Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

Also Peter is now teaching volume strip analysis which I tie into the HVN somewhat. Makes sense. Someone just committed a lot of money to the move. Maybe wise to go with them. I would love to be able to evaluate the quality of the money coming in at the time.

 

Evaluating the "quality" of money is impossible, IMO. Smart money, dumb money, is all a big distraction. The "smartest" money buying the ES may only be to hedge a much larger opposite position in another market. The intention of those putting the big bucks cannot be known, and it cannot be assumed that the goal is to actually have the market go in the direction of their position. All we can see is their activity via volume. Intentions are not know, and do not matter. Just my

[karoshiman 10]

I do have that tendency but do not do it as much as I used to.

 

Yesterday I was long and after scaling had a BE stop at 73. The market ticked to 71.75, and then began its move up. At that point I was waiting for a pullback to enter but the strength was so much that I just watched all day. Not saying it's good, but it's what I did.

 

 

Yes, after that 71.75 was no reasonable situation to get back in. At least you stayed disciplined and did not chase the price which is a good thing.

[joshdance 10]

I have taken a small short position here at 82.75 for a retest of 80, and if lucky, lower. I'm only giving it 5 ticks as it's a relatively low probability trade, but if it works out will be a nice trade.

 

This area (83ish) on the profile both today and yesterday has been quite important.

 

edit: will probably breakeven this if it comes back to entry at 82.75 ... oh well, won't get back to posting every trade, so good luck, silence on the airwaves from here.

Edited April 18, 2012 by joshdance

[karoshiman 10]

I have a short position too (82 though). Like our friend Will I expect a bigger move to come... not sure though whether this will be to the downside... ready to switch my position if we see higher prices

[clmacdougall 11]

I have taken a small short position here at 82.75 for a retest of 80, and if lucky, lower. I'm only giving it 5 ticks as it's a relatively low probability trade, but if it works out will be a nice trade.

 

This area (83ish) on the profile both today and yesterday has been quite important.

 

edit: will probably breakeven this if it comes back to entry at 82.75 ... oh well, won't get back to posting every trade, so good luck, silence on the airwaves from here.

 

Agree with you on the trade, am leaning against 83.50 but target is 78.25. Agree on low probability but right trade

[clmacdougall 11]

We are in the same trade for probably totally different reasons. But every once in awhile we overlap.

[joshdance 10]

We are in the same trade for probably totally different reasons. But every once in awhile we overlap.

 

My reason is to make money, I assume it's yours too!! :rofl: Kidding of course. Glad our paths cross in the market Actually we might not be far off in our reasons, I just mentioned part of my overall reason, primarily the reason for the location.

 

Took scale here at 80.50 ahead of my friend, the trend line, which may have enough people watching it to actually matter.

[karoshiman 10]

covered half at 79.75

[joshdance 10]

covered half at 79.75

 

also covered portion here, 1/3 left for me.

[karoshiman 10]

also covered portion here, 1/3 left for me.

 

curious how far it goes down...

[joshdance 10]

curious how far it goes down...

 

Hope says much further, eyeballs not so sure.

[karoshiman 10]

Hope says much further, eyeballs not so sure.

 

lol... yes, hope says something around 60...

 

eyeballs (& brain) still see the possibility for a strong up move...

 

EDIT: ... meant 50...

[karoshiman 10]

covered rest at 80.75... looked too strong... might re-enter later

[karoshiman 10]

long now at 82.25...

[joshdance 10]

covered rest at 80.75... looked too strong... might re-enter later

 

lol, this market is wild isn't it? I exited 82 on the last 1/3, still a good trade given the 2 and 3 points on the first 2/3.

[karoshiman 10]

 

lol, this market is wild isn't it? ...

 

 

 

it is

 

great upside potential now...

[joshdance 10]

it is

 

great upside potential now...

 

certainly is possible.... but this is the kind of day that loves to give false hope (like this last downside possibility). It's opex day in 2 days and we are in a classic "rebalance" after super strong trend day. Probability, IMO, goes with staying below yesterday's high. But as always... (see signature)

[joshdance 10]

This has held very well so far.. established small long position at 83, looking for 86 first .. only giving this 2 ticks to work.

[joshdance 10]

This has held very well so far.. established small long position at 83, looking for 86 first .. only giving this 2 ticks to work.

 

Took 85 instead, just ahead of the high. Let's see if we can get yesterday's high...?

[slick60 10]

Wish I could make a composite that was not all scrunched up. Need a huge screen for that. I have here a couple of snaps of the current auction long term as I see it from the low dating back to Oct 2011. Looks to me from the 2nd snap that it would be easier to go down than up right now and I would have to think a correction is quite possible for this last push up from 1136.00 on Nov 25-11. The 1277.00 area is a fibo retrace of 50% and 618 of this move up. How low will we go before higher is the big question I believe. I feel this market will go higher into Sept or Oct this year before FINALLY saying that it has had enough. No doubt there will be something at that time to act as a catalyst for the forever down move to come.

One step at a time - one profile at a time and make some money.

 

Good trading people

 

slick 60

[joshdance 10]

here you go slick, a skinnier version of your composite I just resized it, maybe that's not what you're looking for.

[joshdance 10]

Took 85 instead, just ahead of the high. Let's see if we can get yesterday's high...?

 

out at 84 on the 2nd portion, so flat now but may re-enter long again. Good job karo, way to take the long when you did. 1 tick of heat on this with a +2 and +1, can't beat the risk on these types of trades.

[joshdance 10]

Notice the dismal volume on the profile today for the 84-86 range, and compare it with this low volume area on the long term profile here. Has the market made it clear that is it rejecting this area and trades lower? Or not?

[karoshiman 10]

Notice the dismal volume on the profile today for the 84-86 range, and compare it with this low volume area on the long term profile here. Has the market made it clear that is it rejecting this area and trades lower? Or not?

 

I think this was a head fake move... it's going lower IMO...

 

sold half my long at 84, then got greedy and reentered higher... bad idea :doh: ... got out with a loss ... it's one thing being right and another taking a profit home :crap:

 

I'm short now for overnight from 79.75... "hoping" for my first scenario 50-ies...

 

EDIT: of course not the 50 overnight... but a nice move might still be possible overnight

[joshdance 10]

I'm short now for overnight from 79.75... "hoping" for my first scenario 50-ies...

 

EDIT: of course not the 50 overnight... but a nice move might still be possible overnight

 

I hope this works out for you, and I'm not saying anything to cause you to change your mind, just putting my view out there.

 

The attached chart shows a multi-day picture. Essentially, we are at support from last night, and a move down may be imminent, but it's a place where buyers may well be interested. I don't think the move down we saw at the close is the type of move that will have immediate continuation. I would expect 85 to be in play before way lower. Of course, I'm risking nothing in saying that, so I'm not a buyer here, but I rarely do overnight anyway.