

 

What specifically gives you this impression?

[ForexTraderX 10]

I'm all about the futures and always have been!

 

Well, your probably smarter, richer, and happier for it too, lol.

 

just seems that i personally see a very distinct difference in profits from those two asset classes, wondering if anyone else is in my boat here.

[Predictor 11]

Limit sellers off the 35.50.... look for retest of near open but could be wrong.. FX - fundamentals.. calendars

[Predictor 11]

Buy programs kicking in at 33.. expect them to be taken out soon but could be wrong. No bid above 35... have to remain open though to a continuation

[ForexTraderX 10]

Limit sellers off the 35.50.... look for retest of near open but could be wrong.. FX - fundamentals.. calendars

 

any particular reason why you feel we are reaching a climax high ?

[Predictor 11]

Notice techs are weak today with warning and worries about Microsoft Windows 8... while banks are strong due to europe news...Hedge funds buying banks short tech. This is giving SP500 a relative strength over the NASDAQ. Looking for strength in S&P 500 to resolve but if wrong will take a loss....

[TheNegotiator 13]

Notice techs are weak today with warning and worries about Microsoft Windows 8... while banks are strong due to europe news...Hedge funds buying banks short tech. This is giving SP500 a relative strength over the NASDAQ. Looking for strength in S&P 500 to resolve but if wrong will take a loss....

 

Let's see what happens. The one thing everyone should bear in mind is the old saying "don't fade the fed". Of course that is when they actually do something rather than just the market anticipating that they'll do something!

[Predictor 11]

Unfortunately shorts covered at the 33.. buyer stepped up bid to 35. short run at 36... need to see break below 33 here

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Notice that second run shaked out the weak shorts... without short covering.. market drops back to range... looking for a run down here

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Limit buyer at 35 taken out.. good signs.

 

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Buy program triggered at 11:30 AM. Often does... limit selle exhausted buy program. Not as confident now... though uncertainty high

Edited September 7, 2012 by Predictor

[ForexTraderX 10]

Notice techs are weak today with warning and worries about Microsoft Windows 8... while banks are strong due to europe news...Hedge funds buying banks short tech. This is giving SP500 a relative strength over the NASDAQ. Looking for strength in S&P 500 to resolve but if wrong will take a loss....

 

Ok... thanks for the reply.

 

I see what your saying, but... I'm not sure I agree with the reasons...

 

first off, as far as techs being "weak" today, one may be able to say this today, but doing so would be taking todays price action completely out of context. We had an unbelievable move up yesterday, particularly considering we made such a move up not as a rebound from a stunning drop, but on high volume on a breakout ie: continuation of sorts. In such situations, it is in fact less likely to have the subsequent day do anything other than create a fairly tight range day. But don't take my word for it...open a daily chart, and go day by day back though it... find days that move up or down strong, and look to see how often the subsequent day actually trades right around the closing price of the prior "big move" day. More than 50% of the time, this is true.

 

Microsoft 8 windows simply has no bearing on the broader market. whether windows 8 is works well or not.... even whether it even sells well or completely flops... will simply not matter when compared to global and macro economic factors such as bond yields, central banking interest rates, QE's and other forms of stimulus, trends in major data releases like employment, consumer borrowing rates, the status of the europe drama... etc.

 

If hedge funds are buying banks, it is likely becase over the recent months, many banks have been trading for below book value. that is, if one were to liquidate the company, one would have more in cold hard cash than all the value of the stock right now. thats....really really rare actually. Want to know the last time we saw such a circumstance become commonplace? near the very low of the market when the dot coms crashed. Such oversold conditions are actually typical of the end of a crash.

 

As far as shorting tech, well, I would first want to know how you know this about "hedge funds"... and 2nd, I would ask how that plays into the biggger picture, and I would want to know how successful said hedge funds have been. Remember, many many hedge funds have lost money the last few years... in which case, if such sellers of tech are those underperforming funds, it may be better to fade them by going long. at very least, it would indicate that they are wrong the market. Bottom line here is...too much speculation to draw concrete conclusions either way.

 

As far as S&P relative strength to the Nasdaq... well, the nasdaq is above it's 2007 highs by a considerable amount. the S&P is yet to cross this theshold. in terms of value, the S&P is a better bargain... which brings me back to hedge funds. if they are indeed short tech long banks, it's a revision to the mean play... they could make a profit even if both continue to move up (albeit banking would have to move up faster than tech...but due to it's intrinsic value now, i speculate this would be the case)

 

I guess what i'm really saying is... I don't see how what you've mentioned will have any meaningful impact on the world wide flow of money when compared to things like central bank interest rates, bond yields, the possiblilty of more QE style stimulus, the emerging conviction from the euro zone to provide an unlimited amount of capital to stabilze potential soverigens from uncontrolled defaults...etc.

 

And on a final note, when banks trade under book value, but bonds in some areas are actually charging you to hold them (via negative interst rates)... there is probably a good chance that the bond markets are overvalued, but the stock markets are undervalued....

 

and in case your wondering, the world bond markets dwarf the sum total of the worlds equity markets by a factor of at least 10:1.

 

so, that's a whole lot of money that is in some cases actually receiving a fixed negative return. it wouldn't take much of it to decide to by some banking stocks that have more cash in hand than their entire stock is worth, to push U.S. equity prices to a new high.

 

Sorry if this comes off as some argumentative post... it isn't meant to be that. I did want to know what you were considering since I have a diametrically opposed view of things. (I have not been more bullish on the U.S. equity markets in 4 years now)

 

And I hope you can apprecaite the points I raise here. In summary, I would say the most important thing to consider is not what just made the wallstreet journal front page... but how will that alter or affect the flow of money around the world. Pay close attention to things that could literally change or alter the feelings of hundreds of millions of market participants world wide. If it can... then it's worth noting. If it can't...well, it may move the market for a few hours or a day... but in the end, it won't matter if it doesn't significantly alter where value is in the world and where the world wide flow of money is currently moving towards.

[Predictor 11]

Order flow has turned very negative... look for restest of lows

[Predictor 11]

Short covering exhausted... test lows anticipated

 

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Range so far is very narrow... difficult day trade unless positioned well.

 

New buying coming in at lows... may retest to open. uncertain.

Edited September 10, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

That was a difficult short to capture.... I tell you that. I didn't get it. Bias has shift to long for scalp to potential run back to prior range here...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Morning everyone! How's trading yesterday then? Wasn't trading myself. Here's a chart for today anyway

 

[goodoboy 10]

long 1433.25 stop 1432.25, target 1438 (provided a break above resistance 1434)

 

reason: trend of the moment looks upward and simply buying on a retrace.

[goodoboy 10]

long 1433.25 stop 1432.25, target 1438 (provided a break above resistance 1434)

 

reason: trend of the moment looks upward and simply buying on a retrace.

 

Move target to 1437.50. There is a trendline connecting from Friday and yesterday HOD.

 

Exit for 4.25 pts. There was a supply line that fully kept me in the trade, if it broke and started a making a small S/R range, I would have just exited.

Edited September 11, 2012 by goodoboy

[Predictor 11]

Neg, yesterday was rough. The normal liquidity patterns seem to be changing to me... Its like there is less real liquidity when the market moves or else there is just too much. I think this may be the HFT bots.... keeping the market in a narrow range most time and then when they turn tail when the market starts to move..

 

So you get basically markets with very little opportunity and then these huge jumps that make it hard to control risk..

 

I've been day trading ES for 3 years (much of that via my signals) and this current environment feels new to me... although I'm not 100% sure that it is new or just because I'm trying to control my risk better.

 

As a tape reader, I need the volatility to be at a certain level to read the tape... when its not then I rely more on pattern analysis..

 

That's not to say I'm not making profits... but ever since September started I've been having a more difficult time... I'm cautious of this month. I think we could have a jumpy market. I've been leaning short heavy and I'm trying to add more long trades because I make much more from the long side.... I think the market is trying to decide whether to dump several % or rally several %.

It feels to me like the HFT's are squeezing out the mid frequency traders. (day traders making 3-30 trades per day). so you get micro traders and long term traders only....

 

The macro picture is growing weaker in my mind... but the bulls are encouraged that policy makers on every level are taking action... I'm guessing the recession was priced in much more then most of us realized.

Edited September 11, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Reading selling at highs... potential for market to grind lower

 

This 33 level (exact level not given out) is important.. if market drives lower then we could get a run... bias to look for longs here.. stop below 32

 

Sell bots may trigger... NQ has went below open...

 

 

 

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Bias is long

Edited September 11, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

LQ providers pulling out... look for pop up here

[Predictor 11]

Limit buyer stepped in... exhausted sellers....

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No luck... took small loss on last trade... looked like it was going to work... but heavy limit seller

 

Euro court news... Euro ruling on plan.... higher risk likely kept buyers from bidding up market. Overlooked this.

Edited September 11, 2012 by Predictor

[goodoboy 10]

took a short at 1433, stopped out at 1434. -1pt. Target was 1430.

 

Price action came to this support, stalled, broke and retested, i took it short.

 

Wait for meee little ES.

Edited September 11, 2012 by goodoboy