Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

EU Summit fun day today! I can't pretend I'm likely to be trading this as I would normally if at all. Take a look at the thread I just started for ideas why :)

 

Crunch Point Trading

 

Anyway, what I am looking out for is what the auction does, where/if it fails and what the strength of any moves are.(oh and of course what the outcome of the summit is :o) I'm kinda expecting for information to come through to some extent throughout the day with some major announcement later on. Not certain though.

 

Anyway, the chart today I wanted to outline the major points it could test if there are some big moves. Bear in mind that we've seen some pretty big ranges in the last few months, with the biggest coming on 9th August with whopping 78.50point range! There have been quite a few 40-50 point ranges in between too. Right now we're at 1232.00 but I'd also like to see what the open is. So we could look at targets 25/50/75 points away. I'm not saying these targets will be met but often on strong moves after these sorts of events, there is an overall market price goal.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=26515&stc=1&d=1319633782

Widetargets.thumb.JPG.f3373f48c38cf4eeb99ca3120df3caa2.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For convenience here are the remaining items for today:

 

1345 GMT (9:45 EDT): Head of EU task force on Greece Horst Reichenbach holds press conference after meeting with Bank of Greece Governor George Provopoulos.

 

1515-1545 GMT (11:15 EDT): Arrival of members of the European Council for summit meetings in Brussels.

 

1600-1700 GMT (4:00 PM EDT): EU leaders working session followed by euro-zone summit.

 

1715 GMT: Working dinner to be followed by press conference by the president of the European Council and the president of the European Commission. National briefings in the press center.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks as though the markets are strong today with a gap up from the close at 1238 of over 30 points. We'll have to see how it handles the 1275-75.50 to see if it'll power up on RTH open. More description is in the chart below.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=26526&stc=1&d=1319722059

posteusummit.thumb.JPG.a4d096f1491a0724769d8c845cfccc45.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those who took the time to look at the chart(:)) ES very much playing out what was suggested. Move down was strong ish but not exceptional. Stopped so far just short of 1260.25 and proceeded to move back to midpoint. Nice trade.

 

Take a look at the cumulative delta on a 3 min chart. Look how flat it was at the bottom.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi everyone! Hope all had a good weekend and those in the US with snow weren't too badly affected. The idea is to see if there is a reaction either at or around the high volume on the long term profile at 1266.50 or maybe Thurs low then see if the next few days can see a test of 1300/1302.75 high vol.

 

Here's my chart:-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=26546&stc=1&d=1320068009

oldarea.thumb.JPG.46596d6a96cc382f1ac6432700b27db0.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because of MF Global's bankruptcy, volume is abnormally low. CNBC reporting traders getting locked out of their accounts. Feels like the day before a major holiday. Looks like I'll be going out for a nice long breakfast at Hof's Hut.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What kind of chart is that? I'm assuming that's volume on the right side but you said that the market opened at the high volume mark. That mark looks a few points higher, and, the market hadn't been open yet so how did all those volume prints get established? Are those from overnight or previous days? Can you direct me to a site or tutorial on how to read and use them? I like the volume overlay like that.

 

Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What kind of chart is that? I'm assuming that's volume on the right side but you said that the market opened at the high volume mark. That mark looks a few points higher, and, the market hadn't been open yet so how did all those volume prints get established? Are those from overnight or previous days? Can you direct me to a site or tutorial on how to read and use them? I like the volume overlay like that.

 

Thanks.

 

It's a standard candlestick with a volume profile study attached to it. The X I marked it up the long term profile (green) with was where the RTH session opened exactly in this case. 1266.50. The long term profile has the data from the entire move from the 2009 low, back adjusted for the spread between contracts. (i.e. the contract is a continuation contract for the ES). If you want to learn things, stick around here!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I hope everyone is okay with their accounts. I am guessing not though from a statistical point of view. The MF Global issue seems to be bigger than was first thought with some clients cash being, well should we say not where it should be. To those who don't have access to their accounts I hope everything works out for you soon.

 

Someone Is Going To Jail For This: MF Global Caught Stealing Hundreds Of Millions From Customers? | ZeroHedge

 

As far of trading goes, I will certainly be wary of the market. Things tend to be somewhat unpredictable when events of this nature are in focus. It's possible for example, that the market is not doing much one minute, the next it shoots off in one direction, then the next it stops dead. Behaviour MAY be erratic. Part of all our jobs as traders is to properly judge current conditions of the market and appropriately assign risk. It might be a sensible idea to at the very least adjust size to account for the risk involved.

 

Think about this. If a number of accounts all of a sudden get unlocked with multiple offside positions which haven't been possible to fully hedge, what's going to happen? They'll have to liquidate as soon as is reasonable. Possibly immediately. The likelihood in this case if they HAVE to liquidate is that there will be a disregard for any levels. They will just buy/sell until they are flat.

 

IF this scenario were to play out and I'm not suggesting I am certain it will, even though behaviour could be erratic or at the very least not the normal type of trading you see, it is still fundamentally an auction. Buyers will keep buying until either there are no buyers left or there is a strong reaction from sellers. Sellers will keep selling until either there are no sellers left or there is a strong reaction from buyers. The motivations of the buyers/sellers may be different but it is still an auction. When price moves quickly away from perceived value, there tend to be certain participants looking for a bargin(long or short). It may be that value then moves towards price, but basically price tends to move too far in these sorts of circumstances. My point is, if the market does move strongly in one direction or the other, don't be surprised if there is a strong counter move which follows.

 

Another point to be aware of is that with all the links MF has in the markets and the client money issue, there could well be important announcements/revelations throughout the day. So keep you ear to the ground.

 

(Oh yeah and there's still the EU sovereign debt issue)

Edited by TheNegotiator

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Okay well all very sound advice

 

So far this evening markets are acting about as we might expect. Selling on the bad news that Greece will hold a referendum on the plan to bail them out......This is perceived as "negative" in that if the Greek citizens decide to vote the plan down, they will be back to square one..and the delay will likely cause a disorderly default, possibly leading to Greece's abandonment of the Euro (at the extreme)....

 

What I have noticed is that the scheduling of the referedum is likely to put off any additional action until after Christmas....that may be a good thing for the Greek Prime Minister who is under fire for putting in an austerity program that is decimating Greek civil society...In other words the gentleman is trying to save his ass.

 

As regards MFGlobal, we now know that money is missing from segragated accounts and this is like pouring gasoline on the fire....what could have been resolved quietly and simply is going to take time while the SEC auditors find that money and then move to indict people if it is warranted. Of course it is always possible that the problem is sloppy bookkeeping but only time will tell.

 

This evening markets have declined in an orderly fashion, making it relatively easy to get on board the short bus. All you had to do was find a place to get short and hold on....My training says we look for a reversal now (at 4am) as I have pointed out before...this the time based pivot for my system to go long so I am trading around a base position looking to generate a few bucks here and there....

 

So far no problems executing however around the midnight hour I did have an interesting moment as my automated update program decided to let Microsoft do some housekeeping and shut me down.....hah....fortunately my software hooked me back up to my positions without much delay....

 

Just another day in paradise.

 

Good luck everyone

5aa710b138e5c_TonightsGlobexScreen.thumb.PNG.64743fc72ab6d5948ef6ca4f39bb7b4c.PNG

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You must've been pretty pissed off though Steve! Glad it didn't cause you any major problem. The idea I discussed is just a possible. I mention it because it's the kind of thing if not looked at can really put a big dent in your account (and clearly some do very well out of it too). The DAX move looks pretty orderly so far agreed. Would be pretty nice to have got on that one and by the looks of it, it wasn't too difficult. But I wouldn't automatically think that'll follow through into the RTH ES session. Clearly lower liquidity was present during most of yesterday and when there is less liquidity and people need to do business, markets move.

 

I did a quick study to show relative ES volume between the last hour of NYSE(plus the extra 15mins) and the rest of the session.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=26555&stc=1&d=1320148794

 

We're seeing more European news right now, not exactly instilling markets with confidence.

LastNYSEhourVSbefore.thumb.JPG.2ac19516f3a915c757a3f4cc9c3a5c2f.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Good call Negotiator on the volatility...

 

Yeah I think there's a good chance that the market will be moving aggressively at the very least. Remember there's ISM today and more importantly NFPs on Friday to be thrown into the mix. There's likely to be a substantial gap on open too. But we have to trade what we see not what we think :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the primary issue on the open is the re-pricing of risk if Greek citizens do not ratify the bailout....(that is the worst case, and it is generally anticipated)

 

Asian and German markets re-priced this evening as did much of Europe. German Bunds will continue to see quite a move as will the US treasuries. There could be some forced selling in the bonds as margin calls get activated later in the day (about 10:30am PST).

 

I suspect the open will continue the move down until after the report release. depending on that release we may see a bump up and then continuation down to the new risk level.

 

I continue to be short the market until they make me pay up

 

Good luck folks\

Steve

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another nice 1230 reversal, and like the previous one, it occurred about 6 minutes early....but hey no one's perfect.

 

You know the interesting thing about these "undocumented" reversals is.....that they work just as well as those are "documented" (the result of an indicator).....they seem to happen often enough to be tradable and the money you make spends just the same way....

 

 

Best of luck everyone...

5aa710b16d7d5_Another1230reversal.thumb.PNG.e2aa382f61551561c06dbcc68d2d3c31.PNG

Edited by steve46

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well the scenario didn't play out yesterday but we did see some responsive buying, then balancing. Not unsurprising either really. FOMC later after strong ADP figs(pinch of salt probably required). We are going to open in purgatory by the looks of things. Gap to the upside at 1246.50 and a gap to the downside at 1224.00. Open might be interesting!

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=26572&stc=1&d=1320240146

whereisvalue.thumb.JPG.124148a7b496fda0dadbe65b87964ecc.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looks like a good one Steve! Would you say it's more or less prevalent on certain types of day or is the "cleanup" trade something which occurs regardless?

 

The imbalances depend on the high touch market and market conditions...so it is more likely to happen at the tail end of a trend day. Generally speaking if the high touch desks have a lot of business to do, they will be motivated to move size near the end of the day, but before close of cash. That is why the trade occurs at around 1230 hours ET (US time)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.