Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[steve46 12]

Yes, you are right...however I can't say much about that...one of the reasons I can still post here (without burning my bridges with my old employers) is because I don't comment about bonds or currencies, which were my big part of my job...and yes its called the "bond wiggle"...

 

all the more reason to take the trade....

[goodoboy 10]

Yes, I am still in. I move stop to 1384.75 as the 1385 has showed some support. so far 1388 has held nicely. I'm thinking I may as well ride this up as much as I can.

 

As for me, I had to leave out and couldn't monitor price actions or react to it. So I moved the stop to 1384.75 and was stopped out. The breakout pass 1390 did not happen when I was gone. Atleast now I know for Monday 1385 is an area to watch where buyers and sellers want to do business.

[bakrob99 11]

...At least now I know for Monday 1385 is an area to watch where buyers and sellers want to do business.

 

It's an area that the market will tend to return to and "test". Rather than initiate a trade there - consider taking the trade from above or below back to it. That is the "gist" of responsive selling as I understand it.

[joshdance 10]

Steve, I may have asked you this before but I don't recall.

 

Is there any reason that you look at the DAX, instead of the Stoxx 50 or 600? The dax is much like the DJIA in the types of companies and also in traded volume: the mini dow traded 109K on Friday, the DAX traded 173K. Meanwhile, the euro stoxx 50 traded 1.5M, and the ES traded 1.9M. So, have you looked at these other indices which are more similar to ES in behavior and traded volume?

[joshdance 10]

So in summary.....last hour signal....unsuccessful probe up to find buyers.....entry right after that (red arrow)....manage the trade down a couple of points...

 

As a supporting factor, the volume picks up (granted not a whole lot) at 3pm as shown here. I got filled on a few lots at 89.25, looking for that retest of 85. Could have gone either way, but given the time of day, and the fact that there is just nothing going on from noon to 3pm here, it's a reasonable short--inability to penetrate higher, must auction lower for demand, and 85 was a good target of earlier demand.

[goodoboy 10]

It's an area that the market will tend to return to and "test". Rather than initiate a trade there - consider taking the trade from above or below back to it. That is the "gist" of responsive selling as I understand it.

 

Thank you and good point to move forward to.

[steve46 12]

Steve, I may have asked you this before but I don't recall.

 

Is there any reason that you look at the DAX, instead of the Stoxx 50 or 600? The dax is much like the DJIA in the types of companies and also in traded volume: the mini dow traded 109K on Friday, the DAX traded 173K. Meanwhile, the euro stoxx 50 traded 1.5M, and the ES traded 1.9M. So, have you looked at these other indices which are more similar to ES in behavior and traded volume?

 

Sorry to be late in replying....yours is a smart question...one that I have asked myself more than a couple of times...things have changed since I started using the DAX...used to be that the DAX "ruled" but now I have to agree that the EuroStoxx is the bigger dog (significantly more volume)...I am in process of changing from DAX to Stoxx

[goodoboy 10]

the green arrow shows what I call a "probe" up to find buyers...I like to see this because when it is unsuccessful, it means that an entry in the other direction (in this case a short) is more likely to be good for a few points.

 

 

Edit....I was taught to be an observer of human behavior....because that behavior, especially the habitual stuff that we do without thinking can be used to our advantage when trading...as an example....it is friday...and when I first started working in the business I used to be the guy who (every friday) called the car service for my bosses....who as chance has it wanted to go home "early". so they would put on a last trade at or near the top of the hour....they would close it out about a half hour later and leave the office.....remembering this I always like to take this "last hour" trade......

 

Thank you Steve, I always learn from your analysis and everyone on this forum.

 

The opposite happened right between 12:30 and 12:45 with the spinning top indicating no more sellers. I hope I understand that that correctly?

[bakrob99 11]

Mr Negotiator - could you start us off this week with one of your excellent composite profile charts?

 

Thanks!

[Predictor 11]

Market looks like it is ready go higher here.I still think he could get a large sell off given the general conditions but no evidence yet -- that could be in days or even weeks.

 

--

There is more selling at these highs but strong bid so far. Need to move higher pretty quickly..

 

---

 

Futures institutional traders or lq providers often don't trade in-line with equities bots... equities bots are getting exhausted here. It may be the LQ providers also use strong market orders to drive market.

 

Some bots detected liquidity at 94.25 and executed against each other.

 

In my view equities are probably the biggest driver of futures markets... 3 types of drivers, institutions (buy low/sell high), lq providers (fade narrow range), and equities bots (typically buy high/sell higher). The EQ bot activity rapidly change from moment to moment.

 

--

 

Market very likely to break out here.. eq sell bot activity was exhausted by institutions. In this case I think it may have been the LQ providers trying to clear their short inventory... difficult to say...

Edited August 6, 2012 by Predictor

[bakrob99 11]

Sittting on hands right now after a very nice (for a Monday) morning set of long side trades setups mostly in NQ. NQ has been much stronger and is giving better rmovement recently for my favoured setups.

 

30M ES was strongly negative since about 10:30 EDT and a short at 94.75 was my setup which I didn't take as I was still long biased..

[goodoboy 10]

I didn't take a trade at the open at 1391 after waiting for it. I took the order off after a drop at open. So, I missed about 4pts on that and didnt follow my method.

 

So far looks like consolidation and currently price action is holding 50% (at 1392.50) retracement of the morning pop.

[Predictor 11]

My bias has shifted to neutral. The longs seems to be having some problems.

[MightyMouse 12]

Not trading es, but the range seems excruciatingly, painfully small. They should change the tick size to pennies instead of quarters.

[joshdance 10]

I am painfully boringly long from 11am. Scaled at the high, and did not add on the retest of 93.25. Just waiting now... I expect an extension of the range to the upside, hard to bet on a 6 handle range though it could certainly happen.

 

A further probe lower would be very characteristic and I may buy that as well, but will be flat first to have a more objective look at things.

[Predictor 11]

I think we are more likely to roll over here... I've hit profit target and the volatility is too low to warrant for me to go short... we might reverse in the 90-91 range.

 

course.. could be wrong.. I was biased long earlier but most of the equity bots have gone quite now. Institutions have been leaning short at the highs at all day.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Predictor

[joshdance 10]

I think we are more likely to roll over here... I've hit profit target and the volatility is too low to warrant for me to go short... we might reverse in the 90-91 range.

 

course.. could be wrong.. I was biased long earlier but most of the equity bots have gone quite now. Institutions have been leaning short at the highs at all day.

 

Anything can happen of course, but cash has come within 50 cents twice of touching 1400... maybe it won't, but it's so tempting.

[Predictor 11]

EQ bots have started selling...

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HFTs flooding offer.. not good for marking moving higher

Edited August 6, 2012 by Predictor

[joshdance 10]

Who will win the battle of the bots?? I don't know, but it's like casino royale if initiating a position right now. Longs are positioned, shorts are positioned, and probably not much interesting will really happen, but risk has been managed and mitigated for me today and now I can only get lucky and win, or unlucky and not lose.

 

Keeping things simple, we have a series of higher lows, and a 95.75 that is begging to be broken by 1 tick. I am betting on that.

[joshdance 10]

Shorts win, and I don't get my pop... testing the LOD, quite a drop here.

[Predictor 11]

Worth a read..

 

Anchoring - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[goodoboy 10]

Long 1395.25, stop 1392.50. Target 1400

 

Reason for trade: still in uptrend and broke out of yesterday tight range and R1 pivot is support for now. Closely monitored and will exit if opening bell momentum is weak and no break through 1397.50.

[goodoboy 10]

Long 1395.25, stop 1392.50. Target 1400

 

Reason for trade: still in uptrend and broke out of yesterday tight range and R1 pivot is support for now. Closely monitored and will exit if opening bell momentum is weak and no break through 1397.50.

 

Exit at 1397.75. as price action did not make it to r2, so i better take some profits.

[bakrob99 11]

Exit at 1397.75. as price action did not make it to r2, so i better take some profits.

 

You mean give up some profits, right ?

 

Let me ask you a question.... DO you get any smarter when you have a position on than when you are out of the market? I don't.

[goodoboy 10]

You mean give up some profits, right ?

 

Let me ask you a question.... DO you get any smarter when you have a position on than when you are out of the market? I don't.

 

I don't understand your question. Can you explain?