Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[Predictor 11]

Long off the 8.50... not a lot evidence.. going to see if anything develops

[bakrob99 11]

I still think the NQ is going to fill.

 

update: 6 ticks on NQ is Close enough for govt work. (me too)

Edited August 27, 2012 by bakrob99

[goodoboy 10]

Did anybody short the open around the 1413-1411 area? If so, why?

 

Nevermind, I should have shorted.

Edited August 27, 2012 by goodoboy

[TheNegotiator 13]

I didn't trade yesterday myself, but it looks like it was okay to trade even if the range was pretty tight. The overnight profile is fairly well balanced (chart is 24hrs so 2nd profile on left chart is o/n) but given yesterday had a poor low and rejected from the balance vpoc (now moved to 13.25 including yesterday rth session), I suspect we might test lower again. The overnight low currently is 1404.25 which is a low volume price on the long-term profile and that could be a decent target to test rth. Still in my thinking is that 1392.00 could need to be tested once more before deciding direction. Overall I'm thinking in the absence of groundbreaking news and with JH just around the corner(31st I think? correct me if I'm wrong please!) are we ready to really break out just yet? We'll see I guess. Consumer confidence and richmond fed man ind are due for release at 10am.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

BB is on Friday apparently:-

 

FRB: What's Next

[Predictor 11]

Any news today? Longs are falling all over themselves to get out of this market... lol.. gotta be fast longs.

 

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but I swear it looks like the LQ providers pulled all the bids for 4-5 ticks off the 8's. I was looking for arbs to take out the 8ish area. No can do. I made out like a bandit.... No think. Just get out.

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Maybe this?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-falls-to-nine-month-low-2012-08-28

 

Now the question is... is this good or bad?

 

I would say bad because most institutions are not looking for the Fed to make any policy changes this week. While it will give them more ammunition.... probably take some time before they act.

Edited August 28, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Bias is long again... stops taken out at 3.25 but held

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Anticipating arbs to step up and buy soon.

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8s likely to get taken out

Edited August 28, 2012 by Predictor

[goodoboy 10]

long 1407, target 1416, need to see overnight high break first. Time to manage this one.

 

Update: +3.25 There was a trend line connecting from yesterday's high, that failed to get above, so I exit at 1410.25.

Edited August 28, 2012 by goodoboy

[Predictor 11]

Goodoboy.. don't mean to sound critical but wouldn't the the high of the overnight range have to "break" for your target to be hit?

 

long 1407, target 1416, need to see HOD overnight break first. Time to manage this one.

[Predictor 11]

My "read" tells me that there are higher levels of institutional selling then average. I believe that institutions are betting that the fed won't take action this week and are reducing long exposure or opening short positions at new highs. At same time, they don't appear to be very aggressive... some participants may be waiting for more information.

[goodoboy 10]

Goodoboy.. don't mean to sound critical but wouldn't the the high of the overnight range have to "break" for your target to be hit?

 

No problem at all Predictor. I corrected it. There was a trendline up there that need to break as well.

[Predictor 11]

Goodoboy... I'm trying to point out that your thinking isn't very clear. So, your hypothesis was that the market needed to make a new high within a given amount of time? Its not surprising that your thinking is unclear because most of what one will study on the market is bunk -- makes no sense. It takes a long time to develop clear thought. It makes me realize if I ever offer training I should charge a boatload for it. ;0

 

No problem at all Predictor. I corrected it. There was a trendline up there that need to break as well.

[Predictor 11]

Several layers of offers just pulled... longs seem to be re positioning here.

[steve46 12]

No problem at all Predictor. I corrected it. There was a trendline up there that need to break as well.

 

Just a quick question GOB...were you trying to buy a pullback off of the trend move up?

 

The time stamps have me a little confused as to what you were thinking

 

Thanks

[Predictor 11]

Short stops being run. Institutions reloading the offer here. Likely go higher but a scalp/pull back is not unlikely. Done for day.

[goodoboy 10]

Just a quick question GOB...were you trying to buy a pullback off of the trend move up?

 

The time stamps have me a little confused as to what you were thinking

 

Thanks

 

 

Yes Steve that's what I was doing.

 

Sure me, let me explain. Keep in mind, I am still newbie so my wording and logical may be simple or don't make sense. Basically, I wait for the market to go either direction and buy/sell on a retrace. Still studying and reading daily.

 

After data came out at 9am central the ES made new lows of the day. My thinking at that moment (near 1403.50 timeframe) was i don't want to be long or short. I don't buy or sell before news.

 

1407 had been an S/R i been watching all morning. I told my self if price action gets back above this level and retraces/hold, I am going long. So that's what I did.

 

Next was the target. There is a trendline I hoping for price action to break. It did, but came back down and consolidated. I exit at 1410.25

[steve46 12]

Your doing just fine bud.....just remember that you have to manage risk first....keep a reasonble stop in place and take profits in a disciplined way...

 

You and I have talked about this before...you have the right idea, and pretty good instincts....just keep on putting one foot in front of the other....

 

If you look over at my thread, you can see that 1407 is an important number, not just for me, but for many folks trained like myself...thats (in my opinion) why when price gets there, it bounces....because a lot of others are waiting for that opportunity to get in....you can see it happened later on as well....that one is still moving north

 

As mentioned before you have to have a concept in place and you have to be willing to monitor all the time and execute as many valid opportunities as you can. If you do, your edge will kick in, and you will have whatever cash flow that provides....

 

Good luck to you

 

Steve

Edited August 28, 2012 by steve46

[goodoboy 10]

Goodoboy... I'm trying to point out that your thinking isn't very clear. So, your hypothesis was that the market needed to make a new high within a given amount of time? Its not surprising that your thinking is unclear because most of what one will study on the market is bunk -- makes no sense. It takes a long time to develop clear thought. It makes me realize if I ever offer training I should charge a boatload for it. ;0

 

No that was not my thinking that market needs to make new high within a certain amount of time. I was trying to say that if price does not break the trendline above, I would go to exit mode. I am studying price action and how to manage my trades.

 

As far as what makes sense and what does not makes sense, I don't know man. I am not expert. Not yet anyway. I like following price action and studying Wycoff for now. Meanwhile, I try to get some practice per day. I think every trader trades with different method. Make no difference to me, all i know is if the market go up or down, i just want to buy/sell on a retrace and manage the trade for now.

 

Trust me when I say, its hard for newbies to comprehend the market. It takes lots of time and effort. And what I am seeing is managing the trade is about 80% of the work.

Edited August 28, 2012 by goodoboy

[goodoboy 10]

Your doing just fine bud.....just remember that you have to manage risk first....keep a reasonble stop in place and take profits in a disciplined way...

 

You and I have talked about this before...you have the right idea, and pretty good instincts....just keep on putting one foot in front of the other....

 

If you look over at my thread, you can see that 1407 is an important number, not just for me, but for many folks trained like myself...thats (in my opinion) why when price gets there, it bounces....because a lot of others are waiting for that opportunity to get in....you can see it happened later on as well....that one is still moving north

 

As mentioned before you have to have a concept in place and you have to be willing to monitor all the time and execute as many valid opportunities as you can. If you do, your edge will kick in, and you will have whatever cash flow that provides....

 

Good luck to you

 

Steve

 

Thanks alot Steve. You always keep it nice and simple. Well appreciated. I am reading your post now.

[goodoboy 10]

long 1410, stop 1408, target 1416

 

stopped out -2pts

[Predictor 11]

My bias is short off the open... going to read tape and see what it says.

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Bias is still short. Some strong buying came in at open. A concern... weighing a slightly higher probability of negative range extension

Edited August 29, 2012 by Predictor

[steve46 12]

Okay so it can go up or down....good to know

 

Here is my entry screen, showing the sequence for today

 

Our "pre-open bias" is based on two things...the first is an analysis of the previous day's action (I will talk about it on my thread) and the next is pending reports (Pending Home Sales and Beige Book)...

 

On the open we tested the previous day's POC at 1408.50 and that (for me) is a pretty high quality initial entry right off the opening move

 

The second entry (two "down" arrows") shows our algo signal...the initial signal comes at approx 6:40....and we take it because it is a preferred time to enter (based on our system)

 

The next is the retest...we call this our "2nd chance" or 2nd entry because if we missed the initial signal, we get this second chance to get on board...(alternatively the trader can "recharge" an existing position if they took partial profit earlier)

 

We call this a "short to long" sequence and it is common for the broader market primarily due to the new driven nature of things these days...It is one of the things I cover when I show folks how to "characterize the market"....

 

and the last occurs just after the release of Pending Home sales..The release showed unexpected strength for sales in the western US...the initial market response takes less than a minute so you have to be ready to act....the doji's show the indecision as participants decide how to respond to the release data...for us it is a fairly high prob entry at the bottom of a node...and now the market bias turns up...

 

Good luck in the markets folks

[Predictor 11]

steve you are back on ignore permanently. I'm one of the only one here actually making real-time calls.

--

 

Notice the banks are stronger. Funds are betting that any Fed action will benefit banks. Funds are shorting techs as hedge or rotating out of that sector.

[steve46 12]

steve you are back on ignore permanently. I'm one of the only one here actually making real-time calls.

--

 

Notice the banks are stronger. Funds are betting that any Fed action will benefit banks. Funds are shorting techs as hedge or rotating out of that sector.

 

The problem tiger is that you have very little of substance to say, so ultimately your "real time" calls are of no value to anyone trying to learn how to do this...

 

"I think its going up, but it might be going down....so I will read the market".....?

[Predictor 11]

Added to my short... my read tells me that banks which are being use as a relative hedge are showing market to be stronger then it really is. Sentiment is negative. Looking for testing lows.