Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Here is the premise -- I knew 1200 would be bought but was hoping 99 might be tested.

[TheNegotiator 13]

1205 -- thoughts? ..........

 

What's the 1205 based on? I reckon past the current high we'd be likely to at least test 1206.50 then I have a feeling it'll go to 1213.50 past there.

[joshdance 10]

What's the 1205 based on? I reckon past the current high we'd be likely to at least test 1206.50 then I have a feeling it'll go to 1213.50 past there.

 

I usually set my profit target a little before where I think it will actually go (06.50) to ensure a fill. Aggressive sellers might be shorting 1205 so I wouldn't want to hold out for 1206.50 and get stuck with something less than 1205. Also, I would watch the action and if it decides to break 06.50 strongly, I would move my stop up and see where it goes.

[joshdance 10]

Since we just have a potential double top, they may need to explore lower than 99 for buyers so I will pull the order for now. Perhaps 1195 is a good buy.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I usually set my profit target a little before where I think it will actually go (06.50) to ensure a fill. Aggressive sellers might be shorting 1205 so I wouldn't want to hold out for 1206.50 and get stuck with something less than 1205. Also, I would watch the action and if it decides to break 06.50 strongly, I would move my stop up and see where it goes.

 

Lol on the stop! Good plan. You still in for the 99s though?

[joshdance 10]

Lol on the stop! Good plan. You still in for the 99s though?

 

haha, with moving the stop I meant after it's clearly in profit and safe to move..

 

99s holding here but I think 1202 might be a little tough to get past this time, will see... if that fails, 97 and 94-95 may be candidates for the next logical buy points.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah, I was looking at 99 area b4 but when it attempted on high but didn't make it I felt they were a little close. Could've possibly taken a short around 1202 but I didn't.

[TheNegotiator 13]

That 97.75 high from 21st seems to be useful - also VWAP and low volume.

[TheNegotiator 13]

There was definitely some buying going on there but it just seemed too heavy to push on from there. I think that says something though about the auction.

[joshdance 10]

96.25 yday's high... I like the volume so far, but really need to see 96 tested again

[TheNegotiator 13]

96.25 yday's high... I like the volume so far, but really need to see 96 tested again

 

Yeah that seemed to hold a bit better didn't it? No guarantees it'll hold if it retests tho. Just have to see.

[joshdance 10]

I missed the boat at 98 for a buy when I had a good opportunity (11:24). Overall negative delta over this rise.. would seem to speak to buyer strength.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Lots of chatting fun going on at the moment.

[joshdance 10]

Lots of chatting fun going on at the moment.

 

ah yes, forgot about those guys. Do you actually watch it, or just realize it's on?

[joshdance 10]

bought 98, stop 96.75

[TheNegotiator 13]

ah yes, forgot about those guys. Do you actually watch it, or just realize it's on?

 

If there are lots of people all talking crap about how they'll fail to fix the problems I am aware and do try to judge if the price action is reacting at all. I don't trade off it generally.

[joshdance 10]

bought 98, stop 96.75

 

Stop to 98.25, not going to lose money at this point .. target 1202 or 1205

 

EDIT: out 1200.75 +2.75

 

early I have no doubt, 1206 feels very likely

[TheNegotiator 13]

Could be, but also right now ES is balancing a bit. It's also lunchtime ish. I want to see a break before I decide whether to trade this market any more.

[joshdance 10]

Another triangle just like yesterday... 98 really should hold if we are going up soon

[TheNegotiator 13]

Another triangle just like yesterday... 98 really should hold if we are going up soon

 

That's probably true. I do think there's a decent chance of it testing higher. However, it's moved back into the 18-21 Nov gap and started developing. I think that says we've found some sellers at least for now anyway. I kinda thought we could push on a little more than we have already. But then again it had tested 1206.50(ON high was 06.00) in the European session. So as always we'll have to see!

[joshdance 10]

When you say it's balancing, is your first reason behind that simply looking at price ranging since 10:30 or so, or you see a cluster of volume from 98 to 02 in the profile, or both? Obviously one can draw the same conclusion looking at both, just looking to pick your brain a little.

[TheNegotiator 13]

When you say it's balancing, is your first reason behind that simply looking at price ranging since 10:30 or so, or you see a cluster of volume from 98 to 02 in the profile, or both? Obviously one can draw the same conclusion looking at both, just looking to pick your brain a little.

 

Both. Generally if price is ranging though, profile is also developing(at least to some extent). Highest volume is in the middle. Another tell is that you have your triangle - prices are contracting on both high and low swings, so more is being traded closer to the middle. It can be a very useful thing too as it kind of builds up energy with this sort of action and a break is decent when it does happen.

[joshdance 10]

Well, just took the one trade... thanks for your vote of confidence earlier this morning N, it helped A couple other trade possibilities were there, but not strong enough for me to take.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well, just took the one trade... thanks for your vote of confidence earlier this morning N, it helped A couple other trade possibilities were there, but not strong enough for me to take.

 

Well done buddy. Pleased for you. I know it was just one trade but it went your way and you took money from it. I didn't think it was a wonderful day but then not all of them can be right?

 

Tomorrow is a new day and we start again...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well not really. But this is some proper action they are taking to provide liquidity(Joint multi central bank liquidity plan announced at 8am EST zerohedge article). At least on first glance. We'll see what it really is once the market has fully digested the news.

 

The question a day trader has to ask is "Has value changed". If it has, fading a market is madness pure and simple. Yes prices have moved far away from recent prices, but if there is a good reason then there's also a good chance that they'll go further. We will have to see what markets do over the course of the rest of the day and week. I wouldn't want to see the ES below 1229.75 and at most 22/23. When a market moves like this and doesn't follow through, there'll be an aweful lot of people with positions they need out of. If it does follow through, who knows where it might go(note I am NOT saying ths is where I believe it will go just that it could). 1248.50, 1270.50 could be some nice up side targets.

 

The key as always is to monitor what does happen and adapt to it. If you have a small a/c balance and/or you are unsure of the action, it may be sensible to step back and watch.

 

ADP also came in quite a bit stronger than expected(+206k vs. +130k plus previous rev higher by 20k) and China cut reserve requirement for banks which encouraged markets too.

 

 

Good luck.