Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

It looks fishy at 71 initially so I'm flat, and may look to re-enter short later.. I'm also dead tired so I may just go back to sleep, which I never do.

[karoshiman 10]

Lots of visitors here the last couple of days I notice, hope some of you will jump in and post!

 

Hi Josh,

 

That's a good point. I was about to post to you guys that I feel sorry about not posting but just reading your great thread sometimes, as it looks like I'm taking advantage of you guys without giving something back

 

This is not intended. One reason is, that I am VERY focused on the price action and get distracted by posting. Sometimes I'm in and out of trades literally within seconds. I'm hardly even able to read everything you post here due to this, as some setups come so fast without a heads-up (sometimes I feel like it's a computer game... with me just hitting the buttons lightning-fast... lol).

 

But I'd like to check this thread anyway mainly for my "longer-term" positions or my market bias, and mainly if I'm wrong with my direction... like yesterday, for instance :crap:

 

A further point is, that I have no clue at all about your methodology and terminology (VPOC, etc. ). I'm just interested to see your directional bias sometimes (when I'm obviously wrong) and some key areas you look at. But I don't use the info for my trades in any way (not a good idea, if I don't understand your methodology)... it's just curiosity or my emotional side looking for some comfort...

 

Today, I've expected a downmove in the morning session, but I'm looking for buying opportunities... maybe in the afternoon session... but as you know... ACH

 

Regards,

k

[TheNegotiator 13]

A further point is, that I have no clue at all about your methodology and terminology (VPOC, etc. ). I'm just interested to see your directional bias sometimes (when I'm obviously wrong) and some key areas you look at. But I don't use the info for my trades in any way (not a good idea, if I don't understand your methodology)... it's just curiosity or my emotional side looking for some comfort...

 

VPOC = Volume Point of Control = most traded single price in selected timeframe (usually day)

 

Anything else, just ask!

Edited April 13, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[joshdance 10]

Hi Josh,

 

That's a good point. I was about to post to you guys that I feel sorry about not posting but just reading your great thread sometimes, as it looks like I'm taking advantage of you guys without giving something back

 

This is not intended. One reason is, that I am VERY focused on the price action and get distracted by posting. Sometimes I'm in and out of trades literally within seconds. I'm hardly even able to read everything you post here due to this, as some setups come so fast without a heads-up (sometimes I feel like it's a computer game... with me just hitting the buttons lightning-fast... lol).

 

Understood karoshiman -- I too get distracted sometimes so I understand. I only meant what I said as an invitation for anyone who reads to feel free to post; 90% of the material here is posted by about 4 or 5 people, so it may not seem to be a welcoming environment if one is reading from the outside. I intended to extend an invitation to anyone reading to feel free to participate, if they are inclined to do so, and not feel like it's a clique or closed type of group. N is the creator of this thread and I know he intends it to be an open environment.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's a Josh special

 

[karoshiman 10]

VPOC = Volume Point of Control = most traded single price in selected timeframe (usually day)

 

Anything else, just ask!

 

Thank you, N!

 

Is it the same as VWAP?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thank you, N!

 

Is it the same as VWAP?

 

No. VWAP = Volume Weighted Average Price.

 

jperl did a good series on this topic here:-

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-profile/4803-trading-market-statistics-links.html

[joshdance 10]

Thank you, N!

 

Is it the same as VWAP?

 

The VPOC is the statistical mode of the volume-weighted distribution. The VWAP is the statistical mean of the same distribution. They are both typically interpreted as a way to measure "value," they just do it in different ways.

 

My thought here is that if it can hold 70 on a retest, I may be looking long. Maybe.

[joshdance 10]

Here's a Josh special

 

My favorite, you shouldn't have! :pc guru:

 

I've opened a 1/3 long here at 70. Only a point or so of risk, as this is a low probability attempt but about as high probability of a long as I have seen so far today.

[TheNegotiator 13]

My thought here is that if it can hold 70 on a retest, I may be looking long. Maybe.

 

Don't get suckered into that game though imo Josh. The opening was again OD/OTD so confident and down. It's normally better imo on days with OD/OTD opening types to let it reverse properly before considering a counter trade. So if the standard rotation has been around 3pts, I'd want to see 4+ at least before I'd start to think about a long position.

[TheNegotiator 13]

lol 3.75 pts there !

[joshdance 10]

I've opened a 1/3 long here at 70.

 

I'll either breakeven at 70, or be out at 74, no risk at this point.

 

EDIT: out at 70 BE, no harm done, reasonable attempt IMO, and may try another long if it looks right.

[TheNegotiator 13]

lol 3.75 pts there !

 

test of 70's now might be good if it were to hold...

[joshdance 10]

Don't get suckered into that game though imo Josh. The opening was again OD/OTD so confident and down. It's normally better imo on days with OD/OTD opening types to let it reverse properly before considering a counter trade. So if the standard rotation has been around 3pts, I'd want to see 4+ at least before I'd start to think about a long position.

 

Good advice I think in general -- is that how you quantify (to some degree) your prospects at at countertrend trade? Opening type, and following activity?

[joshdance 10]

As the 70 failed to hold, I have shorted 1/3 position 70 now, with 1 point of risk. More down to come seems more likely at this point. But.. (see sig)

 

EDIT: oh well, it was worth a try. Had a short scalp that netted a point after my major trade today so I consider it "house money" although I know it's not really the reality.

Edited April 13, 2012 by joshdance

[joshdance 10]

It should not be trading back down here IMO so I have re-shorted 70.75, again small position and tiny stop.. won't post anymore, too much :spam: for you guys to read. Will look to bank some at 66 if this is indeed a move down coming. As we have a HL though, it's possible we have seen the LOD. But it does not feel that way. Will add one on a break below 69 if it happens.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Good advice I think in general -- is that how you quantify (to some degree) your prospects at at countertrend trade? Opening type, and following activity?

 

Decelerating cumulative delta is another one. But even so, it could be just a temporary reversal/consolidation. It's important to then watch for subsequent rotations further in that direction. Plus I always want to see if any important price level has been reached.

 

I'm thinking they might try for 73-74.50 myself so long as 72.25 is taken. Then we'll have to see how it goes on a move lower.

 

Sometimes, after a few losing days it's better to just take a decent profit for your own confidence. Not that you can't or won't make more. Just that if you lose, you'd dislocate a leg due to how much you'd be kicking yourself in your arse. Just a thought and not advice. Everyone's an individual and knows their exact own situation. So it's you(one) who is in the best position to make such a call.

[joshdance 10]

Sometimes, after a few losing days it's better to just take a decent profit for your own confidence. Not that you can't or won't make more. Just that if you lose, you'd dislocate a leg due to how much you'd be kicking yourself in your arse. Just a thought and not advice. Everyone's an individual and knows their exact own situation. So it's you(one) who is in the best position to make such a call.

 

Indeed--I'm monitoring my mental state and it's all good. I got a good 5 points earlier on a full position, plus another scalp, and a small loss here, so if I lose small again on a small position it's not a great mental blow. It's losing when I'm loaded up, or losing big in general, that creates that poor mental state that is tough to rebound from.

[joshdance 10]

I'm thinking they might try for 73-74.50 myself so long as 72.25 is taken. Then we'll have to see how it goes on a move lower.

 

Nice call - I reversed my short for a 1.25 point loss, and 74 was my target, just above vwap and high vol today. I initially was going to try to scale one at 74, and see if I could hold the other for LVN at 76, but the way it struggled breaking out of 72, I had to scale half at 73, so I'm flat again.

 

Hindsight (the best trading tool of all) makes it clear that my premise for a long was correct, except that there was excess to 69, instead of 70 holding. But, 69 seems to be a "poor low."

 

BB with speech at 1pm, and it looks to feature commentary on monetary policy, perhaps recent views on it, so it may be a speech worth tuning in to listen to.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Hindsight (the best trading tool of all) makes it clear that my premise for a long was correct, except that there was excess to 69, instead of 70 holding. But, 69 seems to be a "poor low."

 

Being right and being right at the right time and being right at the right time for a profit are not all the same things unfortunately :doh:

[joshdance 10]

Being right and being right at the right time and being right at the right time for a profit are not all the same things unfortunately :doh:

 

indeed! That's one reason I'm kind of against visual historical "back testing" -- A 5 year old could pick a great place to buy or sell given more information to the right than what is available in a live situation. The hard part is taking the risk, at the time, and managing the risk through the trade, and exiting, at the time.

[roztom 10]

Greetings: Seems like you guys had some nice moves.. I got a nice piece of the short this morning and hve been sitting back..only other action was to scalp for a rotation down to bottom of DVAL..missed 2nd scale by 1 -tick...dem bums..

 

I am focusing on some trade management issues that I have not satisfactorily resolved so I need to be here 100% since I can not multi-task too well... I will be checking in to see how you all are doing...

[karoshiman 10]

 

...

 

Today, I've expected a downmove in the morning session, but I'm looking for buying opportunities... maybe in the afternoon session... but as you know... ACH

 

...

 

 

Looks like it's happening now...

[joshdance 10]

The shape of the profile looks a bit to the short side given the way it's responding to it now at 72.50 .. I am short 72.50 with an add short at 74.25

[karoshiman 10]

The shape of the profile looks a bit to the short side given the way it's responding to it now at 72.50 .. I am short 72.50 with an add short at 74.25

 

 

Jeez... I am long 73 on average :doh: ... expecting a rally into the close... though a shake-out of weak longs can happen before...