Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[CYP 10]

I really don't want to see 88.25 again... but based on structure this rotation "could be about it" give or take a few ticks to 89.00 area again..

 

Since I scaled 1/3 of my position I am going to see how we behave here and potentially put it back on... sine I have taken some risk off the table... will see..

 

Edit: I didn't get enough of a pullbk to add..i thought 90.00 would get ticked and I got another buy at 91.25 but not enough room with next target close & risk out of whack..imho... so just hanging out with my next scale 93.50... then Hail Mary pass..

 

Let's go Tom -- do your magic and get us up to 95, at least...(do I sound biased?)...

 

CYP

[roztom 10]

Let's go Tom -- do your magic and get us up to 95, at least...(do I sound biased?)...

 

CYP

 

SOmebody needs to press the Green Button - HARD...:helloooo:

[TheNegotiator 13]

All hanging in there still? It was wasting my time again so I called time on the trade before. Might take a look at a quicky if we get a late break.

[TheNegotiator 13]

SOmebody needs to press the Green Button - HARD...:helloooo:

 

I'm pressing it Tom, I'm pressing.... aww I think it broke. Do you think that means it'll only go up from now on? :rofl:

[CYP 10]

SOmebody needs to press the Green Button - HARD...:helloooo:

 

Yes...whoever pressed the green button yesterday...please do it again. I know Josh didn't like you for pressing that button, but it would be a good weekend gift for Tom and I...(and Josh too? I forget if he went long today...)

[roztom 10]

Yes...whoever pressed the green button yesterday...please do it again. I know Josh didn't like you for pressing that button, but it would be a good weekend gift for Tom and I...(and Josh too? I forget if he went long today...)

 

All together now... 1-2-3 PUSH !!!!

[CYP 10]

All together now... 1-2-3 PUSH !!!!

 

Tom -- I couldn't do it...got out at 92. Will buy if we move towards 93, but right now, I'm flat for the day and possibly the weekend...

 

CYP

[TheNegotiator 13]

Well cash close and that all for me folks! I think everyone else took the afternoon off. Oh well. Hope you all had a good one today. Have a great weekend all.

[roztom 10]

Well, that was excruciating..got my 93.50's took runner at same price...

 

Have a good weekend... I am going to work on ..not making some of the SAME mistakes..

 

I had to really fight to hang on for the target...

[joshdance 10]

No fear in this market guys...

[roztom 10]

Tom -- I couldn't do it...got out at 92. Will buy if we move towards 93, but right now, I'm flat for the day and possibly the weekend...

 

CYP

 

Nothing wrong with that... I had a tough time with it myself.... Congratulate yourself for hanging in there...

[roztom 10]

No fear in this market guys...

 

...Looks like we go up... 1401 -1402 stop heaven...good magnet...

 

I have a MicroLVN @ 1402.25, CLVN 1405.00

[joshdance 10]

Today felt like the mother of all squeezes... it just would not let any shorts get back to breakeven much less make money!

[CYP 10]

No fear in this market guys...

 

...one of the traits I'm trying to control...definitely got me during last 15 minutes of cash market. Got out at 92 for 1.50 scalp. Of course, the market continues afterwards to settle at 1394.25...oh well.

 

Overall, good trading week for me. Every day is a learning experience -- both about the market and more importantly, about myself (...I know, very cliche, but very true...)

 

Thanks Tom, Josh, and N for all your viewpoints and banter -- it helps me stay grounded, which is something that has been missing for a while.

 

Have a great weekend and we'll see you on Monday (...or Sunday night, for you overseas GBX players)

 

CYP

[roztom 10]

Today felt like the mother of all squeezes... it just would not let any shorts get back to breakeven much less make money!

 

Actually a beautiful thing to see... I left you a post earlier about that bottom from yesterday... BTW, there was single at 80.25... I really screwed up since I was going for the 77.00 and didn't scale in front of the single...ended up giving a lot back and it was unnecessary... I also failed to see the reversal... MY technicals did - I was stuck in reverse and stood against it...that set me back... :crap:

 

Fortunately I dusted myself off and got on a continuation trade long at the only spot I saw...

 

I have some conflict in my methodology that pops up in transitions so I have to look at that and see maybe if a cattle prod or something might help...

[joshdance 10]

Today I was very pig-headed. I shorted, but wound up down 2 points on a couple of contracts because I refused to hit the "reverse" button. We talked about that hindsight bias, but in REAL TIME, I had an opportunity to get out at BE, and reverse long... it was so clear that what I thought was just a rotation at the time was not over, and that we were going higher.. how far, I did not know, but going up--that was clear.

 

What caused me to be stubborn is that little inkling of doubt that MAYBE, just maybe, I'm right, and then I would have exited just before the resumption down occurred. Despite the fact that I was 90% sure I was on the wrong side, that 10% of hope caused me to lose, and even worse, miss the rest of the uptrend for the day.

[joshdance 10]

...one of the traits I'm trying to control...definitely got me during last 15 minutes of cash market. Got out at 92 for 1.50 scalp. Of course, the market continues afterwards to settle at 1394.25...oh well.

 

Overall, good trading week for me. Every day is a learning experience -- both about the market and more importantly, about myself (...I know, very cliche, but very true...)

 

Thanks Tom, Josh, and N for all your viewpoints and banter -- it helps me stay grounded, which is something that has been missing for a while.

 

Have a great weekend and we'll see you on Monday (...or Sunday night, for you overseas GBX players)

 

CYP

 

You did better than me, at least you were on the right side--though it was pretty clear that we would not see a BIG selloff, even a small rotation down can usually be expected, particularly on a Friday as bulls take some profits, and you were just hedging against that I suppose. Nothing wrong with that in my mind... buying right into the 4:15 close is not something you want to bank on, though on a day like today it's more likely than normal.

[roztom 10]

Today I was very pig-headed. I shorted, but wound up down 2 points on a couple of contracts because I refused to hit the "reverse" button. We talked about that hindsight bias, but in REAL TIME, I had an opportunity to get out at BE, and reverse long... it was so clear that what I thought was just a rotation at the time was not over, and that we were going higher.. how far, I did not know, but going up--that was clear.

 

What caused me to be stubborn is that little inkling of doubt that MAYBE, just maybe, I'm right, and then I would have exited just before the resumption down occurred. Despite the fact that I was 90% sure I was on the wrong side, that 10% of hope caused me to lose, and even worse, miss the rest of the uptrend for the day.

 

I find that making the transition from short to long, etc is difficult for me... When we are in transition I am often looking to reposition with the initial direction when in reality the trend is changing - except my brain is still in the sell mode like today...

 

This is a repetitive issue for me... Once I figure it out then if the market lets me I can get on board in the right direction on a continuation trade - though late... if there is a reachable target like today it worked out ..

 

This weekend, like every evening, I am going to looking at my tools, doing playback and see if I can either recognize the transition or at the very least see a pattern that says STOP and wait before looking for a continuation trade against a potential emerging new trend..

 

So much to do....

[roztom 10]

As far as my last post, I would like to hear about what you guys do to recognize the change in trend...

 

Obviously I know when it has happened but that is often after I have tried to take a continuation trade with what I perceive to be the current trend which is against the emerging trend..this might be at the midpoint or a rotation up to where stops are sitting and then there will be a move back initially towards the initial trend that will fail... if the trend has changed - my brain though is fixated on the current trend and typically doesn't see the other possiblilty until it is too late..then all I can do is wait for a rotation from the new trend and get on board which was fine yesterday but in a swift rejection of the previous trend - good trade location is difficult to obtain..

 

Obviously losing trades are part of the deal and maybe that is just the way it goes...

 

Yesterday Friday, 3/23/12 is a good example.. we sold off, took out the previous days low and then reversed off a Single (which I missed initially - pilot error)..

 

To me the down trend was not over and I anticipated a retracement to test that low... However, that never materialized - there was really no rotation as what emerged was what I would call a trend day up and an outside Daily bar... Lower prices were decisively rejected...

 

This is one of those things that is not clear to me as it is developing...

Yesterday I did observe strong rejection off the bottom and the bars going back up were strong without rotation, other than that It wasn't until we had taken out the stops just above the mid-point and then we didn't rotate back down to the DVAL... then I was upside down...

 

Maybe I should just chalk it up to just a losing trade but in the interday timeframe when these changes develop I am slow to let them in to my thinking..

 

I'm curious if any of you have any other processes to recognize this quicker...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Before I say what I look at, I'd point out that I don't think there are any hard and fast rules for this as much of what we look has different implications depending on the day. That being said, I think it is possible to recognise earlier that the market has turned, but your bias has to be lifted to accept the possibility and act on it quicker. This comes back to how we react to something depending on the type of position we hold or whether we are mostly or entirely flat. Anyway.

 

Levels, context, reaction, behaviour. (There's gotta be a good acronym there somewhere!)

 

LEVELS

 

There are big levels, small levels, minor pause levels, confluence levels. Lots of levels all over. It is important to work out where the big ones are in your prep work. Not just to trade there, but to interpret price action relative to them. E.g. Does the market end up reversing before or after a big level? This might show underlying bias(or not).

 

CONTEXT

 

Context is maybe a little broad here. I think that there are lots of things to take into account. E.g. Friday, I was thinking that 1- overall trend was up 2- overall trend was starting to struggle 3- market participants seemed to be after better prices to motivate them to buy. First level was not changing the direction for very long. 4- I didn't think OTF had been especially active in previous days.

 

REACTION

 

What does the market do when it got to the pre-identified possible reversal area? E.g. Friday sold pretty quick from the mentioned 1389.00 area and although it reversed from 84.75, it failed to take the open. Selling was decent as shown by cumulative delta. It left a tick of the singles @80.25 and clearly buying competition was strong when it moved quickly away and strong positive delta in the face of the negative delta.

 

BEHAVIOUR

 

What does the market do afterwards? Well point of reference for me is going to vary from trade to trade. In this case, it surged back through Thursday's low and long term low volume rejection at 1382.50. It then retested twice and held. Daltonesque view would then to be a test of the otherside of Thursday's range. Failed breaks can be extremely powerful.

 

 

The trouble is as a discretionary trader who has a position against the reversal like Tom had on Friday, do you define something which says, "we have reversed" or do you just say "this should have gone already" and hit out? I think it should involve a little of both.

 

[roztom 10]

N: What is interesting here and I can't speak for Josh but I think in his post he intimated the same thing, is that while there were numerous signs that there was a potential trend reversal at hand the issue comes down to really subtle items..the swiftness of the trend reversal, the number of bars driving up from the rejected bottom vs the counter rotations against the previous move down...

 

I also knew as we discussed the previous day when we had that "local bottom" - that bottom wasn't good so taking it out Friday was highly probable also we discussed the recent high was a "bad high" so the trend was up... & we should expect a test and probable rejection or... up there...there was no tail... so we had the bias for a move back up - we also targeted that NVPOC @ 77.00..one thing was that single at 82.00 ish - we never really get into those but if you go & look when & how it was created it was a signifigent area of OTF buying on FED Day..

 

That is a lot to have in your consciousness when you are managing a trade... What really screwed the pooch for me is that I took 2 shorts as continuation trades against the emerging trend... I could see worst case taking the first one (still not a good one based on the emerging evidence) - it was at the only real counter rotation which was brief. The second short was a WTF trade... that took a good day and turned it upside down.

 

Fortunately I got in line and came out ahead for the day but that is not really important the damage was done..

 

This is part of the dilemma I have..there were parts of my brain that recognized the trend change was happening but there was another part that did not actively change with it.. until damage was done..

 

That's really all I can say on it.. Picking tops and bottoms is not my strength which is why continuation trades and rotations are where I seem to do well.. however it is not the trades I don't take - there is always another bus coming by - it is taking more than one trade against the emerging trend that got me - even if I allow for the first one but either way my brain did not allow for what my other brain was seeing.

 

BTW: I started a Thread "Unconscious vs. Conscious Competence" but so far I haven't gotten any real responses..so maybe I'm the only one living in twinky land...

 

Thanks for your comments..

[roztom 10]

BTW: I started a Thread "Unconscious vs. Conscious Competence" but so far I haven't gotten any real responses..so maybe I'm the only one living in twinky land ("Left Field, etc) ...

 

Just an update to this comment: I am now getting some terrific responses on this topic.. it is really helpful... I guess it just took some time before the thread was discovered...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Tom, if you feel you are best at continuation trades, you need to figure out criteria of when to not take them just as when to take them. Since you are a human being and not a robot, the likelihood is you'll miss things sometimes, but you can always strive to be as good as you can. The rest is kind of the cost of making money from the continuation trades.

 

Secondly and I must stress that this is something i would never dive right into, if you are a continuation trader, is ES the best market for you?

[roztom 10]

Tom, if you feel you are best at continuation trades, you need to figure out criteria of when to not take them just as when to take them. Since you are a human being and not a robot, the likelihood is you'll miss things sometimes, but you can always strive to be as good as you can. The rest is kind of the cost of making money from the continuation trades.

 

Secondly and I must stress that this is something i would never dive right into, if you are a continuation trader, is ES the best market for you?

 

Actually no - that is an area I am quite adept at.. as far a levels, etc... It is only one facet of my plan.. There isn't really that much to it... I can often catch bottoms, tops at logical excesses/targets usually on the initial test against a top/bottom... this can be on a fast tic chart or something a little longer if it is not a clean rejection...

 

The angst I have with Friday and even Thursdays quick rejection off that bad bottom we discussed is that I get caught more often than I should...

 

I am also often slow to let go of my initial perception of the current trend as things are changing... this was not always the case.. so it is also a function of focus/age..

 

I believe that I need some more kind of conscious alert that will signal me to this potential... Possibly some automated signal or something.

 

However when a market is in transition it is not clear until after the ship has sailed - at least not in the timeframe I trade in... It does become evident in a higher timeframe but by then often I have taken a continuation trade against that emerging trend or the risk to get on the emerging trend is too great when eventually recognized and then I must settle for a continuation set up... with less potential.

 

The real problem is holding on to the previous perception when the market is transitioning.. Back in my earlier trading days I was more of a shooter and would take those counter-trend trades which could turn into new emerging trends however I do not trade like that anymore and have lengthened my timeframe to try to catch larger rotations with targets...

 

The lengthened timeframe is what causes me to not recognize the potential transition... I do have indicators that will signal me of a rotation plus I just see it.These are variable and nebulous factors.. so I am not sure at the moment if I can quantify a stuctured response/signal to avoid this mistep..

 

I am working on it..too often this takes a very good day and turns it into mediocrity.. It doesn't take too much to do that... even if the losing trade(s) are managed properly considering the average range of ES that can make a huge difference to P&L...

 

I'm giving this careful review... Thanks for your input. .

 

BTW, referencing Friday... there was NVPOC @ 77.00 which was still in my mind so I was still holding on to it as a viable target and looking for it..I did not at the time let the rejection off the 82ish low register eventhough my "Unconscious Competent" recognized it..

 

Referenced in the thread I started "Unconscious Competence vs Conscious Competence."

Edited March 25, 2012 by roztom

[roztom 10]

[quote name=TheNegotiator; .

 

Secondly and I must stress that this is something i would never dive right into' date=' if you are a continuation trader, is ES the best market for you?[/quote]

 

What is your suggestion on this point? Tx