Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

It's also useful to point out here that when you see confluence of levels and you don't get any strong reaction, that potentially tells you something. Lack of a quick turnaround says to me that anyone looking to short there saw that relatively strong push up and is waiting to see whether any more buying comes in before taking the trade...

[TheNegotiator 13]

I would say if we do get a break of the IB high and therefore a neutral day, first target above is probably 1353.75.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Haha. Neutral day by just 3 ticks in the end! Have a great weekend all and see you next week!

[Lisyara 10]

Trading from anoSSer side of the planet Gents, wish could jump in to the conversation timely. Just will note huge jump in buying volume at the end egain. Who? Why? Any clue?

[scott686545 10]

[Lisyara 10]

What does she mean by volume diversion?

[bakrob99 11]

What does she mean by volume diversion?

 

DIVERGENCE

 

The high has lower volume showing no follow thru.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Debt crisis: live

 

As this link shows, there are a number of EU issues overnight. ECB President Mario Draghi is speaking now, Obama is speaking on middle class tax breaks @ 11:50 ET and then there's Williams and Nowotny later too. The Spanish borrowing cost puts the EU summit in focus again as last time they commited to plan to plan a way of reducing sovereign debt yields. I suppose markets would like to hear more positive speak from there. We are also kicking off Q2 earnings this week with Alcoa due to report after close today and Google, JP Morgan and Wells Fargo later in the week. There's also Fed minutes on Wednesday which we'll be watching for any indication of more QE.

 

Friday held a good level at 41.75 stopping 2 ticks short and rallied into close. Below 41.75 is a big gap to 23.25. Interestingly, the 27.2% extension of the 5 day balance falls exactly at the half gap at 34.75. Looking above if we are strong, 57 is a price I'd watch to see if it can be broken followed by the gap close to 61.75. Above there and if 69.50 is taken we could make inroads into re-establishing in the upper balance from right hand chart and close gap to 79.50. We'll see.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Forgot to mention that there's not a great deal due for release eco fig-wise this week and also financials looked to hold a little strength friday. Will be interesting to see if this is also the case today.

[bakrob99 11]

Bought the 1342.50 IBL test of lows... hoping it goes to gap fill.

 

Wait and see mode

 

Volume really thin (light) this RTH session so far. No evidence of larger traders taking a position.

 

Scratched one long trade after I missed my short earlier.

 

This is the only thing I have going so far.

[bakrob99 11]

Forgot to mention that there's not a great deal due for release eco fig-wise this week and also financials looked to hold a little strength friday. Will be interesting to see if this is also the case today.

 

I have POTUS speaking about taxes at 11:50 EDT

[TheNegotiator 13]

Bought the 1342.50 IBL test of lows... hoping it goes to gap fill.

 

 

Me too. Liked the snap to the 41.75 but didn't like the double tap on it. Not sure whether they might not retry the lower gap at some point. Doesn't have to be today though. Open/Overnight VPOC important now.

[bakrob99 11]

Strong push which took out swing. Out 1/2 at VWAP and stop at BE +1 tick.

 

Walk the dog now....

[bakrob99 11]

I have added back 1/2 to my long at 1344.25 Moved stop up to BE on both.

 

Update: Out at BE on last part of the trade. Selloff continues which is a bit surprising but not that much as the volume of larger players is definitely lacking here.

Edited July 9, 2012 by bakrob99

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think really there were two things I noted as to why I wasn't confident on the push higher in that move. One was that despite a push through vwap/mid and reasonable delta, we didn't even get a test of the open/overnight vpoc. Two was that once it fell back to vwap/mid, every time we attempted a few ticks higher, prices went back offered quickly. That said to me that there was some unloading going on and given that we'd already failed to push higher, it looked pretty negative. We've only broken a few ticks so far though, but realistically I'm thinking we could go further.

[bakrob99 11]

You're right.

 

Had another long signal at 1341.75 which was nice but missed it as I was having lunch.

 

The first down swing off the open went for 6.25 pts. This last down move stopped at 6.0 pts.

 

The first push up that after the IBL was 5.25. Let's see what this one does when and if it gets there.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I think it's possible either way now. The break of 41.75 and IB low didn't get far, but then buying isn't exactly strong right now. We're butting up against the vwap/vpoc right now and if that goes we could see a stronger push up. Below 41.00, although there's the gap to be concerned with, there's also possibly some singles support on the MP down to ~38.00 so any longs could 'let' them try to sell it a little further. That could see a proper break or trapped shorts if it rejects quickly. We'll see.

 

Edit: forgot to say although vwap/vpoc holding, probably needs midpoint to break if to move higher.

Edited July 9, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Dollar index is also showing a little weakness. Either that could motivate buyers and we'll move up, or if the offers hold firm, as soon as there's a retrace in the $ there could be an attempt lower in ES...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just noticed that the thread has over 100k views now! Nice little milestone I guess. Thanks to everyone who contributes and anyone who asks questions etc.! Hopefully it's beneficial to people in some way

[bakrob99 11]

Long again at 42.50. Just can't seem to get short today?

 

I'll be having an itchy trigger finger if we get to 5.25 pts up on this push around 46.25... watching for a quick exit.

[bakrob99 11]

Oops. Couldn't break thru the VPOC or VWAP. Need a stronger push now.

 

 

30minute chart is looking good though.

[bakrob99 11]

Just noticed that the thread has over 100k views now! ...

I think half of them are mine

[bakrob99 11]

My new target is 45.75 and if it takes out 47 then looking for 49.50 and above to Settlement.

 

First it needs to get thru 44.50 though

 

UPDATE 13:28 EDT 1st Target hit

Edited July 9, 2012 by bakrob99

[bakrob99 11]

...Hopefully it's beneficial to people in some way

 

Of course, I would like to thank you because this thread and your analysis have been very helpful.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Of course, I would like to thank you because this thread and your analysis have been very helpful.

 

Cheers! Definitely lots of others who do (inc you) and have in the past posted good info. Looks like you're getting that move back up now perhaps.