Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Josh, I think you may have some potential.

 

Thank you!!!!!

 

:yes sir:

 

:hmmmm:

[Predictor 11]

Josh, I think you are taking things the wrong way. I only meant to convey that we trade the same instrument and may have similar ways of trading. I don't know know for sure though because I don't really know what you do. However, some of your posts have been some of the of the highest value (on the 5 point or 4 point scale I talked about).

 

Anyway, as I said I'm busy for next few months... now, of course, everyone can continue on not liking me and trying to align themselves on the competitive axis.

 

Best of luck,

[bakrob99 11]

...I even have a Tradestation script that allows me to import my discretionary trades and then optimize them within Tradestation. This allows me to see what "would have worked best". The computer using the same entries that I took with a larger stop had almost a straight-line equity curve. I plan to do some imports of my recent trades and evaluate....

 

I would be very interested in that script. I didn't know that could be done.

 

Care to share it?

[goodoboy 10]

The overnight market can be a good indicator, but the market can be up overnight, followed by selling during much of the day session. In other words, use the context of the market, and its current behavior in that context.

 

Ironically, the EMA is probably your best determinant of trend there, but a 50EMA on a 60 minute chart is not going to give you an intraday trend direction. It's too long of a time frame, with too slow of an EMA. Maybe for a multi-day swing position, but not for day trading. Either use a shorter time frame, or a smaller EMA, or better yet, don't use one at all.

 

Thank you Josh,

 

Thats exactly what happen dismorning. Overnight was had good momemtum upwards, but the at open bell sellers took price down. After missing my entry long 1377 after employment numbers came out, I stayed still and was waiting for a break out, and back test, but that never happens, but sellers took it down. So I just sat still all day.

 

Context matters!!

 

Thanks for the point on the EMA on the 60 min. That's what I am working on some way to determine intra-day trend. I am scaling down the the 5 and 15 min chart to determine what I am looking for.

[goodoboy 10]

Yes Josh, "you may have some potential"......

 

Goodoboy....this little note may help (hope so)....I like to use a 30 min chart to get a better idea of what the big players are doing...what I do that might help you is this

 

1. the left most red arrow is placed at what I think is an area of interest. I call it an area of interest because just to the left of that you can see the previous candles and the wicks sticking up and down, suggesting that both buyers and sellers were trying to operate there...

 

Also you can see that eventually the sellers won, and they took the market down (look at the wide range red candles that follow as price trends.

 

and, when price tries to retrace back up it creates a lower high....with more wide range down candles...this tells me that this was a strong move

 

2 As price comes up to that area again...the next red arrow shows where some folks thought they would get in ahead of the open (that next arrow is positioned above a candle at 6am, a full half hour before the bell)

 

These are folks who (generally) are a little bit ahead of the crowd...so what you get from that analysis is ONE opinion based on the premise that certain folks (who might know a bit more than the rest of us) think that this market was headed south...

 

The right most red arrow shows the retracement prior to the FOMC announcement as some folks try to move it back up, but they cannot...again it forms a lower high....

 

I'll leave the rest to your judgement.

 

Good luck

 

Thank you kindly for the analysis. Makes alot of good sense just watching this price action once I sit down and analyze. Josh was right, intra-day trend is not just black and white.

 

The sellers jumped in yesterday before the bell, but what surprise me was when I woke up to see buyers was back above the 1376 area!

[goodoboy 10]

 

Goodoboy....this little note may help (hope so)....I like to use a 30 min chart to get a better idea of what the big players are doing...what I do that might help you is this

 

Thanks,

 

What I like to do is start with the daily chart technical analysis, the move to 1 hour chart analysis, and last 15 min.

I been using 15 min chart for mainly technical analysis for intraday trading. But this week I started using the 5 min chart to fine tune my entry and exit points.

 

Do you use the 30 min chart for analysis of the bigger picture only?

[joshdance 10]

Josh, I think you are taking things the wrong way. I only meant to convey that we trade the same instrument and may have similar ways of trading. I don't know know for sure though because I don't really know what you do. However, some of your posts have been some of the of the highest value (on the 5 point or 4 point scale I talked about).

 

Anyway, as I said I'm busy for next few months... now, of course, everyone can continue on not liking me and trying to align themselves on the competitive axis.

 

Best of luck,

 

I don't dislike you at all. But it sounds like a phrase that is usually said from a superior to an inferior. Then in the same paragraph you suggest collaboration but then immediately say 'but I'm busy right now so maybe later.' It sounds like an invitation, and before I even respond with my opinion about whether collaboration is even a good idea, you let me know that you're too busy right now. It's just kind of strange, that's all.

 

It's not very easy to get me upset. Steve got me kind of upset once, but I got over it pretty quickly and we are practically best pals now I understand that you are not coming from where I think most people would assume you are when you say "you have potential." It's all good, consider it a non-issue, as long as we are clear.

[Predictor 11]

bakrob, originally I mentioned the code was available on my blog for a fee (as an after thought after developing it). However, because of your interest, I will write an article up and share it here for free. It may take a few weeks for me to complete this though as I've some other projects going on and need to clean the code up and may expand it. I appreciate your patience and look forward to sharing this.

 

Josh, well it can be difficult to communicate well over the internet and easy to misread communication. I only meant to suggest that it sounded like our styles might be similar and therefore collaboration could be a possibility. However, I don't know enough to know. Like you, I don't have any idea how this collaboration would take place. When I said "you have potential", I really meant "I think we might potential to work together". As for being busy, that much is true, and I am busy for the next few months. I usually have at least a few things I'm working on at any one time.

[bakrob99 11]

bakrob, originally I mentioned the code was available on my blog for a fee (as an after thought after developing it). However, because of your interest, I will write an article up and share it here for free. ...

 

That's great to hear. NO rush. When you have a minute I will look forward to automated analysis of my discretionary trades. Thanks.

[goodoboy 10]

Draghi speaks again!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Draghi speaks again!

 

Indeed!!

 

Here's a chart for reference:-

 

[goodoboy 10]

short 1360, target 1352

 

but I exit at 1358, because 1357 did not hold. Will consider another short. I got in a bit too late on this one. Need a deeper retracement.

[joshdance 10]

short 1360, target 1352

 

but I exit at 1358, because 1357 did not hold. Will consider another short. I got in a bit too late on this one. Need a deeper retracement.

 

Too late, and too early. Consider the behavior of the market since the open, and the initial quick test and jump off the lows. Has it been telling you to sell? One of the hardest things I have had to learn is to avoid the euphoria. The other hardest thing learned from much pain has been to avoid jumping on the train after the train lost momentum. Big news events like this make 9 out of 10 new traders want to sell, and for good reason. So, everyone wants to short, and where do you think the newbies load up on shorts? 60. So what happens? They get punished. Consider the long since the open. Great opportunity that I took a few minutes ago. Attached is chart that I posted real time elsewhere but posting it here for a location reference. Volume supported at 10am, and a shakeout to VWAP supported as well. I was a little off in my entry but still not bad.

 

And now that 69 has been touched, and everyone is convinced it's going to be long all day long, be careful about buying. Maybe it's still a good buy, but pissed off shorts are wishing they had bought, and will start jumping on. Dangerous area to buy, better area to sell--but that's just based on the location.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Yeah, that's very important to be aware of. Getting a good price at a good time is potentially very important anyway. Trend traders usually wait for pullbacks so even they will want the 'best' price they can get if they believe the market is going to continue in their direction. Big news events do often retrace to the "scene of crime" if there is nothing groundbreaking to price into the market. NFP's often see this kind of reversal too.

 

Personally goodoboy, although others might disagree (and there's always more than one way to go about your business, so I'm not suggesting they'd be wrong so to speak) I would question your logic for trading before RTH open. For a new guy, I'd suggest not even trading the first 5-10 minutes (and on some days 30-60 mins). The open provides a reaction of the underlying stocks to any change in price and allows you to identify the level and type of activity of bigger players early on. It provides some structure to play off for the rest of the day too.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Btw, it's useful to point out where structure is form from. Today is quite obvious. The current high is the 50% of the move down post ECB release.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Careful !

[goodoboy 10]

Thanks Josh, I respond to your comments in a few minutes

 

long 1365.25 on a retrace at the. out 1368.25.

[joshdance 10]

Took this rather potentially risky short, and it popped so fast I just close dit at the vwap at 64. Good location, good timing, minimal risk. Attached is supporting chart with the zone highlighted I was waiting for, and resulting trade entry.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Took this rather potentially risky short, and it popped so fast I just close dit at the vwap at 64. Good location, good timing, minimal risk. Attached is supporting chart with the zone highlighted I was waiting for, and resulting trade entry.

 

Nice short mate !

[goodoboy 10]

Today was tuff day to trade.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Today was tuff day to trade.

 

Actually it was pretty easy, but you have to relearn how to tell up from down. You won't be able to do that until you clear the decks.

 

Db

[TheNegotiator 13]

Today was tuff day to trade.

 

Perhaps, perhaps not. To start with there are aspects which are very similar to most days. It gapped lower on RTH open, tested the overnight low, then tried to close the gap. It failed twice at the 50% of the ECB move and the low of the last 30mins from yesterday and then turned. Then some news about spain came out and we plummeted pretty damn quickly. The day has not even finished yet. What days like today do is make good money for those with a set plan and who know what they are looking at and it runs over those who don't really know and need time to decide what to do- or are just motivated into trading against their plan because those fruit machine lights are flashing.

[joshdance 10]

Nice short mate !

 

I will fess up and admit my mistake: it sneaked up on me so fast that I closed prematurely. I knew Monti was about to speak. I suppose this goes against my "caught up in the euphoria" advice This is an easy stop trail down, and could have easily gotten double what I took. But, I was only in 1/2 on this and usually when that is the case, I will elect to close sooner rather than later. At any rate, room for improvement as always...

[goodoboy 10]

 

Personally goodoboy, although others might disagree (and there's always more than one way to go about your business, so I'm not suggesting they'd be wrong so to speak) I would question your logic for trading before RTH open. For a new guy, I'd suggest not even trading the first 5-10 minutes (and on some days 30-60 mins). The open provides a reaction of the underlying stocks to any change in price and allows you to identify the level and type of activity of bigger players early on. It provides some structure to play off for the rest of the day too.

 

Thank you TheNegotiator for your advice and comments. I can use all the advice I can get, so I want get offended.

 

Trading before the open is something I struggle with a bit. A few weeks ago I decided to just wait from 8am central to begin. But if I see a setup I like, then its hard to not take it, even if its before the bell.

 

Can you explain a bit about this statment "The open provides a reaction of the underlying stocks to any change in price and allows you to identify the level and type of activity of bigger players early on. It provides some structure to play off for the rest of the day too"

 

Are you saying to let the big players make there move first? Like today at open bell, I was thinking much lower, but it was just the opposite. lol, well i guess now, it is just the opposite.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I will fess up and admit my mistake: it sneaked up on me so fast that I closed prematurely. I knew Monti was about to speak. I suppose this goes against my "caught up in the euphoria" advice This is an easy stop trail down, and could have easily gotten double what I took. But, I was only in 1/2 on this and usually when that is the case, I will elect to close sooner rather than later. At any rate, room for improvement as always...

 

Yeah I did wonder. It's important as I'm sure you realise but perhaps others are less aware, that maximizing profit when you have a great trade on is pretty important. It's too easy to not want to lose what you 'have' already. This is exactly that experiment about the saving the human race. Group 1 given choice of definitely saving half the human race with vaccination A or the chance of saving everyone or nobody with B. Group 2 had choice of definitely half not surviving or 50:50 chance of everybody or nobody making it. Group 1 choose A, group 2 choose B. Nuts but very similar to how we react naturally to winning or losing trades.

 

Anyway, I'll fess up too. I saw that move down pretty hard and tried to hit it again. Got a pretty terrible price of just below low vol at 65 and nearly closed that part off. Sometimes when the market moves like that though, it could be about to really dump like mad (algos/hfts going haywire was my 'hope') lol. The reversals can be very nasty on moves like that which fail, so you have to be very careful if it doesn't follow through. Figured it was worth a roll of the dice and it paid some but not what I'd hoped. Out now around open. I know we're lower now but sometimes that's just the way the cookie crumbles. But that's not the way I'd normally choose to trade.