Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think we're going considerably lower. I'd like to see 1392 get tested and if we get thru the support in that zone we've got 1378.75 zone for later in the day.

 

I am still keeping in mind the historical observation that the market often puts in a low on the Thurs or Friday before OEX week, then rallies into it.

 

So you think this is the calm before the storm then?

 

Summer Doldrums or Calm Before the Storm?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Mr Negotiator,

 

Can you tell me when you decide to change your Composite charts - order under what conditions. The last set of CLVN's and CHVN's are starting to make me keep track of them again. My own work generating these profiles using my own developed indicator had mixed results but the values on your recent charts have been very indicative of inflection points that actually work.

 

I understand that you use IRT to generate these babies. Does the program do so automatically?

 

(As an aside I once did a demo of IRT but didn't like the user interface - I may have to revisit it.)

 

I actually prefer to steer away from long term levels when they are well into the low volume zones on the far extremes. I look at the areas but give the lines less weighting -they are auto generated by irt. I could do them myself and perhaps I should as some might not see them in the same way as I do. The other question is whether or not to change the start date of the chart to improve definition. That depends for me on whether or not I have reasonable other levels already to look for and how far back the additional data goes. The data needed here is back from '07 and so I'm less keen on it although will extend it I think if we close today above 1400.

[bakrob99 11]

So you think this is the calm before the storm then?

 

I think that the volatility is about as low as it gets. And the $ticks 20 day average of Highs and Lows show that extreme $ticks are now at +969 and -889

 

That is very low.

 

As well, there has been a lot of accumulated trades occur this past week at these highs - so a pullback "might" be in store. And the targets I spoke about are not very large in scope.

 

My trading won't really change except to the extent that if and when I get in a short I"ll be trying to hold it longer and if and when I get long I'll be having a tighter target.

Edited August 10, 2012 by bakrob99

[Lisyara 10]

As expected it went down a bit took profit at 1394.25, wanted to manage it a bit longer -- patience is my weakest link.

[Lisyara 10]

I dont know may be my question should not be asked here, but I placed two posts - I dont see them, does anyone see my work here?

[Lisyara 10]

Not to criticise too much so i'll only point out one thing. Your target is 2 ticks below yesterday's rth low and 1 tick below the overnight vpoc. Frequently, we see this of pattern where s/r breaks, price reverses back through, then same s/r holds on the retest (kind of h/s pattern although I don't like naming things as such).

 

====

 

yes, but 1-2 ticks violation doesnt count, plus I am in the same mood as bakrob99 - we should be going down some 40-50 points (1 point = 4 ticks) so may be staying longer would have paid better, but patience is a problem.. That's why my second favorite instrument CL..

[bakrob99 11]

1392 got hit as expected and a nice bounce. Possible gap or half gap fill in play.

[Lisyara 10]

1392 gently tested for bakrob

[DbPhoenix 42]

With regard to the chart posted yesterday afternoon, note that price dropped thru support at 2300, tried and failed to rally back above at 0400, tested support (now resistance) at 0900, making 95 a nice entry for a short.

 

Db

 

 

 

Edited August 10, 2012 by DbPhoenix
Wrong time zone

[Lisyara 10]

touched 1398 :missy:

 

so far little desire to jump in in any direction

[bakrob99 11]

1392 gently tested for bakrob

 

Long from PVP 1393.50 after Delta turned positive .. out 1/2 at 1397.75 and hanging in for possible gap.. The 1392 test fond no sellers at all and this market is rangebound which means to me .. trade responsively (and responsibly).

 

Update 10:33 EDT Stop now at 1395.75. Rallying to target possibly.

 

Update: 10:45 EDT Tightened stop to 97.25 Either up or out.

Edited August 10, 2012 by bakrob99

[TheNegotiator 13]

Long from PVP 1393.50 after Delta turned positive .. out 1/2 at 1397.75 and hanging in for possible gap.. The 1392 test fond no sellers at all and this market is rangebound which means to me .. trade responsively (and responsibly).

 

Even though we're hardly trading a massive range, the actual way it's trading is okay so long as you're sticking to a solid plan. Like you said Rob, no sellers into 92's (and the retest delta was a little clue there) followed by a building up for the reversal. Was personally looking for a test of the balance vpoc @99.25 and it's as good as done that for me so I'm out. If we can maintain above 95.50, probably a decent chance of a gap close (if not this time around). Could also be a one/two move type day with the rest of the morning and early afternoon dead until possibly a move into close. You never know though.

[Lisyara 10]

Long from PVP 1393.50 after Delta turned positive .. out 1/2 at 1397.75 and hanging in for possible gap.. The 1392 test fond no sellers at all and this market is rangebound which means to me .. trade responsively (and responsibly).

 

Update 10:33 EDT Stop now at 1395.75. Rallying to target possibly.

 

============

 

Am I right that you basically expected a reversal from 1392ish judging by the fact that price simply didnt go further down? Sorry for asking, trying to figure out how could I have noticed that for myself, as your prediction nicely materialised.

[bakrob99 11]

...Could also be a one/two move type day with the rest of the morning and early afternoon dead until possibly a move into close. You never know though.

 

 

I won't be trading late today on a summer Friday afternoon. A scalp short off the open and a nice long confirmed off the bottom and I have more than made my daily goal. Most of this week it's been good early on and then chop... so just take the few good trades before 1030 and get on with your day.

 

Thanks for you posts and charts. I find them useful.

[DbPhoenix 42]

An update for those who are interested. As previously posted, price tested 96 from above and below, making 95 a good short at 0900 (the supply/demand lines are left as they were yesterday evening).

 

 

At that point, price tests the next lower levels of support at 94 and 92, finding buyers at 93 and 92, but more devoted buyers at 92.

 

The midpoint of all this is 99-1400.

 

Db

[TheNegotiator 13]

No worries Rob, glad they are useful . Okay, so I did a brief explanation on a chart of what I was seeing. Btw, I'd think if the 98's IBH can't be held above we'll be looking at mid/open again.

 

[Lisyara 10]

My 5 min chart just shoewed nice 37550 contracts red bar touching 1394.25.. My VPOC is 94.50, nice 4 point ride

:crap:

 

someone among big guys is playing by the narrow market rule today

[bakrob99 11]

============

 

Am I right that you basically expected a reversal from 1392ish judging by the fact that price simply didnt go further down? Sorry for asking, trying to figure out how could I have noticed that for myself, as your prediction nicely materialised.

 

 

Trading respoinsively involves evaluating the market at its extremes and determining the likelihood of it reverting back to prices which have been determined by the market to be fair. The 1392 was a prior low and I expected a reaction. My target was a gap fill up above and when the 1392 bounced I was waiting for a shift towards the buyers to get long.

 

AT 11:10 there was a similar shift to upside momentum.

 

I exited before my target because I had a SHORT signal at 1398.25 which I didn't take because I was still long - I should have just reversed but that is not something I do often.

[Predictor 11]

Today my bias is to go against the order flow to establish some short positions. This is a bit more risky and will need to see development to downside or pull out.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Again, for those who are interested...

 

These are the shorts and longs mentioned earlier. using the same supply/demand lines and S&R lines. Entries are made inside the retracements.

 

 

As for now, we've made a lower high at R (the midpoint) again and broken the current demand line. Therefore, another short bet 97 and 98 is appropriate. If price doesn't break its current supply line, the trade should be good down to 95-94.

 

Db

[Predictor 11]

A bit late... noticed the LP's pulled out just before another buy program. I've detected what they may be detecting now but not interested to share it just yet.. need to see if they use to init new shorts or if encourages buying... bias is still to downside but need to remain flexible.. some signs that some inst. are buying.

[goodoboy 10]

Again, for those who are interested...

 

These are the shorts and longs mentioned earlier. using the same supply/demand lines and S&R lines. Entries are made inside the retracements.

 

 

As for now, we've made a lower high at R (the midpoint) again and broken the current demand line. Therefore, another short bet 97 and 98 is appropriate. If price doesn't break its current supply line, the trade should be good down to 95-94.

 

Db

 

Thanks Db for the analysis. I got all your charts and links for more reading later on.

 

I been out of market action today due to some errand to tend to. Today, I see was a good day for learning.

[DbPhoenix 42]

I been out of market action today due to some errand to tend to. Today, I see was a good day for learning.

 

Particularly that having a bias toward one side or another for whatever reason isn't nearly as important as knowing how to trade what's in front of you. And, of course, doing it.

 

Db

[DbPhoenix 42]

And speaking of resistance...

 

[joshdance 10]

====

 

yes, but 1-2 ticks violation doesnt count, plus I am in the same mood as bakrob99 - we should be going down some 40-50 points (1 point = 4 ticks) so may be staying longer would have paid better, but patience is a problem.. That's why my second favorite instrument CL..

 

40-50 handles down?? Sure it could happen, but no objective reason for this certainly. Quite a few others thought this as well, hence the trap at the open to help add a little fuel to the fire. Shorts did not have a good day this week, so it's logical to assume that they are due and given the overnight market activity, many were easily fooled.