Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[Colonel B 10]

I predict that every time this pattern happens

[Colonel B 10]

This will happen or do it again.

[Colonel B 10]

Same pattern just only long this time.

[Colonel B 10]

and here is the impending result

[DionysusToast 10]

and here is the impending result

 

Glad to see somebody else rolled - thought it was just me :haha:

[Colonel B 10]

Not sure if "predict" is the right word. But hey when buyers or seller get too slong or too short it will break consolidation. We call these "head fakes" in the ES. Sometimes you get double head fakes were it will go 2 ticks through a range then 2 ticks through the other.

 

Its like what 4 point range in the ES today? I think just about anything will work today and just about every thing will lose today because of the range

[Colonel B 10]

You didn't roll yet????? Hey they are quoting H in the pit and have been since yesterday.

[steve46 12]

Not sure if "predict" is the right word. But hey when buyers or seller get too slong or too short it will break consolidation. We call these "head fakes" in the ES. Sometimes you get double head fakes were it will go 2 ticks through a range then 2 ticks through the other.

 

Its like what 4 point range in the ES today? I think just about anything will work today and just about every thing will lose today because of the range

 

Except getting a place in the pre-market

 

Two (2) shots at it from midnight's London Open....shortly after 2am and then again after 4am

 

No special software.....no mentors.....no BS...just lookin at what the previous market's been doing and assuming that "contination" is the better bet.....and from last night until today...it was.

 

My day's over....gotta get some sleep

 

 

Seeya

Edited December 14, 2012 by steve46

[joshdance 10]

Balance so far today. Based on the back-adjusted roll, market tested 07.25, heavy volume area from the 11/29 to 12/10 balance. Not a reason to get long in itself, but so far a reaction off of it. Based on the fact that the market is in balance and has broken below balance, if it can trade back up and hold the 09s, a buyer might expect a test of 16, or at least 12s. Said another way, this market so far today does not really want to go down, and if this is proven to be a test and success, then a trade back up to the top of value and prior balance for the week would be expected.

[Colonel B 10]

Based on your erratic behavior and outbursts and overall ill temperament, you do not seem the type of fellow who is doing so well in your trading. Why else would you act like such a jerk?

 

As for the reason for this thread, you should really read the quote from N that you posted. It says ideas. Maybe you have posted ideas, but I haven't seen them. I have also gone through the "post every position change" phase and it's just silly.

 

Here is the problem Josh. First off I am a Futures Trader. I trade to make a living. I don't have another job or some sort of supplement income like so many others here. SO I have to trade and post and that is very difficult to me. You immediately lose credibility (as you should) for posting late and in retrospect. So any trade I really like I take.

 

As for being a jerk... Well when some one posts a system that looks like a monkey humping a football I am going to laugh about it. I am going to say that it looks like a monkey humping a football. I understand because everyone has been taught to invent something that fits them. I am doing some thing different. I am doing something opposite. Its not personal to me if my stuff fails or blows up in my face. It is personal to the person I laugh at.

 

As for "ideas" maybe you don't know what systems I use to trade. Here is a list for you and anyone else. Feel free to PM me for more details. I use Order Flow. Not the bullshit order flow that you see all over here. But real order flow where you can guess where the stops are and take advantage of it. I use Market Profile and Volume Profile. These 2 are pretty explanatory. I use correlated markets. I use the bonds, notes, and ES to trade the bonds.

 

Maybe the reason you don't see any ideas is because so far I haven't seen ANYONE who trades like this. No one on this forum. Who else uses MP and VP along with correlated markets and thrown in really good order flow that you can use? Folks here struggle with just 1 market with just one of these so called methodologies.

 

And one more thing I want to address that has come up in the last few days. Something near and dear to me. This wont change and if it does please quote this and feel free to rub it in my face and call me what ever you want.

 

I AM NOT GOING TO SELL ANYTHING AND I AM NOT SELLING ANYTHING!!!!! I trade for a living and I will let the chumps here do all the selling.

[Predictor 11]

>>Maybe the reason you don't see any ideas is because so far I haven't seen ANYONE who >>trades like this. No one on this forum. Who else uses MP and VP along with correlated

>>markets and thrown in really good order flow that you can use?

 

Why don't you share.. you might be surprised what other traders are doing.

 

Nice to hear you're not selling anything...that's really important to me.

[Colonel B 10]

Here is one. Its an IB trade. Standard MP with a twist. The secret to the order flow is to watch the wrong color come out and in the ES 1500 gets me looking and 2000+ is something to watch. In this one I don't have an actual target and I am out already with all my contracts. 2012-12-14_1114 - Colonel.B's library

 

You can see on the bottom chart there is not a singe big buyer or big seller coming in. All short term shorts getting stuck looking for follow through.

[joshdance 10]

Balance so far today. Based on the back-adjusted roll, market tested 07.25, heavy volume area from the 11/29 to 12/10 balance. Not a reason to get long in itself, but so far a reaction off of it. Based on the fact that the market is in balance and has broken below balance, if it can trade back up and hold the 09s, a buyer might expect a test of 16, or at least 12s. Said another way, this market so far today does not really want to go down, and if this is proven to be a test and success, then a trade back up to the top of value and prior balance for the week would be expected.

 

Trade premise worked out very well in this case, 12 traded and I got flat at 11.50. 08.50 holding was important.

[Colonel B 10]

Except getting a place in the pre-market

Two (2) shots at it from midnight's London Open....shortly after 2am and then again after 4am

No special software.....no mentors.....no BS...just lookin at what the previous market's been doing and assuming that "contination" is the better bet.....and from last night until today...it was.

My day's over....gotta get some sleep

Seeya

 

Yea no way I am getting up that early. Mainly because I cam make money during RTH. But hey if you can make money then and have an advantage then go for it.

 

And yes I think that is "predicting."

[Colonel B 10]

That order flow pattern is setting up again. Lets see if it consolidates and then has a head fake then moves higher then lower. The dice guy says higher and I think anyone with a 30 min candle can see that it may go higher. 2012-12-14_1132 - Colonel.B's library

 

You dont need special software either. Just look at the bonds and notes both have stopped 1 time framing and are coming off a bit.

[Predictor 11]

CB... I know that some traders see a balanced profile and expect us to hover around the 16.50 testing above and below it. I know that. I know what many traders are seeing. I'm seeing what I'm seeing.. doesn't mean it will happen...I'm just trying to weigh the odds. I'm looking for about a 6ish point drive from here to upside..but I'm constantly reading the market.. evaluating the information

[joshdance 10]

Here is the problem Josh. First off I am a Futures Trader. I trade to make a living. I don't have another job or some sort of supplement income like so many others here. SO I have to trade and post and that is very difficult to me. You immediately lose credibility (as you should) for posting late and in retrospect. So any trade I really like I take.

 

I AM NOT GOING TO SELL ANYTHING AND I AM NOT SELLING ANYTHING!!!!! I trade for a living and I will let the chumps here do all the selling.

 

I can certainly find some common ground and agree with these two things--I do not like "brilliant" ideas presented after they have played out as much as before, because hindsight bias makes it clear what the right thing to do was, after it has happened, but the challenge comes in real time, so I respect ideas presented before or as they play out. Of course, not all good trades can fit into an "idea" necessarily. Intuition, quick reads, and a sense of "now" all play a factor. But having a sense of context and a general premise on market mood can fit into the mold of "idea" so that information can be shared if one wants to do so, even if the execution of the trade is based more on things that cannot be readily posted.

 

And secondly, I also do not sell nor will I ever sell anything; to those that do, I continue to question their viability, but it will be what it will be.

[Colonel B 10]

CB... I know that some traders see a balanced profile and expect us to hover around the 16.50 testing above and below it. I know that. I know what many traders are seeing. I'm seeing what I'm seeing.. doesn't mean it will happen...I'm just trying to weigh the odds. I'm looking for about a 6ish point drive from here to upside..but I'm constantly reading the market.. evaluating the information

 

Well 6 is pretty aggressive. You got brass. I am going to make a quick buck. I wont hold anything for 6 points. I cut my winners quick and cut my losers even quicker

 

But yea if it gets to 15.25 - 15.75 I am going to be looking for blue volume 1500-2000+ to take a trade to get short.

 

Right now I am looking for some one to go off sides and im hoping to post pics for it.

[Predictor 11]

CB.. typically I'm only shooting for 2 to 4 points though my stops can be large or small.

[steve46 12]

Not able to sleep just yet...but I saw a couple of posts I want to respond to

 

First...the ES has wiggled around quite a bit today.....seems to me that if you had a piece of software that allowed you to see the reversal points (to read the order flow) as Predicktor says he can, that you would want to show that off as much as possible...Today....he doesn't seem to be able to do it....one observation

 

Second, with respect to "predicting"...I don't "predict" direction....tempting to try it, but no...I do claim, suggest, or state.... that continuation has a higher probability than reversal at most points in a chart...thats just simple observation over a period of years...when I take a shot I prefer to bet on continuation of a previous trend (the data has to support it of course).

 

and finally, what works is what works, whether you like the timing of the idea, or the person presenting it....doesn't affect the validity of the concept...

[Colonel B 10]

yea not me I use 2 tick stop on the bonds and notes and 2-3 on the ES sometimes 4 if I get a bad price if I go to market. 4 points is too much for me either way

[Colonel B 10]

head fake setting up. I may not take this one but im trying to call it out early

2012-12-14_1149 - Colonel.B's library

 

2012-12-14_1158 - Colonel.B's library

 

consolidation is happening. A 10 year old could see it on the second one

[joshdance 10]

CB... I know that some traders see a balanced profile and expect us to hover around the 16.50 testing above and below it. I know that. I know what many traders are seeing. I'm seeing what I'm seeing.. doesn't mean it will happen...I'm just trying to weigh the odds. I'm looking for about a 6ish point drive from here to upside..but I'm constantly reading the market.. evaluating the information

 

That's what makes trading interesting, and what makes it work at all -- one person sells to another, thinking the price is too high, and the person buying thinks it's too low. In the same way, one person's evaluation of odds or what is likely may be quite contrary to another's. For example, a break lower would have many traders looking short, but the context would have others looking to buy. And the context is, IMO, what makes the difference. Yesterday, a break lower meant look to sell, today, it means look to buy. Thus, a context-based approach is the only thing that gives any meaning to "low" or "high." So, at these prices now, some will see that we are trading at or near the high of value for the day, on a balanced day, and will look to sell. But others will see that a break below balanced failed, and a building of volume higher, so they will be looking to get long--perhaps here, perhaps lower. Or someone may have a super secret proprietary Super Flow-O-Matic that gives them their own context for understanding. So in the end, all we have is what in our own personal experience and methodology constitutes a "more likely" scenario. Because anything can happen, at any time (particularly in these headline-driven), our likely scenario is all we can really put confidence in.

[Colonel B 10]

Not able to sleep just yet...but I saw a couple of posts I want to respond to

 

First...the ES has wiggled around quite a bit today.....seems to me that if you had a piece of software that allowed you to see the reversal points (to read the order flow) as Predicktor says he can, that you would want to show that off as much as possible...Today....he doesn't seem to be able to do it....one observation

 

Second, with respect to "predicting"...I don't "predict" direction....tempting to try it, but no...I do claim, suggest, or state.... that continuation has a higher probability than reversal at most points in a chart...thats just simple observation over a period of years...when I take a shot I prefer to bet on continuation of a previous trend (the data has to support it of course).

 

and finally, what works is what works, whether you like the timing of the idea, or the person presenting it....doesn't affect the validity of the concept...

 

Yea I posted what I thought of his software in his thread. I think its a poor rip off of the stuff I use. I don't think he is doing a good job reading it either.

 

HOWEVER just because I don't think he isn't good at it and maybe selling a poorer ripped off version of what i use doesn't mean he isn't on to something and that what he is attempting doesn't work.

 

In all fairness I watched only 5-10 minutes of his video and looked at the pics up to my post.

[Colonel B 10]

2012-12-14_1210 - Colonel.B's library

 

now im wating for the 1500-200+