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TheNegotiator

Day Trading the E-mini Futures

By TheNegotiator, in E-mini Futures

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted (edited)

Well, it's 1p cst...I fell asleep at my computer... this is really not tradeable unless something sets up leter...I gues if you are an envelope trader you could "scalp" for a point or 2...certainly not what I do especially with a range this tight..

 

I do think we'll end up on the upside of this range today but a chop is a chop...

 

I've been reading and posting with one eye on the screen...This will probably squirt to the upside this afternoon but ...:confused:

 

Edit: 1:50cst.. All my Technicals are pointing up... but I do not see any edge since there is no good trade location at least at the moment... :missy: :2c:

Edited by roztom

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted (edited)
Looking to buy here at the lows guys, been away all day, but if it acts right I may scoop it up at 1408, if it doesn't plow through.

 

This is like watching paint dry... good luck...

 

What are you referencing? Yesterdays Mid-Point, MLVN 1408.00, etc?

 

1407.25 is kind of a number CLSW

Edited by roztom

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted

N. & Josh: Since we've gotten up to this level my nodes are now changing interday on my 405m chart... so I am changing them on my shorter timeframes...

 

You guys seeing anything like that? Are you moving the Nodes as they change?

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
N. & Josh: Since we've gotten up to this level my nodes are now changing interday on my 405m chart... so I am changing them on my shorter timeframes...

 

You guys seeing anything like that? Are you moving the Nodes as they change?

 

What do you mean they are changing?

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
What do you mean they are changing?

 

Interday they jump around..it is like as the day is crossing the nodes from the previous day that the volume is changing so they are moving..similar to what the Micro's do so when I glance over at my Daily 405m the nodes have moved... It has to probably do with the fact we're up in thin air..that's all I think of to account for it...

 

Have you seen this? This is the first day I've ever seen it... but we're at a new high area... My 405m is set to 2007..

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
Interday they jump around..it is like as the day is crossing the nodes from the previous day that the volume is changing so they are moving..similar to what the Micro's do so when I glance over at my Daily 405m the nodes have moved... It has to probably do with the fact we're up in thin air..that's all I think of to account for it...

 

Have you seen this? This is the first day I've ever seen it... but we're at a new high area... My 405m is set to 2007..

 

Sounds like your profile is simply building... yes?

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted

Yes I think it is updating in realtime.. I guess typically those nodes are pretty well established...

 

You use the same set up as me, right?

 

IRT, 405m, I go back to 2007..which should even make it more stable at that level...don't you think?

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted (edited)
Yes I think it is updating in realtime.. I guess typically those nodes are pretty well established...

 

You use the same set up as me, right?

 

IRT, 405m, I go back to 2007..which should even make it more stable at that level...don't you think?

 

Well I do not use a long term profile like that, in part because we don't have tick data for 2007. Thus, the volume at those levels is only an estimate. Add that to the fact that the eSignal continuous contract differs from the same IQFeed continuous contract, which differs from CGQ, etc., and lastly that not everyone even uses a continuous contract, but rather some splice contracts, and there are a multitude of ways to do that too...

 

Just look at this SPX versus ES monthly chart. From the high back in 2007 we have referenced, the continuous ES contract shows an 87% retracement, whereas the actual retracement of the underlying index is 83%. Note also that the swing high in 2008, which on the index is 1440, has not been reached yet; yet, the ES IQFeed continuous contract shows it already trading above that... [off my soapbox now :D ]

esspx.thumb.png.7141fa43eea558c395dd231336e97f91.png

Edited by joshdance

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted

Thoughts for Wednesday 3.28.12

 

Market rested yesterday and had some responsive selling, especially when it looked like longs bailed at the end of the rth session..

 

GBX session held the Mondays VPOC @ 1405.00 and even with yesterday sell-off into the close we are building higher value.. As of 6:19cst Previous VPOC's have moved higher as have Value Areas in RTH.

 

Potential for a trading range to develop with probes on both sides.. being mindful of open gap below..

 

Trend, of course is Up... :2c:

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted

Thought I'd do a quick chart to show this Tom as it's often counter-intuitive. Of course we could still trade lower, but it shows that the market was trying to go higher given its higher value(and/or VPOC). Although I mentioned the 1408.00 area in the chart, looking at a 30min chart too I think 1410.00 area could have a role to play too and perhaps even override the 1408.00 importance. We'll see. Bear in mind we're a little way from open still so that could all change later on.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=28202&stc=1&d=1332934906

2012-03-28.thumb.jpg.a8a795adda3e776b7d16e8f82fc2d47a.jpg

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
Thought I'd do a quick chart to show this Tom as it's often counter-intuitive. Of course we could still trade lower, but it shows that the market was trying to go higher given its higher value(and/or VPOC). Although I mentioned the 1408.00 area in the chart, looking at a 30min chart too I think 1410.00 area could have a role to play too and perhaps even override the 1408.00 importance. We'll see. Bear in mind we're a little way from open still so that could all change later on.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=28202&stc=1&d=1332934906

 

I am certainly biased to buy breaks especially for a test of yesterdays high or VPOC...Right now we are in the middle but it is still early.. I do like that we tested the NVPOC 1405.00 in GBX. and had a nice move off it right up to yesterdays VPOC... Interesting... :missy:

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TheNegotiator    13

TheNegotiator
Posted
I am certainly biased to buy breaks especially for a test of yesterdays high or VPOC...Right now we are in the middle but it is still early.. I do like that we tested the NVPOC 1405.00 in GBX. and had a nice move off it right up to yesterdays VPOC... Interesting... :missy:

 

We also did the same on the other side with 11.75 vpoc tested. Today is low data and with stuff coming up next couple of days/next week, it is quite possible that we build some more today.

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
We also did the same on the other side with 11.75 vpoc tested. Today is low data and with stuff coming up next couple of days/next week, it is quite possible that we build some more today.

 

One thing I always consider, no matter what the bigger picture - is where are most of the stops going to cluster on the other side of the trend?

 

That as of now, imho is under CLVN at 1401.75..& Mondays low...

 

Of course I don't know if/when we might test there but those are usually magnets for auction activity.. But if the Bulls are ravenous then they will buy anything & it doesn't matter... Friday & Monday are very powerful days...

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
Thought I'd do a quick chart to show this Tom as it's often counter-intuitive. Of course we could still trade lower, but it shows that the market was trying to go higher given its higher value(and/or VPOC).

 

This is only true if you equate value with VPOC -- if you equate closing price at the end of the day with value, then yesterday's value is lower than Monday's. Looking at the overnight action, they could only muster up to 1412, so IMO market will trade lower for buyers. 1401 will be the point I'm looking at to buy first.

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CYP    10

CYP
Posted
One thing I always consider, no matter what the bigger picture - is where are most of the stops going to cluster on the other side of the trend?

 

That as of now, imho is under CLVN at 1401.75..& Mondays low...

 

Of course I don't know if/when we might test there but those are usually magnets for auction activity.. But if the Bulls are ravenous then they will buy anything & it doesn't matter... Friday & Monday are very powerful days...

 

Tom - looking at 1402 target before rotation back up. We've drifted back down prior to open, so I'm thinking a low will be made first before the turn back up towards the 1410 area. Could provide an okay range to trade today...we'll see.

 

CYP

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted (edited)
This is only true if you equate value with VPOC -- if you equate closing price at the end of the day with value, then yesterday's value is lower than Monday's. Looking at the overnight action, they could only muster up to 1412, so IMO market will trade lower for buyers. 1401 will be the point I'm looking at to buy first.

 

Agree...I posted my preference to see them test Mondays low & take the stops..that doesn't take away from higher value...I do not trade value in that sense... but I do look at what the market is trying to do - it is going higher but it does need to get the weak hands out and advertise for more buyers. I have CLVN 1401.75 but that area is vulnerable with the gap.. I think we will see activity there but also with that gap it could get turbulent... :2c:

 

NVPOC 98.50 & CHVN 98.50 & an open CLose @ 97.75

Edited by roztom

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
NVPOC 98.50 & CHVN 98.50

 

Good point -- it's naked in RTH only of course, as it was traded through Sunday and early Monday before open.

 

Four VPOCs over last nine days fall within that 96-99 area. ...

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted
Good point -- it's naked in RTH only of course, as it was traded through Sunday and early Monday before open.

 

Four VPOCs over last nine days fall within that 96-99 area. ...

 

I am looking to short side early & long down there...subject to... of course... good trading all...

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joshdance    10

joshdance
Posted
I am looking to short side early & long down there...subject to... of course... good trading all...

 

Ditto Tom, I am looking to sell 09-10s, with a cover and possible reverse around 01-02 ... I hope I haven't missed the boat.

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CYP    10

CYP
Posted
Tom - looking at 1402 target before rotation back up. We've drifted back down prior to open, so I'm thinking a low will be made first before the turn back up towards the 1410 area. Could provide an okay range to trade today...we'll see.

 

CYP

 

Hmm...maybe dyslexia has set in for me and I actually meant high first, then low... :) As Josh says "ACH"...still holding short at 1407.50...

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roztom    10

roztom
Posted (edited)

shorted 1407.00 lost 1.25 pts, re-shorted 1407.25.. scale , 1405.00, nxt 1402.75 in front of CLVN 1401.75... nxt 98.50 area...

 

If I see rotation to 1406 area + mid-point might add... :helloooo:

 

Covered all 6.75... aside for moment... GRRR:confused:

Edited by roztom

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