Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well we've been up and down over the last week. I was still watching 63 as an area, but there was activity yesterday below there, contained by 60.75. Value over the past week and including yesterday is starting to develop a little more after not really being agreed upon. A possibilty is that it will become better defined before exploring new prices. I get the feeling, that money is being moved around here but not certain. I feel if this is the case, then we should become a little more orderly when it's complete.

 

I don't expecially like the 86.25 high or the 52.50 low and see them as "running out of fuel" in those areas. So my feeling is we could go either way or even both. I still feel a test of 92.50 NFP SOC is potentially critical and clearly we could reverse or continue from there. I don't know what today will bring, but where we open is always important to me. So it is a little early to be calling it. If we were to open now @~71.50, we'd be a little above the balance VPOC @66.50 but still within the "meat" of the developing value. This would indicate acceptance of these prices and may not provide immediate opportunity. On the other hand, when markets form value they end up "centering" on the high volume and that is frequently where the change in behaviour originates from. A break before the break if you like.

 

Above all, I'll see what the market does do to tell me where opportunity lies and hopefully bag more winners than losers ! An important note is that when the market is moving, yes you might catch an early move, but there's usually plenty of opportunity in the market to profit from.

 

[karoshiman 10]

Basically what I am saying is I feel bullish for tomorrow unless we see bad reports and was wondering how you guys felt.

 

Nikko

 

 

Hi Nikko,

 

Difficult to say right now.

 

I understand gosu's comment earlier that he looks for a strong downward movement (gosu, please correct me, if I'm wrong). I would agree here, if we take out yesterday's close. I would short here.

 

On the upside I see right now (globex session) potential to the 74/75 area, above that maybe to the 85 area for later today. However, the bigger downward movement can still come after that...

 

But then again, I am not good with my "longer-term" projections... lol

 

Also, this week is options expiry... markets behave sometimes strange during this week... at least from my perspective.

 

Regards,

k

 

EDIT: The most important news for today are out, I guess (Spanish bond auction demand... which was good and the German ZEW survey... above expectations). Today's other reports play only a role, if the released figures deviate A LOT from the expectations. Draghi's speech could have an impact.

 

Edited April 17, 2012 by karoshiman

[TheNegotiator 13]

Lots to be aware of right now. Eco releases, earnings reports, Euro Sov Debt yields (Spain but also Italy), opex week (as stated by karoshiman), North Korea, Obama on Oil markets later, blah blah blah.

 

So potentialy alot to be aware of

 

Btw for anyone who is interested, here is a nice little govt bond calendar:-

 

https://multimediafiles.kbcgroup.eu/ng/published/KBC/PDF/MARKTENZAAL/marktenzaal_pdf_weekly_KBC_Weekly_Government_Bond_Auction_Calendar_0900dfde8028b26b.pdf

 

From:-

 

https://www.kbcmerchantbanking.com/WPP/D9e01?t=~/wp_dealingroom

Edited April 17, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[karoshiman 10]

Looks like we are seeing the 80-ish area soon...

 

EDIT: very soon!

[karoshiman 10]

Basically what I am saying is I feel bullish for tomorrow unless we see bad reports and was wondering how you guys felt.

 

Nikko

 

Good call, Nikko!

[joshdance 10]

84 the best location to short so far today. Check out SPX, and profile for 4/12.

 

Good rejection below 84 .. should get a rotation here of some kind.

[Nikko 10]

* Thanks Karoshiman, good luck man!

 

* The Negotiator - That was a great write up! I think the volume indicator for the ask/bid is a great tool but for a day like today I tend to not concentrate so much on volume in general as we are going to have plenty of it. That being said I kept it simple with some support, resistance, trend lines and the speculation of reports. Sometimes it is just that simple. Volume was not that much of a concern for today.

 

I had some great executions this morning. I am still feeling bullish so let's see us test the 1400's and once we get there be careful!

 

Nikko

[slick60 10]

What kind of trades are we looking for while day trading the ES? How many points?

This is a HUGE thread and just ventured in. If I read the thousands of entries will I find some specific market profile trades in here. I am an old guy and don't think I will live long enough to read this whole thing.

Thanks

Appears we are in a trending type of session at present and should close near the highs for today. If we take out yesterday high then we will make an attack on the recent high in the near future.

 

slick60

[joshdance 10]

Appears we are in a trending type of session at present and should close near the highs for today. If we take out yesterday high then we will make an attack on the recent high in the near future.

 

You MUST be old, because we have already taken out yesterday's, Friday's, and Thursday's high! :rofl: Just kidding my friend, welcome to the thread.

[slick60 10]

You MUST be old, because we have already taken out yesterday's, Friday's, and Thursday's high! :rofl: Just kidding my friend, welcome to the thread.

 

Shit Josh, you're right. I was looking at the high of 2 days ago. And I am old, have cancer and am still trying.

 

slick

[slick60 10]

I apologize right out of the gate for using and showing a chart of mundane lagging indicators in this thread.

Today had a great start if your were out of bed for the London open in the weee hours of the morning. As I show in the charts things came together just right and kicked off this trend day that we are now seeing. I use the indicators in conjunction with market profile. One scratches the other's back. Profile does not lead all the time and neither do the indicators. They do meld together and give some pretty nice signals. I have been posting a lot of these in the forex forum under EURUSD et al thread.

Getting tired of missing all the good moves in currencies and thought I might venture into here to see what pebbles of wisdom I might reap for some day time trading.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/1d33eaed-fbc5-4081-bd73-d8888f4a1d01/2012-04-17_1335.png

Good trading everyone!

http://screencast.com/t/uqFSQAbKzVz0

slick60

[joshdance 10]

I will be looking for a reaction at 90 / 92.

[gosu 10]

I will be looking for a reaction at 90 / 92.

 

"Reaction" means what exactly?

[TheNegotiator 13]

92-93 is the area I've been talking about for the past week:-

 

[joshdance 10]

Then again, 94 looks interesting as well, based purely on price.

[joshdance 10]

"Reaction" means what exactly?

 

Unusually heavy or light volume, signs of buyers struggle. In short, something different from what we have seen all day long that would indicate sellers are more active than they have been.

 

Preferably, signs of rejection as evidenced by a sharp movement down in price.

[joshdance 10]

In the meantime, I will look to be a buyer. Yes, we are off of last week's high just here at 88.50, but it's not a strong enough rejection to make me think the buyers are quite done.

[Nikko 10]

I will be looking for a reaction at 90 / 92.

 

Well there should obviously be a big momentum pull either when when reaching near 1400, for someone not familiar with what is going on in the market I would recommend to call it a day as there will be some split second decisions coming up here shortly.

 

On a side note I personally am not looking to make big moves here as to me it feels as though we already should have made a decent profit for today as the set-up was clear and anything beyond this point will be a bit too emotional for me considering there is no reason for me to degrade the beautiful set-up for today with uncertainty as I do not feel as strongly as I did this morning. I still feel somewhat bullish but I think we need to relax unless your almost really know what is going to happen here shortly. A lot of volume with more then we can see!

 

Nikko

[gosu 10]

Unusually heavy or light volume, signs of buyers struggle. In short, something different from what we have seen all day long that would indicate sellers are more active than they have been.

 

Preferably, signs of rejection as evidenced by a sharp movement down in price.

 

So...a reaction can be purely volume based with prices continuing in the same direction or a sharp move in price in the opposite direction without regard to volume?

[Nikko 10]

I can not read my posts as they have to be moderated so I do not know exactly what I said but I don't want to come off as telling seasoned traders not to trade I was just generalizing my comment toward the newer traders...

 

Instead of worrying about riskier executions maybe you should relax and take notes so the next time a situation like today ( news, speculation, etc ) comes about you can do the same thing and compare, and in no time ( a year or two ) you will come up with your own good idea of what might happen and when adding what you've discovered with your daily routine you can now have a much higher advantage on similar situations! It's all about building a proper arsenal from the beginning. Confidence is a great tool to success. I can't give you my formula unless you look at 1-3-5-10-30-60-120 charts etc and even then you don't momentum trade the way I do, matter fact no one can trade the same really unless your a robot so that is why it is important to take good ideas and implement them into your particular strategy and come up with something that works for you and your emotions etc.

 

 

Good luck,

 

Nikko

[joshdance 10]

So...a reaction can be purely volume based with prices continuing in the same direction or a sharp move in price in the opposite direction without regard to volume?

 

Well, the impact of volume on price is really all volume is good for, so the market's reaction is the primary thing. If lots of volume traded in a narrow range, that would be significant, and need not be immediately followed by a sharp move in the opposite direction. Likewise, a move to new highs on very light volume would be significant, even if it moves "a few" ticks instead of none at all. These are just two examples, and may be significant or not to different people.

[gosu 10]

It's just another trend day, and they have been occurring more frequently as of late. The most recent analog to today is 4/12 last Thursday.

[gosu 10]

Well, the impact of volume on price is really all volume is good for, so the market's reaction is the primary thing. If lots of volume traded in a narrow range, that would be significant, and need not be immediately followed by a sharp move in the opposite direction. Likewise, a move to new highs on very light volume would be significant, even if it moves "a few" ticks instead of none at all. These are just two examples, and may be significant or not to different people.

 

OK. But these are things that can happen at any price. I was just curious what you meant by "reaction" in reference to 90/92.

[Nikko 10]

At the end of the day guys we all trade so different it would be hard for everything to be understood all the time but I too did not understand what was meant by " reaction " except for the fact of the volume increase in those areas.

 

Anyway we just need to stay positive and help each other as I'm sure he knew what he meant by " reaction " but I'm not saying it is any of you or anything but in all honesty I see a lot of role playing on these forums. The best we can do is filter out the trolls and for those trading as a business or primary income to come together and add to the already growing community as for every troll, I do see good knowledge that has already helped me greatly.

 

Feel free to add me as a friend if you plan on sticking around for awhile and I will try to do the same. I am new but if your in it for expanding your arsenal while contributing positive / helpful comments we will get along great. I'm not going to be able to mark my every execution but feel it could be nothing but beneficial to share my knowledge while hearing what others have to say besides my usual trader friends.

 

Nice to meet you all,

 

Nikko

[TheNegotiator 13]

Anyone know of any codes for spanish debt (probs 10yr is best) for DTN?