Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Josh, I find it hard to accept you don't know what a node is, as you speak about them all day everyday here on this thread. Why act so disingenuous?

 

Cory, I really wasn't sure what you meant. I assure you, no acting here my friend, though I see what you are talking about now. Blame it on gosu, he uses all sorts of funny words and after reading his stuff you never take for granted anything you read! :rofl:

 

Josh, my point is that I believe more is lost than gained by appreciating voluminous or rotational nodes as opposed to the activity which created them!

 

I understand now, and was probably thinking a bit too hard (and was tired) when I wrote this. Put another way, you are more concerned with the end result (price), than the activity (volume) which creates it -- is that a correct assessment, generally?

 

The action and activity of how the market got to where it's at from where it was is meaningful in my opinion. I've already told you how I consider all price activity equally meaningful no matter the volume so all that's left is to disagree on contextual understandings of how we individually view the market.

 

So in other words -- you do care that the market went up, down, up, consolidated, then up again, as opposed to simply going straight up-- but, you don't care about the amount of volume that it took to get it there. Yes?

 

I am going to write the second part of my response in another post since it is separate from this. I think it will agree quite well with what you have said so far. I hope you and all are having a wonderful weekend so far by the way! It's beautiful outside here, hope it is where you are too.

[roztom 10]

Things seems to have gotten quite lively here...at least you will not fall asleep during the trading day..

 

I can certainly relate to LVN's being more important than HVN's since they represent aggressive activity. However, HVN's represent an agreed upon fair price...

 

Friday we tested MCVPOC at 1392.50..this is the dividing line between two micro-composities..a key level... Buyers were activated at that level when it was tested from above Friday morning since the market made vertical movement up into a new area where we should see it pause and potentially bracket... ACH (Josh)...

 

This market was very strong with only some profit taking going into the close...

 

Hope you are all doing well...stay alert, wear a helmet..

[roztom 10]

Trading Plan: I wonder how many traders actually put a plan together for the next day..

 

We all have heard about trading plans but some are I'll buy when it's right and sell, etc...

 

I want to share just a bit about what I do... Mind you, I was for years one of those guys who would just show up and "do it."

 

Things really changed for me when I put a plan together, like a pilots flight plan. Areas of interest. What I would do when/if the market got to a specific number... areas to do business in...

 

I find that when I am in the noise that it is much more difficult... Sure if the day develops and I see continuation set-ups or rotations I can trade those but that, imho, is not where the real $ is...

 

The key is to get on the edge of a inter-day swing and try to align with a higher time-frame trader - the OTF. I also know that no matter what that my job is to execute the trade when it appears where I expect it to... not make it up as I go..

 

The trading day is about execution not planning... Obviously I create several hypothesis coming in and then adjust them based on Globex..then I know what I will do..

 

The only other variable is where we open in relation to the previous VA and what Opening Type it is which helps give an advanced peek on what day-type might evolve...

 

I'm not saying this is necessary to make consistent $ but with preparation, like a military strategist, my campaign is laid out and all I have to do is execute it...

[joshdance 10]

There is something about the futures market that has always "bothered" me a bit. I put that in quotes because it's not like it emotionally disturbs me, but rather it simply causes me to scratch my head a little bit. I have always been curious as to why we can see thousands of contracts furiously change hands within seconds, and the market moves very little if at all, as if one side is "guarding" a price level, YET a 5000 contract transaction in the overnight market will likely move the market at least 10 to 12 ticks, if not more. Alas, I don't have a 5000 lot to throw at the market to test it out, but would it even "work"? Maybe someday I can try it out.

 

What Cory is essentially saying (please correct me if I'm wrong, Cory) is that even though the overnight session trades about 20% of the RTH volume, the movement of the market and the importance of the prices traded is no less significant. This is because some major market around the world is open most of the time. At 7pm ET the ASX opens in Sydney. At 8pm the TSE opens in Tokyo. At 9pm it's the HKEX in Hong Kong. When Japan takes their break, HK stays open, and vice versa. At 3am the Frankfurt market opens (at 9am their time), and the LSE opens in London (at 8am their time). Meanwhile, Australia has closed at 1am, Tokyo at 2am, and Hong Kong closes shortly, at 4am, after the European markets have opened at 3am. Only after 11:30am is the US the only major market open in the world.

 

So, all of this global activity, along with the interbank currency market, is mirrored by markets which are not open at the time, like the US futures market. While the futures market is a derivative of the cash market, it's the cash market that "gaps" (though most NYSE stocks are still available to trade up until 8pm ET ) to match the futures market as a result of the premium differential. Likewise, when the exchange in Frankfurt closes at 11:30am ET, DAX futures still trade until 4pm ET, and they will roughly follow the movements of the only major market open, the US market. And even when the DAX futures stop trading at 4pm, they will gap when they open at 2am, to roughly mirror the movement in the other markets (Australia, Tokyo, and China, as mentioned previously).

 

And the premise is that even though very small volume trades from 4:30pm to 9:30am ET, this is a reflection, or representation of global sentiment, and thus the "memory" of the market is contained just as well in those price movements as the ones from the RTH hours.

 

Is this basically how you view things Cory?

[joshdance 10]

Trading Plan: I wonder how many traders actually put a plan together for the next day..

 

Tom, what's up buddy? I encourage you to post in the thread I created today as it's very related:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/12919-pre-open-plans-hypotheses.html#post148342

[roztom 10]

Tom, what's up buddy? I encourage you to post in the thread I created today as it's very related:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/trading-psychology/12919-pre-open-plans-hypotheses.html#post148342

 

Well, I saw what you wrote.. looks like you're making trouble....

 

I have a contrary opinion... but I understand why you might have your opinion. There is no right or wrong... or is there.... :rofl:.

[clmacdougall 11]

There is something about the futures market that has always "bothered" me a bit. I put that in quotes because it's not like it emotionally disturbs me, but rather it simply causes me to scratch my head a little bit. I have always been curious as to why we can see thousands of contracts furiously change hands within seconds, and the market moves very little if at all, as if one side is "guarding" a price level, YET a 5000 contract transaction in the overnight market will likely move the market at least 10 to 12 ticks, if not more. Alas, I don't have a 5000 lot to throw at the market to test it out, but would it even "work"? Maybe someday I can try it out.

 

What Cory is essentially saying (please correct me if I'm wrong, Cory) is that even though the overnight session trades about 20% of the RTH volume, the movement of the market and the importance of the prices traded is no less significant. This is because some major market around the world is open most of the time. At 7pm ET the ASX opens in Sydney. At 8pm the TSE opens in Tokyo. At 9pm it's the HKEX in Hong Kong. When Japan takes their break, HK stays open, and vice versa. At 3am the Frankfurt market opens (at 9am their time), and the LSE opens in London (at 8am their time). Meanwhile, Australia has closed at 1am, Tokyo at 2am, and Hong Kong closes shortly, at 4am, after the European markets have opened at 3am. Only after 11:30am is the US the only major market open in the world.

 

So, all of this global activity, along with the interbank currency market, is mirrored by markets which are not open at the time, like the US futures market. While the futures market is a derivative of the cash market, it's the cash market that "gaps" (though most NYSE stocks are still available to trade up until 8pm ET ) to match the futures market as a result of the premium differential. Likewise, when the exchange in Frankfurt closes at 11:30am ET, DAX futures still trade until 4pm ET, and they will roughly follow the movements of the only major market open, the US market. And even when the DAX futures stop trading at 4pm, they will gap when they open at 2am, to roughly mirror the movement in the other markets (Australia, Tokyo, and China, as mentioned previously).

 

And the premise is that even though very small volume trades from 4:30pm to 9:30am ET, this is a reflection, or representation of global sentiment, and thus the "memory" of the market is contained just as well in those price movements as the ones from the RTH hours.

 

Is this basically how you view things Cory?

 

I couldn't have said it better, Thanks Josh!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Rather than concentrate on HiVol levels, I have found it more helpful to watch Low Volume nodes only. And the 30min bar's VPOC

 

It only took 488 pages for this to be pointed out.

 

But it's not true in all circumstances. Think about it.

 

If the market is balanced it is contained by ...(your answer here)

 

If the market is imbalanced it is seeking ...(your answer here)

 

If you view high and low volume areas in isolation, then I'd agree that low volume is often more obvious. But rarely by taking a basic approach do we obtain the best results. Looking harder and applying auction logic allows you to better judge situations where high(or low) volume areas act as good opportunities for point of entry.

[roztom 10]

Todays trade was interesting Haver 2 shorts...first off open with test of MCVPOC & CLVN 91.25...target was 89 - 90.00 area Thursday IBH... outside shot to CHVN 87.75.

 

Took second short at test of OSL 95.75 & holding after scales for 89.00 area still...

 

Will look for long against 89.00 ish risk area dwn to bottom of chvn area to 86.50 ish...

 

Working on structure to manage runner as you know...

 

Feel free to ignore trades posted after the fact...just showing trade mgmt ideas... Scales on shorts Fri LOD, CLVN 91.25, target below..

[MightyMouse 12]

You need a sense of humor to trade es today.

[bakrob99 11]

Looking harder and applying auction logic allows you to better judge situations where high(or low) volume areas act as good opportunities for point of entry.

 

I spent quite a few years entering at high volume (places) and found out it wasn't conducive to my financial well being. Much too choppy for me. After all, if the market likes the area it will trade there for a while. Rangebound - you can do well buying the low or selling the high if you get the breakout direction right.

 

I tracked CHVN's and CLVN's but decided a while ago to get rid of the high volume node lines on my chart to make it cleaner/clearer. I think I can easily see where the market has spent some time before using overlapping bars... and where it may again if it gets back to it.

 

Thanks for your reply.

[gosu 10]

But it's not true in all circumstances. Think about it.

 

If the market is balanced it is contained by ...(your answer here)

 

If the market is imbalanced it is seeking ...(your answer here)

 

If you view high and low volume areas in isolation, then I'd agree that low volume is often more obvious. But rarely by taking a basic approach do we obtain the best results. Looking harder and applying auction logic allows you to better judge situations where high(or low) volume areas act as good opportunities for point of entry.

 

I don't see it as either/or. Does high volume tell you more than low volume? What about "middling" volume? I don't see any mention of "middling" volume.

[CYP 10]

I don't see it as either/or. Does high volume tell you more than low volume? What about "middling" volume? I don't see any mention of "middling" volume.

 

Someone once told me to stop "middling" in other people's business...oh, wait...that was "meddling"...never mind...

 

:rofl:

[roztom 10]

I spent quite a few years entering at high volume (places) and found out it wasn't conducive to my financial well being. Much too choppy for me. After all, if the market likes the area it will trade there for a while. Rangebound - you can do well buying the low or selling the high if you get the breakout direction right.

 

I tracked CHVN's and CLVN's but decided a while ago to get rid of the high volume node lines on my chart to make it cleaner/clearer. I think I can easily see where the market has spent some time before using overlapping bars... and where it may again if it gets back to it.

 

Thanks for your reply.

 

If you look at a composite you will see brackets of CHVN with CLVN in the middle back to CHVN on the edges... kind of like backwaeds "C" CHVN's at top & bottom of "C" and CLVN in the middle of the "C".

 

I find the CHVN's are important for defining where price was accepted... These tend to bracket CLVN's.. The market tends to move from one area of acceptance to the next...

 

I don't stand in front of CHVN's or any of the nodes but I do combine the CUM Nodes with the MiroComposites which give me a much clearer idea where the key levels to do business are..

 

In responce to your comment about CHVN areas being choppy, I agree.. One thing when trading arouind CHVN's there is typically a 3 pt rotational harmonic in ES which is often seen when trying to traverse CHVN...

 

I trade from 3 levels... High Level COmposite to MicroCOmposite then yesterdays profile and then taken into account todays Open type and where it is in relation to yesterdays VA and then after IB switch to today's development...

 

As N, mentioned..context is the key and the CHVN's are an important part of the context...

 

BTW, this is not a rebuttal but a response to your comment about CHVN's... I had also drawn a similar conclusion about them but have changed what I expect to get from them and how I trade them...

[joshdance 10]

You need a sense of humor to trade es today.

 

It seems one needs a sense of humor to trade ES at all. So willing to buy at 1410, 20 points straight up, and not willing to buy at 1405.. lol

[joshdance 10]

It seems one needs a sense of humor to trade ES at all. So willing to buy at 1410, 20 points straight up, and not willing to buy at 1405.. lol

 

Take for example this fall off the cliff into the close. The market is not searching for value, or any of that really. It's just screwing as many people on both sides as it possibly can. There is no logic or searching for value to it. Trap the shorts, and then when they stop out above 1410, trap all the longs who are trying to buy back after such "strength" from the market. All bull shit, sorry, but why else does a market do this? It ain't what it used to be...

[gosu 10]

* * *All bull shit, sorry, but why else does a market do this? It ain't what it used to be...

 

Have you ever played Whac-A-Mole?

[bakrob99 11]

Take for example this fall off the cliff into the close. The market is not searching for value, or any of that really. It's just screwing as many people on both sides as it possibly can. There is no logic or searching for value to it. Trap the shorts, and then when they stop out above 1410, trap all the longs who are trying to buy back after such "strength" from the market. All bull shit, sorry, but why else does a market do this? It ain't what it used to be...

 

To me it was longs closing out their trades somewhat disappointed that it didn't hold up for more move to the upside. Nothing weird about it at all. If it's EASY UP ... then it can be EASY DOWN too. Very easy for daytraders to hold longs and they have to exit before the close. So around noon EST the High Tick extreme signalled the end of the party.

[roztom 10]

Today's ES range was 20.5 which fits right in... We settled 1400.25 a key CLVN...

 

After today's action it seems a day of rest is in order... maybe an inside day... I know I need a day of rest after today...

 

It took me by surprise.. Initially I was looking for a rotational auction kind of day with a slight upward bias.. I got long right off the open, got some scales and exited my long at 1398.00 NVPOC... felt pretty good about it until it kept going... but that was my plan..

 

Saw one spot to get long against 1400.75 CLVN but took a pass because of risk... Twiddled my thumbs and then got short against 1409.50... with stop 2 ticks over MCHVN 1411.25...got stopped at HOD :crap:

 

Tried a long at just under IBH... ended up losing 2 ticks there. All together when the dust settled I had a small losing day... The main reason for the loses was not getting scales on my last 2 trades.. :helloooo: I try to get risk neutral asap...

 

Fortunately, while days like this are greed inspiring and challenge one's discipline, I got away unscathed... Many traders will chase this kind of day and pay the price for it.. The impulse to "not miss out" is very strong - and can be costly.

 

A little rotation might have been nice, though to get on... do you think?

 

Hope you all did ok..while getting a nice piece of days like this can be exciting and profitable, I suspect most Day traders lose $..maybe I'm biased - hope you guys banked some $...

Edited May 1, 2012 by roztom

[tortoise 10]

R3 didn't hold, so ES fell back to and closed roughly at R2, just a bit under last week's high. A beautifully ambiguous finish.

 

Today's action was "unexpected" only insofar as it was out-of-character for markets in this QE era, where strong trends almost never fade, let alone reverse hard, in the afternoon. But it was a tactically savvy close, given the uncertainty surrounding economic data to come this week.

[gosu 10]

Today's ES range was 20.5 which fits right in... We settled 1400.25 a key CLVN...

 

After today's action it seems a day of rest is in order... maybe an inside day... I know I need a day of rest after today...

 

It took me by surprise.. I got long right off the open, got some scales and exited my long at 1398.00 NVPOC... felt pretty good about it until it kept going... but that was my plan..

 

Saw one spot to get long against 1400.75 CLVN but took a pass because of risk... Twiddled my thumbs and then got short against 1409.50... with stop 2 ticks over MCHVN 1411.25...got stopped at HOD :crap:

 

Tried a long at just under IBH... ended up losing 2 ticks there. All together when the dust settled I had a small losing day... The main reason for the loses was not getting scales on my last 2 trades.. :helloooo: I try to get risk neutral asap...

 

Fortunately, while days like this are greed inspiring and challenge one's discipline, I got away unscathed... Many traders will chase this kind of day and pay the price for it.. The impulse to "not miss out" is very strong - and can be costly.

 

A little rotation might have been nice, though to get on... do you think?

 

Hope you all did ok..while getting a nice piece of days like this can be exciting and profitable, I suspect most Day traders lose $..maybe I'm biased - hope you guys banked some $...

 

Who would have thunk that an ISM report would fuel such a move? It was just time for the BO and the most difficult part of the entire morning was to accept it and do my job as a good partner.

 

It could have been more challenging had I been on the wrong side and not sidelined. I saw the continuation of yesterday's lateral at the cash open and began picturing breakfast at Hof's Hut. I see the ISM at 7 approaching and ES at lower range of the lateral; and I'm thinking BO south, FBO back into range, range bound into midday, so a nice breakfast ahead. The consequence was that I was caught flat footed on the BO north and entered the party late. But the last spurt going into midday on the 8:50 bar was unexpected and a joy to see. The retrace at the end of the bar was no concern at all, and I offered out at 11.25 as the bar completed. I could have made it a reversal order but I'm not as hardcore as I used to be.

 

Was this an especially difficult AM to trade? I don't think so, but it would have been fun to reverse out of the lateral had I been short going into the report. The 5m volumes ruled that out for me.

[roztom 10]

Who would have thunk that an ISM report would fuel such a move? It was just time for the BO and the most difficult part of the entire morning was to accept it and do my job as a good partner.

 

It could have been more challenging had I been on the wrong side and not sidelined. I saw the continuation of yesterday's lateral at the cash open and began picturing breakfast at Hof's Hut. I see the ISM at 7 approaching and ES at lower range of the lateral; and I'm thinking BO south, FBO back into range, range bound into midday, so a nice breakfast ahead. The consequence was that I was caught flat footed on the BO north and entered the party late. But the last spurt going into midday on the 8:50 bar was unexpected and a joy to see. The retrace at the end of the bar was no concern at all, and I offered out at 11.25 as the bar completed. I could have made it a reversal order but I'm not as hardcore as I used to be.

 

Was this an especially difficult AM to trade? I don't think so, but it would have been fun to reverse out of the lateral had I been short going into the report. The 5m volumes ruled that out for me.

 

I wish I knew what you were talking about but I'm glad it worked out ok for you...

[gosu 10]

I wish I knew what you were talking about but I'm glad it worked out ok for you...

 

Hi Tom,

 

Here's the Cliff's Notes version: Saw the lateral, was surprised by the breakout, entered long late, took the bonus at the end (of AM).

 

If it makes you feel any better, I don't know your acronyms and felt the same about your post. I did see that you thought today was difficult to trade for daytraders, and earlier joshdance posted that today the market was out to screw everyone. Regardless of P&Ls, I had a different assessment.

[roztom 10]

Hi Tom,

 

Here's the Cliff's Notes version: Saw the lateral, was surprised by the breakout, entered long late, took the bonus at the end (of AM).

 

If it makes you feel any better, I don't know your acronyms and felt the same about your post. I did see that you thought today was difficult to trade for daytraders, and earlier joshdance posted that today the market was out to screw everyone. Regardless of P&Ls, I had a different assessment.

 

Glad you had a good day. I am not a breakout trader, since it doesn't usually align wit my risk management... I am a continuation trader after a breakout which is why I commented that there really wasn't any rotation so I had no entry. Glad you had a set up to capitalize on yesterday..

[bakrob99 11]

I am a continuation trader after a breakout which is why I commented that there really wasn't any rotation so I had no entry. Glad you had a set up to capitalize on yesterday..

 

Market action since Jan 1 has been tough for traders looking for pullbacks. Once a move is underway, it keeps going having skipped past the traders who would be getting in on pullbacks, and using the fuel of the stops of the responsive traders to keep going.

 

IMO, you have to figure out a methid for getting in the trends that is different than "normal" market behaviour because, in this mareket, by the time a pullback happens the move is over.