Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[bakrob99 11]

Looked a little "iffy" there for a while but the last pullback found more orders. Scaling out here 2 pts and moving stop to 1316. Time to walk the dog and stop watching this screen.

[bakrob99 11]

Back into the IB... see if it goes all the way down (and thru).

 

Wouldn't be surprised to test 1300.

[bakrob99 11]

Bouncing off Peak Volume (POC) here. Hopefully it will rally a bit then sell of f for next move down through 1305-1307 support and lower.

 

FYI, Wednesday BEFORE OEX day is often a Range Expansion day.

 

Update: It's 3:18 EDT and we're thru the IBL now and continuing down. I really think that 1300 is in the cards as that is a key test area of support for the past 4 days. If it fails to hold ... look out below.

Edited June 13, 2012 by bakrob99

[bakrob99 11]

Whew ... we're taking out some stops now. Really fascinating to watch this "new world order" price action.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thought I'd post an early morning chart for you to deliberate:-

 

 

Notice the wide 5-day balance and that in spite of the sell-off yesterday, the daily VPOC is overall moving up.

[bakrob99 11]

I see the price action as more bearish. I expect 1300 and then 1297 to be tested and if we don't find buyers stepping up then we could be in for much lower. This expiration may provide some market manipulation to confuse, but for me I will be watching the lower areas of support 1303.50, 1300 and 1297 and selling retraces to them if we break down.

 

Of course, this is only based on recent price action and the failure to extend the highs to logical areas. This certainly is not a trade recommendation - but be aware that Greece elections and other Euro events this weekend may have an impact on the willingness of traders to hold large positions.

 

Yesterday German bond sales were affected and the possibility that German costs (interest rates) will rise as traders realize that Germany will be adversely affected by any Euro result. If they come up with a rescue package Germany will have to finance it. If they don't Germany relies on Euro partners for over 40% of its exports. Either way - they're in a hard place.

 

For me, I find that in any given week I have maybe 5 or 6 really good long distance targeted moves that I need to be in and hold in order to make a decent return. All the other trades just cover themselves or make a bit. So this means - if I trade less but press it harder when I'm right and confident of the market's trajectory, I can really do much better.

 

Good luck with your trading and remember that this is a major expiration event taking place over the next few days.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I see the price action as more bearish. I expect 1300 and then 1297 to be tested and if we don't find buyers stepping up then we could be in for much lower. This expiration may provide some market manipulation to confuse, but for me I will be watching the lower areas of support 1303.50, 1300 and 1297 and selling retraces to them if we break down.

 

Of course, this is only based on recent price action and the failure to extend the highs to logical areas. This certainly is not a trade recommendation - but be aware that Greece elections and other Euro events this weekend may have an impact on the willingness of traders to hold large positions.

 

There is uncertainty and a high degree of risk on both sides. I think the over-riding thought is that they can't let Europe fail and Greece will sort something out. But that's by no means forgone conclusion either. They could just say "enough is enough", default and leave the Euro. Who knows. What I see right now is a market which is in a wide balance. The lows are poor, but then the highs aren't great either. Given the lack of follow through to the downside last week, the higher volume dev could be accounted for by short covering into the Greek Weekend. However, I don't believe we should be reading it like you would in the normal technical manner. Until this weekend is over, all bets are off. Anything could happen.

[bakrob99 11]

EDT 9:15 Bearish Butterfly on charts for pattern traders. Suggests move down to 1307-1308

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I'm liking the 13.25's from yesterday and overnight action. Then it's 16.75. If they can't hold buyers, it's going to be 20/21 next but I suspect there'd be at least a test of the 23's in that case. Failure at either of the first 2 levels and I would still like to see a test of the 1298.25's, although that's not to say we couldn't trend back to the middle towards the close(or even sell-off/rally lol).

[bakrob99 11]

1307.25 just hit 22 minutes after setup. Sweet.

 

Now it can bounce and hopefully get back to the 13-14's

 

But Delta still too negative for me to do anything on the long side here. Watching now. That can change quickly though.

[TheNegotiator 13]

1307.25 just hit 22 minutes after setup. Sweet.

 

Now it can bounce and hopefully get back to the 13-14's

 

But Delta still too negative for me to do anything on the long side here. Watching now. That can change quickly though.

 

Was a nice little setup from the 7.50's too. Maybe we'll get those 13.25's now.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Obviously the open was not fancied to break there. Maybe this time ...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Not a bad little move from the 7.25 low at all. next up is overnight high and then the 16.75's

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's the updated intraday chart:-

 

[bakrob99 11]

1320's still the line in the sand for Shorts.

 

Had to finesse a re entry into this upmove after the test lower and rejection of lower prices around 10:33. For me that signaled new highs likely, and the delta on the 5m chart changed positive right on time to make a low risk re entry in to the long possible, which hopefully will keep going.

[bakrob99 11]

I have a measured move projecting to the Upper Median Line at 1323.25 so I suspect the 1323's will be tested

 

Time to trail my stop and walk the dog.

[bakrob99 11]

Here it is 2 1/2 hours later and lunch produced no magical giant push. In fact, the position shorts are still hanging on and if we break down thru 1316-1317 area we could see some aggressive selling. Stop at 1316. Hurry up and wait.

 

 

EDT 2:26 Back inside the IB here .... watch for a downside move.

Edited June 14, 2012 by bakrob99

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here it is 2 1/2 hours later and lunch produced no magical giant push. In fact, the position shorts are still hanging on and if we break down thru 1316-1317 area we could see some aggressive selling. Stop at 1316. Hurry up and wait.

 

Yup. Highly balanced and waiting for a break either way. Considering where the balance is, I'm not sure that 23.00's are likely to hold and the recent activity above is pretty thin. Who knows :missy:

[bakrob99 11]

Back to VWAP. See if buyers step in. Somehow I doubt it.

 

3:08 EDT Update: So much for doubt. Wow ! Pop amazing. Straight up. Man this new world price action is something to behold. Buy Programs hitting, stops being lifted, market orders being shipped in by the boatload. Right after the weak longs got out, myself included.

 

3:09 NEWS RELATED Central bank agreement to provide liquidity if needed after Greek Elections.

Edited June 14, 2012 by bakrob99

[bakrob99 11]

So do we keep going up thru the near term resistance, or are we going to fall sharply as a result of the uncertainty and Euro matter?

 

On the Daily Chart of the ES here we are back at a Median Line which has been very in tune with the market price action over the past few months.

 

 

If we can't take out June 11th high at 1342 and rally thru it then we are likely in for a down day and then who knows? 1220 - 1240 would be easily possible.

 

On the other hand, the Central Bankers seem bound and determined to provide liquidity in advance of the Greek election. And the G20 meeting is going on right at the most critical time. Interesting times for sure.

 

I don't plan to do anything other than what I normally do to make a daily income from the markets. But I especially will not be trading large size today as it is also Quad Expiration.

 

Stay liquid.

[bakrob99 11]

All in all, today I managed NOT to get chopped up which is my number one goal on OEX day. Linda R would be happy. There's been 3 pushes up so that's enough for me.

 

I am often re-Entering trends and today has setup perfectly for my style. What appears to be choppy is not really when you know what to look for. The key is to not let yourself get "excited" by the advertising of price. The big boys can't hide their volume and if I just follow it, things generally work out well enough.

 

Here's an example of what I like to see as a market meets its target. The 5Min delta chart shows obvious areas of volume buying, each of which have:

1. A Change in VolumeBreakdown to Positive from the prior bar

2. Three or more Delta prices in a row which are green represent aggresssive buying interest

3. That establishes a BUY ZONE which I will enter using a limit order at the top of it

4. A stop can go below the low of the Buy Zone

 

[bakrob99 11]

The only thing I did today was get long towards the gap fill. After that, I've been sitting on my hands with absolutely no idea which way this thing is going to break. This consolidation for the past hour (it's now 12:34 EDT) will take us somewhere. Chart looks higher but who knows?

 

Anybody have any ideas?

 

I am watching value which has developed here at 1334-1335 range.

 

To the upside I have 1343 as my first target. Downside 1325.50.

Edited June 18, 2012 by bakrob99

[bakrob99 11]

UPDATE 13:27 EDT: ES 1345.75 now establshed as upside target.

[bakrob99 11]

1st target hit in Globex, and likely 2nd target premarket. Gap from May 11 attracting price. The long side worked out well yesterday and all my trades were longs.

 

One day at a time.

[TheNegotiator 13]

1st target hit in Globex, and likely 2nd target premarket

 

what's your 2nd target?