Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[goodoboy 10]

When you entered, the trend was down.

 

Db

 

Thanks Db, I tell you to be honest, this trend thing is slapping me around. I gotta fix this issue.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Thanks Db, I tell you to be honest, this trend thing is slapping me around. I gotta fix this issue.

 

Then just forget about it. If you entered the long when price hit what you thought was support but price couldn't get past 19, you should have exited. A simple supply line would have got you out at the same place. Then you'd be ready to take the short a half-hour later. I suspect you still have too much stuff on your chart.

 

Db

[goodoboy 10]

Then just forget about it. If you entered the long when price hit what you thought was support but price couldn't get past 19, you should have exited. A simple supply line would have got you out at the same place. Then you'd be ready to take the short a half-hour later. I suspect you still have too much stuff on your chart.

 

Db

 

Thanks,

 

Db, would you prefer me post this in the wyckoff-way forum

 

I removed the slow stoch and all the ema lines. The only thing there is pivot points that I follow. While in the trade (@ 1417.50), I did notice that price test and failed to get above (1418.50-1419) four times I counted. However, I remained in the trade and kept the stop loss as planned.

 

In my trade management plan (I am still developing and testing), once I enter the trade I wrote to not adjust stop loss to break even until after price moves 3 pts in my favor and then continue to manage the trade until target is reached. However, I do look for S/R to break to remain interested in the trade. Its just this time i was looking close enough and in the back of my head, I still got this trend is up thing going on.

 

One thing I may need to do is use a lower time frame chart (1 or 3 min) instead of just the 5 min chart while trying manage a trade. Cause now when i look at the price action on the 1 min chart, i do see a minor supply line trending downward in the area where I went long.

[goodoboy 10]

A simple supply line would have got you out at the same place. Then you'd be ready to take the short a half-hour later. I suspect you still have too much stuff on your chart.

 

Db

 

After scaling price action down to 1 min chart, I know see the supply line trending down, which should have been hint to move to exit the trade and price can not break this line. And as you say, enter short once 1417 (what I thought was support) is broken.

 

Thanks

[DbPhoenix 42]

It's up to you where you post it. This isn't my thread so it's not up to me. If you're trying to learn how to trade by price, however, that might be a better venue. Consider, though, that if you're trying to learn how to trade by price, you're going to have to give up most of what you depend on: the pivot points, the color-coding, the trendlines, and anything else you're using as an indicator. That might be too much for you, or it may be too soon.

 

As for the supply line, it starts at 92.

 

Db

 

Edit: This is what I'm talking about. The supply (or demand) line is a tool to be used by the trader to track the balances between supply and demand. There's nothing rigid about it. It can also serve as a trendline under some circumstances, but that's not its function. It asks whether or not the balance is changing and, if so, where and how. It's then up to the trader to decide whether or not he needs to do anything about it and, if so, what.

 

 

Edited August 21, 2012 by DbPhoenix
Add Chart

[goodoboy 10]

It's up to you where you post it. This isn't my thread so it's not up to me. If you're trying to learn how to trade by price, however, that might be a better venue. Consider, though, that if you're trying to learn how to trade by price, you're going to have to give up most of what you depend on: the pivot points, the color-coding, the trendlines, and anything else you're using as an indicator. That might be too much for you, or it may be too soon.

 

As for the supply line, it starts at 92.

 

Db

 

Edit: This is what I'm talking about. The supply (or demand) line is a tool to be used by the trader to track the balances between supply and demand. There's nothing rigid about it. It can also serve as a trendline under some circumstances, but that's not its function. It asks whether or not the balance is changing and, if so, where and how. It's then up to the trader to decide whether or not he needs to do anything about it and, if so, what.

 

 

 

Thanks Db,

What charting platform are using? I use forexpro.com during the day to monitor charting? Looks like you using the same. How do you get those different color trendlines?

[goodoboy 10]

It's up to you where you post it. This isn't my thread so it's not up to me. If you're trying to learn how to trade by price, however, that might be a better venue. Consider, though, that if you're trying to learn how to trade by price, you're going to have to give up most of what you depend on: the pivot points, the color-coding, the trendlines, and anything else you're using as an indicator. That might be too much for you, or it may be too soon.

 

As for the supply line, it starts at 92.

 

Db

 

Edit: This is what I'm talking about. The supply (or demand) line is a tool to be used by the trader to track the balances between supply and demand. There's nothing rigid about it. It can also serve as a trendline under some circumstances, but that's not its function. It asks whether or not the balance is changing and, if so, where and how. It's then up to the trader to decide whether or not he needs to do anything about it and, if so, what.

 

 

 

Thanks Db,

 

I am still reading the Wycoff Forum, recording in my journal day by day, and building a trade management for myself. As for trade by price action only, I leaning toward this method as I like the idea of staring at one chart and making my decision from this chart. I think this style fits me better and my personality. So far, the indicators (rsi, slow stoch) is gone. The pivot points, , that may be a little tuff. Price action is attracted to this area for some reason, so that means buyers and sellers do business here right?

[TheNegotiator 13]

 

Too bad we don't have a chat room anymore.

 

Db

 

Will find out whether it would be easy to implement a new one.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Thanks Db,

What charting platform are using? I use forexpro.com during the day to monitor charting? Looks like you using the same. How do you get those different color trendlines?

 

Yes, I do. I use PaintShopPro to modify the image. You can probably use Windows Paint as well.

 

Db

[TheNegotiator 13]

I mentioned somewhere in the thread that I use greenshot as a nice free capture/editor tool as an alternative to snagit. Just makes it a little quicker and easier to post images imho. There are a few things which could be better like there's no curve tool but there is freehand for example. But they are working on it all the time and they have a suggestions forum.

[DbPhoenix 42]

So far, the indicators (rsi, slow stoch) is gone. The pivot points, , that may be a little tuff. Price action is attracted to this area for some reason, so that means buyers and sellers do business here right?

 

Buyers and sellers do business in a variety of places. The challenge is to find those places. The further challenge is to determine the likelihood that they will do business in those places again. That's largely what auction market theory is all about.

 

Indicators can appear to do things that they don't really do. This goes for pivot points as well as MAs, Fib, Bollinger Bands, and all the dozens of others. We want them to work for a variety of reasons, so we look for occurrences in which they do, more or less, then find ways to excuse those occurrences in which they don't. For the trader, this usually leads to a situation in which he never really fails, but he never really succeeds, either, at least to the point where he can make any real money.

 

If one doesn't know how to locate the S&R that exist in the chart, he will naturally be drawn to something that locates them -- or appears to locate them -- for him. Once he performs the calculations. But the fact that he has to perform the calculations is the tipoff that he's applying an indicator, and that begins to separate him from the price action. If you've been clocking in a series of winning trades using pivot points, there's no reason to stop using them. Trading price action is not the ultimate goal of every trader. It's not a state of grace. But if pivot points aren't doing it for you, I suggest you move on. Ditto with the candles and the color-coding.

A fundamental misunderstanding of how "indicators" are calculated and what they're supposed to do can lead to all sorts of off-task behavior. We think we see the indicators indicating something, or not, and believe we have made an important discovery. We then devote our efforts to improving the hit rate and the probability of whatever it is we think the indicator is indicating when our efforts ought to be focused on determining whether or not the indicator is actually indicating what we think it's indicating. In most if not all cases, it isn't.

 

Consider the virgin being tossed into the volcano: sometimes it results in a great crop, sometimes it doesn't. Maybe tossing her in earlier or later will change the probability of a healthy crop. Maybe two virgins are better than one. Maybe six. Maybe tall virgins are more effective than short ones. And surely age is important. But does the robustness of the crop really have anything to do with tossing the virgin into the volcano in the first place?

 

The money under the pillow is not evidence of the existence of the tooth fairy, and spring will arrive regardless of whether the virgin is tossed into the volcano or not. (Db)

[tupapa 10]

Short 2467, 1st target 2463, lets see if 2462 holds this time...

 

OUT BE

 

Stoxx

 

12:20 Range between 65-62, maybe springboard... Long at 2464, SAR if we break 62

Edited August 22, 2012 by tupapa

[DbPhoenix 42]

Will find out whether it would be easy to implement a new one.

 

Perhaps not. I know James was having issues with it before he left, but it was still here afterward. But then I'm sure the software has improved over the years. So has the internet infrastructure.

 

Db

[bakrob99 11]

Price action is attracted to this area for some reason, so that means buyers and sellers do business here right?

 

Do yourself a favour. Take a chart - any timeframe and without looking at the price action, randomly draw some horizontal trendlines on it. (It's best if you can make the price invisible - then turn it back on again)

 

Now study how many times prices respect these trendlines.

 

When I have done this - it has revealed that we see random lines act as support and resistance frequently. So keeping this in mind - are you very certain that the reaction at "pivots" is better than random. If so, how do you know? Is your belief based on fact or gut feel?

Edited August 22, 2012 by bakrob99

[DbPhoenix 42]

Do yourself a favour. Take a chart - any timeframe and without looking at the price action, randomly draw some horizontal trendlines on it. (It's best if you can make the price invisible - then turn it back on again)

 

Now study how many times prices respect these trendlines.

 

When I have done this - it has revealed that we random lines act as support and resistance frequently. So kkeeping this in mind - are you very certain that the reaction at "pivots" is better than random. If so, how do you know? Is your belief based on fact or gut feel?

 

This post and chart are only one example of many:

 

Bear with me I am brand new at this, but I've read everything I can get my hands on regarding the Wyckoff method.... I am at the stage where I'm Sim trading NQ. Here is the NQ 1 minute chart for Oct. 27th. I did abysmally trying to trade this and would appreciate some feedback as to what were really valid entries in foresight for a newbie.

 

*snip*

 

This is the most difficult area for me, i.e. determing when a true trend reversal is under way.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Looking at yesterday for clues, it's important to recognise that broadly speaking we're still in an uptrend, whatever happens today. That doesn't mean "go long". Far from it. But it does mean that the market could still make higher highs than we've already seen yesterday RTH if we drop lower.

 

Anyway, so first looking at what happened yesterday. We checked, drove up, didn't follow through, failed at support and trended lower for pretty much the remainder of the day, finally moving a relatively decent 4.75pts up from the prior balance high support:-

 

 

Does that constitute rejection? I don't believe so. But it could test higher first before turning south again or it could want to sell right off the bat. That'll be a clue either way as to the conviction of any move lower. What I'm certainly going to be looking for as a test of strength, is the level of support at 1400.00/1399.50 (balance vpoc). Also, looking at the last move lower of the proportions we saw yesterday, we have to look back to 8/2. This actually was just prior to a further move up. However, it should be noted that it was in different circumstances. Yesterday we saw a test to make new recent highs and a failure to follow through, followed by strong selling pressure as opposed to 8/2 which saw a gap lower and attempt to close followed by selling and what turned out to be a failed test lower to 1350 area. Anyway, we'll have to see. :missy:

 

Edited August 22, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Noticed my IRT did not properly update after installing 10.6.5 this morning - back to 10.6.4!

 

 

Doesn't change much if any of what I said.

[goodoboy 10]

short 1409, stop at 1411, target 1402, need to see 1405.50 break

 

Reason: supply line making higher lows

 

Failed attempt to break overnight lows. Brokekeven on trade. Need to run errand now.

Edited August 22, 2012 by goodoboy

[DbPhoenix 42]

This is a good example of what I was trying to say earlier. For the intraday trader, the interday trend is not necessarily pertinent. Here, the trend is clearly down, until we reach support. At that level, what matters is not the trend but what traders do at that level: does it hold or not? But entering a trade until the direction is resolved is a high-risk choice.

 

 

Edit: I should also point out that we've been in a TR between 7 and 11 since last nite. Taking a trade until price exits from one side or the other may not be the wisest choice.

Edited August 22, 2012 by DbPhoenix

[tupapa 10]

Short NQ 277175

 

Target bottom range

[goodoboy 10]

Buyers and sellers do business in a variety of places. The challenge is to find those places. The further challenge is to determine the likelihood that they will do business in those places again. That's largely what auction market theory is all about.

 

Indicators can appear to do things that they don't really do. This goes for pivot points as well as MAs, Fib, Bollinger Bands, and all the dozens of others. We want them to work for a variety of reasons, so we look for occurrences in which they do, more or less, then find ways to excuse those occurrences in which they don't. For the trader, this usually leads to a situation in which he never really fails, but he never really succeeds, either, at least to the point where he can make any real money.

 

If one doesn't know how to locate the S&R that exist in the chart, he will naturally be drawn to something that locates them -- or appears to locate them -- for him. Once he performs the calculations. But the fact that he has to perform the calculations is the tipoff that he's applying an indicator, and that begins to separate him from the price action. If you've been clocking in a series of winning trades using pivot points, there's no reason to stop using them. Trading price action is not the ultimate goal of every trader. It's not a state of grace. But if pivot points aren't doing it for you, I suggest you move on. Ditto with the candles and the color-coding.

A fundamental misunderstanding of how "indicators" are calculated and what they're supposed to do can lead to all sorts of off-task behavior. We think we see the indicators indicating something, or not, and believe we have made an important discovery. We then devote our efforts to improving the hit rate and the probability of whatever it is we think the indicator is indicating when our efforts ought to be focused on determining whether or not the indicator is actually indicating what we think it's indicating. In most if not all cases, it isn't.

 

Consider the virgin being tossed into the volcano: sometimes it results in a great crop, sometimes it doesn't. Maybe tossing her in earlier or later will change the probability of a healthy crop. Maybe two virgins are better than one. Maybe six. Maybe tall virgins are more effective than short ones. And surely age is important. But does the robustness of the crop really have anything to do with tossing the virgin into the volcano in the first place?

 

The money under the pillow is not evidence of the existence of the tooth fairy, and spring will arrive regardless of whether the virgin is tossed into the volcano or not. (Db)

 

Thank you DB for the well put comments. Your comments makes sense. I believe I started a bit the wrong way without a well-round understanding how the markets move. I mean, I knew the move based on buyers or sellers, but the thought process behind when and where to buy was a bit mislead. I really don't understand the indicators I use to work with. Just knew some other guy/gal said they use it. However, I been devoting (when I am not working) time to how price is moving and what makes it moves.

 

for example, dismorning pre-market I just watched the price action since market close yesterday. Instantly, I noticed price action making higher lows two times. I drew a supply line and thought to myself "wow sellers are having a hard time finding buyers" and buyers are not interested unless price comes back to overnight support (1407ish). Instantly, I knew I needed to be short once this supply line is tested and fails again. I entered short....

I was pretty impressed with myself!

 

The next phase is trade management, a whole different ball game.

[goodoboy 10]

If so, how do you know? Is your belief based on fact or gut feel?

 

Thanks,

 

Good exercise and good point.I don't know, I just see price stall at the pivots and some other guy I watching for about 3 months use all this indicator and pivots stuff and shapes and patterns, etc.

 

Does all this works for me? NO, I was still losing. Even when I followed one of those gurus. Turns out, this guy was moving stop loss around to avoid loss, averaging down, yelling out how this particularly trade is high high risk so don't follow if you don't have years and years of experience. And the super special indicators that tells him when to enter. It was far too much for a new person, I thought to myself there is no way on earth I can trade confidently with this approach. My first impression of trading ES was, "why can't i just buy and sell off of S/R"? Why I have to look at the rsi, slow stoch, macd, draw lines on the rsi, slow stoch, macd? But, i kept at it that way. It didnt work. Plus trade management, i had no clue. LOL.

 

So does it work, maybe so, but I just think it only complicates things. Atleast is it doesn't for me. I think for the new person, its important to just remove all those indicators and start fresh with as Db suggest, price action. And lots of experience and some TL of course.

[bakrob99 11]

Still in a downtrend even after taking into account this bounce yesterday. I am expecting a few more lows to be tested and watching 1402 area to see if support comes in.

 

We have been nicely one time framing on the 30M chart and I will watch to see if this continues and will continue to hold shorts until the 30m stop OTF.

 

By the way, when it is behaving like this the 30M VPOC is solid support.

 

It is marked on the attached chart by the orange color.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

The ES traded pretty well yesterday. It was all about the Fed though. Make no mistake, the Fed minutes suggesting members leaning towards easing moved us up and this morning, comments contrary to those minutes from Fed's Bullard moved us down. I'm expecting some sort of probe lower. However, I also suspect that the market will require some sort of clarification before committing one way or the other.

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims won't help bulls either.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Sometimes it's in the price action. Just before the break lower, I saw a little 'jump' higher as it was trying to push down. Call it what you will, but if that was a genuine strong buyer stepping in, they would've likely been able to take it higher than 1407.75. A break below the highlighted trendline and vpoc (was 06.25) cemented the view in my mind that we were heading lower.

 

Edit: forgot to mention that was also where the overnight low was @07.50