Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[Predictor 11]

Right now..sorry can't share. I'm offering at 73.75.. not enough evidence to go market short.

 

Adjust to 73.50. Filled.. will monitor.. probably take scalp

 

What are they in your opinion? Also, are you talking about right now or over the last few days?

Edited July 19, 2012 by Predictor

[bakrob99 11]

see some indications the market may be topping...

 

not yet

 

NOW. .

Edited July 19, 2012 by bakrob99

[Predictor 11]

Take profit... I don't like to push my short trades when market is bullish.. I tend to lose money late day.. make money morning. market may run lower

[Predictor 11]

We may run to new highs shortly... be careful the short

[Predictor 11]

Long here.. last trade of day

[bakrob99 11]

Long here.. last trade of day

 

I thought you said it was "topping"? FWIW, I am looking for 1366 .

 

We just had a 5-wave up move to the upper median line and the measured move D-target. Everybody already got long that wanted to. We need to do some selling to get more guys interested in buying.

 

Range bound low volume day rotational day.

[Predictor 11]

Stopped out.. reversed too soon.. I'm watching very short term indicators.. looking for about 3 points per move. Done for day.. started to lose but still net profitable.

[Predictor 11]

Exactly.. that's what my original thought was -- range bound day. I got over confident. Payed the price. But still keep some loot.

 

I thought you said it was "topping"? FWIW, I am looking for 1366 .

 

We just had a 5-wave up move to the upper median line and the measured move D-target. Everybody already got long that wanted to. We need to do some selling to get more guys interested in buying.

 

Range bound low volume day rotational day.

[bakrob99 11]

Here is my 5wave I drew (see above when I said NOW) and completion to CD-Target

 

Start of expected price action:

 

 

3rd wave completes as expected. Hit on the basis of Time and Price.

 

 

 

Wave 4 just completed on schedule

 

Edited July 19, 2012 by bakrob99

[Predictor 11]

Long again... indication market may go up. Target 73.50ish HOD but may change quickly

[joshdance 10]

Nice short Predictor. I also offered 73.75 but no fill on the touch, so I hit 73 instead and am flat now at 68 -- after catching the market near the low but failing to add and capitalize on most of the move up, I am very appreciative that the market rotated back down to the 67.

 

Just to be clear, the premise was:

 

1) The move down off highs to 71 saw very little real buying interest (volume)

2) The tape showed no real urgency for buyers at the 73s.

3) 73s are 50% from 76 to 71

4) 73.75 is the morning (pre-news) high

5) Risk is quantified here; stop was at 74.50, 4 ticks. The push from 74 to 76 was excess (to use MP-speak), and a move above 74 would have invalidated the excess, and a revisit of 75 or 76 at least was in order. Hard to not take this trade when the risk is 4 ticks, and the targets are 12 and 20 ticks.

 

(screen shot is before the final target was reached)

[Predictor 11]

Take profit... I'm out. These aren't trade recommendations... I'm just sharing what I'm doing. Its pretty hard actually... This day is pretty hard day. I've exceeded my profit target and I've shut down. I was 1 slim line from losing that last trade... I always track where I get stopped out though and watch to see the evidence... often re-entering can help offset the stop out loss..

 

Someone ask what I use... I use correlation analysis and order flow. I try to drive with order flow and lean with trend.. i.e I don't like to take heat against trend.

Edited July 19, 2012 by Predictor

[goodoboy 10]

 

The move down off highs to 71 saw very little real buying interest (volume)

 

What do you use to define the buying interest (voulme)? Do you just just use the Volume indicator?

 

I think volume and determine buying/selling at certain areas i want to buy/sell at is where i struggle.

 

Thanks,

[Predictor 11]

Bulls struggling here.... Glad I'm out of this market. It looks like a potential short from 70.50 isn't that bad... we might pin at 70.50 low risk. Offering at 70.50 for scalp only.

 

Stopped out. had an opportunity to take a scalp profit but pushed it too far. Buy side book was heavy. I'm thinking we may close near 70.50. I'm slightly below my profit target due to this stop out but still retain most of my profits.

Edited July 19, 2012 by Predictor

[bakrob99 11]

Still expecting 5th wave down. Smack dab in the middle of the volume and market likes it here.

 

Mostly seeing evidence of buying.

 

Large SELL PGM and more to come.

 

This is not a good place to make a trade (IMO).

[Predictor 11]

I don't see a lot of opportunity. If we were to trade below 69.50 then we might run back to lows. My experiment was to take what I felt might be lower risk option.. as I feel we might pin near 70.50... and now we are back but I didn't give the trade enough room because I rightly wasn't confident. There hasn't been much FA from 70.50 shorts. Currently they are trapped or have cleared..

 

..both sides fighting it out now

[joshdance 10]

This is not a good place to make a trade (IMO).

 

I will drink to that.

 

Today the action was beautiful-- sell 75s, buy 67s, stay out of the middle (for the most part).

 

Trading near the open, symmetric profile, flat VWAP--nah, don't feel like playing the lottery in the middle here.

[Predictor 11]

Buying 67s was best trade of day.. I'd like to say I took it. I seen it and then it was gone. Oil rallied 3% today...

[joshdance 10]

What do you use to define the buying interest (voulme)? Do you just just use the Volume indicator?

 

Objectively, yes, just standard volume (per time). But as you see in my post, this was just one component of the trade. The others played just as important a role in the decision to sell. And it's not like it was guaranteed to work--it's just what was most likely, in my opinion, to happen, and it did this time; but next time, it might not. Most important was that risk was quantified.

 

The trigger for me was simply that I did not see aggressive buying on the tape and DOM. There is no magic; just ask the question, "Are buyers hungry here, and willing to pay up? Or, might the market need to entice them by offering them a lower price?"

 

It's that simple, I think. I can tell you are looking for the right tools to use, and that is important. But don't put the focus too much out there, because your success will come from within, not from something you can put on your chart.

 

I think volume and determine buying/selling at certain areas i want to buy/sell at is where i struggle.

 

If you read back over this thread you will find numerous times where I posted many live trade calls; some of them were great, and other times you can read the anger and frustration in my text. Many times I have wanted to pick up my computer and throw it out the window. Some measure of struggle is the only path to success in this game, I think. We have all struggled and everyone does at some time or another, just stay in the game and manage your risk. And listen to TheNegotiator, he knows what he is talking about.

[goodoboy 10]

GOOG 3:30PM, MSFT 4:30 PM

 

Earnings could cause ES to get a run-up provided they beat, and then setup a nice short for over night. IMO

[bakrob99 11]

Might be wave 5 starting down now. If it is , it would have to take out the 67.50 low.

 

Maybe yes maybe no.... got the 1st 4 ok but this 5th was not helpful. Was finished trading for the day anyway as it was in the middle

 

Don't diddle in the middle according to Jack.

[joshdance 10]

To quote Ronin, this is a "low risk buy" at 71 here IMO... took it and looking for a bounce to 75 towards the close, if I'm lucky, if GOOG will comply Risking 4 for 16, good odds.

 

EDIT: closed for a 2 tick loss, more fun than blackjack and cheaper

[goodoboy 10]

Objectively, yes, just standard volume (per time). But as you see in my post, this was just one component of the trade. The others played just as important a role in the decision to sell. And it's not like it was guaranteed to work--it's just what was most likely, in my opinion, to happen, and it did this time; but next time, it might not. Most important was that risk was quantified.

 

The trigger for me was simply that I did not see aggressive buying on the tape and DOM. There is no magic; just ask the question, "Are buyers hungry here, and willing to pay up? Or, might the market need to entice them by offering them a lower price?"

 

It's that simple, I think. I can tell you are looking for the right tools to use, and that is important. But don't put the focus too much out there, because your success will come from within, not from something you can put on your chart.

 

 

 

If you read back over this thread you will find numerous times where I posted many live trade calls; some of them were great, and other times you can read the anger and frustration in my text. Many times I have wanted to pick up my computer and throw it out the window. Some measure of struggle is the only path to success in this game, I think. We have all struggled and everyone does at some time or another, just stay in the game and manage your risk. And listen to TheNegotiator, he knows what he is talking about.

 

Thank you and what you wrote makes sense. After reading here and learning on my own and hitting my head against the wall, taking purely dumb trades (and losses), I am realizing that whats important is my evidence for the trade and how to manage my risk. There is no holy grail, all that I don't believe. Knowing the market context, my evidence for the trades, and my managed risk is whats important. Once I line up my evidence for the trade setup and I have 4-5 reasons to buy/sell and the reward outweighs the risk, I confidently pull trigger, what happens next, i have no control! Whats next for me is continue to work hard to horn my skill of finding evidence to support trade. And most important, keep it simple.

 

Thanks,

[joshdance 10]

Once I line up my evidence for the trade setup and I have 4-5 reasons to buy/sell

 

It all sounds good, except that you really don't need 4-5 reasons. You just need one reason. If you have more than one reason, that can strengthen your conviction, and that may be even better. Often for the best trades though, you will have more than one reason to enter. But there's really no reason to require yourself to find 4 or 5--we can come up with all kinds of reasons to enter a trade but all that matters is whether our decision is in tune with the future direction of the market.

 

For me personally, all I need is some kind of indication from the market of its intention. I don't need a location, although that certainly is preferable. People talk about "key levels" but the only level that is "key" is the one the market responds to. As I have gotten to know ES better, the areas I watch are often the areas that the market responds to, but sometimes it's not. No reason to pass on a good trade because you happen to have guessed wrong about where the market will react.

 

And you're right about keeping it simple--you don't need fancy software, indicators, or any of that, but if that's your thing go for it too. It didn't take anything fancy to see why 1375 was important today, and to then act based on that information... looking into convoluted methodologies for answers is often an excuse that we subconsciously come up with to convince ourselves that it can't be as easy as it is, and it conveniently shifts the focus from us to the external, which is useful to our egos when we are struggling. That being said, I think there is something that can be learned from many different types of market methodologies, even ones that you don't specifically use.

[Predictor 11]

+ Agree. I find most of my profits come from the morning session when volatility+direction get in alignment. However, I will add that often the price will reverse at my levels at the very tick and when it doesn't.. usually comes back.

 

 

For me personally, all I need is some kind of indication from the market of its intention. I don't need a location, although that certainly is preferable. People talk about "key levels" but the only level that is "key" is the one the market responds to. As I have gotten to know ES better, the areas I watch are often the areas that the market responds to, but sometimes it's not. No reason to pass on a good trade because you happen to have guessed wrong about where the market will react.