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Greetings: Hope everyone had a good holiday. I was traveling yesterday... Loking at yesterdays action was not suprising though trading it I can't say... hindsight and all. One hting that was high probability was that the late sellers would get stuffed since the obviously play is almost always obviously wrong easy $ - sure..

 

SO after absorboing selling on the open the long side was the way to play as the shorts got squeezed... the was a lot of room above us to rotate without changing the bearish structure...

 

the sell-offin the close was evidence that we only had responsive buying yesterday.

 

Looking at this it appears we will either continue on the downside or at lerast test that important low made Friday morning GBX & probably take it out... When? Otherwise chop...

 

ACH right...

 

Just :2c:

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This is just one idea and we have to monitor for activity and be responsible for our own trading choices. I'm not recommending it and have several scenarios myself.

 

Considering that we were probably expecting a selloff anyway, both yesterday and overnight, did we really do such a great job? Well, maybe not. First off we hardly tested lower, although I would note that the low wasn't at a particularly significant location imho. We did sell hard into close but it kind of rolled over rather than rejected, before it went into selling mode. In the end it didn't even make new lows though (I believe the RTH day candle is called a gravestone and often does occur at or near a bottom). Overnight we haven't had a continuation to the downside from that important 82.50 upper balance marker price. We've just balanced within Monday's range.

 

You could argue that the market was like this due to holiday related inactivity, yet Europe hasn't reacted so far today.

 

So one possibility is that we are not ready to correct further and it could be a chance to secure a good long location. A test down to levels such as 71.75 or 70.50 might be interesting. Of course subsequent reversal action would have to be watched and if it could break back into Monday and hold, we could get a rally.

 

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This is just one idea and we have to monitor for activity and be responsible for our own trading choices. I'm not recommending it and have several scenarios myself.

 

Considering that we were probably expecting a selloff anyway, both yesterday and overnight, did we really do such a great job? Well, maybe not. First off we hardly tested lower, although I would note that the low wasn't at a particularly significant location imho. We did sell hard into close but it kind of rolled over rather than rejected, before it went into selling mode. In the end it didn't even make new lows though (I believe the RTH day candle is called a gravestone and often does occur at or near a bottom). Overnight we haven't had a continuation to the downside from that important 82.50 upper balance marker price. We've just balanced within Monday's range.

 

You could argue that the market was like this due to holiday related inactivity, yet Europe hasn't reacted so far today.

 

So one possibility is that we are not ready to correct further and it could be a chance to secure a good long location. A test down to levels such as 71.75 or 70.50 might be interesting. Of course subsequent reversal action would have to be watched and if it could break back into Monday and hold, we could get a rally.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=28418&stc=1&d=1334062538

 

agree: The short side while waving a flag to jump on the wagon is IMHO where many could get the shaft..why? It is an obvious play.On the other side...yesterday was the obvious day to fry the late shorts so today "might" continue down no clue.

 

I have been on sell signals today coming out of GBX but unless we rotate up I don't have a "SET UP." (Josh) and will have to wait... We might just consolidate ahead of earnings...I am going to be trading 2/3 of usual package today unless there is evidence of signifigent OTF activity...

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Can we have a meaningful drop (from here) with AAPL making new all-time highs?

 

Not meant as a rhetorical question. But...

 

NQ is stronger than ES in general at the moment. AAPL is nasdaq listed I believe. So NQ could hold up a over ES, but I'd think that we'd need to have all the indices moving down to get a decent drop.

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NQ is stronger than ES in general at the moment. AAPL is nasdaq listed I believe. So NQ could hold up a over ES, but I'd think that we'd need to have all the indices moving down to get a decent drop.

 

If you took APPL out of the NQ the actuall gain would be about 5% for last qtr.. It is distorting the Inx..not sure if it is relevant.. but it sure looks like the public is chasing a comet..

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If we are going to reject that lower balance, I wouldn't really want to see a foray too far into it. I would think somewhere around 65 balance vpoc would be the lower limit to signal that we aren't necessarily going to accept/explore lower prices.

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If we are going to reject that lower balance, I wouldn't really want to see a foray too far into it. I would think somewhere around 65 balance vpoc would be the lower limit to signal that we aren't necessarily going to accept/explore lower prices.

 

Agree.. 62.00 HVN looks like a drop dead dividing line...

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By the way, I'll just say that I was totally hypnotized as the market designed -- I was looking to short, but was looking to do it at 79.50 -- I thought there was a bit more upside, hence my long. My original thought was short, but the location did not match what I expected, so I fell into the trap... small loss but I was dead wrong on this one.

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numbers in 1min .

 

Wish I had full package on..but I had that bad location..so it was just as well... Took a point ona scale and did not scale at 72.50 which would typically be my next scale point... targeting 67 - 68.00 but might be a reach unless we get RE ... :confused:

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Here is where I spin a bit... TO scale against 72.50 looking for rotation or just hold and then add on rotation... ?? I don't have a definitive answer for that since I don't know if or how far market might rotate - a conundrum... especially with my location so I will see how it develops... just holding at the moment tgartget NVPOC 67.50.

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So we're either going to get a ORR (reject reverse from high) or an OAIR (open auction in range) if it gets back above 73.25 and holds.

 

74.75 looks like current line in the sand.imho current low vol area and seperation in distributions.. :2c:

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Have you guys drawn any conclusions about which is more signifigent? CLVN or NVPOC's?

 

I "assume" it it CLVN's since they are low vol vs NVPOC's. What are your thoughts?

 

BTW: Do you guys show a 69.25 CLVN?

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74.75 looks like current line in the sand.imho current low vol area and seperation in distributions.. :2c:

 

Maybe, but initially I want it above yesterday's low which was also the first test low today. I would think for a continuation trade that might be a good location otherwise.

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