Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

If there is any kind of reversal here, I'd suspect we'd test ~30.25 at least. No certainties of course...

[TheNegotiator 13]

VWAP is also ~24.00 which is a source of resistance too.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Could always be a bear flag too - although a failed flag can be explosive in the opposite direction and there's still 20.75 as support.

[bakrob99 11]

Tough so far .... selling is persistent but buyers are present = C H o P p Y

 

I expect a strong rally .. but waiting patiently for evidence of it. In the meantime - out of my short and watching.

[TheNegotiator 13]

The reaction so far at th 20.75 is not as hoped. The absolute exit point if it wants to test below would probably be a breach of ~19.25. That's not to say we're not building a base to reverse from. Trade what you see.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Really just continuing the overnight trend down so far today:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

We are at least currently showing some signs of wanting to push higher by taking the mid/overnight low out.

[TheNegotiator 13]

ES is coming up against that down trendline now...

[bakrob99 11]

I have been using median lines to help with exit targets but they are also useful for entries too (no surprise).

 

I have been watching this latest selloff (6 down days on the daily) and with a median line drawn on the RTH session 60Min chart that has an upsloping median line at 1321.25 (as at this morning)

 

There was also a downsloping median line which intersected the upsloping line at EXACTLY the time and price that was hit this morning prompting me to get long at the IB Low.

 

 

The more I work with them the better my idea of trend and reaction points.

 

Several trades today had exits perfectly timed by using median lines after the market started rallying.

 

Looking at the 60 min - I don't expect much resistance until 1340.

 

We'll see.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Happy Friday everyone! I'm not going to be trading today but will be posting a bit. Just wanted to give you guys a quick look at the charts. I think if we move to test higher, 36.00/36.75 and then 40.25/42.00 will be important. Lower and of course we still have that 20.75 and yesterday's 19.75 low. There are singles supporting down to 18.75 from 6/28 which may be supportive but I wouldn't count on that. Michigan could be important as well at 9:55am.

 

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Open-Drive so far straight to test that first area I noted..

 

and breaking!

 

Note: this is why it's quite important to watch how we open. When you get and OD/OTD open, fading even a good level only a few points away from the open is never likely to go well!

[bakrob99 11]

ES SHORT AT 41.50 let's see

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think it should be pointed out here that "one swallow doth not make a summer" :-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think it should be pointed out here that "one swallow doth not make a summer" :-

 

 

Not that it currently matters. As they say "the markets can remain rational longer than you can remain solvent" (Keynes).

 

Although it's also possible that a trader can overlook the glaringly obvious and therefore misalign themselves with what is actually a perfectly rational market! Lol.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Wow, some size coming in around 44's

[bakrob99 11]

Over 300K volume 1st 30min mean this is a strong trending day

 

Sizable volume. 1353 - 1354 in sight

[TheNegotiator 13]

If you're not long right now, it may be worth being a little bit patient here. Open was strong and levels so far have been blasted through! This could be the prelude to continuation to the upside or it could be a short covering rally. Time will tell. Of course it's always possible that we turn around and make new lows by the end of the day, which would put a completely different spin on the day. Markets have been swinging one way and then the other in recent times.

[joshdance 10]

Not that it currently matters. As they say "the markets can remain rational longer than you can remain solvent" (Keynes).

 

Um, "irrational" I think N This type of activity is certainly not rational, that's for sure.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Um, "irrational" I think N This type of activity is certainly not rational, that's for sure.

 

Lol. Markets are only 'irrational' when they are moving against your position!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Those 44's where vol cam in earlier are holding for the min. could turn up here or if they get taken, possibly need to test lower.

[bakrob99 11]

Those 44's where vol cam in earlier are holding for the min. could turn up here or if they get taken, possibly need to test lower.[/quote

 

Hopefully they will push up to my Dtarget 1350 ish as I got long (again) at 44.50

 

Although this is a bad time of the day for a continuation entry IMO Usually retraces/reverses

[steve46 12]

Here's a pattern that I have mentioned previously (many times) called an "algo"

 

in this pattern price tests a specific point at a specific time ("time & price") and each time the bid holds....as the bots "see" this they feed orders to buy into the system and continue to do so until A.) they have a specific profit target or B.) another bot overcomes the system and reverses the trend....and of course this is but one example of how automated execution effects markets these days.

 

In response to one of the previous comments....there are no "masses" to buy or sell anything...very few "masses" have any discretionary cash, having lost their homes, jobs, and whatever savings they had over the last several years. This is a professional market and when you see lack of volume, what is happening is that professionals have obtained what they see as sufficient profit for the moment, or they are waiting for another time period where they can mark markets up or down with minimum capital outlay (risk). The prime times to put money to work are pre-open (what I have called pre-position opportunities in the overnight globex markets), followed by the open (RTH) and then beginning at 10am PST until the close. Because most institutional participants operate at or near the stroke of the hour and half hour, if you haven't got on board the trend by about 7:30 you are out of luck for the morning session. Notice the entry point on the right side of the ellipse (right at 7:30am PST)

 

Yes there are exceptions, but I will take my chances with this scheme

[TheNegotiator 13]

Quick chart to show the volume which came in at 44's earlier, for those who didn't see it:-

 

Edited July 13, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[bakrob99 11]

Here's a pattern that I have mentioned previously (many times) called an "algo"

 

I agree but see it slightly differently on a different chart

 

I use a 10K volume chart (ES) to identify those types of trades which is how I made my 1344.50 entry 1 tick in front of the push.

 

I call it the wall... becuase every time the market tries to get thru it it is bought up and forms a solid line in the 10k chart with 4-6 pts .

 

A drop down by 1 or max 2 ticks that gets bought up is even better as it shows a failure to find any selling below. This is sort of the Wyckoff spring idea - or a Drop Before Pop.

 

I use it to enter trends earlier than a confirmation entry with a tighter stop.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well if we weren't to hold 44's, vwap + low vol at 43ish could support us, then that low volume zone on the long term profile is coming in at the lower development of the current session profile down to the mid point. If.