Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[TheNegotiator 13]

Oh dear. I don't think those IJC figures are going to be especially supportive of the market especially considering the weak (although expected slightly weaker broadly) Eurozone GDP figures earlier. You never know though. Yesterday was a big down day with major targets achieved. Philly Fed is due later on and there are lots of Fed speakers by the looks of things, including Big Ben.

 

Edited November 15, 2012 by TheNegotiator

[TheNegotiator 13]

Here's a chart with a few thoughts:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

-10.7 for philly fed exp +1.5!!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Interesting movement there. Looked like the sort of move when a figure is released then corrected (nothing out on that though that I know of). Of course it could be that lower prices are being heavily defended...

[TheNegotiator 13]

it is options expiration tomorrow

[bakrob99 11]

Interesting movement there. Looked like the sort of move when a figure is released then corrected (nothing out on that though that I know of). Of course it could be that lower prices are being heavily defended...

 

Sell programs hit on the Philly Fed number ... but no follow through.

[TheNegotiator 13]

What did we do yesterday overall then? Not much as is often the case following a big move. This doesn't always happen of course.

 

Anyway, here's a chart:-

 

 

The overnight low was put in earlyish in the european session as a test of yesterday's low and only managed 3 ticks beyond that point. At the moment we are near the overnight highs (high is 56.00 right now) and it looks as though we want to push higher. Greece concerns (amongst others) and middle east tensions could lead to the market being jumpy over news items. Also of course is the dark cloud gathering overhead that is the US fiscal cliff.

 

Merkel, EU's Van Rompuy & Rehn and Fed's Lockhart are scheduled to speak later. Industrial production and capacity utilization are the figures due out.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I am considering that yesterday's IB Low at 1348.50 (and low at 45.25) and the area between 58.50 (yesterday's high) and 59.75 (base on mp singles from weds) are the important levels to watch. Below and we could well see a test of that 1333.75 area. Above and we could see 65.75/66.50/67.00 area, 69.00 (singles) then 78.00. (with possible s/r levels in between on both sides).

 

Any thoughts?

[TheNegotiator 13]

It might be worth keeping an eye on yesterday's value area as it was pretty well balanced around wednesday's low. Also, the value area high has been respected in the overnight session.

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Did anyone try the Mouse and Keyboard Lock App I found btw?

[TheNegotiator 13]

For anyone who didn't see yet, ind prod came in at -0.4% exp +0.2% and cap ut 77.8% exp 78.3%. So both lower.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So the other possibility is that we remain bound by the areas I mentioned above and below (or extend them a little) and continue to balance into the weekend. Considering this, the weekend and news from the middle east must be taken into account. Do people want to be exposed to risk over the weekend that some mass ground invasion takes place? Also I guess the fact that we have moved lower already over the last week or so means risk has already been reduced to some extent for longs. Anyway, the point is we could get into balance for much of the day but see a move into close. Worth being aware of anyway imho.

[TheNegotiator 13]

A quick chart showing some of the levels I am watching:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

I just noticed the highlighted 2012 RTH midpoint level should have been placed slightly lower to cover 53 VAH area. I'm not going to redo the chart though.

[TheNegotiator 13]

In the strictest sense (no initial balance break at all) since 3/14/7 there have been only ~2.4% of days which are neutral. fyi.

[TheNegotiator 13]

In the strictest sense (no initial balance break at all) since 3/14/7 there have been only ~2.4% of days which are neutral. fyi.

 

When I say "neutral" I really meant "normal".

 

i.e. only 2.4% of days (35) have been normal when the high and low are the same as the IB high and low.

[TheNegotiator 13]

This push higher was on the comment from Boehner that talks with Obama were constructive.

 

Incidentally the occurrence of neutral days (yes, I do mean neutral this time ) since 3/14/7 is ~29.1% or 425 days.

[TheNegotiator 13]

CME Equity Index products on new hours now:-

 

New CME Equities Hours and Limits

[TheNegotiator 13]

Quick chart:-

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

It seems this rally into open is still to do with the comments last Friday about the Obama/Boehner talks on the fiscal cliff. Indeed we closed on Friday at the high. Now retracing the pre-fomc minutes part of Wednesday. Middle east is still a worry with the Israelis seemingly intent on eradicating any threat to themselves although no ground invasion has happened yet and they claim they prefer diplomatic solutions. We'll see. Existing Homes Sales due out at 10am (exp -0.1% prev -1.7%).

[joshdance 10]

Did anyone try the Mouse and Keyboard Lock App I found btw?

 

Is there an advantage to that versus creating a shortcut to lock using:

 

C:\Windows\System32\rundll32.exe user32.dll,LockWorkStation

 

and then assigning an icon and a keyboard shortcut to it?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Is there an advantage to that versus creating a shortcut to lock using:

 

C:\Windows\System32\rundll32.exe user32.dll,LockWorkStation

 

and then assigning an icon and a keyboard shortcut to it?

 

Ease ?

[joshdance 10]

Ease ?

 

If you mean ease of install, it would take me longer to download, install, and inspect the program than to do New->Shortcut and type it in the box Plus, I don't like the idea so much of external programs locking input; I'd rather let the OS do that natively.

 

Slow day but to be expected. Doing well on the long side, even though it's boring. How's it going across the pond N?

[TheNegotiator 13]

If you mean ease of install, it would take me longer to download, install, and inspect the program than to do New->Shortcut and type it in the box Plus, I don't like the idea so much of external programs locking input; I'd rather let the OS do that natively.

 

Slow day but to be expected. Doing well on the long side, even though it's boring. How's it going across the pond N?

 

Yeah not too bad JD. Definitely felt like the grinder was on today though.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Interesting point from yesterday was that although we gapped up 11.5 points on open and moved higher pretty much all day, it wasn't that convincing either. Volume was getting on for 20% lower than recent volume (using basic measures). The range was even lower comparatively speaking although there was the gap up. Volume was also largely distributed around prior volume at 1378.00 (yesterday's vpoc was 77.75), suggesting some acceptance there. So my question is whether or not we will build around this area again today or will move to test higher (or lower).

 

Moody's have downgraded the French, Spain had a decent result with bond auctions and the Greeks apparently feel they'll get something positive later on to get the next tranche of aid. Housing Starts (+3.6% exp -3.7%) and Building Permits (-2.7% exp -2.9%) came in better than expected. Lacker is about to start speaking on monetary policy, EU finance ministers will be talking about Greece the Big Ben is speaking in NYC at 12:15 EST.

 

Here's a chart:-