Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[bakrob99 11]

... 1332 was a support from yesterday and the other day when Ben was talking. ...

 

You realize that from the opening bell, actually even a bit before, it has been a swift move DOWN. The trend is DOWN. DO you often take counter trend trades?

 

Have you considered looking for trend trades on days like today?

 

I am wondering - because it is much easier to trade on the short side today. And more profitable.

[bakrob99 11]

Thank you ,

 

Can you please comment what type of chart this is when you get some free time or reference?

 

Thanks,

 

That is a Market Profile chart showing composite levels for the period(s) calculated, usually the last swing we've been trading.

 

The important points of reference are the HIGH volume nodes (referred to as CHVN) and the LOW volume nodes (CLVN)

 

High volume means the market has accepted that as a fair price at some point and it is likely that price will return back to that area either on a retest of it or if it is moving towards it. This is choppy area that the market will chop around

 

Low volume means rejection (fewer trades occured there) so the market thinks these areas are unfair and will reject price if it retraces there. (Bounce or have it go right through).

 

Both of these areas can be viewed under certain conditions as reasonable targets. And once there, watch to see if price is rejected or accepted before placing a trade entry.

[goodoboy 10]

You realize that from the opening bell, actually even a bit before, it has been a swift move DOWN. The trend is DOWN. DO you often take counter trend trades?

 

Have you considered looking for trend trades on days like today?

 

I am wondering - because it is much easier to trade on the short side today. And more profitable.

 

No, I don't normally counter trend trade. And its a silly thing for me to do especially, since the trend is down for today. Its something I written in my journal, but I broke the rule anyway after I missed my short after I buy area of 1340 did not hold and broke. Instead of me going short with a target of 1332, I hesitated to pull the trigger at the 1340 area and go short. So since i missed that trade.Reason I miss that trade, cause I still struggle a bit at determining when a support level is actually broken and when to take a short.

 

Yes, you right alot more profitable to go with the trend of the day. Lesson Learned!!

[goodoboy 10]

A = 9:27 High 1346.50

B= 10:50 Low 1334.75

C = 11:26 High 1339.75

 

Take A-B = 1346.50-1334.75 = 11.75 pts

 

C 1339.75 - 11.75 = 1328.00

 

BTW, I don't do all that stupid math - I just draw the first move down and copy-paste and place on the high of the upswing and mark the D-target. If the "C" high gets taken out, I move the line to the next high and the target shifts.

 

Yes, I got that measure move as will of 1328. It was the measured move from the bear flag, but same thing as you calculated. Lesson learned and noted

[bakrob99 11]

Yes, I got that measure move as will of 1328. It was the measured move from the bear flag, but same thing as you calculated. Lesson learned and noted

 

You saw a bear with a flag up there? :haha:

 

Oh .. count the waves. Wave 1 down , slight pullback wave 2 to the D target (wave 3), slight pullback wave 4 and now we're in Wave 5 down.

 

Below us is the next CLVN at 1320.75 which also has other support there, which Mr Negotiator kindly showed us in his chart.

[goodoboy 10]

You mean one like this?

 

 

Anyone can answer this question about the market profile if he/she likes?

 

1. Does the purple, orange and red areas indicate volume over from May to Aug?

 

2. Whats does each color (red, green) illustrate on the price? I am thinking red means less buyers and green more buyers.

 

Just trying to understand. Thanks

[bakrob99 11]

The red horizontal lines are low volume nodes, green high volume.

 

You can see for the high volume that the composite profile on the right has longer lines than for the lower volume nodes

 

This chart / indicator keeps track of how many contracts are traded at each price and then, in comparison to the entire composite's volume, calculates the length of the horizontal line required to reflect that volume

 

Consider that at one price there may be 100000000 contracts traded and at other prices much less than that. What does that imply?

 

It is an auction process. It tells you that the market thinks that price with the highest volume represents fair value. Price will tend to stay there until acted upon by an outside source. ie news

 

You can study market profile theory by going to the cboe website and downloading the free course

[goodoboy 10]

The red horizontal lines are low volume nodes, green high volume.

 

You can see for the high volume that the composite profile on the right has longer lines than for the lower volume nodes

 

This chart / indicator keeps track of how many contracts are traded at each price and then, in comparison to the entire composite's volume, calculates the length of the horizontal line required to reflect that volume

 

Consider that at one price there may be 100000000 contracts traded and at other prices much less than that. What does that imply?

 

It is an auction process. It tells you that the market thinks that price with the highest volume represents fair value. Price will tend to stay there until acted upon by an outside source. ie news

 

You can study market profile theory by going to the cboe website and downloading the free course

 

Thank you bakrob99,

 

Your advice and comments are simple and makes sense. Helps for a newbie learning and practicing on my own. Any good books/artilces you can advice on market profile or just understanding the future market as a whole.

[goodoboy 10]

You saw a bear with a flag up there? :haha: .

 

HAHAH, thats what I saw, of course after the market close I see this. Got it now.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thank you ,

 

Can you please comment what type of chart this is when you get some free time or reference?

 

Thanks,

 

In the interests of accuracy, the chart is simply a bar chart. Lol. BUT it has various volume profiles (not market profiles) attached to it. First of all it's important to note that this is a back-adjusted chart meaning that all trades on previous contract expiries are adjusted by their roll premium. It does make sense to do this and more importantly it does work. The second point is that the chart is regular trading hours (RTH) only. This is 09:30-16:15 EST. This is when the most volume is done because the NYSE is open and the last 15mins is the follow through of that activity. You could add in overnight volume if you wanted to but it's not enough to drastically change things in most cases. If you particularly need to look at overnight due to europe, you can look at the overnight profile separately without making a long term profile. You can do anything you want in fairness, just make sure you have appropriate reasons for looking at what you are looking at.

 

Anyone can answer this question about the market profile if he/she likes?

 

1. Does the purple, orange and red areas indicate volume over from May to Aug?

 

2. Whats does each color (red, green) illustrate on the price? I am thinking red means less buyers and green more buyers.

 

Just trying to understand. Thanks

 

The big orange profile accounts for all the volume traded since the beginning of the chart. My start date at the moment is 3/6/9. This is the beginning of the entire move up. I.e. the March '09 low. I could have used a different date but I want to see how the move is changing. The red and the blue profile are manual balance profiles. They are attempting to show volume distribution for when the markets are showing a degree of balance. Sometimes, it's more obvious where to draw these than other times. But generally, I try to weight near-term volume more than long-term volume. So they are useful in revealing this too. If the profiles line up that is even better, but if they don't it also says something about the intention of the market.

 

The green and red lines are high and low volume peaks as drawn by the charting platform (linnsoft IRT). They are auto peaks but you can adjust the sensitivity. It's probably just laziness, but I added them to give you reference on the price scale. These lines can be added for any profile. Lastly if you see a different colour on a specific price, they are the highest volume (VPOC) and value area (VA= ~70% of all volume traded in profile) prices. Don't worry too much about the VA in these profiles. I probably should turn them off. They can be useful in a more normal distribution. The VPOC is useful though. Keep an eye on it and how price often reacts there.

 

Hope that helps and if there's anything else, just ask.

[TheNegotiator 13]

You can study market profile theory by going to the cboe website and downloading the free course

 

There's a great deal of info out there on MP/VP but I don't believe it's all useful. The basics of what you need to know are:-

 

Auctions/day types; opening types; balance/imbalance; high/low volume; confidence/conviction; quality of extremes.

 

Just a few there but the principles are important and if you know them and apply them well they're more than enough to make a great living on imho.

[bakrob99 11]

You can get Dalton's books at the library (or Amazon). Mind over Markets and Markets In Profile (start with this).

 

Even if you don't use Market Profile Theory to base your trading decisions on, it is critical to having an understanding of market behaviour.

 

There's a lot on the web such as http://www.cisco-futures.com/auction_market_value_theory.html

 

My reference above mentioned CBOE it's actually CBOT which holds the copyright.

 

Notice that the market traded down overnight to within 1 tick of the CLVN that I referred to yesterday. A lot of what current market profile trading involves today is to look at composite profiles and to infer that price may revisit certain areas based upon the formation of the profile at those areas.

Edited July 25, 2012 by bakrob99

[goodoboy 10]

Thank you everyone is on this forum for the advice, support, and reference materials.

 

As you know I been trading the es for about 5 months now. I trade some simulated and live for awhile and currently trading live. My success so far is under average, but could be better. Learning as I go daily with technical analysis, market behavior, risk and money management.

Risk and money management I have improved lot since first beginning, so that's a positive, still working on it daily.

 

Give your advice or comments on what I am thinking to do to make sure I am right track. You all have more experience then me so I ask you:

 

1. Continue what I am doing now: learning, look for trades daily and sticking to what I am doing now. I think I am doing fine, just don't take

 

2. Stop/Start looking for one of these websites that has a defined method/training to trade futures. There are lots mentoring and live trading box website out there. I don't know if they work or not,so I want comment.

 

3. I am a member of one website with a live broadcasting that trades futures/stock and post live trades for members (fee is very small). I like the website as it has helped me alot with technical analysis and risk management. I will not mention the site name here (private message me for details) cause I respect the owners of the site as they have helped me alot. However, I don't feel comfortable just taking his trades and following like that. His method is pure technical analysis based. He offer mentoring at fee, but I decided to hold off on that option for now until I discover what works for me. Nothing bad about the guy, I just don't like all his requirements for coaching.

 

4. Find my own trading strategy what works for me and stop searching for others online and continue on with step 1.

 

Thank you all.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Clearly we want another crack at the 40.25 area today, judging by overnight action. Although this might be better suited to the bigger picture discussion thread, I'll mention it here for now. These levels are important right now either way, but what strikes me about action over the last couple of months is that we just don't have enough of a reason to trade either way with any conviction right now. European fixes seem to be crawling along at snail pace, qe3 is still at the 'will they, won't they' stage, elections are not too far off and frankly, I think that quite a few market movers will have gone on holiday. The fact is though, markets are moving and therefore testing good levels frequently = good for day traders.

 

Anyway, here's an non-annotated chart for all those interested:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thank you everyone is on this forum for the advice, support, and reference materials.

 

As you know I been trading the es for about 5 months now. I trade some simulated and live for awhile and currently trading live. My success so far is under average, but could be better. Learning as I go daily with technical analysis, market behavior, risk and money management.

Risk and money management I have improved lot since first beginning, so that's a positive, still working on it daily.

 

Give your advice or comments on what I am thinking to do to make sure I am right track. You all have more experience then me so I ask you:

 

1. Continue what I am doing now: learning, look for trades daily and sticking to what I am doing now. I think I am doing fine, just don't take

 

2. Stop/Start looking for one of these websites that has a defined method/training to trade futures. There are lots mentoring and live trading box website out there. I don't know if they work or not,so I want comment.

 

3. I am a member of one website with a live broadcasting that trades futures/stock and post live trades for members (fee is very small). I like the website as it has helped me alot with technical analysis and risk management. I will not mention the site name here (private message me for details) cause I respect the owners of the site as they have helped me alot. However, I don't feel comfortable just taking his trades and following like that. His method is pure technical analysis based. He offer mentoring at fee, but I decided to hold off on that option for now until I discover what works for me. Nothing bad about the guy, I just don't like all his requirements for coaching.

 

4. Find my own trading strategy what works for me and stop searching for others online and continue on with step 1.

 

Thank you all.

 

That's a big load of complicated questions for what we actually know about you!! You need to start a new thread and answer some questions for us if we're to give you some good advice.

[bakrob99 11]

Give your advice or comments on what I am thinking to do to make sure I am right track. You all have more experience then me so I ask you.

 

All I can tell you is that I wasted 4-5 years going to different rooms, trying different styles and trading other people's ideas. Finally - after watching and trading for a long long time, it started to make sense. I have 3 setups plus I'll take trade when I know what is happening and not worry about a "setup".

 

I think if I had not spent so much time in rooms etc I might have shortened the path. On the other hand, maybe that was necessary for me to get it?

 

No one can tell you what will be your path to success. The only person to do that is you.

 

If you can last - you'll do okay. It takes an incredible amount of persistence.

 

If I had to do it again - I would trade much longer on SIMULATOR until I developed a real feel for my setup and had a record of success in different markets. Then I would transition to live with strict money management rules and stop trading the moment (if) I broke them and go back to sim as a penalty. Trade the smallest size possible and build your account slowly and add a contract after you make 2x the margin. Also - take 1/3 or 1/2 of your gains out of your account EVERY week to get a paycheck. Treat it like a business/job and it becomes more real.

 

SIM can save you money. When I started it wasn't available.

[bakrob99 11]

Clearly we want another crack at the 40.25 area today... Anyway, here's an non-annotated chart for all those interested

 

From the CLVN 1320.75 overnight low to the higher one at 1340.25. Excellent targets. Keep posting these. They're making me money.

 

Notice how the Upper Median Line Parallel is exactly at the 40.25 area. Had this on my chart for 3 hours.

 

[Predictor 11]

I'm long. Today is looking to setup to be a possible big day to upside. I'm looking at 40.25 being taken out right now with my target somewhere above that. I think a retest of yesterday high may also be in play.

 

Some aggressive selling off the 40ish area... not surprising on first push. I'm looking for a second push but ready to adapt.

Edited July 25, 2012 by Predictor

[Predictor 11]

Selling extremely one sided all the way from 40... I had hit my profit target but was pretty confident we were going higher. I'm in the red now and may be stopped out shortly. I've given this trade a bit more rope then usual....

 

 

Buying one sided from the 1333. I notice most buying/selling in ES is one sided.

 

I exited at market.. A larger then usual loss. It seemed everything was in play for a great trade but this market is a challenging one. I just pushed it too far. This is a rather bearish market shaping up.

 

Long again. Still see some possibility.... even if low

Edited July 25, 2012 by Predictor

[TheNegotiator 13]

This looked to me like your 'basing' type pattern. Although I would say that despite turning from just above the 30.25 level, I would have thought the proximity of yesterday's close and vpoc would have pulled the market down just a tad more.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Plus the vwap held on a retest and didn't even manage to test the mid-point... but we'll have to see.

[Predictor 11]

Stop out. I am moving closer to my daily loss limit. So I am shutting down. Most of my trades had good FA today but I just wasn't fast enough in taking the profits. I may take a break for the next several weeks, I'm working on some projects that's requiring a lot of my energy.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Stop out. I am moving closer to my daily loss limit. So I am shutting down. Most of my trades had good FA today but I just wasn't fast enough in taking the profits. I may take a break for the next several weeks, I'm working on some projects that's requiring a lot of my energy.

 

Lot's of other stuff going on and trading focus don't tend to mix well! Hope you carry on posting regardless though.

[goodoboy 10]

From the CLVN 1320.75 overnight low to the higher one at 1340.25. Excellent targets.

 

Good trade. I have a question. I notice price action stopped around this CLVN 1340.25 area. Why would seller/buyers be interested in selling at this area, if its a low volume area. Is this resistance? Maybe a bit confused cause it did stop there.

 

Thanks

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good trade. I have a question. I notice price action stopped around this CLVN 1340.25 area. Why would seller/buyers be interested in selling at this area, if its a low volume area. Is this resistance? Maybe a bit confused cause it did stop there.

 

Thanks

 

Okay, ask yourself this. What does high volume mean and what does low volume mean?

 

Still trying lower. Just not enough buying interest to kick off and move up. Clearly it showed that the reversal was possible though.