Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

well, that's 2 trades in the ES... almost 5 points.

 

I hear what your saying, and the daily PA looked bearish... however, I figured after the run up around 1412 in the aftermarket session, and considering the moves in the euro and crude, etc... I just figured that a retracement back to yesterdays high would produce a big enough of a bounce for me to catch something on.

 

the 2nd trade, well, near the LOD yesterday, a likely lack of liquidity on the offer side, and a news catalyst creating a relative liquidity gap/kneejerk selloff by bernake talk, and I figured we had a perfect environment for a slight rebound back to yesterdays high around 1402.50, but, since I'm done, and want to be done...2 points was a pretty easy pick.

 

good trading

 

I think the second trade looked much better imo, although given the test into and possible reversal back out of yesterday's range, the potential for a bigger profit was there. Either way profit is profit. Well done.

[ForexTraderX 10]

This is what we did (excluding last move which just touched yesterday's vpoc):-

 

 

We basically ping-ponged between those high vol areas which are also reflected on rob's charts from earlier. The last retrace on the chart corresponded to the rth mid, rth low vol, overnight vpoc. Was a good short in addition to the one at 1409.25.

 

Ya, actually, IMO, that short was the trade of the day in the ES... I missed it, but the long at 1402.50 ended up being a lucky grab IMO... and the bounce from 1397 I had no idea would push up to 1407+... thought the earlier long entry I took at 1398.25 was less "lucky" than the one at 1402.50...

 

though, V bottom reversals are common when there is a high impact news catalyst that causes it... in fact, it's probably the #1 cause of V bottom reversals... since the vast majority of reversals take time to develop (consolidation), or are clear double/triple bottoms, etc...

 

but, given the daily price action off of yesterday, and the overnight session move up to 1412... a short down to 1407 was a slam dunk, and then the subsequent 15 min reversal taht took place around 9:45 am EST.... ya... short really was the better opportunity.

 

thought, i wish i still had my long from 1398.25 :p

[goodoboy 10]

I just woke up to see market moving upwards, now its moving down.

 

short at 1407 target 1396, but this depends on what happens depending on all this BB talks. so trade management now.

 

price actions making lower highs for now.

 

exit at 1403.75. Really poor trade management on that trade as I moved target to 1398, but then moved it back when price got 1398 back to 1396. The old more more more more got me. Lesson learned.:crap::crap:

[ForexTraderX 10]

I think the second trade looked much better imo,

 

LOL... well, it seems we both feel just about the same way about each of the "fairly obvious" opportunities in the market today...

 

was just saying dispite this big freaking "you got off the train WAAY too early buddy!" bounce i'm seeing... short above 1409 was the best opportunity, given all the information that could have been accounted for before "no heli" ben was scheduled to talk.

[TheNegotiator 13]

thought, i wish i still had my long from 1398.25 :p

 

Doesn't matter. Next trade

 

What's everyone's view on if we get back into yesterday's range again?

[ForexTraderX 10]

exit at 1403.75. Really poor trade management on that trade as I moved target to 1398, but then moved it back when price got 1398 back to 1396. The old more more more more got me. Lesson learned.:crap::crap:

 

Well, as Neg said... profit is profit...but, yea... particularly when a news catalyst is responsible for the move... unless a catalyst propells a market out of farily established trading range, or is some total surprise that could change the greater outlook and sentiment in the markets (like, germany announces it's leaving the euro... that would qualify as a total shock that could change the future context of things)... count on news moves reversing as liquiidty dries up at the edges of recent, previous days highs and lows.

 

At very least, it's ALWAYS wise IMO to tighten up a stop after the market makes a "parabolic" move...since they are unsustainable...and if news was the catalyst, then this is even more often the case.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Doesn't matter. Next trade

 

What's everyone's view on if we get back into yesterday's range again?

 

given the V reversal, and sentiment contributing towards moves in other major risk currency markets (euro, gbp, etc...)... i think we'll grind upwards... if not break out strong above it.

 

in theory, I'd love to get long around 1400, with a stop 2-3 ticks below the low of the day, but i'm personally done now. time to pat myself on the back, register for that trading competition that mystic is holding, and enjoy the weekend.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thought I'd post a little update to the chart. I forgot to mention I spotted a Db special earlier so I highlighted it on the chart:-

 

[ForexTraderX 10]

Fruit machine trading.

 

Fruit machine?? I'm not sure if i've actually ever seen a fruit machine... candy machine, DVD machine, gumball, and even porn machine....but.. fruit?

 

and, to add insult to my injury of ignorance... i also kinda didn't get it.

 

been a while since i understood neither the point nor the phrasing used in a sentence... maybe I really just need to get out more, though if you care to explain, i'll do my best to comprehend eh?

[bakrob99 11]

EDT 10:50 Market looks lower to me, no buyers jumping in here

 

UPDATE 10:54 Of course, the sellers aren't exactly jumping in either

[ForexTraderX 10]

EDT 10:50 Market looks lower to me, no buyers jumping in here

 

I kinda see that too... seems a lack of conviction...however... it doesn't feel right. seems higher is more liikely... and, as I type, it's starting to move...

 

if it wasn't for friday, i'd likely be in now, and long... i think a retest of around the daily high at 1409 is very very likely, and in fact, a retest of the overnight session highs around 1412 would be the target for me, if i was in this trade.

[ForexTraderX 10]

on a 1 min, it's nice volume on the move up...

 

ok..there we go...

 

gee. too bad the market doesn't always move as I type... trading owuld be really really easy if my typing would produce such uncanny correlation to market moves as it has today.

 

even a broken clock is right twice a day...

 

though... now that' we've touched 1410, it's hard to say.

 

i still think we'll retest 1412+ before we see any real significant moves down, but... couldn't say with confidence either way.

 

I will say this... HAD I been in this little move from 1405 to 1410... i would have stops locking in about a point of profit or more... i just couldn't say where we go from here, other than "more up sounds more likley than down"

[ForexTraderX 10]

well, seems we came 1 tick from 1412, then started to sell off. at this point, I have no clue whatsoever what the market will do. probably up. maybe down. maybe it'll surprise us and find some new way to move besides up or down.

 

anyway, that's it for me now, since i'm neither trading, nor do i even have an opinion since it pretty much hit what I was thinking it might.

 

time for the weekend.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Fruit machine?? I'm not sure if i've actually ever seen a fruit machine... candy machine, DVD machine, gumball, and even porn machine....but.. fruit?

 

and, to add insult to my injury of ignorance... i also kinda didn't get it.

 

been a while since i understood neither the point nor the phrasing used in a sentence... maybe I really just need to get out more, though if you care to explain, i'll do my best to comprehend eh?

 

Lol. Fruit machine = Slot machine

[goodoboy 10]

Doesn't matter. Next trade

 

What's everyone's view on if we get back into yesterday's range again?

 

still waiting for 1412 to break.

 

long 1409.25 stop 1408.25 target 1416, if 1412 breaks.

 

reason: trend of the moment is up, and i want to get on board.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Lol. Fruit machine = Slot machine

 

Oh I don't know... I didn't think it was that bad of a trade (though, I will admit it worked out about as good as it could have)

 

Gaps that fill will very frequently produce some sort of reversal in price action after they fill, and the market opening at 1406.50 left about a 4 point gap, which isn't a bad sized gap given the generally rangy market we're seeing the last couple weeks. (no clear trend direction for the longer term IMO)

 

you pointed out that 1400 was the Vol weight POC, and it's also a major psych number... I figured with a stop at 1398, it would catch a bounce anywhwere between there... and since the drop essentially created a "liquidity gap" from about 1405-1406, down to my entry around 1402.50... it seemed a safe bet that a move back up at least to 1405 was a likely outcome.

 

that being said, i don't like to hold trades for long during big news events because they can be unpredictable particullarly when in the middle of a trading range. So, at the first possible stalling point (1405), I looked to get out. The luck was the exit... but the entry wasn't so bad, and I was planning on making it a risk free trade at + 8 ticks anyway, so given this conservative risk managment plan, I think it was better than a fruit machine.

 

Maybe more like, a pair of pocket jacks in a texas hold'em game.

 

not exactly a nut flush or a full house, but a good enough hand (or trading opportunity, as the case was) to produce a positive expected value if played properly over the long haul.

[ForexTraderX 10]

still waiting for 1412 to break.

 

long 1409.25 stop 1408.25 target 1416, if 1412 breaks.

 

reason: trend of the moment is up, and i want to get on board.

 

I'd wait for 1405 at this point, or even 1402.50. 1407 if i was REALLY wanting in, but at this point, i really couldn't say anything other than, I think the closer to 1400 we get, the better a long trade is.

 

it's looking topped out IMO... but, price action does seem to indicate further upward movement particularly with the V bottom "pinbar" we made off the news event

 

I just hate to trade breakouts anyway, much rather buy a deeper dip than a run up.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Oh I don't know... I didn't think it was that bad of a trade (though, I will admit it worked out about as good as it could have)

 

I wasn't saying that the idea was necessarily too bad, although my thought was for a gap close considering the move up that we'd just had - hence why I felt the second trade was better. The fact was that the market was diving on Bernanke and it showed little to no interest at your entry. This is a 250 volume chart of the action before:-

 

 

Now had you bought it after it checked the 1401's, that might have been a different matter. I don't know whether you did or not. If you didn't, imo standing in front of the ES with no regard for pa and when it's moving quickly is not a great idea (unless you're really very confident in the level)

 

Edit: sorry I forgot to mention that when I talk about gaps it's normally RTH close to RTH open. I do look at range gaps too though.

Edited August 31, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[goodoboy 10]

still waiting for 1412 to break.

 

long 1409.25 stop 1408.25 target 1416, if 1412 breaks.

 

reason: trend of the moment is up, and i want to get on board.

 

stopped out -1. no breakout, atleast not now.

[steve46 12]

still waiting for 1412 to break.

 

long 1409.25 stop 1408.25 target 1416, if 1412 breaks.

 

reason: trend of the moment is up, and i want to get on board.

 

I see what you are doing, and I thought I would mention a couple of things

 

First, "trend" depends on both time & price....I use three time frames 10min, 3 min and 1 min

 

Second "trend" is simply when candles or bars move vertically....when you have trend it means markets are out of balance and one side (buyers or sellers) are at least for the moment, in control....in contrast when you see candles or bars moving horizontally, what you see is balance (at least for the moment) between buyers and sellers

 

To determine trend, decide what time frame you want to trade on, then ask yourself what do I see....vertical movement or horizontal movement....if you can't tell, move to the next time frame up or down...if you move up (to the longer time frame) you see direction...if you move down, you see granularity (it gets easier to see horizontal movement)...

 

Your choice of time frame is important...because it determines your entry, stoploss and profit target...the longer your time frame, the "further out" you have to go on each of those elements.

 

From my point of view the best way to go is to look at the big picture...what was price doing prior to your decision....then look at what it is doing now...if the market was trending, and now is just moving in a range...what I would do (if I thought price was going to resume trending) would be to try to get on board toward the low of that range...do you see what I am saying...?

If you think the previous trend is over, you want to wait for a new trend to show itself...then begin the evaluation process all over again...

 

Remember that an intraday basis, the market cycles between trend and range bound, between balance and imbalance...what you want to do is to find a way to "get into" or use that rhythm....

 

Keep it simple.

 

Hope that helps.

[Predictor 11]

Bias is long. Need the order flow to come in and support.

[ForexTraderX 10]

Now had you bought it after it checked the 1401's, that might have been a different matter. I don't know whether you did or not. If you didn't, imo standing in front of the ES with no regard for pa and when it's moving quickly is not a great idea (unless you're really very confident in the level)

 

No, I didn't watch PA before entering at all on this trade... and though I completely agree with you it is in general a good thing to do, I had already considered what he may or may not say within reason (either yes QE, or no QE) - my thoughts were "yes QE" would undoubtedly produce a gravity defying rally, in which case I wanted to get in at all 3 possible bounce points, at 1402.50, again somewhere between 1398.5-1396.5, and then finally right around the low of yesterday (or just below the low)...

 

Now, on the other hand I figured that was quite unlikely given that we've seen a steady stream of improved data from around the world, and most noteably a better than expected NFP the last time it came out, as well as just better data over all from the U.S.

 

with what's going on in europe, and the relative stability the U.S. is seeing compared to other G8 nations in terms of improved recent data, I figured the much more likely outcome was "No QE right now"

 

the only thing is, the past few days from what i've been seeing on various newsfeeds and such, is that most of the informed players were EXPECTING no QE, and yet, the stock market has been moving up, as have other risk markets (namely european currency markets), not to mention german bond yields, other euro zone bond yields, etc... implying that sentiment is driving towards a more positive risk environment regardless of what Ben B has to say about printing presses and money.

 

In conclusion, had there been a QE, i wanted to get in at 3 points, regardless of PA, because of the positive surprise factor, and the intrinsic value that would suddenly exist should QE 3 become a reality...

 

but I also felt that even if no QE announcement, that this would be no surprise, and the overall sentiment trend towards risk on would continue on relatively uninterruped.

 

in other words... I had considered what the world was looking at (to QE or not to QE)... and what the outcomes could be (either yes and how much, or not right now)... and any way I sliced it... I figured a move upwards was more likely given recent moves in other risk markets, and overall macro econ positive data trends. So, for these reasons, I was willing to ignore PA for both of my trades long, because I wanted long no matter what the markets initial reaction to the news was (as long as we didn't shatter yesterdays low of course...then, i would have had 2 or 3 losses, and,...well, thats trading)

 

I just felt a selloff would likely be a knee jerk reaction, and reversed. In fact, this is the biggest reason why I didn't get short around 1409+ earlier, because the rally in the euro and other risk currency markets that occured in spite of friday and impending ben B speaking was a clear sign to me that risk markets were biased to the upside regardless of what bernake would or would not say.... and that's a pretty compelling reason in my book to NOT get short....all technicals aside.

 

P.S. had such a selloff occured without such a news catalyst, I would have held off entering until PA confirmed the market was slowing... since price action without a specific identifiable catalyst, IMO, is much more often a good indicator of the markets "true" intentions, than a strong price move that was caused by a news event... fading news moves can be very profitable...though I know of very very few who profit from fading "completely unexpected yet dramatic market selloffs"

Edited August 31, 2012 by ForexTraderX

[TheNegotiator 13]

Bias is long. Need the order flow to come in and support.

 

I take it that's a no on the order flow confirmation then!

 

I'd say that although it could build up still and break higher later, given that we hardly extended on the IB, through the mid could see a bigger move lower with poss support at 3-4. Pfft, gone already :doh:

[Predictor 11]

Yes.. hit max risk limit. So I'm out for day.. was running about an average loss today. Spain downgraded may be the catalyst for this. DFD...

 

---

I had the impression a lot of big players were positioned short. I think it took them by surprise. I think Bernanke's goal was not to move the market today. I was looking for some range extension in either direction today... attempted the short side early, got stopped out. Then got long.. reduced my loss. Was about 50/50 to call it a day but felt there was a good opportunity to get long again... I was running in front of the order flow expecting it to catch up.

 

I knew it was a higher risk day coming in and was about not to trade it. But my daily risk limits and stops did their job. A bit disappointing but the cost for winning at speculation is sometimes losing.

Edited August 31, 2012 by Predictor

[TheNegotiator 13]

No, I didn't watch PA before entering at all on this trade... and though I completely agree with you it is in general a good thing to do, I had already considered what he may or may not say within reason (either yes QE, or no QE) - my thoughts were "yes QE" would undoubtedly produce a gravity defying rally, in which case I wanted to get in at all 3 possible bounce points, at 1402.50, again somewhere between 1398.5-1396.5, and then finally right around the low of yesterday (or just below the low)...

 

Now, on the other hand I figured that was quite unlikely given that we've seen a steady stream of improved data from around the world, and most noteably a better than expected NFP the last time it came out, as well as just better data over all from the U.S.

 

with what's going on in europe, and the relative stability the U.S. is seeing compared to other G8 nations in terms of improved recent data, I figured the much more likely outcome was "No QE right now"

 

the only thing is, the past few days from what i've been seeing on various newsfeeds and such, is that most of the informed players were EXPECTING no QE, and yet, the stock market has been moving up, as have other risk markets (namely european currency markets), not to mention german bond yields, other euro zone bond yields, etc... implying that sentiment is driving towards a more positive risk environment regardless of what Ben B has to say about printing presses and money.

 

In conclusion, had there been a QE, i wanted to get in at 3 points, regardless of PA, because of the positive surprise factor, and the intrinsic value that would suddenly exist should QE 3 become a reality...

 

but I also felt that even if no QE announcement, that this would be no surprise, and the overall sentiment trend towards risk on would continue on relatively uninterruped.

 

in other words... I had considered what the world was looking at (to QE or not to QE)... and what the outcomes could be (either yes and how much, or not right now)... and any way I sliced it... I figured a move upwards was more likely given recent moves in other risk markets, and overall macro econ positive data trends. So, for these reasons, I was willing to ignore PA for both of my trades long, because I wanted long no matter what the markets initial reaction to the news was (as long as we didn't shatter yesterdays low of course...then, i would have had 2 or 3 losses, and,...well, thats trading)

 

I just felt a selloff would likely be a knee jerk reaction, and reversed. In fact, this is the biggest reason why I didn't get short around 1409+ earlier, because the rally in the euro and other risk currency markets that occured in spite of friday and impending ben B speaking was a clear sign to me that risk markets were biased to the upside regardless of what bernake would or would not say.... and that's a pretty compelling reason in my book to NOT get short....all technicals aside.

 

P.S. had such a selloff occured without such a news catalyst, I would have held off entering until PA confirmed the market was slowing... since price action without a specific identifiable catalyst, IMO, is much more often a good indicator of the markets "true" intentions, than a strong price move that was caused by a news event... fading news moves can be very profitable...though I know of very very few who profit from fading "completely unexpected yet dramatic market selloffs"

 

Your interpretation of what might happen after BB was pretty much what I had. Two points though. 1 - knee jerk reactions can slice through you pretty badly if you're not careful and stop you out before the market realises it's 'wrong'. 2 - given that "informed players" had been expecting no QE right now and that the market was advertising lower prices, there'd likely be some traders licking their lips ready to load up. So why did you buy at 98.25 with a 2 pt target??? It worked, but maximising your profits is just as important as minimising your losses.