Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[joshdance 10]

nice job reversing tom, takes a good trader to do that...

 

Here is a profile from recent lows of 86 to peak of 18 yesterday ... could 1401 - 1403 be a good target here, to initiate longs from? We will see.

[roztom 10]

I have scaled some with last sc for in front of single 1404.75..missed it... so sitting B/E on last... low so far 05.25..wish I didn't try those longs... :crap:

 

I made an error on the long side: When we took the IBH that was the tip-off thie long side was out... My "unconscious competent" spoke to me I recognized it and then my Conscious incompetent took the long... :doh: My brain was in a different mode...

 

I need a cattle prod... that puts my day into a lot of nothing when I was cruising earlier... :helloooo:

Edited April 3, 2012 by roztom

[roztom 10]

I'm not saying this is going to happen but I "think" we could see yesterdays LOD or 94.50 again... not suggesting anyone handle it that way... long-shots all around...that is just a measuring objective off 15m archaic bars...

 

I will probably get stopped out of my last shorts B/E before that wud happen..

[joshdance 10]

I made an error on the long side: When we took the IBH that was the tip-off thie long side was out... My "unconscious competent" spoke to me I recognized it and then my Conscious incompetent took the long... :doh: My brain was in a different mode...

 

I think this is simply your hindsight bias talking, Tom -- you are looking for reasons why the long didn't work, and how you could have prevented it, how you could have known that it was the wrong trade. I'm not crazy about the location of the long, but given the day so far I think it was a reasonable premise. Certainly we can improve our approach, methodologies, etc., but looking for every trade to be right, and to squeeze every last tick out of everything, will cause more harm than good IMO. Just my

[roztom 10]

I think this is simply your hindsight bias talking, Tom -- you are looking for reasons why the long didn't work, and how you could have prevented it, how you could have known that it was the wrong trade. I'm not crazy about the location of the long, but given the day so far I think it was a reasonable premise. Certainly we can improve our approach, methodologies, etc., but looking for every trade to be right, and to squeeze every last tick out of everything, will cause more harm than good IMO. Just my

 

Actually Josh..I accept losses ok but my observation of the violation of yesterdays IBH happened before I initiated the long trades... That is a trading error..not in hindsight but in foresight... When a key IBH is violated especially given yesterdays freight train up then there is a problem... That tells me the only way to be is short - at least at that time..

 

My error was that I recognized it. (not an error)

I traded against the market generated information... (that was the error - all mine)

 

My mind was still holding on to rotaional day when we went Neutral.

I was putting a long on for the rotation but the IBH violation "should" have had me off the longs and go with the short..

 

When I recognized MY error - I got reoriented to the short.. Unfortunately my trade location was not great so I am now out but the structure says we are headed South.. but until FOMC is over it wouldn't matter.. It will be interesting to see if we actually do hit those outside targets below.. Personally I wouldn't be on it after yesterdays move.. but ACH..

 

Of course with FOMC I'd be out anyway... Those longs did put my day into poop..I am now down slightly for the day after being up... :crap:

[joshdance 10]

I see, Tom. With regard to a prior IB high or low, what significance do you feel it has today? Rather, why do you feel it is significant?

[roztom 10]

I see, Tom. With regard to a prior IB high or low, what significance do you feel it has today? Rather, why do you feel it is significant?

 

When you have initiating OTF activity that is when we break out of the initial balance..when the IB is tipped over with OTF activity it is a sign of urgency, etc. (Yesterday) The was also a single and Micro lvn at the IBH..all saying that there was heavy buying there...

 

That IBH should have been defended.. give or take a few ticks and been rejected... H period today went too far compared to the RE up top..imho...so there was trouble for the longs... If you add it up the selling was stronger than the buying..plus the Delta couldn't get any legs down there...

 

All of it was bearish... Key though as a stand alone the violation of IBH... that was Key support... It is possible this will break all the way down to 94.00 ish or yest lod..but that is "illogical." The chart suggests that but I am just going to wait & see what gives..ACH on FOMC day as you know..

Edited April 3, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

All of it was bearish... Key though as a stand alone the violation of IBH... that was Key support... It is possible this will break all the way down to 94.00 ish or yest lod..but that is "illogical." The chart suggests that but I am just going to wait & see what gives..

 

From a look at the delta and volume in general yesterday, it appears to me that the REAL buying started from 01, and then again from 05. In other words, I do not see the clock ticking to 10:30 significantly altering when the OTF became active yesterday. I will stay bullish all the way down to 01, all depending of course on how the market reacts at that level if it gets there, as well as what the fed actually says.

 

 

ACH on FOMC day as you know..

 

Sometimes like a rodeo! Ride 'em cowboy! :fight:

[roztom 10]

From a look at the delta and volume in general yesterday, it appears to me that the REAL buying started from 01, and then again from 05. In other words, I do not see the clock ticking to 10:30 significantly altering when the OTF became active yesterday. I will stay bullish all the way down to 01, all depending of course on how the market reacts at that level if it gets there, as well as what the fed actually says.

 

 

 

 

Sometimes like a rodeo! Ride 'em cowboy! :fight:

 

I actually see 04.00 as the key number there is a single there and the first singles in a move have the most value... imho... however the IBH is a reference point and it is signifigent but your mileage will vary... we really shouldn't have built any acceptance in there...

[joshdance 10]

"no need to ease unless growth slows" .. hello sell button

[joshdance 10]

first target of 03.75 reached

holding other half for 02, stop BE (06)

[roztom 10]

s. 6.25.. cover 4.50, 2.75

[joshdance 10]

first target of 03.75 reached

holding other half for 02, stop BE (06)

 

done on both targets.. not ready to buy yet

 

edit: you know it's a f-d up market when it responds to strong economic growth this way

[roztom 10]

Yest LOD & 94.50 possible..darn chart projected it per my prev posts GRRR..

 

I'm ok... got my day back ...

[joshdance 10]

No buy ready yet .... could the market receive this as a wake up call and realize, oh wow, up 12% in one quarter and the Fed will not keep giving us our drugs... "maybe I shouldn't buy the f'ing dip"...

 

EDIT: reshorted 03.75 but will watch it closely

[joshdance 10]

EDIT: reshorted 03.75 but will watch it closely

 

Hanging in here, and targeting 1397, and will leave half for a very optimistic 90

 

Market will try to buy 97s I'm sure if this falls through, but solid support closer to 87

 

All of that is negated if this support here holds though.. but in my view this is kind of the line in the sand for bulls. If bulls hold here and get the buying going, I guess 1413s could find sellers, but ultimately I see no reason for anything other than new highs (not today) if this level here (1401) holds.

 

EDIT: If this can't get going and this does indeed hold, I will look to buy, which was originally my plan anyway as in an earlier post, I mentioned I would remain bullish until 1401-1403.

[roztom 10]

s 4.25 against mlvn 1405.00

[joshdance 10]

Hanging in here, and targeting 1397, and will leave half for a very optimistic 90

 

possibly foolish, I scaled half off at 02, but I think it was the right thing to do given the circumstances. I don't like the way it bounced up from there. Stop is 04 on the other half... not confident in a long quite yet, but not as confident in a short as earlier. Either way, guaranteed +1.5 on the trade, even if stopped out.

[roztom 10]

Projecting 97.50 - 94.50 BUT I am targeting just ahead of yest LOD stop B/E... ...got to (don't got to anything) get the "cheap suits" out IMHO..

[joshdance 10]

It's behaving like it really wants down...

 

edit 2:42: out at 1400.25 ... pretty confident y-low will be taken out but just in case...

[roztom 10]

YOu guys see why the 1405.00 was the place for continuation or add?

 

Edit: I am flat for the moment...

Edited April 3, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

YOu guys see why the 1405.00 was the place for continuation or add?

 

Edit: I am flat for the moment...

 

Well, after the break of LOD, 1405 was rejected, and so given that it was the top of the low volume prices before we get back up into balance. Also, from 09.50, just prior to news, down to the bottom swing, 00.50, 1405 is 50% to the tick. Many in the market seem to recognize the significance of a 50% retracement. I pay a lot of attention to it. Much more than fibonacci. On a S-turned-R note, 1405 is also the pullback level yesterday before it really got going, and a tick below the prior LOD today, 05.25.

 

Any number of factors could potentially give significance to that price in the minds of market participants.

 

The reasons above are part of what allowed me to stay short from 03.75, without too much fear, and thus I placed my stop at 06.25 to give it room.

[roztom 10]

Well, after the break of LOD, 1405 was rejected, and so given that it was the top of the low volume prices before we get back up into balance. Also, from 09.50, just prior to news, down to the bottom swing, 00.50, 1405 is 50% to the tick. Many in the market seem to recognize the significance of a 50% retracement. I pay a lot of attention to it. Much more than fibonacci. On a S-turned-R note, 1405 is also the pullback level yesterday before it really got going, and a tick below the prior LOD today, 05.25.

 

Any number of factors could potentially give significance to that price in the minds of market participants.

 

YIKES!! I'm a much simpler mind than you.. I looked at the break and also the mlvn there so I figured that was a spot to look for a rotation to for a test... it was a good spot to lean on... that's as far as I took it and then the other tools kicked in..fortunately I did scale out just above the LOD as I posted but quite frankly I held a few suspecting we would take 99.00 out ...so I ended up covering the last few for just a bit..hate when that happens... :rofl:

 

re: 1405.00 I ONLY look at volume so I don't overload my brain and then listen to the chart & Magic 8 Ball... My biggest frustration is managing the long-ball since I always let it come back quite a bit before I exit the last bunch...

 

All together a good sequence of trades... now the question..are we done with this ? I think so... but ACH... still got that paper under there...

Edited April 3, 2012 by roztom

[joshdance 10]

YIKES!! I'm a much simpler mind than you..

...

All together a good sequence of trades... now the question..are we done with this ? I think so... but ACh...

 

Simpler is often better, so consider yourself smarter than me For example, where did the most aggressive holding of the bid take place? A couple of ticks above yesterday's low. No profile necessary, just buy the freaking low right? Simple, but effective.

 

Hard to say about this now... the mood has obviously shifted, but sellers may try again at 09... but it this market were really very bearish, why should it come back up to 09 to begin with? We will see.

[roztom 10]

Simpler is often better, so consider yourself smarter than me For example, where did the most aggressive holding of the bid take place? A couple of ticks above yesterday's low. No profile necessary, just buy the freaking low right? Simple, but effective.

 

Hard to say about this now... the mood has obviously shifted, but sellers may try again at 09... but it this market were really very bearish, why should it come back up to 09 to begin with? We will see.

 

Exactly what I'm thinking.. I "think" (that is often a problem) we have comeback too far, especially after being in spitting distance of yesterdays low & stops...

 

I see a potential log "SET UP" right here 1404.50 ready to hatch..not saying it is ripe or anything.. just a piece not all of it there ..much conflict still..