Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[roztom 10]

Market action since Jan 1 has been tough for traders looking for pullbacks. Once a move is underway, it keeps going having skipped past the traders who would be getting in on pullbacks, and using the fuel of the stops of the responsive traders to keep going.

 

IMO, you have to figure out a methid for getting in the trends that is different than "normal" market behaviour because, in this mareket, by the time a pullback happens the move is over.

 

No disagreement... However, it is just a personal choice of my trade plan... I did have one chance around 1401.00 I think but the risk for the size I trade was more than I wanted... One of things I look for is at least a high probability to scale and it would have not been a good location or I would have to cut my size way down so I let it go... after all it is only one trade out of many.. my philosophy is there is always another bus coming by.

 

Along the way I have shifted my thinking from profit first to laying off risk first.. then I concentrate on the profit. I keep my P&L much less volatile with careful trade selection and also putting risk management first. In addition, once I reduce or neutralize my risk, trading is a lot more enjoyable and less stressful. Again, just a personal adjustment for my own psyche.

 

As I write this we just tested the single from yesterday in ON trade at 95.75. Normally I would take that trade but I did not with this mornings ADP report coming and coffee still brewing..

 

MCVPOC 92.50 is a big number dwn there.. imho

Edited May 2, 2012 by roztom

[gosu 10]

Glad you had a good day. I am not a breakout trader, since it doesn't usually align wit my risk management... I am a continuation trader after a breakout which is why I commented that there really wasn't any rotation so I had no entry. Glad you had a set up to capitalize on yesterday..

 

Hi Tom,

 

I am guessing that your "rotation" is what I call a "retrace" and I do see that waiting for a decent retrace to play the continuation after the breakout (BO) would have kept you sidelined yesterday AM. For me, the BO is paired with the FBO, so I do not limit myself to continuation moves and like to play the reversals on the failures. Moreover, there are different kinds of BOs and I knew yesterday's was not going to fail on the fractal that I trade. I've written previously about why I hold through trend AMs rather than trading nondoms (retraces) or trading around them. Waiting for a retrace to play continuation after the FBO is ruled out is equivalent to trading around nondoms. I won't bore you by repeating my reasons.

 

On a sidenote, compared to yesterday I consider today's AM much more challenging to trade on ES. After seeing the cash market open yesterday within the prior day's lateral, I expected the kind of action we had this morning - namely, a BO south after the news report, FBO and back into range into midday. Today's cash open was a duplicate of yesterday's and I carried over the same lateral channel from 2 days ago. It's as if the market was on its way to somewhere yesterday morning when it got hijacked momentarily and this morning it got back on course and completed what it intended.

 

Hopefully this was somewhat intelligible.

 

Cheers.

[roztom 10]

Hi Tom,

 

I am guessing that your "rotation" is what I call a "retrace" and I do see that waiting for a decent retrace to play the continuation after the breakout (BO) would have kept you sidelined yesterday AM. For me, the BO is paired with the FBO, so I do not limit myself to continuation moves and like to play the reversals on the failures. Moreover, there are different kinds of BOs and I knew yesterday's was not going to fail on the fractal that I trade. I've written previously about why I hold through trend AMs rather than trading nondoms (retraces) or trading around them. Waiting for a retrace to play continuation after the FBO is ruled out is equivalent to trading around nondoms. I won't bore you by repeating my reasons.

 

On a sidenote, compared to yesterday I consider today's AM much more challenging to trade on ES. After seeing the cash market open yesterday within the prior day's lateral, I expected the kind of action we had this morning - namely, a BO south after the news report, FBO and back into range into midday. Today's cash open was a duplicate of yesterday's and I carried over the same lateral channel from 2 days ago. It's as if the market was on its way to somewhere yesterday morning when it got hijacked momentarily and this morning it got back on course and completed what it intended.

 

Hopefully this was somewhat intelligible.

 

Cheers.

 

I understand what you are saying since I understand market but some of the specifics I don't... since I don't trade with channels, etc but focus on price and volume at price...it doesn't matter of course as long as we bring home the bacon - right..?

 

Today I did not take the morning short or buy on the reversal after we ran out of sellers...

 

I did however, get long in the afternoon @ 95.75 and scaled and banked 7 pts per unit... my unit is 3 so I scaled close + 1.5, +2.5, +3.0. Not exciting but it will pay the electric bill...

 

One of the reasons I don't trade breakouts often is that I need to see where I can lay my risk off... Obviously not all BO's are created equal... If we are near a recent High/Low or some area where there will be stops then I will target that as a high probability scale...

 

Yesterday was rough since I had bought near the LOD but had closed my trade before we took off...

 

I have changed my priorities from profit to laying off risk... If I can get high probability scales - which I typically do then I have protected my P&L and then have bought the risk capital to work the rest of the trade... The scales BTW are not necessarily as close as today's. That is all I had to work with... and my location was roughly upper 65% of the range so I had to hit & run.. Still it was ok for one trade for the day..

 

:missy:

[cma6 10]

Negotiaor, what is "IB" low?

[cma6 10]

Is there a glossary for the newbies of the acronyms, e.g.,

 

1398.00 NVPOC.

 

1400.75 CLVN

MCHVN 1411.25...got stopped at HOD

 

Tried a long at just under IBH.

[cma6 10]

One more acronym: FBO?

[cma6 10]

Roztom: what is MCVPOC and ON

[goodoboy 10]

My friend wants to short the ES playing the job data in the morning. He believes the data will bad.

 

If he puts a 3 points stop whats the chances of that stop not getting filled because the price action moving so fast?

 

Thanks,

[karoshiman 10]

My friend wants to short the ES playing the job data in the morning. He believes the data will bad.

 

If he puts a 3 points stop whats the chances of that stop not getting filled because the price action moving so fast?

 

Thanks,

 

 

48.648%

 

Don't bet the ranch.

[karoshiman 10]

My friend wants to short the ES playing the job data in the morning. He believes the data will bad.

 

If he puts a 3 points stop whats the chances of that stop not getting filled because the price action moving so fast?

 

Thanks,

 

As a more useful comment :

 

Why doesn't he trade after the news? At least he would have a little bit more info... and, hence, a little less risk (although giving up also a little bit of profit potential). Action can remain wild some minutes after the release.

[bakrob99 11]

Negotiaor, what is "IB" low?

 

Initial Balance low. Usually the Initial Balance is the first hour of trading (High and Low) but may be slightly longer in the ES.

[bakrob99 11]

Roztom: what is MCVPOC and ON

 

Micro Composite Volume Point of Control and Over Night.

[bakrob99 11]

Is there a glossary for the newbies of the acronyms, e.g.,

 

 

Yes. See: Glossary | FuturesTrader71

[TheNegotiator 13]

Is there a glossary for the newbies of the acronyms, e.g.,

 

1398.00 NVPOC.

 

1400.75 CLVN

MCHVN 1411.25...got stopped at HOD

 

Tried a long at just under IBH.

 

Looks like you've been directed to a good source for some. As for others, I'd ask anyone to occassionally drop in the full terms of the abbreviations used for this very reason. But if you don't know, please ask;)

[TheNegotiator 13]

Potentially a big day for the markets. ADP came in way below on Weds. However, in my experience it's best not to get too into the idea that NFP will certainly follow.

 

1- ADP does not always accurately predict NFP's

2- There could be revisions to the previous figure to account for

3- The market could well have discounted to a fair level based on the chances for a out of line figure and so any better than now expected release could catch people with their trousers down.

4- Often on NFP days we see one way then the other. Don't get married to a trade if it starts to turn sour.

5- A highly negative report could ultimately have positive connotations with respect to possibly elevating the chances of a near term QE3. This is really what the market is after right now.

 

Above all, to quote the last chairman of the ECB, "we must remain vigilant" (to downside risks to stability as well as up ).

[karoshiman 10]

Well, that was an interesting reaction a minute before the release... lol

[TheNegotiator 13]

nfp 115k exp 160k act, 120k last rev to 154k unemployment 8.2 % exp 8.1% actual.

[TheNegotiator 13]

There are some key points on the chart that the market is saying it feels is important. One is 89 area. The other right now is 80. 1380.00 using a long term back-adjusted profile starting from 03/14/07 is the lowest volume price point (meaning lowest point of valley not directly volume) until 1346.75 below and above 1465.00.

 

edit:forgot to add the pic

 

Edited May 4, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

There is basically a decision to be made today. Do we take out the gap below 80.25 or do we re-establish value back into the upper balance? There could well be a "testing the water" below the 80's in RTH although this did happen post NFP release.

 

Here's the chart of what I am looking for:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Btw, if you find yourself being kicked out of your login after a while so you can't see the images posted, just make sure you check the "remember me?" box when logging in.

[TheNegotiator 13]

unsurprisingly, in case it gets there for a test, 83 is the half gap.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hope everyone is doing well so far today. Personally felt it has been quite simple to trade so far and will do a diagram to explain shortly.

[TheNegotiator 13]

crude btw is carnage right now and is well below $100

[TheNegotiator 13]

Wow that took a while to do the diagram and now broken further!!! :doh: Anyway targets below for me were 66.75/65.00, 60.75/60.00, 57.25, 54.00/52.50, 48.00/46.75.

 

Here is the diagram of what I was watching (finally phew):-

 

[The Abyss 10]

Negotiator,

ive been a trader for 11 yrs.. most of them energy and the past few ive added SP e-minis to the mix. I am an old NYMEX floor trader who has incorporated Market Profile as my main tool since leaving the floor. I have never been much for forums but recently have found myself searching for some to follow/join.

After looking thru your posts here i admire your approach. I believe sharing a common approach is benificial to a trader's pysche for the day to day grind.

 

I look forward to following here. Thanks.