Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

I day trade the emini using an 8 range chart, some technical indicators and follow the market generated information on a 15 min MP chart. I always spend considerable time over each weekend trying to do a top-down analysis of the market in ways that I follow the market to give me some guidance going forward into the next trading week. I share below that analysis which consists of a composite MP profile of the last auction from the June 3 low. Also included is a daily candlestick chart of the move with an Elliott wave count on it and Delta cycle points. I have tried to color code points of reference on both charts.

I am still trying to learn how to read these charts from behind the screen to determine what the market makers plans are in order to trade with them. They do control and move the market to their pocket books in their business plan.

I see a turn either in or upon us with the U.S. election this week. 1387.50 appears to me as a critical level to hold for a possible reversal. However as JD says .... but, ACH (Anything Can Happen) :-)

 

2012-11-03_0830 - slick60's library

 

Good trading folks

 

slick60

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the weekend I stumbled upon a site of Martin Cole's - Market Makers course. I totally believe in the markets being moved and manipulated by these traders, consortiums, banks et al and it is not paranoia on my part. If you believe other here is a snap of a bit of your competition.

2012-01-13_1625 - slick60's library

We had an interesting week behind us which was enhanced by Hurricane Sandy leading into the market makers' opportunity of N.F.P. day on Nov 2nd. I am sure these ruthless "B.....ds" licked their lips seeing the high probabilty chance of enhancement wreaking havoc during this week. I have tried to make some sense out of it in picture form below.

 

The set-up http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/1b42af50-ffc8-478e-998b-3bc4df7bbac5/2012-11-04_0907.png

 

The story 2012-11-04_0927 - slick60's library

 

Story re-told 2012-11-04_1003 - slick60's library

 

I hope I am able to use hindsight to to identify what is going on at the right side of the charts.

 

slick60

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
... I totally believe in the markets being moved and manipulated by these traders, consortiums, banks et al and it is not paranoia on my part....

slick60

 

Are you quite sure it is not paranoia? If your theory were true - then you would find nothing but major volume on one side so overwhelming the other side that the market would instantly move. And who would fill their orders? And the so called market consortium would have to exist and be trading in every related market simultaneously. That's just too incredible too accept.

 

I believe that there are large traders who are winning - and other large traders who are losing - Over time - most of the larger traders will win based on their edge - but they lose - sometimes - as often or more often than they win. I believe it is much harder to have a high win rate trading size than it is trading a 2 lot.

 

Beside - you don't need to resort to a "market manipulation" hyposthesis to understand the past several days trading.

 

Thursday saw short covering as the lows held and the news came out from Europe favourably and the larger positions had to be closed. This was evidenced by the "P" shape of the profile for Thursday.

 

Friday popped on the NFP but after it ran out of buyers the responsive selling came in targeting a gap fill, gained momentum to stop the overnight longs out who got squeezed and resulted in long liquidation with no one wanting to hold over a weekend in advance of the election. More of a "b" shape. There was not significantly higher volume early in the RH session on either day which suggested to me that the move would not continue.

 

As long at 1398.50 hold and we push back up - the ES 60 minute chart will be in a confirmed uptrend which could then lead to a change in the Daily from down back to up later in the week.

 

But seriously - do you think there are major players setting up longer term positoins in advance of Tuesday's results.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Are you quite sure it is not paranoia? If your theory were true - then you would find nothing but major volume on one side so overwhelming the other side that the market would instantly move. And who would fill their orders? And the so called market consortium would have to exist and be trading in every related market simultaneously. That's just too incredible too accept.

 

I believe that there are large traders who are winning - and other large traders who are losing - Over time - most of the larger traders will win based on their edge - but they lose - sometimes - as often or more often than they win. I believe it is much harder to have a high win rate trading size than it is trading a 2 lot.

 

Beside - you don't need to resort to a "market manipulation" hyposthesis to understand the past several days trading.

 

Thursday saw short covering as the lows held and the news came out from Europe favourably and the larger positions had to be closed. This was evidenced by the "P" shape of the profile for Thursday.

 

Friday popped on the NFP but after it ran out of buyers the responsive selling came in targeting a gap fill, gained momentum to stop the overnight longs out who got squeezed and resulted in long liquidation with no one wanting to hold over a weekend in advance of the election. More of a "b" shape. There was not significantly higher volume early in the RH session on either day which suggested to me that the move would not continue.

 

As long at 1398.50 hold and we push back up - the ES 60 minute chart will be in a confirmed uptrend which could then lead to a change in the Daily from down back to up later in the week.

 

But seriously - do you think there are major players setting up longer term positoins in advance of Tuesday's results.

 

Hey bakrob99.

I guess the short answer is YES!..You seem to have this down pretty good - lol. I am sure you sold the opening bell then on Friday RTH session and held for the day.

I personally feel you have to look also from the other side of the screen.

Take care and good trading to you.

 

slick60

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am sure you sold the opening bell then on Friday RTH session and held for the day

I'm not sure why you think my reply suggested anything about how I traded it. My setup was a short from 1429 to the gap fill. Pretty straightforward. Didn't sell the high. And you didn't have to either to take a profit from the market.

 

I personally feel you have to look also from the other side of the screen.

I agree. I look at what other traders are doing - but frankly I don't think there is a conspiracy out to get me - and it wouldn't help my trading if I did. I might start to think that it was rigged, and I wasn't responsible for my losses etc... .blah de blah. I am not going down that route. Any losses I take are my responsibility. As are any gains.

 

Take care and good trading to you.

Thank you. Same to you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone else ready to sell the pants off the market this week?

 

Personally, i'm looking for the market to push down to at least 1388 this week, possibly even down to 1380, though at that price i'd consider a counter trend trade long... and until the market retests the low of last week of 1393, I'd love to get short somewhere between 1418-1424.

 

So for monday, i'm looking for any excuse to get short until we hit 1393. I'll happily hold those shorts until we hit 1388. and if by some miracle we can get up to or above 1418 before we retest 1393, i'll go short even without an excuse.

 

anyone else care to speculate what this week may bring?

 

FTX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So BO back in the WH for a 2nd term. Only time will tell if it's good or bad for the markets. Draghi has been saying German economy is starting to suffer. German ind production did not impress earlier. European Commission cut growth forecasts. Lots of earnings out and due out after close. Crude inventories & US consumer credit due later. EU's Rehn and German Chancellor Merkel talking later. Greek MP's voting on austerity later.

 

As for the market, it seems to be one way then the other right now. Just when you expect a push it reverses back hard. Overnight high at 1431.75 and low at 1410.00 (current) and where we're likely to open fairly close to, suggests that perhaps higher prices have been tentatively rejected for now and so a test of recent lower value could well be next (a.k.a 1406.50. Above is still the 1417.75 area should we decide to test this move lower for conviction. Any move much lower and we have 1400.00, 1397.50/96.50 and 1384.75 as bigger targets (with others along the way). Above 17.75 would be 20.75, 28.00 then the overnight high 31.75 with higher target of 43.75.

 

Here's the chart:-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32673&stc=1&d=1352297619

2012-11-07.thumb.jpg.eada98a24e11d41d2b48716645f97d68.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So the question is what does this mean (or more accurately, what might it mean?)?

 

If OTF (other timeframe - i.e big longer timeframe players) were selling and persistent, there would be more consistent agreement with the volume delta. This DOES NOT mean that we can't go lower. It means that that possibly the selling is by shorter term players right now. The most important question is whether or not they will be joined by OTF or whether the lower prices will eventually be met with responsive buying.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
So the question is what does this mean (or more accurately, what might it mean?)?

 

If OTF (other timeframe - i.e big longer timeframe players) were selling and persistent, there would be more consistent agreement with the volume delta. This DOES NOT mean that we can't go lower. It means that that possibly the selling is by shorter term players right now. The most important question is whether or not they will be joined by OTF or whether the lower prices will eventually be met with responsive buying.

 

Hi N

Since we are playing a zero sum game perhaps the OTF players are the ones who are accumulating the sells and building a nice long inventory for a sustained move north. Since the market has been jerked around on perception a lot in the recent past and that perception has been stretched it indicates to me a move north is not far off. With a little end of auction spike down we could get under way. I have not seen a 14 1/4 pt IB for some time. Will this set up our "b" pattern of the so called "long liquidation"?

 

slick60

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi N

Since we are playing a zero sum game perhaps the OTF players are the ones who are accumulating the sells and building a nice long inventory for a sustained move north. Since the market has been jerked around on perception a lot in the recent past and that perception has been stretched it indicates to me a move north is not far off. With a little end of auction spike down we could get under way. I have not seen a 14 1/4 pt IB for some time. Will this set up our "b" pattern of the so called "long liquidation"?

 

slick60

 

I don't know. Today so far we are trending although there have been several places where I felt they were trying to stage a reversal. My feeling is that there is a 'forcing action' in the market and it's trying to make other players capitulate. That would be the spike you're looking for potentially but it's difficult to be certain either way. It will be interesting to watch for the spike (possibly just happened) then see what subsequent action is like. :missy:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just doing a chart there to show the (counter) rotations of 3 points or greater today and we broke the biggest made earlier in the session! Anyway, here's the chart:-

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=32678&stc=1&d=1352307179

 

This is important considering we got to the extended target I mentioned earlier on the low side and moved pretty cleanly away. Not to say we couldn't test lower later on but we could stage a better attempt to retrace now. Just one possibility and ach. Remember that we are still effectively trending lower.

2012-11-07_4.thumb.jpg.b1b7794ab07f354ef608deeaef64e953.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Quantower
      The main goal of this thread is to show what Power Trades is and how it works in different markets. We will show some patterns on the ES and NQ futures, as well as discuss possible improvements to this functionality.
      What is Power Trades?
      Ok, first we will consider what the Power Trades is and how it finds zones.
      Power Trades shows the zones with the execution of a large number of orders in a very short time, which will affect the price change with a high probability.
      Here are a few examples of how it looks like


      How it finds zones?
      There is a continuous process of placing, changing and executing orders in the market. All this affects the price change and the expectations of traders regarding the future price.
      When a large order appears at a certain level, the price is more likely to come to this order and it will be executed because the market is always looking for levels with liquidity. This already applies to the order flow and the mechanics of orders matching, so we will omit the principles on which the orders are matched.
      It is only important to understand that "abnormal events" occur in the market at certain times. Execution of a significant volume of orders in a very short time is one of such events.
      The Power Trades Scanner has several important settings that directly affect the results:

      Total Volume — the minimum value of the volume that should be traded during the specified time interval
      Time Interval, sec — the time over which the Total Volume should be traded
      Basis Volume Interval, sec — this parameter shows how much % took the traded volume in the total volume for the specified time.
      Zone Height, ticks — this parameter will show only those zones where the height is less than or equal to the specified value (in ticks).
      Level2 level count — the number of levels that are involved in the calculation of Imbalance and the Level 2 Ratio column in the table of results.
      Filter by Delta,% — the parameter will show zones that have a delta value greater than or equal to that specified in the setting. The value must be specified by the module, so the table will show both positive and negative delta values. We recommend paying attention to the zones with the delta above 50% (taking into account the specifics of each trading instrument).
      For example, let's set the Total Volume of 2000 contracts and Time Interval in 3 seconds on the E-mini SP500 futures. This means that the scan will be based on the available history and will show on the chart only those zones that have such a volume for the specified time.

      Additionally, it is worth to set a delta value to filter out the zones with one-side trades. The more delta value, the high probability that the price will reverse.

      So, as a starting point about this scanner, I think this information will be enough
    • By makuchaku
      Hi everyone,
      This is my maiden analysis using volume profile - so please don't hesitate to share your feedback.
      As per the attached analysis, I think that SPY is primed for a short - for many reasons
      - Multiple strong rejection of long positions exist at Resistance R1 and R2 : seems like sellers defending their positions
      - Very strong short volume seen at R2 : further signifying sellers who are ready at that level
      However, once the price reaches Support S1, there seems to be a strong buying sentiment which has rejected previous shorts. You can see trading ranges & pullbacks to S1 where buyers and sellers seem to agree on a price range, often leading to a buyer dominance.
      What do you think?

    • By TraderJoe
      Hey All,
      does anyone sell Volume Profile Indicator for NT8.
       
      Regards
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • CVNA Carvana stock, nice top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
    • GDRX GoodRx stock, good day, watch for a bottom range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?GDRX
    • Date: 14th February 2025.   Can The NASDAQ Maintain Momentum at Key Resistance Level?     The price of the NASDAQ throughout the week rose more than 3.00% to bring the price back up to the instrument’s resistance level. However, while taking into consideration higher inflation, tariffs and the resistance level, could the index maintain momentum?   US Inflation Rises For a 4th Consecutive Month The US Consumer Price Index, or inflation, rose for a 4th consecutive month taking the rate even further away from the Federal Reserve’s target. Analysts were expecting the US inflation rate to remain unchanged at 2.9%. However, consumer inflation rose to 3.00%, the highest since July 2024, while Producer inflation rose to 3.5%. Higher inflation traditionally triggers lower sentiment towards the stock market as investors' risk appetite falls and they prefer the US Dollar. However, on this occasion bullish volatility rose. For this reason, some traders may be considering if the price is overbought in the short term.   Addressing these statistics, US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Fed has yet to achieve its goal of curbing inflation, adding further hawkish signals regarding the monetary policy. Other members of the FOMC also share this view. Today, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, stated that the Fed is unlikely to implement interest rate cuts in the near future. This is due to ongoing economic uncertainty following the introduction of trade tariffs on imported goods and other policies from the Republican-led White House.   Most of the Federal Open Market Committee emphasizes additional time is needed to fully assess the situation. According to the Chicago Exchange FedWatch Tool, interest rate cuts may not start until September 2025.   What’s Driving The NASDAQ Higher? Earnings data this week has continued to support the NASDAQ. Early this morning Airbnb made public their quarterly earnings report whereby they beat both earnings per share and revenue expectations. The Earnings Per Share read 25% higher than expectations and Revenue was more than 2% higher. As a result, the stock rose more than 14%. Another company this week that made public positive earnings data is Cisco which rose by more than 2% on Thursday. Another positive factor continues to be the positive employment data. Even though the positive employment data can push back interest rate cuts, the stability in the short term continues to serve the interests of higher consumer demand. The US Unemployment Rate fell to 4.00% the lowest in 8 months. Lastly, investors are also increasing their exposure to the index due to sellers not being able to maintain control or momentum. Some economists also increase their confidence in economic growth if Trump can obtain a positive outcome from the Ukraine-Russia negotiations.   However, during Friday’s pre-US session trading, 80% of the most influential stocks are witnessing a decline. The NASDAQ itself is trading more or less unchanged. Therefore, the question again arises as to whether the NASDAQ can maintain momentum above this area.   NASDAQ - News and Technical analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ is largely witnessing mainly bullish indications on the 2-hour chart. However, the main concern for traders is the resistance level at $21,960. On the 5-minute timeframe, the price is mainly experiencing bearish signals as the price moves below the 200-period simple moving average.   The VIX, which is largely used as a risk indicator, is currently trading 0.75% higher which indicates a lower risk appetite. In addition to this, bond yields trade 6 points higher. If both the VIX and Bond yields rise further, further pressure may be witnessed for index traders.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • LUNR Intuitive Machines stock watch, attempting to move higher off 18.64 support, target 26 area at https://stockconsultant.com/?LUNR
    • CNXC Concentrix stock watch, pullback to 47.16 triple support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?CNXC
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.