Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just remember that other housing data this week so far has beaten average expectations so there will be a positive expectation for these too.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Trading pretty reasonable so far today. Initial open-drive on open kinda turned into an open-reject-reverse in the same direction so I didn't think it was as strong as if it had carried on higher first before pulling back. However, the market actually ended up looking pretty strong when it was moving higher and looked like we could plough on up. It looks a little more likely that it was short covering now though, but time will tell. We could easily push higher given we've actually only had a 9.25 point range so far. above, 1330.25 would easily be within reach considering recent ranges, with 31.75/32.75 just beyond. Any decent move lower could easily see a gap close to 1316.00 and then close of 13.75/13.25 yesterday's vpoc/closing range low.

 

Any of you guys having any joy yet today?

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

1327.50 is a definitely maybe too as it was a low volume area from 6/22.

[bakrob99 11]

I am still biased long ... but it struggling here. Need a breakout higher and run some stops to make those upside targets. EC's been better for me today.

 

Should say that 1331.75 is my upside target.

[bakrob99 11]

most recent long was initiated at the IBH 1326.00 when the market broke above and pulled back to it. Makes me wonder why I didn't just hold onto the 1318.75 long off the opening for longer ? I will probably get chopped out of this recent long pos.But we'll see.

 

Major chop now ... but whaddya gonna do... ( "gotta be in it to win it" Randy Jackson)

[bakrob99 11]

13:36 EDT ... right now market is at 50% pullback of last swing up and the 161.8 ext is exactly 1331.75. Cooincidence. Probably.

 

As I type this it is still going down and touching the 61.8% retracement. If there are buyers lurking out there ... then it's put up or shut up for buyers to move this thing higher.

 

Seems to be attracting more selling.

[bakrob99 11]

You hear from the professional traders that common mistakes made by unsuccessful traders - or new traders - is that they get into the move too early - get chopped out of it only to see the market go in the direction they had expected.

 

Ever happen to me? How about ALL THE TIME (if I'm not super careful) !

 

So I encourage you to watch the 30 minute chart on each bar's close and be prepared to act around the time of these 30 minute closes. This observation which I have been noting for several months has become very much a part of my entry considerations.

 

And it has helped.

 

Want some Examples:

When was the high put in today ... around 12:30 EDT

 

Want another: When was the most recent swing low then rally started... 3PM EDT.

 

When was the swing low before that at 1321.25 put in and the rally started... around 11:30 AM EDT

 

When was the High tested and then the next sell off occur... around 10:30 AM EDT.

 

When did the rally off the news start .... it may have started around 9:55 AM but it took off after the news at 1000 AM EDT.

 

Timing is critical for me to stay in a move and not be turned off by being chopped out. I have a 30 second warning in advance of every 30 bar and I sit up and pay attention to changes that are occuring on those times.

 

Why does this (seem to) work? I believe it's because the big intraday money uses 30 minute charts to make their decisions.

[joshdance 10]

Why does this (seem to) work? I believe it's because the big intraday money uses 30 minute charts to make their decisions.

 

A couple of observations regarding this... if there is a correlation, then would we expect something like the high and low of the day to occur within +/- 5 minutes of a 30 minute bar close, with some regularity? If that is the case, then we already have a 33% chance right off the bat, just from pure randomness (out of every 30 minutes, 10 of them are +/- 5 minutes from the :30s), so what would be an acceptable percentage to mean there is some correlation? 50% maybe? Just a thought. Objectively measuring is an option.

 

If there is some correlation, then another contributing factor could be that news releases are typically done on the hour and half hour, with a few notable exceptions. Not just US releases, but for other markets as well.

 

As for your anecdotal observations from today bakrob, it may be noteworthy that 10:30 is one hour after the open, 3:00 is one hour before the close, 10:00 was news time (as you mentioned), and 11:30 is close of most major european markets such as the London stock exchange, and Frankfurt stock exchange, and DAX, STOXX, FTSE, etc., all stop trading. So 3am ET and 11:30am ET are very important times every day.

[TheNegotiator 13]

A couple of observations regarding this... if there is a correlation, then would we expect something like the high and low of the day to occur within +/- 5 minutes of a 30 minute bar close, with some regularity? If that is the case, then we already have a 33% chance right off the bat, just from pure randomness (out of every 30 minutes, 10 of them are +/- 5 minutes from the :30s), so what would be an acceptable percentage to mean there is some correlation? 50% maybe? Just a thought. Objectively measuring is an option.

 

If there is some correlation, then another contributing factor could be that news releases are typically done on the hour and half hour, with a few notable exceptions. Not just US releases, but for other markets as well.

 

As for your anecdotal observations from today bakrob, it may be noteworthy that 10:30 is one hour after the open, 3:00 is one hour before the close, 10:00 was news time (as you mentioned), and 11:30 is close of most major european markets such as the London stock exchange, and Frankfurt stock exchange, and DAX, STOXX, FTSE, etc., all stop trading. So 3am ET and 11:30am ET are very important times every day.

 

The important thing to recognise is that there are key times at all and you should be aware that something could happen around those times. So it's good to point out. I do also keep an eye out for any change in activity around the 30&60 min mark as I do often notice a flurry of activity. It doesn't always change things, but it's often there and worth having at the back of your mind at the very least.

[bakrob99 11]

Joshdance and Negotiator,

 

Exactly. I don't make a "trade" decision based on time analysis - but I situp and take notice AND if the 30minute chart has some change which I think is a significant change in behaviour then it's even more important.

[bakrob99 11]

There are 2 measured move targets down at 1311.50 - 1312.50 range I expect to be going down at least this morning. There has been responsive buying at the lows and it looks like they are stepping in again .. but why are we down here again if the News pop was such a good deal? I think the 1325 high is key and if we don't take it out then look for lower prices.

 

Let's see what develops. I'm flat going into the open.

[bakrob99 11]

ECU12 looks like 1.2354 might be the target. EC is in "sell each rally mode".

[TheNegotiator 13]

GDP a little better, Initial Jobless Claims and PCE a little worse, Kansas City Manufacturing Activity to come at 10am.

 

Lots of news flow from Europe has seen a bit more activity in the overnight session so far than the last couple of overnight sessions. I think we could get some interesting action RTH and unless we get some ground breaking new info, I doubt we'll see fireworks. You never know though ACH!

 

Here's a chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

 

What a rumour to kick off the day. Will they actually do it though? If they did, are they likely to announce anything today? Probably not.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Oh yeah and there's this supreme court ruling on "obamacare" later on today. Such fun!!

[TheNegotiator 13]

OTD open so far (test was attempt of yesterdays low) for a break with the gap type move. We've hit the 27.2% extension on the low so far so I'd want to see it break that soon. If it does, the 100% ex is at 07.75 right in that important 07.25-08.50 zone. Otherwise they will likely try to close the gap. Probably need to be looking at the half gap ~ 21.75 too if it gets there.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Not that it's a massive number anyway, but it looks like that Kansas City Manufacturing Activity release is at 11am not 10am.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Watch out. Supreme court info coming out it looks like. Nothing on health care yet though.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Health care law has been upheld completely aparently. ES reacting now.

[bakrob99 11]

10:09 EDT Target hit 1312.50

[TheNegotiator 13]

Just take care if you are trading. Don't get sucked in for no reason other than the movement.

[TheNegotiator 13]

There's now confusion as to actually what has been ruled. Possibly upheld but "limited". I'd stand back until we actually know what is going on here.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Some classic action going on there:-

 

[bakrob99 11]

11:45 EDT I think that there is a very good chance the next target down is the 1303 lows.

[TheNegotiator 13]

11:45 EDT I think that there is a very good chance the next target down is the 1303 lows.

 

Possibly. Not a great low there, although it did turn form the area I mentioned. Could be important here whether or not it manages to stay within the IB. We'll see.